China Problem

 Last week, I read a piece over 'leftover' Chinese women.

Generally, when you refer to 'leftover' Chinese gals....it means they are over 27 years old, still single, still looking for a 'decent' guy, and fairly frustrated.  The statistics here?  Unknown, and the Chinese government certainly doesn't want to go and collect this data.  If you browse around....it suggests that one in five women over age 27 are single.

The real issue here?  Well...a lot of these women are educated, somewhat successful, and really don't want 'losers'.

So the piece I was reading came from the director of a Chinese think-tank that looks at social issues.  The guy says that these women should go out into the rural regions of China to find a guy.   

I sat and pondered over this suggestion.

Generally, I suspect that Chinese women are going to laugh over this guy's advice and comment that rural guys are way down on their list.  If you stayed around the farm or rural area....you probably didn't advance that far in life (at least that's the way that things would seem).  

Where this will lead onto?  I suspect in the next decade, a few of these 30-year old Chinese women will finally take the plunge....looking for non-Chinese guys and leave China.

Optics Story

 So the whole reason for marginal or minimum security on the 6th of January....was a decision by Rep Pelosi.....concerned about 'optics' of having the National Guard in place?  

Yeah....more or less.  That came out in yesterday's news.

I'm one of those people who believe that you hire people to be in charge of things....who have responsibility and tend to see beyond 'optics'.  None of this business should have been left for Pelosi to handle.  

What happens now?  The chatter is that 1,000 additional Capital Police will be hired....with a security fencing deal to be put up around the Capital building. 

Having been there and walked around the structure....you probably will spend well over one-billion (Washington DC rates) for this stupid 'wall'.  

Renaming the Capital building 'Green-Zone, DC'?  It wouldn't shock me if the fencing or wall is green, and this immediately comes up.  Giving Trump ammo to continue chatting over border walls?  Absolutely.

The optics of this?  It's best not to even talk over that problem.

Five General Rules on Disinformation or Biased News

 My humble advice:

1.  If you read through a forty-line story and there's only marginally two lines of pure fact...the odds are that there's a fair amount of 'sway' or disinformation in the piece.

2.  If 'anonymous' sources are the primary structure of the article/news....it's best to just discard it.

3.  If they tell you right away that their data has been fact-checked....like in paragraph two, then it's probably wise to ask who the fact-checker is, and their background or past.

4.  Typically, the headline of a disinformation piece is signaling you ahead of time.....so look over the headline carefully.

5.  Finally, if the article is written to help someone or some group, or to harm someone/some group.....the odds are heavily in favor of it being disinformation. 

The Biden Dilemma Over Illegal Immigration

 If you go and review CNN or any of the normal news networks....the number of illegal migrants in the US is somewhere between 10 and 20 million (it's generally the number that the US government will sign up to and agree on).

So the real question here....if Biden's policy to offer amnesty occurs, and suddenly the real number turns out to be 30 to 35 million?  That type of revelation would put the whole government and migrant focus into a different prospective.  Some would ask....how did fifteen-odd million people just hide from all this data collection, and others would ask.....what type of work were these people doing to hide from state and federal officials.  

All of this to occur by the end of 2021?  Probably.

If the numbers stay in the ten to twenty-million range?  The situation can just continue on.  If it gets up around 25-to-30 million?  Just settle back to be entertained, and once you get to around 35 million....things will get real interesting. 

Is Mitch McConnell Nuts?

 Around six weeks ago, Senator McConnell made a blunt statement....Trump was finished....Trump was not helpful....the party needs to move on....etc.  It was obvious then that the Kentucky Senator was finished with relations with Trump.

So in the past forty-eight hours....the same guy comes out and says he will support Trump in 2024 if he wins at the convention.  

Nuts?  On my humble scale....Mitch is somewhere around a 9-to-9.5 on the nuts scale.  

If Trump emerges in 2024 and wins at the convention....I expect Mitch to be one of about forty Republicans who are deemed as unhelpful and given zero access to Trump's inner circle.  

What really happened here?  I would suggest around fifty-percent of Republican Senators have been around DC so much.....that they really don't grasp what has occurred in the nation over the past forty years.  

These are people who need to pack up a camper, and spend six weeks traveling around the nation....getting a clear understanding of what changed, and how they (the Senators) no longer fit into reality. 

Woke = Sin?

 When you drill down into all of this woke-business....what it really comes down to....is that you feel some type of sin, and some type of guilt.  At that point, if you were a religious guy truly feeling a sin-trip....you'd ask for forgiveness, and get all religious-ified.  

Well....normal people would.

Assholes?  Skeptics?  Jerks?  Pricks?  No....you could dump a ton of sin and guilt on them, and they frankly don't care.  They'd even laugh in your face.

The more you review this entire discussion over woke.....it just looks like some 15th century Catholic Church 'drill', and you confess everything to feel good.  The skeptics and jerks?  They are just grinning....they've committed no sin and feel no regret/pity/sorrow.  

What eventually happened around the 1520s/1530s?  They lost around fifty-percent of their 'team' because of Martin Luther and his exodus from the church.  The woke crowd will eventually find the Martin Luther character confronting them, and a anti-woke crowd will appear. 

Biden and the Nukes Chatter

 I'm kinda surprised by the amount of general coverage over the Democratic Party suggestion to President Biden, to give up sole discretion over nuclear warfare, and allow a 'committee' to process the situation and leave the President out of the situation.

There are generally five issues here if you think about it:

1.  This idea comes out of thin air, and no journalist can say where this suddenly developed.  

2.  If you said a committee of five were created for this 'purpose'....you'd also require each of the five to have Secret Service protection around the clock, and have a attaché-case (the codes) guy always within close proximity to the committee members.

3.  The fact that all five members might not be in the same room, same building or same city when the threat occurs?  It begs the question how they would react, or 'vote'.  What if you had one of the five on some camping trip in rural Idaho, and the emergency came up....would the guy even be able to vote 'nuke' or would you just sit on a 2-2 situation for nuke use?  

4.  Picking people for this purpose?  If the President is so untrustworthily for the job presently....then you can't let him select the five committee members.  Then who would select them?  The House/Senate? 

5.  Why would you limit this committee thing to only nuclear weapons?  Once you open up this discussion.....you could have fifty different jobs that the President typically does.....run by committees.  We could have a whole 4th element of the government....just called 'Committees'...which function and the President would just be there to hand pens out, attend funerals, make speeches, wave at people from the White House, and do interviews on comedy shows.

The more they openly discuss this....the more likely there's a whole list of things that President Biden probably can't do in his present state of mind, and it just begs the question....when exactly did folks wake up to this?

My suspicion?  I think after VP Harris called around to foreign folks in the last two weeks....they all voiced some secret report that they'd read....that President Biden isn't all there mentally, and they want some assurance that things will be managed in a safe way.  

It's just a funny discussion and you wonder if President Biden himself realizes the game being played.  

Footnote:  If I ran this situation, I'd arrange a 7-day shift situation and have five House/Senate members flown to some secretive underground bunker, with no booze, no TV, etc.  You pull a seven day shift....'nuke-team-duty'.  I'd make this as dull and boring as possible....requiring Republicans and Democrats to mingle for seven days straight.  

Seven Blunt Truths

 1.  Colin Kapernick had one brief entry point in 2017 to clean up his act and return to the NFL.  From 2018 on, he had zero value.  

2.  Around 10 to 20 percent of NBA fans have permanently left and will never watch another game for the rest of their lives.

3.  The million or so migrants set to enter the US in 2021?  They will find little to no excess employment going on.  When the Biden situation occurs with illegals in the US get their visa.....then get told to move on because their illegal job no longer exists....that will be the open door for the new migrants to get an illegal job....as long as they avoid the visa deal.

4.  Was John Kerry meeting with Iranian officials prior to Biden assuming office?  Yeah....it appears that way (same deal as Flynn got into trouble for).

5.  Some folks are actually talking potential conflict arising from Turkey and Iran.  That would be a shocker.

6.  Some Americans went to France recently and were asking if France was grateful for Americans liberating them in WW II?  Kinda silly....99-percent of those who were affected....are dead.  For five-percent of the population....there's some shock because they've never been told that they were invaded, or that someone had to kick the German's ass....to liberate France.

7. There's talk that a $10 an hour wage deal will come up now....instead of the $15 talked about last month, for the minimum wage.  

I've Tried to Make Sense

 I picked up this recent 'chat-topic'....training classes to influence white folks to pretend to be 'less' white.

So, the jest of this training gimmick revolves around ten things:

1.  You ought to be less oppressive.

2.  You ought to be less arrogant.

3.  You ought to be less sure of yourself.

4.  You ought to be less agreeable with other white folks.  

5.  You ought to be less defensive.

6.  You ought to be less ignorant.

7.  You need to be more humble.

8.  You need to listen to everyone....even stupid people.

9.  You need to believe people....even if they are wrong.

10.  Finally, you need to have less concern, less enthusiasm, less focus, and less interest in general topics.

The list here...are simply talking points for a trainer to set up a seminar (likely to be three or four hours) and get you into some mindset that you can be trained to be.....well.....'LESS'.  

I sat and thought about my habits.

Generally, the minute I identify you as stupid or lacking common sense....I hit my personal 'mute-button' and from that point on...whatever you say....I'm not going to pay attention to it.  Nothing personal on skin-color or skin-condition or even education-level (I do it to PhD folks as well).....it's an automatic gut-feeling that comes over me (kinda like being in a grassy yard and seeing four snakes hanging out at one end).

