Homework Chatter

 I saw this California story today....over a draft bill....AB2999.  The bill more or less.....says there's too much homework, and teachers need to craft homework to be LESS.  

Trigger here?  The idea is.....too much stress for kids.

I pondered over this.  As a kid in rural Alabama...at best, I had about 45 minutes of homework per day dumped on me.  But with a pause here and there....I'd done about 20 minutes of this before leaving school at 3PM.  The rest I did by 9 PM that night.

So I'm wondering....are they dumping three hours of homework on kids in California?  Are kids too busy to do homework?  

Just begs a lot of questions.

The Banking 'Issue'

 The simple nature of this banking 'problem'?

Well....you have a bank that thought commercial real estate....from hotels to malls...could be built, developed and operated...paying back the bank for its involvement in acceptable risk.  

So Covid came along, and whatever strategy existed for office buildings, theaters, hotels, stores, or even bank buildings themselves....could not focus and carry on....paying the bank loan back.

The bank's problem?  Well...it was now stuck with a structure of a present value (say $10-million) when the bank loan from 2018 (20 years) was for $60-million.  Selling it for faked-up value?  Now impossible.

Then you add the car problem....where people were convinced that a $80k car was reasonable, and over eight years of your stable job situation....you could pay the loan back.  Well....that strategy also went south.

The bank recovers the $80k 2-year old car, which probably is worth $45k max at present, but the loan money missing is $12,000.  The used car market presently?  That's also part of the story....so the car probably won't sell for more than $40k.

Credit card also in the mix?  Yes.    Some folks stand there with $20,000 in debt, and can't make the minimum of $1,000 a month.  

Home loans?  Same story.

Cities with loans?  If you had 40-odd businesses shut down over the past year.....you probably aren't making as much on property tax or sales tax.  

Did we have this type of mess in 1929?   No.  That bank failure era was mostly due to mismanagement of the vault contents.....with the bank books and the contents not being equal.  

FDIC having the assets to cover this?  No. 

What I tend to expect?  Three things:

1.  I expect some rushed-up meetings with the Fed and the White House....probably by early July.  The Fed will quietly admit a minimum of 20 bank failures to arrive by the conclusion of July.

2.  I expect the full point lessen on the prime rate.....to simply speed things up on the collapse.

3.  At some point in mid-July, I expect a Monday night live speech by the President to reassure the public. 

4.  Shortly after the speech....I expect gold and Bit-Coin to jump in a massive way.  At this point, more than 40-million Americans will attempt to remove cash from their accounts....ONLY to find that there is a cash-limit of $250 per day, and $750 per week.

5.  I expect by mid-August....more than half the banks in the US are under some type of review and reorganization.  

By this point, President Biden will admit that there is a limit to what can be done, and that Treasury notes apparently can't be marketed now.....because consumers don't consider them to be trusted.

Trying to scare people?  No....just reviewing 1929 history, and things appear in some similar nature.  

Beep-Beep Story

 California has a draft bill (SB 961) which basically says....if you sell a new car in the state, it has to have the technology to track the GPS location, the speed on that road, and to have a warning 'sound' to tell you that you've exceeded the limit by 10 mph.

I'll just say if you went to most car companies....they have the general tracking technology already, but you'd have to pay 'extra' for the detailed map which has up-to-date speeds.  As for the warning sound?  It's probably a 8-minute problem for some Japanese guy to wrap up.  

The question is....would you really want to pay extra for the monthly updates to the map technology, and do you really need a 'beep' to tell you that you exceeded the limit?

Would the beep sound eventually be replaced by some tune....like 'Highway to Hell'?

All of this just adding to the average cost of a car?  Well....yeah, that does seem to be the path.

Who Is Lee Oswald Today?

 My 2024 version of 1963's Lee Oswald?

He's a vet...probably having done a couple of years in the Army.  He's probably from some urban situation of the 2010 era.  

He ended up recruited by some foundation group that has some Republican agenda, and has been paid on various occasions to don a 'uniform', and carry Americana flags while wearing sunglasses.

About once a month, some guy from the foundation group comes by and leaves $3,000 in a cash envelop....for work accomplished.

On his social media page....he's anti-Biden...pro-Trump.  

He's lived in five or six locations since leaving the Army, and is on some medication for anxiety and panic issues.  He hasn't been on a date since 2019.  He games in his spare time.

The CIA/FBI have used in twenty different activities since Covid.  

Oswald-Like Scenario For Joe Biden?

 I paused over this idea for the past weekend.

The way it would work....about a week prior to the convention....with President Biden on a speech-tour....a MAGA-character would attempt to take down the President.  

Based on a CIA-FBI plan....this MAGA individual would be shot in the process to ensure the story does not unfold. 

There would be a fake Twitter account, which this person seems  very active for the past year....making  radical pro-Trump statements.

The original plan would be told to Biden, that  they would stop the guy before it got real serious.  But I suspect the Fed agenda would be to have Joe Biden out, Harris in, and the Convention is a replacement 'game'.

Turbo Week: 19 Aug 2024

 We are about 100 days away from the Democratic Convention in Chicago....scheduled for 19 August.

I suspect this will end up being more of a circus show, with massive violence, and news journalists mostly confused over what they see and think.

Delegates in a state of fear?  Yeah, and it's possible that a hundred of them decide by the evening of 19 August....to pack up and exit Chicago as the sun rises on 20 August.

An Expelled Story

 Back in the late 1980s....I worked under a senior officer in the Air Force who had a niece, and about once a month....he would relate the newest 'woes' of the college-age gal....in some Ohio public university.

