Five Things I Think Of The Biden-Trump Debate Chatter

 1.  To be honest, after the 2020 debates (there were only two between them)....I didn't really see a winner/loser of either one.  I will admit....Biden seemed overly pumped up and 'roaring'.....but it just triggered me to assume he was loped-up on some type of drug (either cocaine or Adderall, or both).

2.  How and why this 2024 debate chatter came up?  

I suspect about 10 days ago....there was a meeting (during the week, not the weekend)....where Joe, Jill, a top pollster, and two or three of the top campaign folks sat in a room.

I think the pollster laid out the discouraging news....that the five key states....are now unwinnable, and that a minimum of two pretty sure states (NV is one of them) will likely go to Trump.  Adding to it....there's probably a national trend where 50-percent of blacks, and Hispanics....will vote Trump (something that didn't occur in 2020).  

I think Joe asked....what can we do, and the campaign folks said we need to trip Trump up....maybe by getting him to say 'no' to a debate of Biden's suggestion....then use it for a commercial.  

Their shock when Trump accepted everything?  

3.  Having one debate prior to a Democratic or Republican Convention? 

Yeah, that's an odd thing....has never occurred.

I don't it's wise.

4.  Will the insider crew gift Biden with a high dose of Adderall?  Yeah.  Could you overdose a guy?

Well....here's the five key problems if you did overdose a guy....nausea and diarrhea, panic and confusion, chest pain (like you were having a heart attack), convulsions, and finally....coma.

So 45 minutes into this debate....you shouldn't be shocked  if you notice Joe having some kind of hallucinations or sweating a bit.  If he were to collapse?  Rest  assured....VP Harris is there to step in and save America.

5.  Is this mostly a Biden-versus-Trump debate, or a Trump-versus-CNN debate? 

Maybe you should sit back and be entertained as CNN gets punched a good bit and unable to moderate.

Jungle Book Movie Requiring A Trigger Warning?

 I sat and read a commentary yesterday.....some guy in the US has Disney-Plus (streaming video), and he was going to put up the Jungle Book movie (the cartoon from 1960s) for his kid to watch.

At the very beginning....there was a added 'clip'.....giving you basically a trigger-warning....that you might be disturbed by some part of the cartoon.

I paused over this for about ten minutes.

I've probably watched Jungle Book at least three times in my life and consider it a classic.

Is there anything to be disturbed by?  NO.

If you have such weak moral character and could be bothered by it?  You probably shouldn't exit the house, or work at any job other than stocking shelves at the local grocery.

I don't have much hope for the future if these characters filter out into jobs and government.  Just trying to imagine them as police?  It won't happen.

Gov Newsom Versus Michelle Obama: Biden's Replacement?

 For several weeks, I've considered the Convention replacement idea....that Biden is given the notice that he can't win, and the Convention 'drafts' a replacement....of which there are only two possibilities (Yeah I discounted Harris).

On debate skills....neither measure up that well....but I'd give a point or two to Newsom.

On past experience?  The most you can say over Michelle Obama is that she's been a community organizer.  Newsom?  Mayor and governor skills.

On public appeal?  Newsom will claim various successes but you can't really go and discuss them in public.  Obama?  No failures, but no successes either.

On scandals?  Newsom had a brief affair, and it's known history.  Obama?  Zero scandal.

If Obama is selected....would Newsom agree to VP?  No.  

If Newsom is selected...would Obama agree to VP?  I doubt it.

Someone who would captivate voters more?  AOC, but she's just marginally going to meet the age requirement.  I could see AOC drafted to be the VP to either of these two.

A silly discussion?  Yeah.

Five Odd Things I've Noted

 1.  Someone sat down and analyzed income levels and book sales for President Biden.  What they say....he's having a shortfall of capital....other than his present salary as President.

Where does he spend the money?  Unknown.  It is just an odd story....lessening bank account and no way to show spending?

Someone commented that legal aid for Hunter....was a pot of money that the President was putting cash into, and this might have consumed a fair amount of dad's money.

2.  Some BS report  that White House insiders say if Hunter's legal case opens up....President Biden mental side will deteriorate and he will suffer mental 'torment'.

Not sure why news media actually reported this.