Generally, trying to suggest to me over x-topics that I need to feel less focus or interest....I'll switch to a persuasion situation, and convince you in two minutes that you might not have my interest in mind.  

Generally, telling me to trust ALL people....just won't happen.  I'm a born skeptic and once you start on some Chevy pick-ups are all five-star vehicles....my trust level dissipates real quick.  I can think of about 5,000 different arguments you could start up on full and absolute trust, and I'd just push back against that level of thinking.

Generally, if you measured me up on humbleness....I'd near a '9'.  Most people I've ever worked with....probably were a '7' or above.  If you were a royal a-hole fellow, there's pretty good odds that I didn't do much to help you, or buy your product, or see your discussion advancing too far.

Generally, on being ignorant of things (say the top 100k in the world of topic)....I read an awful lot....ask a lot of questions, and would suggest that there might be a few things that I am absolutely ignorant on (raccoon breeding cycles, basic transmission repair, Star Wars characters, Catholic demon chatter, romance novels, vegan foods, Japanese beers, benefits of meth, Japanese cartoons, and barn-building).  But when you open this discussion of being ignorant....what exactly are you referring to?

Generally, on being less defensive....if you are suggesting that you say we need to do something, and I must accept your conditions....well, no....it won't work that way.  Again, what exactly are you suggesting to be less defensive about?

Generally, I base discussions on the logic in the matter, and facts....I don't care what skin you have or don't have....you need to base some discussion item upon on logic and facts.  If you can't use either....it's not a discussion, and we don't need to worry about mutual agreement.

Generally, if you are asking me to be less sure of myself....how did you arrive at that level of thinking?  Are we just flipping a coin and every other flip....I need to be wrong, even if I am right?

Generally, if you are asking me to be less arrogant....what's the odds that you yourself.....are displaying arrogant behavior?  Ten percent?  Fifty percent?

Finally, this less oppressive chatter....if you suggesting I accept a marginal service or third-world political system, or a educational level that you'd expect in Paraguay....then I'm probably going to oppress you a good bit.  It's the same, if you walked into a restaurant and paid for forty dollars for a marginal dinner with a can of some soda.....you'd be fairly oppressive about the situation.  

All of this leads me to one general feeling....there's some less-than-smart individuals who are fairly screwed-up in life and figuring there's got to be some way to level the playing field and bring people down to their level.  Frankly, that's probably not going to happen. 

Yeah, I did go and spend some time thinking over this discussion, and I tried to make sense out of it, but it fails the 'logic-test'.  Added to this....Asians and Latinos will just start laughing if you convey they also need to be re-trained and follow this process.  

Observations

 1.  Is there such a thing as 'good' debt?

No.  Maybe you could sip some whisky and say less debt is better than more debt, but in general....any debt is bad debt.

2.  How many folks did Marshall Dillion of Gunsmoke shoot dead?

Some folks have gone back to view the 20 years of episodes and put the minimum to around 138 men and potentially up to around 303 (these were extra bystanders where the camera angle left you wondering).  I should add....he also shot seven women (you can figure that they had it coming as 'villain's').  

3.  Does Trump actually have to run in 2024....to really make things nauseous for the  Democrats?

No.  Just by having him on the road and making speeches for a 'selected' Republican....he can deliver 70-million votes once again. 

4.  Did Joe Biden's nominee for Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, Uzra Zeya....actually say that Jews have dual loyalty issues and can't really be fully-trusted?

Yeah......that comment was actually uttered.  

Nuke Story

 I sat this morning and read through a story where around 35 to 40 House Democrats (Monday news) has asked the Biden administration to give up his "sole authority" over the launching of nuke weapons.  

Their suggestion?  It should be a committee approach.....so that one person is out of the picture, and a group meeting/vote would occur.

Who would make up this committee?  They didn't really say.

How many in the committee?  They didn't really say. 

How many minutes of time would the committee have to decide upon this decide?  They didn't really say.

My humble guess is that it'd have to be at least five to seven members on this 'committee', and that they wouldn't necessarily be Senators or House members....just full-time nuke authority folks.  

Lets say a situation unfolds and President so-and-so calls up the committee, and they discuss things, and three members are for nuking, three are against, and one abstains.  Then how do you handle this?

Lets say that as you appoint the seven....all of course in their sixties and seventies (in terms of age)....at least two have hidden alcohol and drug habits, and can't be trusted.  Can you fire them in a heartbeat and appoint two new folks.....without a House or Senate vote?

What if you appointed three folks onto the committee who are absolutely don't-nuke types?

Would you have 21 members for the committee, with seven guys always sitting in some bunker in Colorado.....ready to react for their 72-hour shift?  Or would you create a secure golf course resort, with twenty-odd condos for the committee and their houchy-houchy women to hang out while on duty?

What if some nutty country got to the seven guys on the committee and terminated all seven an hour before the launch of the attack on the US?

For some reason, the more you ponder upon this idea.....the more marginal the suggestion becomes.

Social Worker Story

 I read through a ten-line story this morning.....concerning NY City police and a decision they've made in the past couple of days.

So when you call into the 911-folks....and the hint from the call is that there's a 'nutcase' involved....the police won't respond.  They will simply hand the case off to social workers. 

You can imagine 'Marvin' and 'Mary'.....ten-year employees of the city social worker system, and they were brought in this week....to be briefed that things kinda changed, and they might be dealing with some severe cases of nutty behavior.

What'll likely occur?  Marvin and Mary will arrive at some street corner, with a guy acting pretty bizarre.  Mary will try to talk to the guy, and after sixty seconds....realize that he's pretty serious and likely to flip into an assault situation.  As she turns (in hopes that Marvin is there to back her up)....she discovers that Marvin is ten paces behind her now and is of zero value.  

My humble guess?  This NY City police decision will be revisited by the end of July, and at least twenty cases of assault will be noted by the city social worker teams. Will the police just take back the duty?  No....I think they will draw this out and openly challenge the city leadership to admit they really screwed up badly.

Theater Story

 I read this morning that NY City theaters have some kind of deal being made up....to re-open shortly.

The basic premise?  You'd only allow 25-percent of the seats to be used (the other 75-percent would be taped-off).

Can you make a profit as a theater off 25-percent of your seating?  No.  If you have a 400-seat theater and the max usage is 100 seats, you probably make enough to cover rent and utilities.  There's zero profit, unless you started charging $16 to $20 for each seat.  Increasing seat prices?  They haven't really said that, but I don't see how you'd avoid that discussion.

The mask requirement?  Oh yeah.....to watch a 2.5-hour movie....you have to wear a mask through the whole experience.  Popcorn and sodas? How?

The odds that I'd go to this type of deal? Zero chance.  

When 'Armed' Insurrection Isn't Insurrection

 For weeks, since the 6th of January event....there's been this continual chatter of 'armed rebellion' or 'armed insurrection'.  

I've spent a fair amount of time pondering over this, and come to this observation.  If this was rebellion or insurrection on the 6th....the only gunshot fired....was by a Capital Policeman, and that killed an unarmed civilian.  Beyond that....it's a 1-star rebellion/insurrection.  Anybody from Iraq, Syria, or El Salvador would tell you that.

Can you even have a rebellion or insurrection without guns?  I have my doubts.

The most that you can say is that most of the 6th crowd had flags (on sticks), and seemed to be hyped-up.  But it's the same enthusiasm that you'd see at a NCAA football game.

Just something to think about. 

Book Recommendation

 I've wrapped up a book this week, entitled: 'The Great Crash 1929'....written by John Kenneth Galbraith.

I'd strongly recommend a read of the book if you ever had curiosity or interest in the period before the 1929 crash.  Galbraith lays out a very good description of the 1920s, the real estate speculation on, the shorts-strategy on stocks, and the wild speculation going on.  You also get a good long negative impression of Hoover and FDR.

It's around 220 pages long and avoids the dullness you get with most books on economic subjects. 

One of the topics that he picks up....is this Florida real estate 'boom'.  Very early in the 1920s....land speculators came into Florida....buying up farm acreage....to resell and get speculation going on.

Example: you'd buy a 50-acre package....split it into 50 1-acre lots, and then say the whole property (which you might have bought for $200 an acre) is now worth $1,000 per acre.  You sell the property to the buyer who only puts down 10-percent of the asking price, but has a monthly payment plan.  Speculation starts up and four months later, you find that someone is willing to pay $1,500 to $2,000 for that acre.  This second guy sells his 1-acre six months later for $3,000.  

Guys who walked into this at the early stage....buying ten lots....easily walked away with 200-percent profit in one single year, and were probably addicted to the 'game' at that stage.  So they returned, and the whole thing simply went out of control.

If you had the bare basic knowledge level of the 1929 event....this would really help to fill in the rest of your landscape on the era.  

This Republican Effort to Deny Trump Standing?

 If you wrote up a list of the top 500 Republicans (governors, Representatives, Senators, AG's, etc), you'd find that around twenty-percent of them have angled toward anti-Trump theme over the past six months.  In their mind, the public needs to move on and not be some concentrated on Trump.

I've spent a fair amount of time thinking over this problem (at least with this twenty-percent group), and come to five central observations:

1.  The pro-Trump voters want someone who obviously knows business, commerce, taxes, and trade.  To be kinda honest, the party has never had anyone who'd fit into this side of life....they produced a bunch of lawyers who weren't that gifted into the knowledge that Trump had.