Over the course of a year (I seem to remember this was the 2nd year of her adventure in college)....she'd been detained by the local police on three occasions (all alcohol-related, with minor damage to some bar/restaurant)....the niece's dad got dragged into a pay-up situation....around $4,000 in damages and court fees.  

At some point after that....there was some drunken fight in the dorm and the college finally called up dad and said 'finished'.  There had been apparently a warning or two issued prior to this....which dad was unaware of.  Dad came....picked up the daughter, and retreated to the house to restructure the situation.

Some alcohol rehab followed, and dad's plan to enroll her into another state public university had a problem.  As you apply and lay out what you see as a transfer....they will ask for the transcript, and the reason for the transfer is listed.  The new college said 'no'.....basically, they didn't want the trouble.

So a new application to yet another college was attempted....same story.

Three months pass then with no update from my boss....then he talks over the latest news....that the gal has been accepted into a private small college, with most all of the 2nd year required as a 'repeat' (meaning a 5th year required).  The selling point?  Well....this was in a no-name town with marginal alcohol opportunities.  

It was with this story that I realized that colleges do have a 'weapon' to use with problem-children, and rarely do people ever grasp that.

The Last Time I Went To A Red Lobster Restaurant

 The last time?  Probably in mid-summer 1992.

To be honest, I wasn't impressed and the place was mostly run by a couple of college kids as management, with 17-year old kids as the primary crew.

I read this AM....Red Lobster is up for bankruptcy, unless they find a new owner.  

I didn't know it....they've been around since 1968.  

How they fell apart?  Well....it goes to some idea that they could offer something called 'endless-shrimp' for a special price, and customers went overboard....with management really not grasping the cost impact. 

'Baby Reindeer' Viewing

 This week, I sat and watched the first episode of 'Baby Reindeer' on Netflix.  It's a UK production....total of 7 episodes.

To give the basic script (from a true story)....Brit start-up comedian has come to London....found no fame....ends up in a bar as a bartender, and bumps into this crazy (5-star) gal who turns out to be a stalker.

Comedy?  Well....there's a laugh or two about every ten minutes, but this is a fairly complex drama piece and you just start shaking your head.

The gal portraying the stalker?  Jessica Gunning, and she ought to get an Oscar for her part.

Yesterday, I finished up the 7th episode.  

Yeah, it's one I would recommend....but on the weird-level?  I just can't think of TV series that can rate with Baby Reindeer.   

Three Things I Haven't Figured Out

 1.  I watch a fair amount of the college student 'protest-action', and find it rather odd....they are camping out at the university instead of sleeping in their on-campus dorm, or off-campus apartment.  

But adding to this....all these tents are ultra-expensive North Face type tents ($700 type....not the $99 type that most of us would buy for a weekend camp-out).

It also appears odd.....no drugs or booze in the camping situation.  

Something ain't right.

2.  If you had 'real' money in a 401k or mutual fund situation....this chatter by President Biden on increasing the capital gains tax....ought to scare the crap out of you.  

If you tried to ask him how they came to this decision?  I don't think he can give you a single detail of the decision process.

3.  If you were unhappy, and changed genders.....finding a year later....that you were still unhappy....what's next?

I just look at this reality where people think their gender selection is the source of their unhappy nature, and wonder what solution number two....will be in this odd trend?

Law Story

 I sat and read through a regional piece this AM.....Oklahoma Senate has decided to draft up a law which would make illegal immigration a state crime and require them to exit the state permanently (yeah, you couldn't come back).

Legal?  Well....lets say Jose has been kicked out, and goes to NY....gets some type of Biden-blessing and is given a fed 'green-slip' to be legal.  Would the Oklahoma law still prevent them from entry?

This whole discussion?  If you had stood up in 1975 and said it'd be necessary to talk about this and draft up a law with such wording....people would have laughed.

To be challenged by the Biden Justice Department?  I would imagine a whole team will be brought in to fight this.

Future Reality

 Brit Sun newspaper came out with a piece and suggested that within ten years....humans will be sexing-up with robots.

Not a lot of facts....just suggestive.

What I do believe is that both men and women will relationship-up with virtual partners....having 3-hour conversations after they get home from work....feeling zero need for physical relationships.

By 2030....at least 10,000 people will be in this mind-set.  By 2040....probably 1-million will engaged in this new reality.

At some point, your virtual 'lady' ('Mandy') will monitor your meals, your refrigerator, grocery-shopping list (even ordering), monitoring your car repairs/budget/vacation travel, and arranging entertainment. 

'Mandy' will count your calorie....encourage weight loss....select your clothing style....act jealous on occasion...recite poetry....ask why you were late coming home....and be corrupted by evil Russian hackers.

The Large Groups Problem

Around my fourth year in the Air Force....I came to some conclusion one day....that probably a quarter of the people you rely upon (both enlisted, officers, and generals)....were not that capable in what you expect of their ability.

 Eventually, I came to this quote by George Carlin and it perfectly matched my attitude about managers, leaders and bosses.

In fact, I came to some point in my forties....where I realized that smart people figured out an exit-or-new-path plan....where they managed their own group of people.  They found success.

I watched a video piece this week....by a Australian police chief...warning people that if you spread fake news around, you'd get into police-trouble.  If you wanted factual data....you needed to just ask the police and they would be the 'owners' of truth.  I pondered this for a while....thinking that politicians in Australia are basically outdated at this point....you just need a full-time police presence to run everything.

It is a strange world that we live in presently.....thank goodness we have stupid people in charge.

