Sunday 12 March 2023

SVB Path For Next Ten Days

 First, I would expect every single person with an account...no matter where they live....to be at the bank in line to remove their cash remaining.  I expect the regulators to have some policy that you can only ask for x-amount (probably $10,000) per week. 

Second, I would expect well over a hundred 'gangs' to be outside the banks and waiting to jump the guys with cash exiting....somewhere.  Maybe on the street....maybe at home.  It wouldn't shock me if you had well over a hundred robberies on day one.

Third, President Biden will have to appear somewhere and make a 2-minute comment.  Sadly, he'll refer to his days working for an imaginary bank and he was always working for people's trust.  

Fourth, a lot of non-SVB people will enter their own bank, and try to move cash into a safe deposit box....finding more limits made up out of thin air, and scaring the crap out of the banking crowd.

Fifth, social media chatter will unnecessarily scare millions of people into viewing this as a 1929-like event.  

Sixth, by the end of the week.....at least three medium-level banking officials (unconnected to SVB) will have committed suicide from across the nation. 

Seventh, forty-odd Senators (Republicans and Democrats) will be hauling up some 'save-them' cash for SVB, with a lot of people asking why are you saving them?

Eighth, a number of CNBC financial analysts will be BSing the public, and getting extremely ridiculed over the chatter.

Ninth, a number of Silicon Valley start-up operations will suddenly be in a stumbling pattern....unable to pay employees and people planning an exit strategy out of Silicon Valley (maybe as early as next weekend).

Tenth, if you were looking for encouragement to leave California....this will figure into the top ten reasons to resolve the situation.  

Note: Reminder here....the 1929 stumble was about banks presenting themselves as protectors of your assets, and waking up to find that between the clerks and executives....they'd all spent years robbing the bank vault/books.  The cash simply wasn't there.  That reality created the Great Depression.  

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