You can pull out the front-page of the Wall Street Journal and circle the top ten stories of the day.  Trump could be brought into a room, and asked on the ten stories, and have a general fundamental view of the story and give you an idea of what's going on.  Bill Clinton, George Bush, or Barak Obama?  Nothing.  

So there's this disconnect from the professional lawyer-politicians, and the general Republican voting group.  The enthusiasm is never going to return.

2.  Trump could see some criticism leveled at him by any number of Democrats, and within ten minutes....form his own counter-criticism back.  From the current group of Republican-wannabes-for-President?  Not a single one is capable of performing that action.  

3.  Pick up the top fifteen platforms that Trump had in 2016 and 2020....then ask these 500 Republicans at the top.....can you match the same platforms?  There will be an awful lot of silence, and some will admit....well, yeah....they could support ten of these.  The wall business....the tough stand on China trade?  No....none of them will go to that extent.

By limiting their positions....they just aren't capable of getting public support.

4.  Cornering the news media?  Over the past twenty years....the news media attached itself to a biased position or signed onto fake news.  Ask yourself....who from the 500-odd Republicans can stand against this type of 'mess'.  

5.  The emergence of frustrated voters....who just want to start firing people within the government?  This is part of the whole story as well, and if you lined up the 500-odd Republicans coming after Trump?  Well....you just won't find anyone who seems capable or desiring of firing folks. 

So as much as new brand 'dump-Trump' seems to be uttered by various Republican 'fakes'....they have mostly identified themselves as the ones who probably need to be dumped or fired.  

The emergence of non-lawyers in the future for Republican candidates?  I suspect this trend will continue.  

Explaining Moore's Law

 It's not a commonly discussed thing but it's worth two minutes to think about this situation.

Back in the mid-1960s....this smart guy, Gordon Moore, who was into electronic circuit development....sat down and did some calculations.

He looked at developments over the past decade, and then forecasted where things were going into the mid-1970s.  His prediction?  Knowledge and development were doubling roughly every 18 to 24 months.  

This idea just being circuits or electronic in nature?  Most folks have taken literally everything and applied Moore's Law into it (medical development, cars, cellphones, etc).

Here's this odd development with Moore's Law.  You can reliably project that whatever knowledge you are given in a four-year college, is probably dumped for the most part within five years after getting out of school.  Maybe the analytical part is still around, and the basic strategy to view things is there....but the rest of the $120k of cash-paid knowledge is zeroed out.

So there is this way of viewing this....that four years of a college is pretty much worthless, and it's probably been that way since the 1980s.  

The guys who graduated college and became teachers in 2000?  Well, unless we are talking English literature or grammar....their knowledge level from 2000....has been exceeded a minimum of five times and their value as teachers might be half of what it was a decade ago.  

Just something to think about.  

What Existed Prior to Facebook and Twitter?

 To put this into prospective....Facebook came along in 2004, and probably didn't become a big deal until 2008.  Twitter?  It came along in 2006, and became a big deal in 2008's election cycle.

To be honest, if you wanted news prior to 2008....you watched cable TV and got a dose of radio news on the way to work, or returning home each night.  A lot of people forget that era before FB and Twitter.

We existed fairly well...without either App, and to a great extent.....the news received didn't really make itself into a big deal.

If both Twitter and FB went away tomorrow....would it radically change things?  I'm not sure about that.  We might go back to the local newspapers, and stress would likely go down a notch or two. 

Why This Enormous Effort to Bar Trump From 2024?

 For several weeks, I've been pondering over the massive amount of effort and 'bridge-burning' being conducted....to find some single way of barring Donald Trump from the 2024 election.

Normally, to have such a major win (7-million-plus votes across the nation)....there's just not any reason to 'fear' any scenario relating to Trump.

Total votes (even for third-party folks)?  158,383,000 votes.  Twenty-two million 'new' votes over 2016, and twenty-eight million 'new' votes over 2012.  

Compared against 2016: 136,669,000 votes.

Compared against 2012: 129,085,000 votes.

Compared against 2008: 131,313,000 votes

Now, if we are saying that the 158-million number can't be sustained? Well, that would be different.  The odds, unless we continue with mail-in voting? Maybe it can stay near this level.

But you just look at front-page action since the first week of January, and it just seems like 50-percent of all Democratic Party Chatter is centered still on Trump.  

Keeping the suspense up?  Eventually, even moderate Democrats will ask if you can't move on....does that mean that Trump will forever be the 'pain' that Democrats must suffer.

I sat through a analysis piece over the weekend....talking about two particular districts on the far west side of Texas....that shocked folks with a lot of Latino votes that occurred for Trump (more than what was expected).  While the two Democratic Representatives did marginally win....both now point out that the feeling in the region has shifted, and Latinos seem pretty solid in that area for Trump.  If some conversion occurred nationally....with half the Latino population solid votes for Republicans?  That really messes up the future of the Democratic Party.

It's just something I ponder about....so much effort, no fence-mending, no pursuit of the future without Trump somehow messing up their business.  Just a pretty weird game underway.

The Short Discussion Over DC Becoming a State

 After a lot of thought on the idea, the process, and the 'script'....I will suggest three things to occur as DC prepares for this summer effort to obtain state-status:

1.  At some point, the fact will be put up that it's the first ever creation within the US of a city-state...meaning that the mayor/governor title will exist.  A number of intellectual types will try to grasp this model, and how it can work in real life.  For example, there's typical a legislative background....will the city council of DC (13 members) just equate itself to be a legislative group, with thirteen members?

This drags out the really stupid question....mayors and city council folks usually worry about pot-holes, snow removal, and street names.  This is something that most governors and legislative members don't do.  Can the governor and legislative group act like such a creation, or will this be a long-term problem?

2.  All Democratic senators locked onto this DC entry?  Well....no.  This got brought up this week....four Democrats are not hyped-up or showing a willing nature to vote for this

The two Democrats from Arizona (Kelly and Sinema) haven't said anything in public and have avoided the topic entirely.  The Maine independent (who typically votes with them)....King?  He has avoided the topic entirely.  The West Virginia guy? Manchin?  He hasn't made a comment since this whole thing popped up.

Without those four votes, the DC application won't pass.

3.  Finally, this debate comes up over federal government control of the District.  As a state, the Feds would no longer have a say in the running or operational control of the District (flipped to state-status).  

The inauguration process?  Well....the DC state apparatus could be unhappy over the pick of the President, and engage strict limits on the inauguration ceremony, the crowd, and the events of the day.  

There are a hundred different ways that the state of Columbia could be this 'Frankenstein' with no way of fixing the mess....except for moving the Federal apparatus out of Columbia entirely and re-inventing another District elsewhere (out of thin air). 

So, I come to my judgement here....once you see that Puerto Rico and Guam won't be offered the same path to statehood....the discussion will disintegrate over the last half of 2021, and become another zero-subject by Christmas.  DC will stay DC.  

(I should suggest this....Georgetown (the neighborhood to the far NW of DC)....ought to go out and demand it's own state-status, and split this entire effort into two states applying)

What is Samizdat?

 It's originally a term invented in Russia (1940s), and it revolves around fake news created in the old Soviet Union and the Eastern European countries who were tightly controlled by the Soviets.  

So folks reached a level where the highly promoted news was viewed as fake, and they started to create real news-letters.  They'd be printed out.....quietly handed to friends, and passed on.  In simple terms....an underground network of publications not authorized by the state apparatus.

It eventually reached a stage where even music was considered 'too controlled' and samizdat editions of records were created (bootleg records so to speak).

Are we living in a samizdat era now?  I sat and pondered over this.  Up until the 1990s....I would have said no.  In the past twenty years?  You have to assemble each story you read.....take the red-marker, and then determine the amount of facts, speculation or BS.

So out of this decline in news story facts....yes, we've had a US effort to create a samizdat 'wave'.  For a while....Fox News served that role.  Lately, Newsmax and OANN fit the samizdat model.

Twitter and Facebook?  They both try to tightly control the news pattern and factual analysis.  But in doing so....they open the door for samizdat type creations to occur.  

Samizdat likely to be involved in the 2022/2024 elections?  More than likely.

What you really need to take out of this 'creation'?  Well....once you reach a level where trust is gone with news or state (enforced) facts....there's not much of a reason to go back or accepting the fake news.  You can call it a decline of the empire....but the decline started with the fake/biased news in the first place. 

The Odds of HR 127 Passing?

 In the House of Representatives...HR 127 has been submitted.  

It lists six things:

1.  There has to be a mandated and public accessible listing of gun owners, their weapons and 'where' the guns are kept.

2.  Some ammo (50-cal or greater) would be banned entirely.

3.  Mandate gun owners purchase some type of weapon insurance (must be $800 a year).

4.  Create a psychological evaluation for anyone wanting to buy a gun.

5.  Mandate some type of government training course prior to purchase. 

6.  If you fail on any of these mandates, a penalty of ten years in prison and $50k minimum fine.

Odds of passing?  I suspect that more than one-third of Democratic House members and at least ten Democratic Senators would be unable to support this....as it's constructed. 

So you start off with the obvious big issue....you could actually do more jail-time than a guy selling LSD to school kids.  

The governmental training angle?  Who?  You'd have to create some county-by-county training establish....probably over 10k employees, and take into consideration that maybe 1-percent of the applicants marginally speak English.  The cost of this training?  Just for one single day (eight hours), I would assume near $300.  

The mental review?  Who is doing this?  How are they qualified?  If they qualified some 18-year-old guy and three years later....he's hearing voices (paranoid schizophrenia).....are you going to hold the mental review guy responsible if the nutcase shoots three people?  