College Degree Chatter

 

I worked with a guy (divorced) who was paying for his one and only daughter's college.  

Along about the middle  of the 2nd year,  she came over to Germany for the Christmas vacation and spent it with Dad.  

So this odd discussion came up.  She'd talked to two friends who'd finished up college and gone out with their degrees (this was about 2002), and found that whatever they'd majored in....was worthless on the pay-scale and finding employment.

My co-worker talked to someone who was a expert on this business, and they agreed to spend an hour talking to the daughter.  The daughter shifted her focus, and lined up a different degree path....adding an extra semester onto the situation.

I looked over this presentation by CNBC and readily agree....there's a fair number of disenchanted folks....who fall into this problem now.  The trouble for colleges?  Eventually, I think that a dozen degree paths are going to fall apart, with professors given a 'exit-door'.  

The Problem About The 'Send-Them-A-Message-Crowd'

 Back in the 2004-to-20010 era....I became aware of  a large segment of American society who wanted to send 'a-message'.  The receiver?  Banks, economists, politicians in DC, news journalists, state officials, social media, intellectuals, etc.

So when 2016 came up....I saw Hillary Clinton's entire theme and message in trouble.  Trump was to be this 'send-a-message' theme.  It didn't matter if half his positions were traditional Democratic positions.  His position on NAFTA being a failure and harming Americans?  Well....Hillary couldn't grasp how the mess had screwed over working-class Americans.

The 2020 election and Joe Biden?  The receiver-crowd thought that all the crap that they'd dump between 2017 and 2020....would have dissolved the 'send-a-message' crowd.  It didn't work.

Since 2021 with President Biden?  He's had 3-plus years to present a clear 'I-got-the-message' and generally failed.  Even on the migration business and potential to get illegals in to vote....all that did was trigger another five-odd-million generally-attracted-to-Biden voters (mostly blacks in big cities) to getting into a 'give-them-a-message' reality.

The mess with RFK Jr running?  Well....if you were disturbed with Biden and Trump....RFK is a natural at the 'send-them-a-message' theme.

The failure of the political folks to grasp how the 'send-them-a-message' business works?  This is odd part of the discussion.  You get the impression they believe the message business is a fad, and will eventually dissolve.  Nothing yet has shown that might happen.

About The Dead NYC 'Fire-Guy'

 

From the guy-setting-himself-on-fire-in-NY-City yesterday.....this picture was taken a few minutes before he lit up.

His message?  Well.....Biden and Trump are both in some coup attempt (fascist-coup).

I paused over this.

Without knowing anything else on the guy....on my master-conspiracy-index (1-to-100)....I'd index the guy at 95.

Who has conspiracy ideas that involve Trump and Biden together?  Well....I usually view a lot of news and at least will listen to various conspiracies.  Frankly, I can't come up with a single source who  believes one central fascist coup group....consisting of both Trump and Biden 'camps'.

The fact that the guy resides in St Augustine, FL?  Well....Florida folks generally believe a lot of oddball things....which about half of them often turn out half-true.

So my thinking is....lets discount the guy is crazy, and ponder upon the idea that people behind Trump/Biden (not themselves)....have set up some 1,200-page script for 2025 where the nation undergoes some massive civil spiral...meaning that both groups of enthusiasts are charged up for a coup-like event.  

I'm left to two ways of viewing this.  Either this guy (dead now) was a paranoid schizophrenic....or he got onto some wild conspiracy group who have figured out the script to the coup. 

My Feeling Of The Biden 'Uncle Bosie' Story

Getting to the basic story.....President Biden's uncle Bosie...was in WW II, and near the end....he ended up on a flight in the Pacific....crashing in some area where they had cannibals.  The legend of Bosie...is that he came up missing when rescue folks arrived and there has been this belief within the Biden family that maybe he made it out....swam out.....only to be caught by the cannibals.

To be honest.....no one much has ever heard the story before.  

The general location?  New Guinea. To be honest....at  least in that era....yeah, there were a few cannibals around in the region.

The story is just number 346 that he's told over the past four decades that might not be totally true (meaning fabricated to some degree).  

The problem I see?  Some gifted writer will be inspired and write some Captain Bosie WW II type story....crashing in a cannibal island area, and trying to survive for weeks without getting captured by the Japanese or cannibals.  

Commission Chatter

 I sat and and read through a short piece on California and Governor Gavin Newsom.  So the Governor feels that as the new $20-an-hour wage rate occurred....some funny things happened....some fast-food restaurants closed down....some shops cut 10-to-20 percent of their work-force, and menus for the most part escalated on cost.

To the word by the Governor is that a commission must be formed to find out what happened here.

In the mix of words....he also wants to know how replacing employees with robots fits into this whole 'mess'.

Who is on the commission?  Unknown.  Would the commission people have any restaurant or business experience?  No one says that.  What political nature would the members of the commission be?  Unknown, but if you asked me.....they have to be 'friends' of Gavin....therefore....Democrats.

My guess is that the commission members will rent a van or two....drive off to six to ten communities in the state, and spend a month asking questions.

In the end....they will likely admit three things to Governor Newsom.

1.  That the intended idea of fixing one single element of the state's businesses....actually has triggered a across-the-board problem...where virtually everyone is demanding $20-an-hour.

2.  Yeah, that robots are the only way to prevent $25 Big-Mac menu dinners.

3.  Yes, there probably are 10,000 former employees looking for fast-food jobs....because they got laid off.  

Personally, it begs the question....did Governor Newsom and crew ever think much over implications and consequences?  And then the question comes up....does this guy really show the talent to be President?

