Humble View of the Biden-Trump Debate Chatter

Four things:

1.  Awful stringent to have only Biden's pick of network, but CNN ends up with the first debate.

I suspect they are sitting there and pausing over how Biden's crew wants them to craft pro-Biden questions and accept hard Trump topics.  I think the CNN folks might be fed up with this behavior, and just say....'screw it'.  

Yeah, they might  toss out half the Joe-questions and shock Joe with some tough questions.

I could see them wanting Trump back in office....to improve ratings.

2.  Should Trump invite RFK to 3 debates on his own?  Yeah.  I'd do all in September....leaving Joe completely out.

3.  If Joe screws up the July debate?  He's out at the convention.

4.  I think the VP  debates now matter....more than ever. 

Explaining Consumer Price Index To A Redneck

 The CPI is a pretty standard 'tool' for economists.  You basically take x-number of goods bought monthly, and keep visiting (repeating) to see if the price has gone up or down.  

Can you rig CPI?  You could but then you'd be defeating the usefulness of the tool.

So to explain this to a redneck....you have a 12 cases of assorted beer that you buy (12 brands).  

You start out at store X and buy one case of Miller Lite for $26.99.  You repeat this process for the remaining 11 cases.  Then you add the numbers up, and you have x-amount for May 2024.

If you were rigging this?  You'd have a list of superior discount shops and buy the beer only while on sale.  In this case, you might find the Miller Lite case....discounted at one particular shop for $24.99.  

You'd then repeat the discount game....to ensure the CPI looks great but at a majority of shops....it's likely to be $28.99.  You skipped them because your inflation numbers would be crap, if you did this right.

Screwed up?  No....it's just the way that you fake people out.  

This Brewing 'Hurricane' Effect On Condo Sales In Florida

 If you pull up real estate sites and search over Florida for condos for sale....it's a huge number listed (way more than normal).  Why?  Well....it leads to odd things:

1.  That condo collapse from last year triggered the state gov't to mandate condo associations actually do maintenance and have a pile of money to cover required 'fixes'.  That meant your association fee, which might have been $400 to $1000 a month....probably doubled.  It also meant that if they found massive problems....they came to you for a one-time pay-up situation...maybe $10,000.....maybe even $40,000.  

2.  Then the insurance industry revised their quotes....in most cases....going up by one-third...but some even doubled their yearly rate.

So 'Hank' looked at his personal mess to clean up and realized.....he doesn't have the savings or yearly retirement income to cover this mess.  Logically, he's got the property up for sale., 

Who would buy into a mess like this?  No one.

'Hank' will hit some point by December....realizing that his savings is being drained and association fee is bankrupting him....so he will declare bankruptcy and hand the keys to the association.  

What can the condo association do with the empty condo?  Nothing.

So from the 240 units of a average condo building...by summer of 2025, the association will probably have 30 to 60 units empty....unable to market them, and now approaching the remaining 180-odd players in the building that they need to pay a higher fee.  How high?  Well...they already saw a 50-to-100 percent rise in 2024.  I would imagine by mid-2025, it'll go to a second 50-to-100 percent rise....meaning a new crew of folks in desperation and talking to a lawyer over bankruptcy by spring of 2026.

The condo by summer of 2026?  Of the 240 units....more than half of the units will be empty, and the remaining folks are now in desperate times because their savings is being wiped out.   Yep, they will be discussing bankruptcy and handing the keys to the condo to the association.  Wave after wave....hitting the market.

Just a ball-park guess, but I would imagine over 300 condo buildings across the state by spring 2027....empty and fenced up.  State trying to size up the property and sell the units for $10,000 (over their current value of $250,000)?  It wouldn't shock me, but what idiot would go and buy some condo situation like this?

It's an amazing economic story to ponder.  All of these had value.....ownership was simplified....association operations functioned as designed.  Then one day....it all failed.

My question?  Lets say that 10,000 owners are in this situation and lose their property.....getting into serious financial woes.  Where do they move and rebuild their lives?  Anywhere, but Florida.  

Five Things I'd Do About Student Demonstrations

 1.  I'd add a line in the student rules......where if you demonstrated on property grounds....we'd call the city police and as you are detained.....you are automatically suspended from the school for one year, with your accomplishments so far in suspended status until the full year is over (meaning even if you transfer to another college....your classes aren't countable in that period).

2.  Non-member of the campus on the grounds?  Prosecute them to the fullest degree of the law.

3.  Zero camping allowed, and automatic confiscation of the tent/camping gear.  

4.  Employees of the school participating?  Tell them on university grounds, it's cause for dismissal.

5.  Creating a disturbance during a class day?  Add a $300 fee (per day).