How many idiots are buying 50-cal guns and 50-cal ammo?  Maybe half of one-percent?  Just adding up the general cost of 50-cal ammo....you could probably a pretty good evening out (with fine dining and wine) for one single box of 50-cal ammo.

The insurance angle?  Why does the insurance cost $800?  Sorry, but you need to establish what the end-result of the insurance should be first....before you come to any pricing 'game'.  If you invite the insurance guys into this discussion....they will tell you that pistols are more often used in regular shootings, and that shotgun insurance or rifle insurance should be more often around $10 a year.  Do these idiots writing laws even grasp how insurance works?

I should add....if you consider all weapons, then knives ought to be dragged into the insurance game, and reflect some $90 insurance cost per year....if we are playing your stupid game.

Then you come to the serious joke here....if you lived in some highly urbanized area like Chicago....you might need to pay $800 a year, but if you lived in rural Colorado....you probably only need to pay $7 a year....if you are truly paying real insurance games.

HR 127 will linger around for most of the year....maybe get a brief discussion by November, and then expire by 31 December without ever being brought up for a vote.

If you tried to go and openly discuss this around the city of Detroit.....blacks and whites....working class people....I doubt if you can find more than 5-percent of the group who'd support this idea.  Most will laugh over how it's constructed.  Even if you asked folks who has 50-cal weapons in Detroit....you might find fewer than five folks in the entire city with that 'hobby'.  

The $15 an Hour Minimum Wage Deal? Dead?

 Yep, if you follow the news....President Biden had this meeting with a couple of governors, and the take is....the $15 deal isn't going anywhere.  

Remember how hyped up folks were?

What really happened here?  I think around 50-percent of Democratic House members had a reality check....then looked at the current $7.25 rate.  The only path ahead for them?  Agree to some $1 rise ($8.25) and maybe hit $9 by 2024.

Logically, it makes sense.

Did the Joe-crew (running him and the White House) ask the Nancy Pelosi-team about the path?  No.  Zero communications.  

Do you get the impression....from the top ten Biden topics of January and February, that all ten have bumped into a wall and failed?  If you were Bill Clinton, George Bush, or Barak Obama....would you have stumbled this badly at the start?  No.  

Can Biden even do a retreat from $15 to $8.25?  No.  It would look ridiculous to the general population.  So he has to cancel out the talk entirely....let it lay there for six months, and dig up the rate change toward the end of 2021, with a one-dollar rise on the minimum wage.  

You would think that they'd have a person hired-up in the White House....to have a one-hour meeting each week with Schumer and Pelosi, and iron out details....so there's one single script.  This crew in Biden's office area?  Zero background and no grasp of the split government.  

All these burger-flippers and Piggly Wiggly cashiers....who dreamed of this magnificent $15 an hour deal by the end of 2021?  Back to work, and grumbling about that brief fantasy.  

Observations:

 1.  Various news groups reported that Nikki Haley was told 'no'....she was not welcomed to Mar-a-Lago situation with Donald Trump.  Whoever was handling her for lobbyists....dug her deep enough into a mess...that she will probably never be able to primary as a Senator or House member for the state.  At best, some idiot Republican president down the line will appoint her as some ambassador.  Finished.

2.  This House bill for illegal migrants in the US?  It involves a 8-year period.  If you stand and look at this....those who enter legally, can submit the paperwork and go through the process in six to twelve months.  So in various ways, the legal folks still get ahead of the illegal folks.

3.  Reparations chatter starting up in the House?  More or less, President Biden said he'd support it.  

Living at the Bottom and Payscale

 I sat last week and imaged my pay-status in 1978 (the first real year in the Air Force).  

I made roughly $450 a month for the whole year....totaling out at around $4,100 for the year if you took out state tax, federal tax and social security. That was it.  Luckily, I had the chow hall for all my food necessities and the barracks room for my quarters.

Welfare status?  Well....no.  I admit....it wasn't much on pay, and you limited your lifestyle a good bit.  

All things considered, I did ok with $4,400 a year.  

Inflation factor calculating for today?  The same amount today would equal $1,600 roughly.

Rush Rules: #33: There Will Always Be a Poor People

 With the passing of Rush Limbaugh, I will admit at various times (particularly in the 1989 to 1992 era), I listened to his talk-radio show a good bit.  In the past decade....maybe four hours in an entire year.  I tended to agree with around 60-to-70 percent of what he said, but had some serious reservations on things.

There's this list of Rush 'truths', and from this list.....the one I disagreed with a great deal was #33 (There will always be a poor people).

I'm a capitalist.  If you measured my enthusiasm for the 'art'....it's maxing out at 9.9 (out of ten).  

I'm a believer that where you start in life does not mean you are stuck there for the rest of your life.

It's an odd thing....you'd expect some PhD guy to go and get a hired-hand listing for a McDonalds in Chattanooga, Tennessee for 1981, and track to see where these folks forty years later are.  My humble belief is that 70-percent did move up and develop well-to-do lives (going beyond poor status).  

I might also agree that 5-percent of that group probably still work at McDonalds today, and still run the French Fry business, or run the front-counter.  These are people without aspirations or willing nature to get ahead.

But no one ever seems to go back ten years....twenty years....or thirty years, to see where fryer-guy or the milkshake-guy went.  

If Rush meant a lesser-class people will always exist?  Then I might agree with that angle....because we don't have a need for sixteen-million rocket-scientists, or twelve--million electrical engineers.  

I just don't buy the concept that a 16-year-old kid gets some thought-process that delivering pizzas is fine work for the next fifty years, or running the counter at Burger King. 

Numbers Story

 Back around mid-December, I was reading a piece from a guy who had to fly (no choice) to a funeral on the other side of the country.  

He'd been a regular flyer up until spring of 2020, and this Covid-19 business had chilled him/wife/family enough....that it was a no-go situation.

So this guy reviewed his local airport (maybe 20-percent of the normal traffic walking around as before), the connecting airport (same story), and the end-destination airport (same story).  

Food stands were marginally operating.  Bars were about the only place in full function.  Fantastic speed through the TSA security points because they were fully manned. 

I noticed in this morning's news....a report was issued, and they said 2020's numbers were about the same as 1984.

For the whole year of 2020....368-million passengers across the US.  A year prior (2019)?  922.6-million.  Here's the one thing to consider....we really didn't start the lock-down until you get to the end of March.  So for the first quarter of 2020....those numbers were normal.  They didn't divide the report up, but I would guess that almost half of the 368-million occurred in the first quarter of 2020.

What are the consequences here?

Airports and airport businesses were built to turn profits.  They aren't doing it.

The operations landscape requires x-number of people buying tickets and paying taxes.  Well....presently, x-number is probably 30-to-40 percent of the norm.  So the tax income isn't occurring.

The people in the background?  The ones that ran the airport Asia food stands in Detroit, or ran the airport sports bar in Chicago, or the airport gift shop in Tulsa?  If they are open....they probably run with 50-percent manpower, or close by 6 PM (instead of 10 PM in 2019's landscape). 

People openly receptive to travel?  I would suggest that most would prefer to stay within a 500-mile circle of their house, and just drive their car rather than travel two hours by air to reach NY City or Vegas.  To what extent?  It wouldn't surprise me if two-thirds of regular travelers have become this way.

Recovering in 2021?  How so?  Where is there evidence that people see some exit door to the epidemic?  This vaccination business?  It's hard to find anyone who wants to 'promise' absolute protection against Covid-19, if you get the vaccination.  

I'm going to predict this....that the airport numbers for 2021 probably won't go above 450-million by the end of the year, and it settles there for 2022 as well.  It settles there....a less-than-bold new era....new marginal realities....and some false sense of returning to normal.  

Diversification of Productivity

 I often refer to this odd development in society that if you 'want' something....you can usually find it being produced.

As a kid, if you walked into A&P (the local grocery)....there were basically seven sodas (Coke, Pelosi, Tab, Sundrop, RC Cola, 7-Up, and Sprite).  

Today, if you walked into Wal-Mart's soda area?  There are a minimum of forty different sodas there.  If you wanted some cucumber-flavored Coke....in Japan, they make it.  

If your kid went through some stage where he only wore dark green shirts and trousers?  You can find some company that makes the right fashion statement, and you'd bulk up on this trend (to make the kid happy).

If you like whiskey and coke already mixed and in a can?  There's probably a dozen companies that now make the beverage.

If you had some preference to watch some beefy gals (200-pounds-plus) dance at some bar.....you can probably find such a bar easily existing in Nashville or Dallas.

If you went looking for unique steak sauces?  Throughout the US now, I'd take a guess that well over 1,000 different sauces are packaged and sold.

Imagine a 60-year old sitting down and having a conversation with a 15-year old kid.....with some aim of discussing the more recent past, and how things appear today.  The kid would be shocked over the limits of the 1960s, and how much you 'suffered'.

Our prospective?  We never sit and view this past landscape, and rarely have an appreciation of a banana-split-chocolate flavored Stout (beer) (something that has only occurred in the past decade).

Math/School Story

 I noticed another Oregon state government effort on 'fixing' schools in the state.  

A 82-page 'training-document' went out to the various districts.

The basic formula ahead?  Well....if you are asking kids in class to show their work (meaning, going to the board to show such-and-such math problem)....then you are demonstrating 'white-supremacy).

If your efforts as a teachers are gauged to getting kids to get to the right answer....you are demonstrating 'white-supremacy'.