3.  Air Force said this past week.....recruiting crisis has reached a serious level.

Adding to the commentary....the chief DEI officer for the AF hyped-up LGTBQ-month and goals to recruit more LGTBQ-people.

Serious problems approaching?  I'd say by summer of 2025....talk of a 'draft' will start up.

4.  US Army now testing 'long-distance' balloons.  Wonder where they got the idea?

5.  Just an odd story brewing....people who own E-cars and do longer distance drives....say that they suffer some kind of nausea.  Might be BS.....no one has any science or data  to explain this.

If I were just looking at this.....putting 400 pounds of batteries into a closed space....might have some kind of electric field problem brewing.  Would be funny if people suffer health issues because of E-cars.  

What Happens At the Democratic Convention Once Joe Biden Is Replaced?

 After pondering over, I have five humble thoughts:

1.  Whatever deal Joe Biden has with Trump meeting for a second debate after the Convention....is gone.

Doesn't matter if it is Michelle Obama or Governor Newsom.....this deal is gone and Trump will likely say any new debate chatter....has to be with podcast folks only....in a totally neutral situation, at Trump's pick  of location.

Yeah, he will  own the full landscape.

2.  CNN's value after this point?  Boy, I'd say they will have half the number of viewers and be laughed at.  

3.  Joe's energy level for the remainder....as he is out?  Near zero after the Convention.  He might try to invite himself to France or Germany, but I doubt if he does much travel.

4.  Economy going into rapid slow-down?  OH YEAH, that's very possible. 

5.  Migration crisis going  into massive over-drive?  YES.....with full blame upon Joe Biden, and NYC/Chicago asking for $150-million a month to marginally keep support going on.

What Happens On The Morning Of 28 June?

Well....you wake up after having watched the Biden-Trump debate from the previous evening, feeling pretty amused and dismayed.   

First, you will admit it was mostly a debate between CNN and Donald Trump....with Trump pointing out how far the network had fallen.  The Tapper dude?  He will be crapped on in various ways.  

CNN's attempt to defend itself?  A majority of people will see them as a propaganda unit....not a news organization.  

Blacks in a overwhelming majority will agree....it was mostly about CNN trying to get Trump, with the Democratic masterminds trying figure out how they screwed up.

Second, people will have noticed at least a dozen facts that Biden cited.....as being false.  

Third, a series of meetings will  start up and run through most of July.  The main topic?  How can the Democratic Convention quietly and effectively replace Joe  Biden?  

Fourth, the second of these debates?  It won't occur.  After the Convention...whoever replaces Joe....will find that Donald Trump now says fine....but there's only going to be moderators that he accepts.  

Fifth, this VP debate on 23 July (week after the Republican Convention)?  It likely will not occur, and certainly not with Harris.

Oddly, this will be discussed for years....like some Shakespeare-like opera.

(Hint: Don't expect the CNN crew to ask a single economics question)

If I Ran Presidential Debates

 1.  No audience.  Televised live, and limited to no more than 90 minutes.

2.  I'd give the people two minutes to three minutes to explain the question....each with the same issue/problem.

3.  Public allowed to submit questions, and evaluated by 100 people a week prior....assigning a 'grade' to the question and way it's asked.

4.  One moderator to ask the question...as is.  No follow up.

5.  Standing or sitting, up to each individual.

6.  Exact same questions list  used for VP debate.

7.  Immediately after the debate....NO analyst to explain things.

8.  Each person has to identify where Ukraine is on a map....with no names for any country.

9.  Each candidate has to do a 6th grade math word question, and provide the correct answer.

10.  Each candidate has to do a random drug-test.  Results to follow a week later.

Five Predictions Prior To Beginning of 2026

 1.   I'll predict a wipe-out of California fast-food restaurants.....with at least 40-percent  of those that exist today....being gone by early 2026.   The $20-an-hour-wage doing most of the damage.

2.  I'll predict that more than 200,000 Floridian folks who own condos....exit by early 2026, and live out their lives in RV trailers.

3. I'll predict that the average mortgage rate by early 2026 will be near 9-percent.  Meaning?  You will see a collapse of homes valued at 1-mil or more.  No one will be in a position to buy a home, without 25-to-35 percent of a down-payment, and able to show a steady job situation.