Manifesto People

So I gazed over this story from yesterday....18-year-old high school student....transman....arrested and charged up over plans to shoot up a Montgomery County, Maryland school. 

The key thing in this designed shooting operation?  A129-page manifesto.

I'm often amazed by manifesto people....the folks who write 100...200...300...400...pages of manifesto material.

I can sit and probably write 100 to 150 lines of material, then gradually get 'tired' and end it there.

Looking over this story....18 years old....they will drag this kid into an adult court and I would imagine a deal can be made...admit to X, Y and Z....go off for six years of prison and get out in 5 years. Men's prison?  Well....yeah, that would have to be the 'trick', if you were a trans-guy.

Manifesto people tend to have three major issues....(1) they want to fix the world. (2) Fixing in their mind is complicated.  (3) Violence of some nature tends to be somewhere in the solution.  

Just seems like someone should stand up and tell the manifesto people....go and write whatever you want, but just get to the key statement in three pages, and allow for solving some mess without violence or taxation.  

Climate Doom List

 Rainy?  Doom.

Sunny? Doom.

Cloudy?  Doom.

Chilly?  Doom.

Cold?  Doom.

Windy?  Doom.

Snowy?  Doom.

Draft Bill

 I sat and read over this piece in the AM.....California lawmaker proposing bill SB 1403.

The idea?  The bill would create a state a 'Genealogy Office' which would help identify residents who have some type of 'genuine' descendant status of being a slave and therefore....at some point....get state benefit payouts (at least they hint of this).

This guy?  Steven Bradford, a Democratic state Senator for LA County.

I pondered over this.

So lets say for one moment that 1,000 blacks show up on day one and fill out the forms (I assume it's a 7-odd page form), and somewhere on line 15....there's some question to name your great-great-grandma...who existed around 1860....in Georgia (not California).   

So, what legit paperwork will identify Grandma X...as the slave, and how will you provide your descendant status since 1865?

You got papers?

What if you were white, but you have evidence of great-great-grandma Sarah....was the full-up daughter of a slave on the Georgia plantation?  Maybe you even have papers to show Sarah as a 50-50 descendant-slave status.....would this California office certify you?

What if you and the last five generations of the family....have never been to California?

What if you were black, but actually your one single slave status relative....some guy who arrived in 1720....got unslaved after two years, and lived 'free' in the woods of northern New York?

I just see a office with forty-odd people fumbling around and realizing they've got a pretty big mess to explain.  

'Lost' Money

 I sat and read through four issues yesterday:

1.  The US gov't gave Ukraine around $6.2 billion dollars last year....if you asked how it was spent?   No one has any idea.

2.  Over the past five years....the state of California went and spent $24 billion dollars on homelessness, but they can't really tell you how even a nickel of the money was spent.

3.  Yearly, the Pentagon spends just over $2.3 trillion dollars, yet they also can't say much over how it was spent.

4.  Our US Treasury spent around $5 trillion dollars over Covid spending, but if you asked how it was spent....they have no idea.

I pondered these issues.  I can ask my wife (German nature) about grocery spending and where 250 Euro went last week, and she'll identify each item  in the cart and roughly what they cost.  If you asked me about all my new tire purchases from the past 10 years....I can pull out the receipts and tell you down to the last cent what I spent.

So I'm not really buying into the 'lost' nature of money and how you just pretend there's no paperwork/receipts.  

Ten Things I Expect By The End Of 2025

 1.  At least 3,000 Americans will identify as vampires.

2.  At least 1,000 Americans will be certified dead....due to their E-car running out of fuel in an emergency situation.

3.  Some evidence will come out to suggest a Sean 'Diddy' Combs connection to Hunter Biden.

4.  WNBA figures will demand that the NBA double their 'gift-money' to the league.  NBA players will draw and a line and say 'NO'.

5.  Talk will start up about developing a Transwoman hockey league.

6.  At least one US state will pass a law requiring you to be age 25....before buying tobacco products.

7.  At least one US state will approve a law to have 3-some marriages.

8.  Some 11-year-old kid will go to court to demand a name change to 'Hitler'.

9.  At least 5 US states will demand the federal government get out of student loans, or limit them to no more than $5k a year.

10.  Some teacher from Georgia will admit to having physical relations with two dozen students over a 1-year period.   It'll later be discovered that she was doped-up and just imagining the sex. 

Four Things I Tend To Believe

 1.  This Sean 'Diddy' Combs raid and the involvement of Homeland Security?

The story goes that most of his rooms in the California mansion (probably going back to the mid-1990s)....were rigged with cameras.  So he's had around 25 years to collect up blackmail video on various sports figures, politicians, religious figures and 'princes' (that came out two weeks ago....plural....meaning more than 1 prince).

So what I tend to believe....'Diddy' had power to control outcomes.  I think he has stuff on three central characters.  First being some female politician who probably holds a VP position.  Second being a male California politician who likely comes up in the 2024 election.  Third being a son of a Delaware politician who might be President.

I think Diddy indicated some 'favors' were in order, and some DC figures suddenly came to realize how Diddy had stacked the deck.

(I also have this working theory that Prince Harry was introduced to Meghan via one of these parties)

2.  Some poll was done....with only 52-percent of Biden-2020 voters thinking he's done well in the job.  The other 48-percent?  They say he hasn't delivered.

I tend to believe that almost one-third of Biden-2020 voters will either stay home or vote RFK Jr......with the case of staying home...hurting the party at large (House/Senate seats).