If you are tracking tracking student successes/failure, then you are demonstrating 'white-supremacy'.

Finally, if you are grading kids....then you are demonstrating 'white-supremacy'. 

What's likely to happen now?  I'd take a guess that more than a quarter of the population will evaluate this path ahead and determine that the only path to any education in the state....will be home-study.  

It's amazing....you go and structure a path to guarantee a massive exodus to the public school system....by creating a fake narrative called 'white-supremacy'.  All of this...in a state with less than two percent noted as black.  

How Many Truth Commissions Should There Be?

Hype underway by Rep Pelosi to have a truth commission over the 6th of January.

Well....I can think of around 3,000 things I'd like to have a truth commission over:

- Did Pete Rose do some real gambling stuff?

- Is the NCAA bowl process really screwed up?

- Was it really necessary to dump the Aunt Jimena name, and go to this 'Milling' fake name?

- What's really with the alien and UFO business?

- What's with bigfoot?

- What's the real story with Hunter Biden?

- What's with Jeffrey Epstein's suicide?  Or was he murdered?

- Is fluoridated water safe to really drink?

- Do masks really help in terms of preventing Covid-19?

- Was the Georgia election process totally legit in 2020?

- What's with MK Ultra?

- What's with cattle mutilations?

- What did Nancy Pelosi decide on protection for the 6th of January?

- Why is California as a state....so far in debt?

I could keep writing these, but the truth is.....no one really wants that much truth in their life.

So here's my suggestion....let's start up 3,000 truth commissions....six bosses and forty 'helpers' each and get each of these commissions going.  By the end, we ought to have a whole lot of truth....enough to keep CNN busy for five years....chatting over the 'truth'.  

Observations

 1.  This chatter about a '6-January' truth commission?  Basically, if it did come to exist and issue a report....you'd have to have a second truth commission to review the acts of the first truth commission, and then maybe even a third truth commission to review the second truth commission.

2.  It's believed that 100-billion dollars was 'stolen' from the Covid-19 stimulus package via fake submissions.  Politicians shocked?  I don't think anyone has noticed them 'shocked'.

3.  Someone did a poll and found that if you were married....the odds are slightly more in your favor that you voted for Donald Trump (married men slightly ahead of married women, for some odd reason).  If you asked for the logic of this.....there isn't any logic.  

Impeachment Now Normal?

 Someone wrote a commentary today....that I read through and spent some time thinking about.  The question?  Is impeachment now a regular normal thing?

My general answer?  Yes.

I have no doubt that at least one more additional impeachment will be attempted on Donald Trump in the 18 months (prior to the November 2022 election).

All of this is staging a transformation for the House.  Once the Republicans arrive to control the House....I expect within a year....an attempt to impeach the Democratic President (Biden or Harris, it won't matter).  

It'll be expected and seen as a normal way of doing business.  The fact that Judge Roberts will refuse to participate in any more of these (my belief)?  It won't matter.

Achieving a success in the Senate?  It'll probably never happen.  But it's there as a theatrical piece, and just to needle the President a bit.   

Can Math Lead to White Supremacy?

 So this story unfolds....the Oregon Department of Education came out in the past month to suggest to teachers to take seminar training that involves “ethnomathematics.” 

In this suggestion, they are suggesting that plain regular math....leads to racism, and you need a special 'toolkit' to avoid racism in mathematics.  

Ethnomathematics?  It's a term invented in the mid-1970s in Brazil.  The suggestion, as it has evolved over the past fifty years....is that math is unfairly distributed to cultural groups and some have advanced....some have fallen behind.  

In simple terms....various cultural groups don't have the wit or knowledge level to perform simple mathematical calculations, and their advancement in society is prevented (racism of course is suspected).

I sat and thought about this.

As a kid...particularly from the 5th grade to the 9th grade....I was a dismal math student.

At some point in the 9th grade, maybe six weeks into the new year.....the instructor (new guy) had a chapter which was supposed to take three weeks to cover, test through, and reach a knowledge level for the next chapter.  Roughly twenty-four students in the group, and by the 3rd week....this test business was crapped-out (maybe six people passing out of 24).

It was so bad, that he decided an additional five days would be spent (covering the same material), and re-test.  That got around eight people up to the passing level out of 24).

So another week was added....covering the same material, and another test on Friday (he managed to get nine people of the 24 to pass).  I was in this group (getting around a 65 on the test).

A 6th week was now added....a complete practice test was done on Thursday, with every one of the ten questions laid out, and he used the same test the next day....getting all twenty-four to get a minimum of 60 on the test.

In simple terms....he was a lousy math teacher.

A year later....I had a math instructor who simply handed me the book and said to progress at my own speed....I wrapped up every single test with a 90 or above, and finished the book at the half-way point of the year.  Yeah, I was mostly bored by the whole class environment and simply needed the book to explain the details, and test out through each phase.  

To be blunt....we have an enormous number of math instructors (not just in high schools) who are marginally proficient at the art of teaching math.  

These kids or 'experts' claiming racism?  No....you've got crappy instructors, and math itself does not lead to white supremacy.

The obvious attempt here?  I would suggest they intend to dumb-down math....to the level that you finish high school with a 6th grade level of math.  Somewhere down the path in twenty years....new 'experts' will arrive and be furious over the number of dumb idiots at age 20 to 30....unable to do simple math formulas.  

What's the Difference Between the Bonus Army Riot and the Reichstag Fire?

 Well....this starts get interesting.

On 28 July 1932....the Bonus Army Riot finally occurred.  A veteran group from around January had started camping out and demanding the payment of their WW I money (set into law to be the early 1940s before the money would be paid out).  

The Senate had a vote and reaffirmed the commitment to the date, with a major riot started up by the veterans camped out on the SE end of the city.

Without real manpower to protect the capital....the President called upon the US Army to 'kick' the Bonus Army members out of town.

This event....captured in a rather negative way....became a major front-page episode and basically ended the Hoover re-election campaign.  FDR won in a massive way because of this portrayal.  

The Reichstag Fire?  It occurs roughly eight months later, and is blamed on a Dutch radical who supported the German Communist Party.  

The fire occurs roughly one month after Hitler becomes Chancellor of Germany.  It solidifies the public support behind Hitler and openly targets the Communist Party members as 'problems' to be corrected.

Did Hitler observe the Bonus Army Riot and realize the value of the trigger event?  

It just makes one wonder.

Why the Gitmo Conversation Always Lingers?

 Back around 2009/2010, President Obama had picked up the entire 'close-Gitmo' conversation and hinted (never promised) that things might change, and Gitmo (in Cuba) would close.  

The international community (mostly journalists) heaped praise upon President Obama, and it went at the core issue....HATE-BUSH.  Anything that Bush had done....had to be undone.

So weeks and months went by with the Obama-team who reviewed the whole Gitmo 'game'.

They had three central issues:

1.  The US Army had delivered some of the consumed individuals on Earth, who were driven to destroy either the US, or to kill Americans in general....to this little prison property that was not on US territory.  

2.  On this small stretch of land, there were only simple basic rights given to the prisoners.  The lawyers to defend these folks?  They had to arrange for permission to fly in....had to settle for what the judge gave them as 'rights'....and the guards were US military.

3.  If you ended Gitmo, where would you resettle Gitmo prisoners?  Into the US?  And if so, what state?  

At the end of the whole process....the problem left unanswered centered on where in the US that you would bring the prisoners?  At some point, Illinois was suggested.  That drove a fair amount of negativity in the state.  Then the subject got dropped.

So President Biden has started the same discussion.  The prisoner movement into the US?  I'm guessing that some element of the White House is thinking of some 'red-states' and thinking of creating a game to generate fake action.  

This whole thing to linger through 2021, 2022 and 2023?  I would suggest that.  

Biden 'Weapons' Chatter

 In general, if you use forty years of Biden-chatter as your 'tool'....95-percent of what he talks about or suggests....never occurs.  Even from the 5-percent that might accidentally get resolved or pushed.....you can count on half of that to marginally change or improve anything.  

Over the weekend, he got onto gun control, and telling the Congress that they need to do something.  

The key driving point?  He wants a list of weapons of war, that would be quickly evolving into a list of things that he could issue an EO upon and halt sales.

So could the AR-15 rifle be a 'weapon of war'?  No.  There is not a single country in the world that runs a military....that has purchase contracts for the AR-15 rifle.  None.

Yes, the M-16 is sold and could be on this 'weapon of war' listing.  But the AR-15 lacks full-auto capability.  Without that....it's useless in a war situation.  

AK-47?  Well....if it was designed and built as the semi-automatic role only....then it's in the same position....it can't be a 'weapon of war'.  The automatic version (typically not sold in the US)....is sold in different versions and used by a minimum of forty countries in military situations.  

Mayan spears from 700 years ago?  Well....you could make the case that they are 'weapons of war'.

Catapults?  You could make the case they also are weapons of war.

Swords?  You could make the case they also are weapons of war.

So all this chatter may just lead into a wide circle, and end up with nothing accomplished?  More or less.  

If you went into the heart of Detroit, and asked most urbanized middle-class families (even those who say they are Democratic-homes)....the vast majority will admit they have a weapon or two in the house.  Some might even admit that they have five or six guns in the house.  A few might even admit that they've had to shove the weapon in the face of a person at least once in their life.

AR-15s around the nation?  The current estimate is five to ten million in the hands of Americans....some Republican, some independent, and some Democratic.  I don't see much occurring here except Biden getting a front-page article and some House Democrats shaking their head because their district doesn't want anything really changed.  