4.  A study will be completed to show that 99-percent of adults in America have a valid  ID of some type.

5.  The word 'whore' will be banned from use by the social media folks.  

Humble View of the Biden-Trump Debate Chatter

Four things:

1.  Awful stringent to have only Biden's pick of network, but CNN ends up with the first debate.

I suspect they are sitting there and pausing over how Biden's crew wants them to craft pro-Biden questions and accept hard Trump topics.  I think the CNN folks might be fed up with this behavior, and just say....'screw it'.  

Yeah, they might  toss out half the Joe-questions and shock Joe with some tough questions.

I could see them wanting Trump back in office....to improve ratings.

2.  Should Trump invite RFK to 3 debates on his own?  Yeah.  I'd do all in September....leaving Joe completely out.

3.  If Joe screws up the July debate?  He's out at the convention.

4.  I think the VP  debates now matter....more than ever. 

Explaining Consumer Price Index To A Redneck

 The CPI is a pretty standard 'tool' for economists.  You basically take x-number of goods bought monthly, and keep visiting (repeating) to see if the price has gone up or down.  

Can you rig CPI?  You could but then you'd be defeating the usefulness of the tool.

So to explain this to a redneck....you have a 12 cases of assorted beer that you buy (12 brands).  

You start out at store X and buy one case of Miller Lite for $26.99.  You repeat this process for the remaining 11 cases.  Then you add the numbers up, and you have x-amount for May 2024.

If you were rigging this?  You'd have a list of superior discount shops and buy the beer only while on sale.  In this case, you might find the Miller Lite case....discounted at one particular shop for $24.99.  

You'd then repeat the discount game....to ensure the CPI looks great but at a majority of shops....it's likely to be $28.99.  You skipped them because your inflation numbers would be crap, if you did this right.

Screwed up?  No....it's just the way that you fake people out.  

This Brewing 'Hurricane' Effect On Condo Sales In Florida

 If you pull up real estate sites and search over Florida for condos for sale....it's a huge number listed (way more than normal).  Why?  Well....it leads to odd things:

1.  That condo collapse from last year triggered the state gov't to mandate condo associations actually do maintenance and have a pile of money to cover required 'fixes'.  That meant your association fee, which might have been $400 to $1000 a month....probably doubled.  It also meant that if they found massive problems....they came to you for a one-time pay-up situation...maybe $10,000.....maybe even $40,000.  

2.  Then the insurance industry revised their quotes....in most cases....going up by one-third...but some even doubled their yearly rate.

So 'Hank' looked at his personal mess to clean up and realized.....he doesn't have the savings or yearly retirement income to cover this mess.  Logically, he's got the property up for sale., 

Who would buy into a mess like this?  No one.

'Hank' will hit some point by December....realizing that his savings is being drained and association fee is bankrupting him....so he will declare bankruptcy and hand the keys to the association.  

What can the condo association do with the empty condo?  Nothing.

So from the 240 units of a average condo building...by summer of 2025, the association will probably have 30 to 60 units empty....unable to market them, and now approaching the remaining 180-odd players in the building that they need to pay a higher fee.  How high?  Well...they already saw a 50-to-100 percent rise in 2024.  I would imagine by mid-2025, it'll go to a second 50-to-100 percent rise....meaning a new crew of folks in desperation and talking to a lawyer over bankruptcy by spring of 2026.

The condo by summer of 2026?  Of the 240 units....more than half of the units will be empty, and the remaining folks are now in desperate times because their savings is being wiped out.   Yep, they will be discussing bankruptcy and handing the keys to the condo to the association.  Wave after wave....hitting the market.

Just a ball-park guess, but I would imagine over 300 condo buildings across the state by spring 2027....empty and fenced up.  State trying to size up the property and sell the units for $10,000 (over their current value of $250,000)?  It wouldn't shock me, but what idiot would go and buy some condo situation like this?

It's an amazing economic story to ponder.  All of these had value.....ownership was simplified....association operations functioned as designed.  Then one day....it all failed.

My question?  Lets say that 10,000 owners are in this situation and lose their property.....getting into serious financial woes.  Where do they move and rebuild their lives?  Anywhere, but Florida.  