For this reason, I suggest it's a 99-percent chance that he is replaced at the convention.

3.  Generally, when you suggest an equity of outcome.....you will end up with people so disenchanted....that they will marginally do their job (just 'enough' will be popular to utter).

4.  If we emerge out of the Democratic National Convention with Joe Biden/Kam Harris....with no changes...same speech....same hype as 2020, then I see RFK Jr getting one-third of Joe's 2020 votes, and Trump wins.

Yes, to get any other outcome....Joe Biden has to be out of the picture.

Statistical Average of Iran Attack on Israel Last Night

Well....you add it up....170 Shahed drones, 30 cruise missiles, 120 ballistic rockets. 

99-percent were unable to arrive.  Meaning they were intercepted.

How the missile/drone guys explained to the clerics?  I'm not sure.  They probably made up a story, or just said all of them fell on Israel ground.

More action?  Well....each one amounts to some kind financial cost factor.  Maybe this show was a one-and-done situation.

The Thing About Iran

 For a number of years in Iran....things were run by intellectual folks under the 'king' (the Shah)...from 1941 to 1979.  

From 1979 on....things were run by a Islamic cleric 'council'.  So the guys in charge of the  economy, banking, sports, the police, energy, military structure, street repairs, gas and oil production, tourism, and 'whatever'.....were basically clerics.  

Their chief guidance?  Well...they can quote from the Quran.  Beyond that....their knowledge base would be that of a ice cream stand operator.

So you can imagine, for forty-plus years....the crew in charge has bumbled around and screwed up.

Last year, I was reading a summary of problems by a Iranian businessman.  He (since 2000) had been assessing his monthly profit.  He quietly took the profit and converted it into non-Iranian currency (literally anything other than the Rial).  If you do the math today.....you can buy with one dollar.....42,000 Rial.  In this guy's case....it doesn't matter if he's buying gold, Bitcoin, dollars, Euro....he's screwed.  Literally, nothing goes into a bank....in his case.  

He suggested the whole country is sitting and waiting for some major event to clobber the economy and force the dynamic change to occur.  

Here's the odd factor....this lack of trust means that Iranian banks who need cashflow....can't build up any sum....to act as a mortgage unit and loan out housing money.  If you were a 30-year old Iranian guy....married, and wanting to buy your first house/condo....you can't find any bank that wants to deal with you because they have very limited funds to loan out.  The typical game today?  You get invited to sign up for a home loan, but need around a couple of year of putting money in...before they loan you money out for the home purchase.

I would imagine if you explained this to a cleric....they'd just stand there and ask....what the hell would  you want me to do?  Restore confidence?  How?

So the clerics....day after day....are just mostly gathering around the 'cooler'....sipping tea....talking over Muhammad quotes, and faced with guiding a country without much knowledge or skill.

The military this morning...having to report the success (or really lack of success) with the attack on Israel last night?  I would imagine they quote something of a religious statement....saying God misguided their rockets, missiles and drones in some way.  The cleric has to react to the sarcastic comment, and likely agree.

It is a Monty Python-like comedy....just funny in an odd way.

Surgery Chatter

 I sat and read over this piece....trying to grasp the whole intent.

Best I can say....it is an Ontario person....an Ontario court, and I have some doubts that the success this person anticipates....won't occur.

As for how they identify themselves after surgery?  Well....it's anyone's guess.

Cost factor?  No one really says much over that.  I'm guessing it's in the $25,000 range or more.  The thing I'd mostly worry about....getting various infections out of the hospital unit after they wrap it all up.

This infection worry is the chief thing that keeps me always a bit worried in general.  Me ever checking in for anything?  It'd have to be an awful pain to get me to accept infection risks.  Yeah, it's to the level of being a phobia.

I live over by a major German hospital....that had a serious reputation for infections with incoming 'customers'.

For some reasons, I suspect this person....within a year or two....will be asking  to 'fix'  whatever was done and  won't be able to find a doctor willing to take on the case.

Eight Things I Expect In 2025 (By End Of The Year)

 1.  The House and Senate will attempt to halt all college loans, or limit what you can take each year ($10k or less).  Colleges will go into a massive fit over this legislation talk.

2.  Both the Army and Air Force will be forced to trim units existing because of a lack of manpower.  Both will discuss a $100,000 benefit (cash, zero-taxation) if you agree to sign up and stay for eight years.  

3.  The state of California, in need of cash to pay for operations....will turn to bank loans....discovering that no one will deal with them unless they agree to a 8-percent pay-back situation....meaning even more debt.

4.  Over 300 8-story or more commercial buildings throughout the US will be empty and unable to rent space.  A discussion to convert these to condo-housing will occur. Research will prove this unfeasible because no one has capital/mortgage potential...to buy such units....because they lack jobs.

5.  A week-long state-wide strike will occur in California in early 2025....over all other industries in the state should be paying $20 an hour.  Within six weeks....two additional states will face state-wide strikes with the same discussion.

6.  Evidence will be presented that the FBI/NSA....has secret blackmail files on forty-odd Senators/House members.  

7.  CNN, to meet revenue issues....offers Joe Rogan $300-million a year for a one-hour show nightly.  

8.  The AG and US Marshalls end up forming a 1,000 man force to go after New York City crime.  At least 200 other US metro cities ask for the same 'favor'.

My Gut Feeling On the OJ Case

 Odd how this comes up now....thirty years later.

First, I had the gut feeling that the cops gathering up evidence....did a 2-star job, and screwed up.

Second, that glove-business twisted the entire case around.