(Just for the record, in 2010-2011....72k cases of confiscated knives in schools occurred, and no one really remarks much about stabbings or threats via a knife)

Money Topic

 I sat this morning, reading over a Covid-19 stimulus 'poll' done....involving that $1,400 check that DC guys intend to send out to folks.

The poll folks say that almost one-third of folks asked about this....say they won't spend the money (suggesting they'd push the whole check into savings and just sit on top of it).

If you ask the economic experts?  Well....they'd kinda like for you to spend the money....real quick.  They don't care....TV, new tires, new septic tank, fancy new refrigerator, or even a new rifle.

Identifying these folks?  No, there was not much done.  I suspect if you asked....they were in the safe zone...job still working, or retirement flow still in place.  

Should the stimulus deal been more structured?  Yeah....probably so.  But there in the House and Senate, you just aren't dealing with competent or capable people to figure that part of the issue out.  

Debt and Covid-19

 I sat and read a piece today....where journalists wanted me to know that 63-percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.....since Covid-19 started up.

I kind of sat there for a while....then looked up the pre-Covid-19 numbers.

Market Watch did a good update in January 2020 (before Covid-19 arrived). 

Their data....before Covid?  From Americans making $50k or less....74-percent were living paycheck to paycheck.

In fact, they went to suggest that from the $50k to $100k Americans....around one-third of them were in serious trouble, and making it by a paycheck to paycheck situation.

Then they went to the folks making $150k or more a year....one in four families were bad off, and suffering from a paycheck to paycheck situation.

So....suggesting now (14 Feb 2021) that 63-percent of Americans are bad off....if you use the 2020 statistical data.....they actually better now than before Covid.  

I am reminded of a DC story from the 2011/2012 era.  The local paper wrote up this piece of a couple who were about to default on their home loan.  The guy was pulling in around $130k a year....the wife was making near $160k a year.  Between credit debt, car loans (both had high-end cars that were valued at $40k or more), and a home that was up over $1-million....they weren't going to make it.   

The key thing here....people just aren't equipped to handle mortgages, loans, credit cards or living within your means.  They leave high school without this skill.  They leave college without this skill.  Then they get themselves deep into a mess with no real way to escape.  

So when you hear chatter about financial woes and want to get all hyped up....consider that it wasn't Covid-19 that got these people into serious issues.

The 14th Amendment 'Gimmick'

  The text in question that suggests it might be used on Trump?

There's a piece that says Congress has the power to 'banish' from any future federal public office....any current or retired American politician or military official...who is deemed by congress to have “engaged in insurrection.” 

Original purpose? This was a piece written by the Republicans shortly after the Civil War, and intended to prevent Civil War officers or politicians of the Confederacy from being elected to Congress or the presidency.

Yes, the 'evil' Republicans created this....against the 'double-evil' Democrats of the south.

Can you be 14thed and then have another vote to redeem your 'bad-boy' status?  Yes.  That's the funny thing about the written text.

Various Confederate officers who never were 14thed?  Yeah, that's also part of the story (count in General Joe Wheeler, who would be a House member in 1880, and then appointed as a General in 1898 for the Spanish-American War).

The three key problems here?

1.  You would open up the whole history of the Civil War and basically admit that the text was designed for bad-boy Democrats.  Trump's people would seize on this moment, and the opening of the history discussion might shock some folks.

2.  Even if you did accomplish the 14th goal of preventing Trump future office....the whole 2022 campaign season would then be about getting the 'right' people in, and undoing the whole 14th gimmick.  In simple words, the whole election would be about your position on Trump, and nothing else.

3.  Finally, the insurrection-chatter gets opened up....completely.  You could have weekly 14th meetings where various public officials were guilty of triggering insurrections (not just around DC, but around various states and urbanized communities).  Dozens of Antifa and BLM folks might suddenly get named via the 14th and can never participate in an election...even as a city council member.  Pelosi?  She could be accused of insurrection words which trigger a 14th meeting and she could be dumped.  

So opening up the 14th 'bridge' and thinking it'll solve your problems....no, it'll just complicate things even more.  

You could easily have a hundred people accused for 14th amendment purposes and Congress would be drawn into weekly sessions to judge so-and-so....on insurrection behavior.  

It Was Not the Scripted End

 In the final hours of Impeachment version 2.0.....this odd event occurred.

The House impeachment team wanted to open the final day of the episode by trying to depose Rep Beutler (R) who had some memory they wanted to dispute....so they wanted the witness business to open up.

It was put to a vote among the Senators...that witnesses would be allowed (55 voted in favor that it'd be fine to have 'witness-time').

So as the House folks laid out their deal....Trump's team said fine, and put up a list of 300-plus witnesses they wanted to call.

On this list....Rep Pelosi (House Speaker) was even noted.  

At this moment, the whole thing was 'doomed' (my words for the event).

Where this was leading?  Three basic issues:

1.  With 300-plus witnesses, you can figure that it'd take a minimum of a week to line them up with paperwork to show up.  If they failed?  I would imagine Federal Marshalls would be involved, and this whole thing would get rather messy.

2.  Doing witness-time with 300-plus folks?  You could be talking about four additional weeks....maybe even six weeks....of additional time.  This would have shut down the Senate entirely for the rest of Feb, and probably all of March.

3.  Finally, you would have drawn Pelosi into a sworn testimony situation.....with tons of potential that she'd admit that she hadn't had much hands-on business with the Sergeant-at-Arms people or the Capital Police.  Admitting that would have destroyed the event script for the 6th of January 'event'.

So it ended shortly after that hour....when the House folks say 'no'.....they didn't need witnesses after all.

Are we totally done now?  

No....I would expect another attempt at impeachment by the end of 2021.  I also expect the 14th Amendment process to come up.  Between now and November 2022.....the House and Senate will waste a minimum of three additional months of anti-Trump action.

That much fear of him in November 2022?  Yeah.  The House will go to another level, and I suspect five to eight Senators are looking at the end of their careers.  

A New Mystery: Waun Mawn

 For a long time, folks have been studying the stones used at the Stonehenge complex, and there's this new idea that has come out.  The stones there....are used stones.  

Meaning?  Well....they were originally standing up at a location that is roughly 200 kilometers away (Waun Mawn).  The suggestion here is that around 3000 years BC....this group of folks just packed up, and left Waun Mawn, for the present location.

Why?  Unknown.  

Proven theory?  Well....no.  It bothers a lot of people to suggest this idea, and they are asking why the people with the 'cult' would take such a drastic move.

It's not like you calling your cousin 'Marvin' to say things have hit maximum density there in the valley, and you've decided to move 120 miles NW.  Then you mention to Marvin, you got 100 stones....some weighing 25 tons....that are part of the move.  Marvin's enthusiasm to be helpful probably won't go that far.

So this brings me to the oddball question....what would drive a bunch of cult-folks to this extreme level.....picking up all their rocks....then resetting the whole operation in another valley 200-odd kilometers away?

Years to accomplish this?  Here's the thing....you would need the stones placed in a precise pattern to 'aim' at the summer/winter Equinox business.  If you understood the pattern (having a 365 day calendar already)....maybe you could do this in one single year of calibration.  

But what would drive you to this extreme amount of work?  Even if you had two-thousand folks in the cult-community....the planning and execution of this move would take a huge amount of effort.

So, we are left with a new mystery....what went wrong at Waun Mawn?  

The Tax Story

 This is a rather simple story, and it has a thousand implications.

Once upon a time, NY state had a real income situation, with money flowing on a constant basis.  

Then at some point, going back to the 1980s probably....they extended themselves and got into debt.  Presently, if you counted everything up....it's nearly 350-billion total (NY City has the bulk of this).

The state needs more money, so the newest gimmick being discussed in the state capital is a tax on stock transfers.

Reaction by the New York Stock Exchange?  They sent a blunt letter to the state capital and said if you do this....we will leave the state.  What happens now?  

If you look around at commentary by the business community....they don't think that the state folks have the guts to go through with the tax.

But they generally point out three odd factors in this entire discussion:

1.  Maybe up until the 1980s, there was still 'industry' in the state and something to balance out things.  Well...there just isn't much made in NY state anymore.  

2.  It used to be a big deal for companies to have established headquarters in NY City, and openly brag that they were based there.  It's not that way anymore.

3.  Ever since spring of 2020....when Covid-19 arrived, folks in Manhattan (the movers and shakers of society/NY City)...have been leaving (not just the downtown region, but the state itself).  By the fall of 2020, it was generally figured that half-a-million people had left.  The expectation by the end of 2021?   If you count up that early group, the present group, and the rest or the year....it's probably going to be in the 1.2-million that left town.

The state, in simple terms....is screwed.

If they got real stupid and taxed the stock exchange folks?  It'd take less than one year for them to move.  They've likely already completed a survey of best places to move.  The sites are probably either in Florida or Texas.  

If they packed and left?  You could probably go and erase at least another 200k residents from the city, and figure a hundred-odd businesses (from bars to restaurants) would shut down within six months as well.

But here's the thing....if you don't tax these folks, who are you going to tax?  There just aren't any 'golden cows' left on the farm (they all wandered away).  

Observations

 1.  The more you look at this insurrection chatter....the more it resembles 5th grader kids throwing eggs onto 6th grader kids. 

2.  This 22-million Jeep ad for the Super Bowl with Bruce Springsteen?  Well....now we find out that he's got DWI charges coming up and he seems more like a washed-up 1980s singer with a serious drinking problem.  Where was the review of the guy for hiring him for the ad?  Unknown.