Five Things I'd Do About Student Demonstrations

 1.  I'd add a line in the student rules......where if you demonstrated on property grounds....we'd call the city police and as you are detained.....you are automatically suspended from the school for one year, with your accomplishments so far in suspended status until the full year is over (meaning even if you transfer to another college....your classes aren't countable in that period).

2.  Non-member of the campus on the grounds?  Prosecute them to the fullest degree of the law.

3.  Zero camping allowed, and automatic confiscation of the tent/camping gear.  

4.  Employees of the school participating?  Tell them on university grounds, it's cause for dismissal.

5.  Creating a disturbance during a class day?  Add a $300 fee (per day).   

Guatemala Story

 I was reading over a stoy of the Attorney General of Guatemala....who is in some type of investigation over child-trafficking of kids there.....into the US.  Nothing is really clear.

But in the middle of the story....they got onto this odd subject.  The US gov't....never saying which department did this....shuffled around $125,000 into Guatemala to pay for the services of Shaman/Healers.

Shaman/Healers?  

In certain remote areas of Honduras, Guatemala and so on....it comes out of the past with the Mayan, Aztec and Inca folks.

They typically would have a ceremony....have some smoke in the air....drink some herbal tea (possibly laced with some stuff to make you dopey), and by the end of the 'show'.....you felt 'right'.

So the question is....how did the tax money ($125k) find it's way into this mess, who approved this idea, and where exactly does it fit into child-trafficking?

You can read the story here.

On my weird index....yeah, it's a solid ten.

Eight Things

 1.  On economic plus-ups to President Biden....he is totally disconnected to plain working-class Americans.  It's hard to imagine this is an election year, and things are so screwed-up....that he can't sell his brand or message.

2  You probably didn't hear, but DoJ is talking to the court over the hammer-dude who went at Paul Pelosi (Nancy's husband), and wanting him to serve 40 years.  

3.  McDonalds says it's going to market a $5-meal.  I would imagine it'll be the 99-cent hamburger with 2 patties, small fries, and small drink.  Over past three years....if I've been at a McDonalds....haven't been able to for less than $12.

4.  If I were a university with 'campers' (people with tents).....I'd respond....sure, you can camp, for a daily fee of $39 (per person). If you can't pay.....I'd ask the police to pick each person up....jail them until they pay the $39.

5.   Something I expect in 2025.....some college 'group' comes up....admitting they read Hitler's 'Mein Kampf' and readily support his Nazi strategy.  

6.  It just kinda hit this past week....Joe Biden himself.....is doing everything possible to screw up the election and the spiral on negativity is currently a big deal.  The economy?  If  he'd brought some special team in early 2023 and said...get this all fixed up, then he'd be out to win the election.  

7.  If someone utters that he's an expert....he's got about 90 seconds to prove his point, or be condemned as an idiot.  Funny how this has developed.

8.  Germany's idea from 20 years ago to dump the draft?  Basically today....deemed almost a failure, and there's talk that the volunteer deal is about to be dumped.

Crazy Talk

 I saw this graphic chart this AM....crazy-people population in state psychiatric hospitals in the US....1950 to 2010.

So my question is this....if the incoming crowd were released....where did they 'really' go?  Out in public, or in prisons?

Did lessening the resident situation really fix anything over a 60-year period?

And the one odd factor....up until 1960, we were still on a upward trend.  Where would the 'mark' be today....if the clinics been kept open?

Heat Story

 Someone brought this up today....actually published around mid-October of 2023.

I sat and pondered over it.  

To be honest, if you had ventured from the Carolinas back in 1825....out to Illinois/Indiana....as a settler, after a single year of living in mid-America, you probably would have said things are way too hot, and way too cold....to live there.

Then as you moved to Colorado in the 1870....you probably said the same thing.

Upon moving to Arizona (Tombstone) in 1900....you would have said the same thing.

If any of this warning BS were true....you'd see scientists at the various universities in mid-America....packing up and trying to get to Oregon or Maine....to survive.  

Yet, you see no one really acting worried.

Money Chatter

 I've spent a fair amount of time looking this graphic chart.

I'm mostly in disagreement about the results.  

First, what exactly does 'live comfortably' mean?  I think in Idaho...I could live pretty well on $50,000 a year (as long as I didn't have a monthly mortgage payment of $1,200).  

