Is Black Friday (26 November) the Drop-Dead Date for Chaos in Logistics?

 Well....yes.

If you walk into most stores and the electronics area is only 50-percent 'full' or toy area is barely 70-percent 'full'....then it'll be noticed and by Saturday afternoon.....the shelves will be empty.

The effort by Amazon for damage control?  I suspect you will get 'ordered' when you sign on and 'click'.....but get a message four days later to say the item is on back-order.  New delivery date?  Probably four to six weeks away....if you are lucky.

So it'll start by Monday after Black Friday....people asking President Biden how to resolve this and getting a 8-minute speech on how things were in WW II, or how Covid is with us in the long term.

Settle back and prepare for that Monday, and how you view the landscape from that point on.  

If You Tried to Bring back Petticoat Junction or The Brady Bunch Today

 The producers would automatically mandate that there has to be some type of sexual connection.

So from Petticoat Junction:

Uncle Joe would have be iron-clad gay and mostly attracted to NY City guys.

Kate Bradley (the hotel gal) would have to be an transsexual (originally named Bob).

At least one of the three daughters would have to be a lesbian.

Sam Drucker would have to be into new fetish every single week.

From the Brady Bunch?

Carol (the wife) would have three to five lovers on the side.

Bobby (at age 13) would be attracted to only black women over the age of 30.

Mike (the husband) would have disco-dance routines only with men.

Alice (the housekeeper) would be swinging on Friday nights with various Hispanic men over the age of 65.

So this is the problem of producing a show today, because a quarter of the population wants to know the sexual action of each character.

Was Maxwell Smart only into women?  Was Mr Ed only interested in female horses? Did Timmy (from Lassie) grow up and run off to Silver City with Nurse Watson?  Was Otis from Mayberry never hooking up with the post office lady?  Why was Hoss from Bonanza not married at age 35?  Did Detective Dietrich (Barney Miller) wear silky women's clothing after wrapping up duty?  Was Ed Dawson from Green Acres secretly dressing up on weekends as Queen Elizabeth?  Why was Scotty from Star Trek never hooking with the Andorian alien women?  

I know....it's some weird consequence of society....that a quarter of the population wants the 'down-and-dirty' of fictional characters.  It's like we couldn't get enough lusty stuff out of Baywatch, and we want triple the amount of lust out of fiction. 

The question is....have we peaked, or will this get worse over the next decade?

 

Feeling the Pain

 The chatter over missing items for Christmas presents grows louder.  

I noticed an electronics expert identifying both cellphones and smart-watches as items which will be in very short supply this morning in the business news.

The kid-toy experts?  Already saying if you don't have the gift here in October in your hands.....it's probably too late.  

So, who to blame?

Biden or the next dozen people under him?  You can't really make that case.  You could go out to the ports of SF, LA, Portland and Seattle.....asking why the major cranes aren't working around the clock, and get some dopey answer from the union chief there.  Some people are suggesting that a lack of truckers also fits into this problem.

Here's the thing though....if you had $1,000 which was generally spent on gifts from Black Friday to the 24th of December, and you barely spent $250 of that.....what happens to the economy?  What happens to sales tax revenue?  What happens to the store fronts which pay $10k a month for rent/utilities?  

If that path slows down.....what about the brake pads for your car which you'd take in for a tune-up in February.....only to be told the pads are on back order and won't be there for another six weeks?

Your watch band breaks and you show up at x-shop.....wanting a particular style of band....only to be told this is on back order, and it won't be there for at least two months?

Your new washing machine breaks, and the warranty (thank God) is still in effect.  You call George to repair it.  So George looks at the problem....diagnoses the broke part....only to tell you it's on back order and not to expect it for six to eight weeks. 

Your old mower finally gives out, and you've got $1,500 to spend on a particular new mower.....only to be told the series you desire, is on a three month back order.

At some point, whether Joe Biden fits into the problem or not....he will start to get the blame for a Soviet-style logistical system, which can't function.  To be honest, sitting and trying to listen to him describe the problem is such a pain....that you dig the cheap whisky bottle out and go through six shots to soften your 'pain' and frustration.

I'm going out on the limb here, but I'm predicting we are nowhere near the bottom of the pit, and will start to feel intense pain by the fall of 2022.  If tractor tires aren't there.....the harvest season squanders away, with less food being delivered. 

If you stop at a coffee shop on the way to work, and the kid says the $15k Einstein-like coffee machine is broke and awaiting parts from the port.....which might be six weeks to six months away, how will you react?

If you stop at the pharmacy to pick up a box of regular band-aides, only to find of the twelve possible boxes normally sold....the only box there is a box of Micky Mouse cartoon band-aides.....will you accept that?

If you stop at eight grocery/drug shops over an afternoon....to buy a box of condoms for your treasured weekend with 'Wanda'.....only to find they are all out of condoms, how will you react?

Come the end of 2022....I suspect our 'blame' stage will be reaching full capacity.