3.  I read a piece today that suggested if the $15 minimum wage business happens....child care costs across the US....will surge around 20-percent in a matter of days.

4.  Ever heard of Rivian?  They are the Tesla-like company that Amazon is kinda sponsoring, and they are headed toward a September IPO deal (their stock will be opened up).  What they tend to make (at least they suggest that)?  SUVs, delivery vehicles, hearty-looking trucks.  

5.  There's speculation going on....that the CCP folks (China) might be fully engaged in influence-peddling on US college campuses.  Some folks think this isn't a big deal.  Some folks think it's the end of US as we know it.  I'd just look at this and note that all the Russian KGB people who had easy pickings in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s in the same college environment....simply got replaced.  

A One-Pony Show

 Around 1990, I sat and watched the Super Bowl (number 24).  

The game was basically over in the first quarter (SF would be leading Denver 13-to-3).  It was one of the most dismal games I'd ever seen played (at least by NFL standards).  Somewhere in the second quarter, I turned it off (around the 3rd touchdown of the game).  The half-time score would be 27-3....SF in the lead.  

The next day, around the work area, there was some chatter over the game (55 to 10 was the final score).  Some guy had actually selected SF to win by 40 points in the betting pool around the base that existed (illegally of course), and taken a sizeable chunk of money home.

The odd thing that I tended to get out of that day's chatter....about half of folks actually turned the game off somewhere around the half-time to 3rd quarter point.  There were various explanations but most would just say it was a pretty dismal event to watch unfold.  

As yesterday's impeachment episode ended....3rd day.....I can say that I've watched maybe three minutes of actual feed.....maybe another twenty minutes of dramatic explanations (mostly by Bill O'Reilly and the Crowder 'team').  Beyond that, it just seems to be a loser-situation looking like the SF-Denver Super Bowl game.  

There is virtually no reason to watch such poor legal work and virtually no real investigation.  The hype that there are seven dead now....not five?  Again, it's part of a big mystery which no one seems to know much about.  Facts?  Mostly non-existent.  Two cops dead by suicide but there's virtually nothing discussed about the two or their lifestyles.  The two guys dead from a heart-attack?  They seem to avoid pictures of the two, but I'd suspect if you showed either....they probably were in the 250-pound-plus range and pretty stressed out.  

News people in abundance?  Well....talking 99-percent speculation....1-percent facts.  

Even Putin's crowd has to be laughing over this.....a wild party (at least everyone is talking about), but there's virtually no booze, no chips, no dip, and no music.  Just a bunch of mostly guys talking about what they imagine in a one-pony-town, and the wildest thing anyone remembers the next day is that some dog barked, and some guy threw up in the parking lot.  

The Idealistic 'BS'

 This past week, I tried to make sense out of a developing story....involving the NBA Dallas Mavericks basketball team, the National Anthem, mass media, and the White House.

So the Mavericks went and made up a rule that you didn't have to play the National Anthem at the beginning of games.  The hint was.....we didn't need that American-kind-of-stuff....it's a bold new world that we live in.

Part of this episode....I think....revolves around the international sales of the NBA gimmick to places outside of the US (I won't state the obvious country, but you can guess).

So this National Anthem thing quickly grabbed attention.  In Texas....a lot of negative attention.  With the NBA headquarters, because the owner hadn't discussed this tactic....a lot of attention.

The NBA 'lords' quickly said 'no', telling the Mavericks not to start this trend.  It wasn't the direction that the league wanted to entertain.

So the media came to the White House press speaker....Jen Psaki....and she said that President supported the mavericks (really owner Mark Cuban).  Chief reason?  Well...."They felt the anthem didn't represent them" (referring to the players or fans of the clubs).  The the comment was said: “we as a country haven’t lived up to our highest ideals. (Presidents observation)

I sat there for a fair amount of time....pondering over this.

Generally, around the globe, if you opened up the back-door and said immigration is totally open....you'd have around 500-million people want 'in' and frankly....they don't give a damn about this 'living up to highest ideals' BS (sorry if I offend you).

Just from China alone, if you had the 'free-ticket' for entry into the US, there's probably 50-million Chinese who would sign up and just skip the ideals chatter. 

On highest ideals?  Well, when you had Nazis walking Jews into concentration camps....and you needed some impossible Army to come out of nowhere and just halt the atrocities going on.....you weren't looking for idealistic people, you just wanted some rough characters who'd be willing to land on Normandy in impossible conditions.....hike across Europe, and bring down the Nazi apparatus. 

Presidents, Senators, and cabinet officers may attempt to portray themselves as idealistic, but idealism doesn't really deliver much.  It's the non-idealistic folks that matter in the end.  It's determined and sometimes rough characters who fill sandbags....help folks when tornados have decimated a neighborhood....brought supplies into hurricane affected areas....or sheltered folks in the middle of blizzards.  

Did the President even name the violations of people who failed on 'highest ideals'?  No, he just left it out there. He didn't want to suggest that probably both Republicans and Democrats have failed.  He didn't want to chat over justices or judges who failed.  He didn't want to mention a hundred-odd military officers who failed.  Maybe this chat would be worth a whole afternoon on the front porch....but in the news media frame of the landscape....it's a 1-star topic.

The idea of rough characters?  They are folks who'd you call around 10 PM....explain your favorite cow was having birthing troubles with the Vet just unwilling to come out, and this neighbor would come over and spend three hours working the issue and save the cow and calf at 1 AM.  It wasn't ideals that resolved this....it was determination and the character of the neighbor you called.

It's the same way when some guy is thrashed around by some accident and seriously injured to the extent that he can't handle his crops or tend to his farm.  Then some tough folks step....fairly determined and full of character to see that things get done, and the injured guy doesn't have to worry about his situation.

So if you are looking for some idealistic nation....maybe just skip that BS, and settle for people who have determination in their blood and fully capable of handling some rough situations in life, without the social media 'fakeness'. 

Casino Chatter in Alabama

 For 202 years, Alabama has been fairly 'pure'.....without any real attachment to casino operations or organized gambling.  

Well....to be honest, we always had illegal gambling operations around....over the entire 202 years.  It's just that we didn't let Grandma or the local Baptist minister know of our immoral activities. 

Drinking, carousing, bad-boy activities, 'raising cain' and going on a spree has always been in our blood.

In recent weeks....down at the capital....chatter started up by a state senator, Del Marsh.   He's got a bill up to have five official casinos running, and even suggesting to add two more.

The income?  Well...he says $500-million from casino operations, fees, etc.  

Where the money would go?  Generally, the bulk would go to junior college scholarships, more broadband internet access, plus-up on rural health care, some added mental health care, and then folks say 'other programs' (never really explained.  

Who would run this?  The suggest is that a seven-member Alabama Gaming Commission would be in charge.  No one says who'd be on the Commission or what you'd pay them (my assumption is that it's a $100k a year salary, with probably $25k in travel allowance.

An Indian reservation in this deal?  That's the funny part of the story.  We have a couple of Indian groups in Alabama, with most all leading back to the Creek Indians.  This one group....the Poarch Band (group) of the Creeks....apparently own some property in NE Alabama, and they figure to be one of the five getting a license to run a casino.

So the key question one might ask (if you were from Alabama)....are people fired-up to go and spend a lot of time at casinos.  I would suggest that this is a mixed bag.

It's a lot of Baptist influence in the state and I'd suggest that 25-percent of population aren't going to be receptive to casino 'fun'.  There's another 25-percent of the state that I think are firmly attached to a low-income level and could never afford more than one visit a year to a Casino.  

So from the folks left....is there enough business to run potentially seven casino operations?  I have my doubt.

In the state of Georgia, there is just one single casino.  Mississippi?  36 (yeah, a lot).  Tennessee?  None.  It would appear that some hope exists that folks from Tennessee and Georgia....would come over and gamble to some extent.

As for the money dished out to the state?  There's already an argument brewing that it's not fair that only rural areas get the healthcare money.....that urbanized Alabama areas ought to get the 'loot' as well.

I sat and pondered over this.  You see....in the majority of Alabama counties, you'd label them as mostly rural, and maybe one single general hospital in the entire county.  I would suggest in roughly forty of the sixty-seven counties....it's slim picking for healthcare (especially if you started talking mental issue or the 'crazy-factor').  If you lived around Mobile, Huntsville, or Birmingham?  You've got a fairly good number of clinics and hospitals.  

But the other side of this story is that the bulk of poor sections of the state....are also around most of the urbanized areas.  Yeah, it begs a lot of questions, but it's the reality of the situation.

Where this whole casino thing goes in the end?  I suspect the $500-million income that the folks are talking about.....might be way over the reality of the situation, and that it might only be in the $250-to-$300-million range. All these programs that they chat over, for education, fast internet and more healthcare?  They will be programmed up the first year, and come to a serious shortfall by year two/three.  More taxes coming?  To make up for the shortfall?  Yeah, I'd suggest by 2024, there's some 5-percent bump up on income taxes coming because the programs never got enough Casino 'loot'.

Who gets appointed to this Commission?  Don't even go and bring that topic up. I'd suggest within a decade....at least five individuals will be investigated by the state or Feds....to have some charges drawn up.  Knowing our luck, at least two of the first seven members of the Commission will be former Baptist ministers or retired NCAA football coaches.  

