The Big Question

 I saw this question posed today.....has any profession lost more credibility than journalism in the last 10 years?

After pausing for 10 minutes and pondering over it....yeah, if I go back to the 1990s, to consider 30 years....I'm generally skeptical if watching any news piece (from the BBC to CNN) or if reading WaPo or N Y Times.

I'm even this way if viewing some local TV news while traveling in the US.  

If you gave me a red-marker....I'd probably mark up half of a front-page....where I doubt the facts  told....if part of the story is missing....or if it was written by a reporter who seems to have not finished the 9th grade of school.

Can things improve?  How?

Even on sports news....I'm using the 'mute-button' a good bit.  

Am I giving the podcast folks more of a chance to fill the void?  Yeah.  I'd say in an average day....I'm watching a minimum of 90 minutes of pod-cast time.

So To The Rumor Of RFK Jr

 Rumor has it....tomorrow (Friday)....RFK Jr  will say his election is crapped-out and he will end his participation....shifting to supporting Donald Trump.  His VP....Nicole Shanahan?  Basically saying the same 'end-game'.

Where this leaves things?

I think both RFK and Shanahan have a 'deal'.  They will end up with jobs in Trump's group.

How I would use both? 

I'd give RFK a bus and a team....giving him  the state of California and Nevada....to deliver.  Yeah, I'd send into the heart of SF and LA.  Let him speak.

I'm not saying RFK can flip one-million-plus votes.  But he might be able to persuade a high number of unhappy moderate Democrats to either stay home or flip for Trump.

Shanahan?  I'd  give Chicago and NY City....same thing....let him speak to unhappy Democrats.   

Jobs later?  I'm thinking RFK for FBI director, with the instruction.....gut 3,000 employees in the first year.

Shanahan?  I'd put her on the team with  Elon to drill down into the government waste of effort....carving off one-third of the general budget by the end of the 2nd year.  

Will Be Curious To Watch Fail

 California is in the las bit of a legislative effort....where they will help launch a migrant effort to buy homes in the state....with ZERO down-payment and ZERO interest.  You can figure by early 2025....this will start up.

Now, if you were a mature adult....you'd ask, what is the typical cost of a house in California at present.  In non-urbanized California....it's in the $400k for a start-up home.  It's close to 500k to 600k in urbanized California.  And to be honest, to get anyone of a decent place....you need to figure $750k.

Naturally, you'd then add the numbers....nothing down....zero percent on interest....$400k house.  Your payment, with property insurance and property tax....is $1,440 per month for 30 years.

Salary required to make a $1,440 payment on the house.....per month?  Well....if you figure legit health insurance, current state income taxes, cost of living into this?  A minimum of combined income of $90,000.  If your language skills are near zero, and your job background for the past 20 years has been a fruit stand in Guatemala, or a taco stand in Peru?  You probably won't get past $40,000 in salary...meaning zero health insurance and marginally surviving three  years before your mortgage failure occurs.  

The question then becomes....what bank would be stupid enough to  get into this state plan?  And what would this bank do with 1,000 potential failed mortgage situations and the homes involved?

I'm not a financial wiz, but I don't see how a bank would walk into a mess like this and agree to a loan.  It'd be different if you offered 40-percent of the $400,000 and had a real job pulling in $90,000 in combined salary per year.  Maybe if this were Alabama  where you still might occasionally find a $100,000 'cabin/shack' or 1950s-built home.  But California?

So I give it three years to fail, and at least 1,000 homes are confiscated yearly under this scheme.  Total failure within five years?  Probably.  

Signs Of 2025 Being A Repeat Of 1929?

 I probably spend a minimum of 1.5 hours a day reading over finance, business and commerce news (across the globe).  I'm retired....so I can afford to 'waste' my time.

I've probably read four books over the 1920s since 2018, and it's fascinating to view how the 1920s formed a 'doomed-or-die' landscape for the end of 1929.

Between the insurance crisis existing currently (for cars and homes)....a condo crisis in Florida....companies letting people go.....restaurants in a state of collapse  because of pricing for dinners...crime....and at least thirty-other-odd problems...there's a banking crisis brewing.  

In some ways.....there's a staged 'delay' agenda in the mix....to get things past the election and likely to be a collapse of 1929-proportation coming in early 2025.  Yeah, I'd even go and say it'll be a epic moment where we downsize our lives, and go into a hibernation type reaction (maybe for a year or two).

The ability of the Treasury to sell US Treasury notes/bonds....to gift people money to climb out?  There's virtually no one left to buy the notes/bonds....unless the Vanguard, Blackrock people saw some incentive to waste their money on their act.

My general advice?  Three things: Plan your life on meager limits (the eat-beans-and-rice mentality)....for at least a year.  If there isn't a massive cut in government services/cost.....prepare for a 3-to-5 year depression.  Prepare for relatives/kin-folks to ask for sleeping space/help....and your patience to be drilled-down-upon to extremes.

The people with 'weak-guts'? They will be pushed to the extremes  and need 'coaching' daily.

The survivors?  They will be the ones who had limited debt to enter this period, and had a head-start on being frugal.

Modern Society In A Fit of Being Uniformed, Delusional, Or Evil?

Yesterday, I came to this moment of pondering....are a serious number of people walking around...in a state of being uninformed, delusional, or evil?

Some people are blissfully in a state of being uninformed, and happy in this state of mind.  They'd prefer you not drag up bad thoughts, or facts.

Some people are painfully aware of delusions going on, and would prefer you just not speak of the truth.

Then you have some folks who see things in a evil way, and don't want you to screw up the spiral going on.

It's an odd feeling to realize the landscape, and calculating the potential number of bad paths that people might lead.

Seven Things

 1. I've watched a couple of clips of the Democratic Convention.  I'll just say in blunt-talk....what you generally see missing is any chatter about economic success in America...that someone can BELIEVE in, for the past 3.5 years.

This election...is oddly about a tripped-up economy.  Biden should have hired a dozen 'Einsteins' on day one and told them...manage the economy for me and make it a total success story.  

2.  Just ODD...from AP.....the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services says there is a link of some type with fluoridated drinking water giving a 2 to 5 point IQ drop in kids.

3.  Amusing.....the structure chosen for the Dem Convention....has private cabins/suites on the upper decks....normally for the VIP guests of sports events.  So to get one of these for the Convention....you had to pay $500k   So the industry/ultra-rich folks who were being written into the nightly scripts to be REGULATED....were likely sitting there and knowing no idiot is going to regulate them in the end....because they paid for a front-row seat.

4.  I watched a discussion this AM.....generally when you walk into a cafe for a coffee....the internet within the cafe was 'FREE'.  At some location in the US....the cafe folks established a 'fee' program for the Wi-Fi.  Even if you bought the coffee....it was not enough for the Wi-Fi.  Figured cost?  In the $2-range.  The business side figures you will pay.  I'm not that sure about the tactic.

5.  The downfall of Gov Newsom of California?  It's mostly about a crappy downfall over SF and LA.  Well....if you look at Gov Walz and Minneapolis's downfall....it's the same basic story.  There is no difference between Minneapolis and SF....if you really spend time looking over the two urban areas.

6.  I noticed that the DNC held some kind of training....to tell people how to recognize 'sneaky' Republicans who might try to infiltrate a Democratic meeting.  

It reminded me in a way of religious cults and how you work to keep the non-cultists 'out'.

7.  On this talk of Kam's idea for a new tax on unrealized gains...there was no suggestion on what to do in a massive slump/recession....when unrealized losses occurs (meaning the gov't is screwed big-time).