The Approaching Draft

 I'm one of those people who believe the Army/Air Force/Navy recruitment program is 'twisted-up' and will fail by 2030.  My meaning?  The services will have a empty 'hole' of approximately 100,000 to 150,000 billets.  It'll be to the point that every unit existing....is slicing tasks....manned to a max of 90-percent,  and some 100k contractors are hired to do particular tasks.

At some point between 2030 and 2035....a draft (I predict) will  occur.

Then you will come to discover five remarkable facts:

1.  Around 25-percent of drafted folks....age 18 to 27....will  be unwilling to take orders.   

2. Around 40-percent will be confessing that they use both legal and illegal drugs.....on a weekly basis.  They will also tell the judge in the middle of things....they have no desire to clean themselves up.

3.  At least 10-percent of the drafted will be tested and shown unable to meet even the idiot-level on IQ testing.  Some will only be able to read at the 4th grade level.

4.  At least five-percent of those drafted....will tell the judge involved....they'd rather go to prison, than serve.

5.  Ten-percent of those drafted will  identify as animals or mentally unbalanced....thus getting them out of the draft status.  

In simple terms....just to reach 100,000 draftees...you probably will have to draft 250,000 folks.  

I worked with a NCO in 1978....he'd come in around 1968.  He brought up this airman in basic training....who after 4 weeks....the Air Force had decided they weren't going to waste any additional time on the guy.  His problem?  He was not going to take any order that he considered stupid.  The boot camp 'bosses' felt he'd come around after a week or two....well, it never did happen.  

I ponder upon this story, and just wonder how various officers will find the patience to handle future recruits in this landscape.