But here's the thing.....instead of these stupid excuses we've made about secret trips to Vegas.....we can just stay in-state and spend our wealth at local casino operations....sipping cheap drinks and hooking up with lusty women from Brazil or the Ukraine.  

Our gambling habits requiring rehab treatment?  Well...maybe in this healthcare business....free counseling and rehab will be available for our gambling addiction.  

Finally, for those guys who dreamed of the $17...steak buffet deal where you got a dozen 3-star steaks thrown on the platter....casino dinner options will be a curious thing to experience.  

Vaccine Issues?

 I sat and read over the headline this morning:

'Iranian ayatollah says COVID-19 vaccine has turned people into 'homosexuals'.

What I could get out of this essentially ten-line story is that this Ayatollah guy has been told something and is firmly convinced that guys getting the vaccine shot....flip out and turn gay.

Vaccine chiefly in use in Iran?  The Russian version.

Any factual data here?  Well....no.  If this were some kind of hidden agenda, the Russians would have made it so the vaccine caused you to 'get stupid' or 'grow a tail, or 'feel freaky'.

The trouble now?  Well....you have to figure a whole bunch of Iranian guys are going to deny the shot, get Covid-19, and some will die off.

If this rumor got around the US?  I would imagine some gays would start reporting that they suddenly felt 'straight', and get all upset about this change of landscape.

I wish CNN or MSNBC would go out and hire this Ayatollah guy to be a morning commentator....to freshen up their stagnant chatter.  

The 10,000 Ton Boat Anchor on Biden

 Basically, the clock is ticking and there are 1,365 days until the next election.

If Biden goofs up on the economy, triggers the loss of 2-million-plus jobs, has unemployment up around 6.5-percent, and has settled massive taxation upon the public.....then Trump runs and wins.   

The blame for the downward spiral of the economy?  It goes entirely to Biden.

So every single day that some brilliant idea comes up to push taxes up....shut down various industries, or cause economic issues to boil....some guy or gal on the team will bring up the ticking clock and if Biden really wants to go and f**k with the economy. 

Biden will shake with rage, but he's basically in a race to do almost nothing to the economy or face helping Trump to make a comeback.

Bernie Sanders and Senator Warren will be furious, but this weight upon Biden is tremendous.  

I do agree....they will all chat a lot, but in terms of getting a consensus going and willing nature to get something done?  They have to be constantly worried.  

Ten Things I've Come to Notice or Anticipate

 1.  The chief problem with wokeism....you will eventually run out of clowns who have some perceived feeling over racial justice or social issues.  

2.  If you developed a checklist for non-essential values....you'd be shocked to find out that politicians aren't that essential, while topless dancers seem to actually have value (at least in getting you to buy more drinks or spending on lap dances).

3. People now watch televised political chatter....like they watch professional wrestling.  There's good guys, bad guys, and fake referee action always taking place.  Some guys get run out of town, and then some guys get 'revamped' then return to town.

4.  There's probably some Biden-team organized up now....to find some trick job-training gimmick (instead of coding), when two or three million jobs are lost by the summer of 2022.  Their chief problem....they've never been around working-class people, so they aren't that sure about who they are trying to help.

5. In some darken corner of the White House....President Biden probably has a Alexia set up and connected into the wall, and about every three hours....he's asking it to resolve such-and-such problem.  Then some funny voice comes over it....kinda like Trump's voice....giving Biden some bone-headed answer.

6.  I expect by the end of 2021....some folks will be demanding that the Beatles 'White Album' be renamed because it suggests supremacy.  The same folks however, can't name a single song from the album.

7.  I expect some PhD study to be done on kids in the Chicago region this spring, and results to come as schools let out.  The results?  Most 5th-grade kids are at the 3rd-grade level with all the days out because of Covid-19.  Oddly enough, they also will point out from the 5th-graders that went to the 6th-grade, four percent were more than capable of handling the 6th-grade already and probably ought to skip onto the 7th-grade.  

8.  At some point this year, 62-percent of academics will admit they really don't know what socialism is, but if it pays more than capitalism...they are all for it.

9.  I expect some kid in California this year to demand his right to be a Klingon warrior, and be recognized with the right in school to carry around a Klingon sword.  

10.  After all the Biden EO's fall into place, the immigration folks will be faced with this one single guy who claims to be Honduran but doesn't speak any Spanish.  Badar Sanchez will be given a 100-question test on Honduras and know less than three facts about the country.  Eventually, he'll be sent to some US government project to teach him Spanish and the history of Honduras.....so that they can eventually work with him and get placed properly in the US.  A year into this, Badar admits he was originally from Afghanistan, and he's fairly messed up now....knowing more about Honduras than the US.  

Observations

 1.  Since day one of the National Guard deployment into the 'Green Zone' of Washington DC....the cost factor is presently at $483-million (figure the hotel situation, meals, per diem paid to the Guardsmen, and getting from 'home' to the 'Green Zone').  Reported here.

Odds of this continuing past 1-billion?  I would actually and suggest it being near $2 billion before the entire episode is ended.

2.  I noticed that the CBO folks, who analyze projects for Congress....came to study the $15-an-hour wage deal.  In their judgement, approximately 1.4-million jobs would be cancelled out (gone).

If you figure the timing of this....if this were pushed toward the end of 2021....the 1.4-million folks would be ripe for discontent just as the mid-terms come around.  So I'd just go and suggest this wage deal is number one on Biden's 'to-do' list which will be halted or cancelled.

3.  The George Floyd murder trial will start in roughly a month.  It came up yesterday that the governor of Minnesota has ordered activation of the National Guard for this period of time (figure a minimum of two months).  

How many?  Unknown....the governor has been tight-lipped over how many are going to be 'deployed'. The police admit that they are somewhere between 10 and 20 percent undermanned presently for Minneapolis.  

Fear of riots?  There's a certain fear that all four policemen will be acquitted or it'll be a hung-jury.  

Chatting Over the Constitution

 For roughly fifty years, my home-state of Alabama has often talked about the idea of writing a new state constitution.  This occurs almost yearly now and it generally goes nowhere.  

The present Constitution?  It's been around since 1901.  To be honest, it's got various problems in it....if you go and actually read it.

So this week, I'm starting a reading and commentary over the state Constitution.

Section 86: It has to deal with stopping or suppressing dueling, which had already become a problem as they wrote the original Constitution in 1819.

The basic words?

"The legislature shall pass such penal laws as it may deem expedient to suppress the evil practice of dueling."

It wasn't really a freedom....it was like a stringent weight put upon the legislature....to make any type of law which would prevent 'evil' dueling (rather than 'decent' dueling).

The odds that alcohol helped to fuel the act in the late 1700s to the 1819 period?  Well....we do have certain issues in our consumption of booze in Alabama.

Do we really need secretion 86?  No....this is one of those things that probably ought to be removed.  

I'll be doing at least one of these per day, for the next ten days.  If you wanted to read it yourself?  Go over to this site.

The Trouble with Bibble-Babble

 President Biden spoke this week and said this:

"We expect these additional 200 million doses to be delivered this summer ... by the midsummer that this vaccine will be there. That increases the total vaccine order in the United States by 50% from 400 million ordered to 600 million. This enough vaccine to fully vaccinate 300 Americans by end of the summer, the beginning of the fall. I want to repeat, it will be enough to fully vaccinate 300 Americans."

There's a piece entitled "Joe Biden's Bibble-Babble", written by R. Emmett Tyrrell, and is worth a read.  

I underlined four pieces out of the quote....which really don't make sense, and Tyrrell talks about this....as 'Bibble-Babble'.  

The problem here....as you sit and try to view a speech or commentary by the President....you have to sit and interpret what he said....what he meant, and then wonder if he is disconnected or it's just an age-problem.

When he reads off the monitor?  No issue.  It's when he's unfocused and starts to gaze away....then screw up on a word here and there.

The real problem here?  Folks sit there in France, Russia, and Germany.....looking at the verbiage used, and do the translations.....then ask the translator....did you screw up again?  So they start to realize....week after week....that Bibble-Babble is normal.  

The best advice I can offer?  Try not to pay attention to what he says....just let the CNN guy tell you the final word, and he's got the real notes from the White House staff to correct issues.  If you don't like that?  Well....you need to think about these things ahead of time and vote in a different manner. 

The fact that you are going to get 400 of these speeches each year?  It should be entertaining, to say the least.   

"Virtually Touring?"

 I sat and watched the White Press Conference from yesterday (Friday).  

So on Monday, President Biden will apparently 'tour' a vaccination production facility....by virtually being there.  

What that means?  Some volunteer from the White House (maybe a whole team) will be sent to the location....given some geeky equipment, and do the walk with the camera giving Biden reference points and talking points by the director of the place.  

Odds of comments by production workers?  Probably, with Biden commenting back to them...'keep it Pony-Soldier' or 'Americas counting on you'.  There's probably a cheat sheet with 300 Biden-isms already typed up and ready for the 'big-guy' to comment upon.

Why not actually go there?  That wasn't made clear by Psaka.

If you asked me....there's a tight control on sleeping hours and performances required for President Biden.  If you woke the guy up at 4 AM, and got him on a plane by 7 AM....his peak is probably from 8 to 12.  From that point on, it's anyone's guess how things go.

This being the norm for 2021?  It wouldn't shock me if he has fewer than 30 actual appearances in the year, and most around Washington DC itself.  

One other side of this....if you had personal appearances where the crowds might be anti-Biden, it'd really start to suggest that the nation isn't behind him, and there is a serious public issue with him.  By going virtual....you avoid that situation.