A family needing $257,000 in Oregon?  Are mom and dad driving a Mercedes each?

This brings to a WaPo story from around 2011....DC/Arlington couple (both in early 50s).....pulling in around $270,000 a year combined, and living paycheck-to-paycheck....unable to really explain how they spent their way through a month.  

There's something wrong here....but I can't really put my finger on it.

AI Story

 I sat and watched an interview with Bumble founder.....Whitney Wolfe Herd....who got into a talk about the future of dating.

So her idea is that Artifical Intelligence (AI) is very shortly reaching a stage where you would talk to your AI-date-handler, and it would have reviewed 'options' (say 100,000 people)....to recommend 'winners'.

How many questions would have to be asked and measured?  She doesn't say, but I would imagine this is a four-hour interview to reach 1,000 conclusions about your expectations.

If you say it has to be a gal who cooks....knows something about timing belts, is at least 35 years old, and drinks beer from the can.....it might only list four people from the entire state.....then mention that two of the ladies are in the state prison.

To me, the question comes up....would you trust the AI to find the dream-person?

Then you come to the obvious....what if people lied about the 1,000 answers they gave to the AI?

How many filters would a 45-year old guy establish?  Five?  Twelve?  Forty?  

I paused over this...just on myself?  I might have twenty hard NO-GO filters established.  I wouldn't want a cult-gal....someone who constantly wants to walk on beaches...a paranoid schizophrenic....a Amazon-shaped gal who was a former wrestler....someone with ten weird tattoos.....or a Vega-gal.  Environmentalist?  No.  Two-pack a day smoker?  No.  

I would imagine these AI folks would eventually come around and tell you in a blunt way.....you made it too difficult....there ain't anyone that weird to fit your profile.

Economics Chatter

 I saw this today on social media. Burger King pricing going up.

The thing that might bother people?  Well....how would summer of 2025 look?  A whopper being up around $8.50?  Fries being near $4.40?  

This is the problem with the inflation scale....you just don't have a slowing down affect within your line of sight.

Sticker-shock in 18 months....where you walk into a BK...finding the Double-Whopper menu....at $30 for one person?  

Same trend for pizza?  Where you might find a normal $15 2019-pizza....going for $22 today, and in the fall of 2025....maybe $30?

Counting Story

 I sat and paused over this AP story.  What the whole thing boils down to....the state of Califoria is reaching a point where they would NOT be able to complete a vote-count for probably two months.

Not able to finish by the time that the Electoral College convenes?  More or less....that's the case.

In fact, you could have lawsuits preventing the state from progressing until the ballots have been counted not just once but maybe twice.

Preventing an Electoral College ending?  Yeah, you get that impression.

Four Humble Thoughts Over The Demonstrations On College Campuses

 1.  Having seen some of the media interactions/interviews with the riot-players....I question how bright they seem....if attending college, and would ask.....is it possible to get a refund on your tuition if you are that 'stupid'.

2.  Looking at the destruction elements....at the end, someone has to clean up the mess and repair the buildings. This means a cost-factor.  I'm just guessing....for the August 2025 tuition 'number'....go start figuring a 30-to-40 percent increase on tuition.

3.  Trying to stay on this 'topic' for more than three days?  Personally, I just don't see  more than five minutes of interest in a 12-hour viewing cycle.  I'd have more interest with the Braves infield after spring-training, or Biden's walking style.

4.  If you handed a map to the protest-university crowd and asked them to point out the Gaza Strip....I doubt if 5-percent could locate it on a map.

Tuition Chatter

 This past weekend, I was clearing out stuff and came to a 1976 notebook.  

In that fall (I was in the 11th grade)....they had bused us all to some county 'opportunities' day.  Here were five or six colleges....number of trade of schools, and the military recruitment folks.

My conversation with the Auburn/Univ of Alabama folks?  Yearly tuition was $1,500...books were $250, and a whole year of room/board was priced at $1,700 roughly.  I wrote all this into the notebook.

The trouble in assessing all of this...I had no idea of a real occupation or path.  

The military recruitment folks?  The Navy guy seemed hyped-up to interest me.  Marines....less so.  The Air Force had me sold but then the pay thing came up....E1 equaled $400 a month (taking out taxes/SS....you made around $300 a month). 