Third, had this been in any other state....I don't think the innocent situation would have been arrived at.

Fourth and final.....just an awful intense murder scene.  Robber would have stabbed/cut the guy, and ran quickly away.  Whoever murdered the two...had a strong desire to make it personal. 

Three Humble Thoughts

 1.  Dexter Reed shooting in Chicago.  I've watched the two-minute video over....maybe thirty times.  

The sole reason that the cops say they pulled him over?  Absence of Reed wearing a seatbelt.  

The action of Reed....rolling the window up as the cop approached?  It makes no sense....unless he'd been smoking a joint.

96 rounds fired?  That was the crazy part of the story.  Cops even suggest that Reed fired a couple....but one of the cops apparently shot around 50 rounds...meaning he reloaded at least three times.

Crazy confrontation.....just over a seatbelt issue.

2.  Trump now says NPR funding ends....as he becomes President.

NPR says 'fine'.....that they make enough off sponsor foundations to carry their message.

It's a bogus statement....in that the prime-receivers of the fed money for NPR....are the stations themselves.  If the fed money goes away....the stations won't exist to carry the NPR product....thus it dissolves.

3.  Lot of chatter in the past month that the way that the economy grows jobs....is by Americans taking second jobs because the primary job is not solving the finance issues.  

Biden's crew realizing this?  Apparently, no. 

The California folks working at McDonalds with the $20-an-hour situation?  I would imagine that 10-percent of them work a 2nd job somewhere...because they still aren't making it.

Does It Really Matter Who Wins November's Election?

I paused over this thought the other day, and it's been on my mind a good bit.

The US economy is in serious trouble, and it probably doesn't matter who wins in November....either Trump or Biden....because the 'game' is so rigged up.

Facts:

1.  Back in January, Yahoo Finance wrote up a piece....roughly 8.7 million Americans working two jobs to make ends meet. Roughly five-percent of the nation.

2.  Brookings Institute reported late summer of 2023....around 7 million American men between 25 and 54....aren't working.  Zero interest, or they got a great sugar-mama to pay their bills.

3.  Automotive News: Summer of 2023....they reported rejections for car loans were at the 21.8-percent (highest rate reported).

4.  CNBC in the fall of 2023....reported that home loans were being denied....rate of 9.1-percent.

5.  I gazed at mortgage rates yesterday.  30-year fixed?  7.34-percent.  15-year fixed?  6.78-percent.  30-year VA?  6.70.

Everyone is freaked out over the rate, and it won't return to 4-percent.

6.  $18 for a Big Mac menu in California now? 

If you follow the $20-an-hour wage situation for restaurants...there's a few non-restaurant workers now saying it's NOT fair, and they want the same wage.

You are about to see this massive increase in cost across the state, and people suddenly saying...no thanks, we can't afford a $15 movie ticket, or a $24 car-wash.

Whoever wins in November is stuck with a massive and decade-long mess that cannot be resolved or fixed nationally.  Trying to compare it to 1929?  No....even 1929 would have some fixes that were possible (with the right people, not FDR). 

ID Story

 I sat last week and observed this story and it's been on my mind for several days.

For four years....almost every single day...there's been some dumbass event to unfold with either the Biden-team, Biden himself, or the campaign-staff folks.  

It was mildly this way in the Bush II years and maybe half-as-much with Obama.

Then I wondered about the ID thing...that if you were some black guy from NY City....if you go by what NPR says or any of the national news people....there's odds that you don't have an ID.  So you could not have attended the Bidden-Obama-Clinton fundraiser.

Getting this message via the news media?  That was a mistake.  

Business Model Chatter

 I took a business class while attending Louisiana Tech at night (while in the Air Force).  It was an interesting class because the professor (masters degree and all) had gone out five years prior with an idea....then failed miserably in 18 months.  He went through a learning process...writing up his own paper (30 pages) of where he went wrong in the process of building a business model.

He was brutally honest in the class....what he had been taught in the late 1960s for his degree...was great on paper, but in apply all that crap to reality, it was mostly worthless information.  It was stuff that college couldn't teach.

We spent 2.5 hours that night covering the singular topic, and I will admit....I had a lot of wise professors with Louisiana Tech...but this guy impressed me.

I left that night fairly well consumed on the topic of business models.  You have to have a written model in planning a business, and have an understanding of local/state taxes.  It impressed upon me....you have to account for sales taxes, property taxes, and the social security taxes of your employees.  You also have to plan out the cost of monthly operations with salary, and to be successful....you need plus-numbers.  

Meaning of plus-numbers?  You have to start out expecting dismal numbers for the first six months, and eventually see a trend developing where there is profit.  If at the first year concluding....this has yet to happen, you need to prepare for an end-process.

I sat this week looking at the California pursuit of $20-an-hour for restaurant workers.  Whatever business model they had for 2023....it's dissolved entirely now.

A burger operation now concerned?  If you had a burger-men dinner for $12 to $14 in 2023....under the new model.....you probably are selling the same menu for $16 to $18 now.  Figure the upswing on costs with taxation?  There's probably another 50-cents made for the state and local community.  

But here's the full impact....other folks (non-restaurant workers) now want the $20-an-hour deal.  Politicians?  Now in trouble.

People outside of California?  Well....they will want the $20-an-hour deal as well.  So at some point, you will see some Louisiana gas station, or some Alabama pancake 'house' doubling up their prices because their employees won't work for $15-an-hour anymore.....they want that California deal ($20).

