"Just Leave' Chatter

 As days lead onto weeks, and weeks onto months.....the war in the Ukraine continues.  

This week....the Finnish PM (Sanna Marin) was asked about how to end the war, and she had this simple quote: “The way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine. That’s the way out of the conflict.”

In truth, Putin has an agenda which has existed since the middle of 2021 in his mind.....that a little war can occur....territory can be taken, and the glory of the Putin-era can be 'crowned'.  Stuff of legends....so to speak.

Presently, I believe Putin still believes he holds some 'royal flush' in his hand at the poker table.  There may be 50,000 dead Russian conscripts in the mix, 700,000 Russians who've left the country, and a 20-year rebuilding (costly) campaign that the country really can't afford.....but there's some propaganda 'pay-off' once the Ukrainians just say they surrender.

This week, the Nobel Peace Prize guys decided to get into the middle of this, and awarded the Peace Prize to a Russian group (anti-Putin folks).....who promptly found that their headquarters in Moscow has been confiscated by the state for illegal existence.

There are three things that I'm waiting on to play out:

1.  By Feb 2023, I expect around 10,000 of these newly drafted-up Russian reservists to walk up with white flags and surrender in the Ukraine. It'll probably reach a stage where buses will be at the Ukrainian border, and hauling the guys (now in some sports gear instead of military gear) off to France and Germany where they are given some asylum paperwork.  Their families will be quietly accepted as part of the deal (my bet).

2.  Alcoholism will be 'branded' as the major problem in the activation of the 300,000 reservists arrive and are unable to function in daily warfare or military lifestyle....without a significant amount of booze.  

3.  Some Russian journalists will stumble upon the problem of a dozen commanders per week being killed by their own men, and get lectured by Moscow that you can't talk or mention this ongoing problem.

There's going to be a 'legend' written at the end of this war, but it won't be very kind to Putin's belief in himself.