Fleeing Story

 I sat and read through this brief story today.  'Some' Californians have said....they would prepare to leave.  Number?  Never clear.  If I were guessing....might be in the 3,000 to 5,000 range 'talking' about doing this.

Where they'd go?  Unknown.  I might imagine Costa Rica, Panama, Aruba, Canada, etc.

Staying for four years?  That's the part I doubt.  Some might 'like' Central America-living....Canada?  Harsh winters will convince most to pack up and leave after a year.  

But here's the funny thing....these are all people with income (real money).  If you had 5,000 to 10,000 up and leave....the state tax office might get hyped-up and track them down...telling them of a tax connection still existing.

Just an odd story.

What Happens in 70-Odd Days?

 My list would typically be 300 items long, but I'll keep it brief:

1.  Trump engages NOW with Putin, laying down the deal....to occur the first week in office.  Deal?  Putin agrees to move all forces out of Ukraine....keeping the Crimea.  Economic sanctions on Russia would likely end within 2 weeks of this pull-out.  The US agrees to remove those 'new' missiles in Germany....ASAP.  The US further agrees to most US troops to be removed within 18 months from Europe (I'd suggest Naples Port stays, and some fighter wing ends up in Poland).  US remains in NATO, with a lite-presence of EUCOM (somewhere in Germany).  US writes in stone....no further members to be added to NATO.  Putin and Trump meet face-to-face by end of March (my humble guess....in Hungary).  

Putin can say to the Russian public.....he pushed back against NATO and their expansion....winning.  The US can finally downsize it's footprint in Europe.  

Trump tells Nobel-Prize folks....he's got enough on his plate....no need to waste some prize on him.  

2.  US funds going to bio-labs outside of the US?  Finally ended.

3.  All J-6 prisoners pardoned.  Full exam of evidence.....some House members could be charged with criminal behavior.  

4.   At least two Supreme Court Judges giving noticed of retirement in July (Thomas is one of them).

5.  ALL JFK data released.  Some evidence will exist that Oswald was a paid employee of the CIA (probably most shocking piece/detail).

6.  Commission appointed to review automation in the voting process....it's failures.  Commission will recommend a national ID card (to be handled by Social Security folks).....at no cost to citizens.

7.  87,000 IRS agents....given termination notices.

8.  Venezuelan gangs in the US given top priority....at least 3,000 Nat'l Guardsmen and over 1,000 US Marshalls sent on a mission to find/arrest them.

9.  Border established as top priority to secure.

10.  Audit of all Senators/House members on stocks owned/purchased. 

If there were a '11'.....Fluoride is ordered by March to end being mandated in the water-supply.  

Explaining The End Of The Election?

 I could write a 300-page book over this....but I'll limit it to five central themes:

1.  Removing Joe Biden back in the fall of 2023 should have been a priority....then having a true primary would have occurred....with Kamala Harris very unlikely to be in this present race.

2.  All this court-crap on Trump?  Whoever designed this out of the White House....just made things worse in the end.  

3.  Selling Twitter to Elon?  That was a five-star mistake.

4.  The Gaza 'war' and Biden's attachment to Israel?  It ended up upsetting a fair number of Democratic voters.

5.  One central figure out of the White House should have been given the task in 2021....to manage the economy.  By just pretending something positive was going on....was  not enough.

The Hunter-woes?  It's amazing how bad things got....with a four-star scandal just laying there constantly.  

Explaining The Bank Crisis

 To explain the current approaching banking crisis.....you have three key issues.

First, since the 2008 mess.....fixing the banks has not been a priority....so a fair number of problems still relate to business practices allowed to continue.

Second, we have this brewing problem with treasury bonds that the banks bought at inopportune times....with some holding bonds that aren't paying well.  On their books, the crappy-paying bonds can't be resolved or  fixed.  BoA stands in the middle of this particular problem.

Third, we come to a magnificent issue of failed commercial real estate of epic proportion.  

For decades....people and companies came to banks for commercial real estate loans.  They wanted to  operate hotels, office-buildings, restaurants, bars, and malls.  X-property was worth $10-million....the bank made the loan, and up to the Covid-era....this strategy worked, with banks making money.

Covid and the home-office routines....with diminished business....messed-up the whole strategy.

Example?  X-company would own a office building with 25 tenants (lawyers, doctors, accountants, etc).  Home-office crapped on 8 of the tenants, and they don't need max-office-space.  Those eight ended up exiting the building.   New tenants?  They can't be found.  Income from the remaining 17 tenants?  It's enough to cover the mortgage, but not enough to cover maintenance, security, and operational costs.  Selling the property for what you paid for it?  Won't happen.    So eventually, you write up a bankruptcy situation  and approach the bank to hand the the keys. Bank selling it for what the loan was for?  No....that's a wish but won't happen.

So the bank goes to a auction, and discovers the $10-million structure is worth around $3.5-million.  Some bank official signs off on the 'loss', and the bank sits there quietly with a growing list of losses.

This occurs at the local, the regional and the national banks.

Quietly, banks are escalating fees....to cover losses, and the loss-sheets are reaching a point where it'll be public knowledge.

If you notice....the Berkshire have dumped a lot of stock in banks in the past six months....sitting on a ton of cash.

So, what's the be the end?  Banks admit this serious loss, and need saving.  Sadly, FDIC doesn't have the money to cover this.  They would turn to Yellen and Congress.  Well....Yellen would typically go and sell treasury bonds. Yet, at this point....who really wants treasury bonds, at 4.25-percent?  China?  No.  

My expectation is....by the end of January....this mess reaches the point where Berkshire is the ONLY ones willing to buy treasury bonds, but at some rate like 5.25-to-5.5 percent.  Debt issues for the United States?  OH YEAH....this will drag up a five-star mess....requiring either major cuts or major taxes. 

Oh, and if you were wondering....Berkshire has 330-plus BILLION ready to spend.  

BoA surviving?  Only if Berkshire helps them....meaning a massive amount of ownership/supervision by Berkshire in the future.

But this drags me to the key problem....all this excess commercial property....hotels, restaurants, malls, etc....the gov't has to absorb this and 'dump' it.  Where does it go and who would take on possibly tens of thousands of prosperities.....that have lost 50-plus percent of value?

As much as this election stuff involves Trump/Harris....it's really about who will inherit the mess, and if things match up to 1929. 

Ending my observation?  Well....ONE Berkshire share is currently (for the A-stock) around $666,000.  I will say if you could  just afford to buy one single share....it's likely to double in value within three years.