Imagine driving up to bar where you used stop on Thursday nights after work....spending a couple of bucks on beer, and buying a $12 plate of food....but now....by the time you wrap up the beer, food and chatter with the buddies....you've spent $30. 

What I see coming?  I think a whole bunch of people are going to cut back on their budget, and just say 'no'.....they can't spend freely anymore.

That's the new reality.  And your business models?  Well....they will dissolve away. 

NPR Chatter

 

There was a fair amount of chatter yesterday across Twitter...over NPR.

The trend?  Well....'clicks' upon NPR-related stories are way down....probably by 60-percent.  

A key-player within NPR also admitted that a fair number of the employees are now far-left in political beliefs.

Fixable?  No.....you can't release or fire the group without a massive court episode.

From the 1980s through most of the 1990s....I listened to 30 min a day (mostly when jogging) on average of NPR.  Around 2004, I gave up on the network....considering more or less a propaganda organization.

My fix?  I'd go to the states and public stations that the US government finances (not NPR itself).....and just do a 50-percent cut on their money.  Then I'd tell them....each year....it'll be another 50-percent cut.  At that point, the listening audience within 3 years will be so dismal....that NPR will just dissolve itself.

Three Things You Eventually Figure Out

 1.  As grocery stores in metro areas of the US are experiencing serious theft problems...perhaps seeing $100,000 a day go out the door....they have to reassign a pricing scheme to make up for losses.  

So you have stores saying product X that was $7.99....throughout the US....is now $8.99.

The store in rural Tennessee without much theft?  Well....they simply you pass you to the $8.99 pricing, to help the poor store in SF with it's losses.

So you are paying for inflation, and for SF crime....even thought you've never been to SF.

2.  As much as wrestling is 'faked-up'.....it's now dawned upon 75-percent of the nation....that politics is equal to wrestling, and just as 'fake-up'.  When you see these interviews.....'Bulldog' and 'Rico' about to get rough on the announcer, and you then watch Senator 'Bulldog' and House member 'Rico'.....it's the same thing.

3.  A 75-year old guy who graduated ONLY from high school....would be considered at college-level today....because he's more 'gifted' and intelligent than the high school kid finishing school today.  So you pause over this, and why?

My View of the WNBA

 The first game I watched of WNBA (women's basketball) was around 2012 (12 years ago).  It was crappy play....both teams had one decent player each....the camera guys were careful not to show the stands.  I would imagine at best....maybe 5,000 folks in the arena.

Over the past year, I've watched probably six games of the Iowa women's team.  They were sharp....prepared, and the games were thrilling to view.

Based on perception....I think at least four of the national teams are more than capable of playing WNBA teams and most nights....beating them by ten points minimum.

The problem with the WNBA?  They just have never improved.  Each team  markets themselves with one pure star and the rest are just average players.

Attendance average?  5,000 to 8,000 per night.  You figure $30 per ticket (for the lesser seats)....so with 7,000 folks....you might have $210,000 made off tickets, and another $250,000 off drinks, food, and parking.  So a half-million per night.  

You go and pay the arena for heat, security.....then you pay for coaches, travel, hotels, and ref's...there's no doubt on my view.....the NBA has to be funneling a quarter-million each month for each team....to keep them surviving.

Five Things To Happen By 2030

 1.  The NCAA girl's basketball program will falter as trans-ladies arrive and demand entry.  

2.  The WNBA (women NBA program) will dissolve because trans-women arrive and demand to be on teams, with the LGTBQ-plus folks highly upset about this, and creating a massive dividend with lesbians throughout the US.

3.  Both the Air Force and Army will fail miserably in recruitment and attempt to get Congress to 'draft' people.  This will become a huge issue, with more than 75-percent of the public against it.

4.  The owners of Star Wars....shuts down production for a period of ten years....because of so many failed movies.

5.  Republicans start to bring up that so many blacks lack IDs....that they can't do banking business across the nation.  The news media will be forced to admit this is a bunch of BS.  

Clock Story

 

I paused over this story in the AM today.

Analogue clocks in schools are being eliminated...because kids can't read 'time'.

I pondered....what happened.

After I joined the Air Force, I sorta got into the 24-hour time business....so when you said 16:44....I knew immediately it was 4:44 PM. I even knew the 16:44 L (local time) versus 16:44 GMT (meaning hours ahead).

It wasn't rocket-science.

I stepped into a watch display area last year, and it's interesting how the bulk of watches (probably 60-percent) are still analog in terms of nature.

But if you look around at the 16-to-20 year old kids (male/female)....no one much is wearing a watch.  If you asked for the time....they'd pull out the smart-phone and cite the digital time displayed.

This happening in one single generation?  That's the odd thing.  

The Most Entertaining 5 Minutes of My Life

 About six years ago....I went to NY City....six days.

Around day 3, I walked into a Starbucks (near the Hotel Roosevelt).  Six ladies ran it.  

It hit me in the line (before I'd ordered) that all six had ear, nose, and lip piercings....to the extreme.  Tattoos?  Yeah....all  over their arms and necks.  From my imagination....I'm just guessing I asked.....each had at least 20-odd 'other' piercings/tattoos....in places I couldn't observe.

I order my coffee and stood there waiting.

I really wanted to take my camera out, and take pictures....but the risk factor of getting beat-up was too much.

You don't see this kind of thing in Alabama, or for that matter...in Germany.  In the 1970s....they could have hired out to traveling circus shows and charged folks $3 for a 3-minute viewing.

Ten Random Thoughts

 1.  This BS statement that the US/NATO will pursue getting Ukraine within their NATO structure?

First, it would have to be approved by all members of NATO.  I don't see Turkey or Hungary agreeing so it's a BS topic.

