Normally, Oregon would go to the Democrats....in most all elections of the past fifty years. I think it's close enough in reality now....to be a Trump-win.
Observations:
In 2016, Trump carried 782k votes (39-percent of the vote). Libertarian candidate Johnson? He took 4.7 percent (94k votes). Johnson is around in this election, and the Libertarian candidate isn't attracting that much attention. So I would suggest 50k votes going from this group in 2020, to Trump.
Added to it....around the five major urban areas of the state....this defund the police effort, rioting, looting....has escalated local feelings in a negative way. So I'm forecasting roughly 120k of Hillary's 1-million votes in 2016....will go to Trump.
Finally, when you go and count the Latino and black vote in the state.....which the vast number in 2016 went to Clinton....I would suggest that near 20k of such votes this time around....will go to Trump.
By my math....190k votes flipping to Trump. The unknown factor? How many democrats got sour and left for the Republicans in the past year or two? Difference without knowing this number between Trump and Biden....probably a difference of only 3k to 5k. Biden might still win, but this unknown factor of Democrats who left the party is what would make it a Trump-win.
Shocker? At the end of this evening, if Trump were to win Oregon....it's be a massive state of disbelief among far-left folks in the state, and likely to trigger more riots in Portland (once again).
