In the coming weeks, a rather unusual bank collapse will occur....mostly because of the results of commercial real estate situations, with the banks stuck with property that won't re-sell, and loans gone bad....mostly because of Covid-results .
It resembles 1929 to some degree....because you end up adding this problem, housing mortgages, colossal debt with credit cards, companies downsizing, and gov't debt (growing by the billions per week).
We didn't have Donald Trump in 1929.
What we mostly had was zero experts on the economy, President Hoover (who didn't really understand the issues at hand), a bunch failed banks lingering (maybe for the whole of the 1920s) and a Fed that was unwilling to take any action.
So, enter stage left....President Donald Trump in January.
I expect over 2025....one out of every four federal employees to be let go.
I expect the US military footprint in Europe to basically cease, and most re-based back into the US by the end of 2026.
I expect the continuing resolution 'gimmick' on budgets...to end. It'll be a dramatic 3-month period where Trump refuses to cooperate unless a different way of gov't operations is written into law.
I expect the biggest tax reform effort in 100 years to occur in 2024.
Finally, I expect a bunch of banks to be read the 'riot-act' and given notice of audits to be a regular affair from this point on.