That Friday night came and I spent two hours thinking over this, and concluded on numbers....the Air Force path made more sense.

Funny, I kept the notebook over the years.  

If you tried to price Auburn today?  Year of tuition is around $12.5k....books around $1,200, and room/board near $15.4k.  Then you come to beer, insurance, and extra pocket-money....probably near $8k a year.

An Election Rule Or Two You Might Want To Remember

In the event we pass the Democratic Convention (19 August to 23 August), and something happens to President Biden....to say he's out as a candidate (health issues one might assume)....what happens?

Well....the Democrats are 'empowered' to fill the empty seat, and it does NOT have to be the VP moving up.  In this case, the party chair would have a talk with with Democratic governors and House/Senate leadership.

In this scenario, I believe it's entirely possible that both the President/VP seats would change out.  

States in a position to say 'no'?  There are two states which have ironclad rules about changing the names after mid-August.  So unless lawsuits occur.....there would be two states denying the name change.

The Republican?  If Trump were knocked out? the Republican National Committee has a rule offering a 2nd national convention or itself (the RNC) could select a new candidate.

Am I suggesting an Oswald-like scenario?  No....but if you asked me....how many FBI or CIA Oswalds currently exist in the US....I would laugh and suggest over 100 easily.

If you suddenly crossed both Joe and Kam off the list in mid-September through this scenario?  In a matter of just a month....Joe would be forgotten, and Kam acting as President....would get almost zero media attention.

Just a curious thing to think about.  

The Slacker Generation

 We had a term in the 1970s/1980s in the Air Force....that we used almost daily....'slacker'.

A 'slacker' was a guy (usually) who didn't put much effort into his work, or his life.  This was the junior airman who wore clothing until it had a ton of body order....meaning he washed his clothing maybe once a month.  This was the guy who mostly hung around the barracks.....if they could find a way to get out of work/duty, then they put effort into that....and they rarely did anything worth discussing except watch TV.

Yeah, a slacker was a loser.

So it occurred to me this week....there's hundreds of thousand of these 18-to-29 year old slackers now existing in America.....living out of dad's house, and doing little in the way of progressing or getting ahead in life.

The trouble here?  Well....slackers don't vote.  They also don't date or get into relationships.  They don't get credit cards....mostly because they have no income.  The Democratic or Republican parties having anything to offer slackers?  No.

Are they even interested in leaving or getting a job?  There's no indicator of that.

As this group grows in the next decade....what exactly can any politician offer....to make them happy?

The College Demonstrations After The Smoke Clears

 Ten thoughts:

1.  I don't see any of these ending by mid-summer or the start of fall classes.  

2.  I think these demonstrations will continue through the Democratic Convention and be a major problem for the city of Chicago.

3.  Nationwide?  I'll predict a minimum of 500 police file disability papers because of injuries.  End cost for police units throughout the US will exceed $1-billion for health cost, and early retirement.

4.  At least 300 lawsuits will be created against both private and public universities for failing to provide education and safety.  Some of these will roll through all of 2025, and even to the end of 2026.  Total cost?  Five-billion-dollars.

5.  Tuition upgrades/cost?  Just for this fall semester, I would imagine schools like Columbia (currently at $66k a year)....will move the tuition close to $71k for next year.  The increase for August 2025?  Probably closer to $79k.  

6.  The donation crowd to the big-name university operations?  They will quietly up and leave.  

7.  Several national corporations will make it clear.....they aren't interested in graduates from the affected universities....leaving over 20,000 2024/2025 graduates standing there with limited job prospects.  The Justice Department will attempt to 'punish' the corporations, but find zero respect.

8.  In several southern states, the protest folks will be shocked that their acts got them into a 5-year potential jail-sentence, and the legal help provided.....has little to offer for a deal.  Upon entering state prisons....most will find the educational level of the prisoners equal to their college-level, and ask how that was possible.

9.  Some leaker within the FBI will admit they are tracking well over $100-million coming in to support the demonstrations from Iran, China and Russia.  Congress will ask why they aren't doing anything, with the answer leading back  to Biden's circle.

10.  The question nationally will be asked.....if 18-year-old kids are going to college and coming out four years later....more stupid....why go to college?