But adding to it....if I were Russia, I'd say you were now on the enemy list and send out 5,000 special forces personnel to crap up dams, railways, bridges, and nuke power plants....to send a message.

2.  This prosecutor character (Wade) out of Georgia seems to be in more trouble with the ex-wife, and being dragged back into court....over failure to pay bills.  

3.  This idea of naming Dulles Airport (Virginia) after Trump?  Well.....it got brought up this week in the House.

Here's the thing....if you asked 10,000 Americans where Dulles was located....95-percent would have no idea. While a major airport....it's also a unknown airport.

4.   Just odd...Fed still hinting of a rate cut by the end of 2024.  If you listen to business and banking folks....a quarter-point does NOTHING.  Even a half-point....does NOTHING.  So the Fed chatter?  Just BS?

5.  Just odd in Maryland, they keep talking about a tax hike in the state, and keep wondering why Republican interest for the Senate race is so high.

6.  Highest crime rate in NYC....in 20 years?  And the mayor says it's just a perception problem.  For the record, 386 murders in NYC for 2023.

7.  There's chatter going on in the Texas border region that the cartels are seeking intelligence on all the Sheriffs of the region....either to blackmail, or counter through intimidation.  

8.  These 5-star vacations that Biden went on....paid for by wealthy folks?  Well....he was supposed to....by law....report the cost to the gov't.  He skipped that....saying either he forgot, or that it was to be reported....sooner or later.

9.  You just keep looking for people and groups to unify under President Biden, and it seems like they walked off and don't feel unified.

10.  This Bird-Flu BS?  You better start to prepare for Covid II.  

Real World

 I gazed at the short story out of NYC, and was left to imagine the moment when the TSA guy hit the 'crown-jewels' of the translady, and how he showed his apology.

He could utter....'sorry, maam'.  He could have offered some ice to resolve the pain.  He could have offered some sympathy.

But it's an interesting scene....security checkpoint and some lady half-bent-over and sobbing and you passing by.....probably thinking the lady's aunt died or her husband left for the FEDEX-delivery-lady.  The reality is....her balls got whacked.

Doom Story

 

I paused over this story....over several sites this AM.  

"100 times worse than Covid."

The trouble here....after dealing with Covid and the political/economic affects, I'd say around sixty-percent of the country won't participate in another Covid-like experience.

Economically?  The nation is already in a dangerous recession situation, and if you invented another 2-year Covid-episode....it'd finish off probably two-third's of the banks in the nation.

Would you want Joe Biden steering this mess?  Probably not.

Just shaking my head....this won't work a second time.

TB

 Well....it's a curious development.  I'm guessing state authorities are talking to the Fed and asking for advice....with nothing being said or offered in terms of help.

If there are 55 just in Chicago, I'd guess in NYC....it's close to 200.  Across the US....it's probably in the 3,000 range.

As you bunk up a hundred guys/gals in some gym or open warehouse.....it'll just spread around.

In five years?  You probably will know at least one neighbor who got TB somewhere.  Funny how we thought we got rid of it.

Gen Z Problem

 

I sat and pondered over this item today.

Basically, Gen-Z people have a particular problem....when you (the non-Gen-Z'er) converse and say something (maybe 4 lines)....they pause over what you said and try to interpret the words and meaning.

They also try to establish if you said something harsh, critical or negative.  

It would be like some chimpanzee trying to review your actions as friendly or hostile, but having no clear ability to grasp much beyond you showing your teeth or offering them a banana.

So imagine yourself in a position where there's a 6-minute talk between you and the Gen-Z 'kid', and you see at least eight different facial expressions indicating they are reacting in some way in a frightened or negative way.  The 6-minute talk?  Well....it might have been about restocking the paper trays for the copy machines throughout the company floor, or ensuring the horses get fed by 4 PM.

Yeah, this is crazy stuff to realize, but it begs the question....how will they survive in the adult world?

Three Things

 1.  I noticed over the weekend...someone brought up a receipt issue from a fast-food burger place (Carls Jr).  They were asking at the clerk's point....if you were eating there or leaving with the food (bagging required). 

Once you established bagging required....they charged you 10-cents.  I assume for the paper-bag.

Yeah, this is how bad this whole dining out thing has gotten.

Would I pay for the 10-cents?  No.   I'd probably just carry some re-useable bag with me and throw the food in it.

Over a year?  Well....if everyone did that....like the Pizza Hut folks charging me 20-cents for the box, or BK charging 10-cents for the bag, or the donut-folks charging me 10-cents there.....I might go throw away $10 a year....for what was free before.

2.  Ten percent of society is probably walking around and wanting to share how their childhood and ancestral trauma fell apart (20 years ago) and is now responsible for their repressed guilt and rage. Other than talking continuously about it....consuming drugs and alcohol, there's not much hope for them ever being 'fruitful'.

3.  There's a bill (draft currently) floating around Vermont right where...if passed....it would mandate that libraries would not provide a listing of your kid's reading material, from age 12 on.

I sat and pondered over it.  As a kid in rural Alabama...using the county library...I can remember them having zero lists.  They just knew the books you had out currently.  

Having parents monitor your reading material?  Is this how far we've gone in the past forty-odd years? Would it be necessary....only because the library started a kinky-sex section and having bondage novels for 14-year old kids?

This is how weird things have become.

At the current pace of things...I expect some 14-year olds to openly challenge marriage laws and get minimum age requirements tossed out.