How I Think The Trump 'Game' Will Play Out

 Charges will occur over handling classified.  Court appearances for this won't occur until probably first quarter of 2023.  

One charge will be used and eventually stick with some type of conviction....with no jail-time.  Term of felony conviction will be used.

So by the end of 2023, as Trump would start to prepare for the primary period of 2024....at least eight states will have legislation that a convicted felony guy can't run (figure both California and NY state into the group of eight).

A group of at least twenty states will then come to say that if you decline Trump on the ballot, then there is no election for President possible, and offer the idea of no Presidential ballot period (meaning not Trump or the Democratic contender).

From the remaining twenty-odd states, this becomes a crisis period as they openly discuss the matter of invalidating the Presidential election.  

Under my scenario....the Electoral College situation falls apart, and the states send their delegations to January of 2025.....to vote state by state....where Trump wins.  

At least five states then contend that it's time to part ways as a nation, and the conflict just intensifies.