Five Things I Think Of The Biden-Trump Debate Chatter

 1.  To be honest, after the 2020 debates (there were only two between them)....I didn't really see a winner/loser of either one.  I will admit....Biden seemed overly pumped up and 'roaring'.....but it just triggered me to assume he was loped-up on some type of drug (either cocaine or Adderall, or both).

2.  How and why this 2024 debate chatter came up?  

I suspect about 10 days ago....there was a meeting (during the week, not the weekend)....where Joe, Jill, a top pollster, and two or three of the top campaign folks sat in a room.

I think the pollster laid out the discouraging news....that the five key states....are now unwinnable, and that a minimum of two pretty sure states (NV is one of them) will likely go to Trump.  Adding to it....there's probably a national trend where 50-percent of blacks, and Hispanics....will vote Trump (something that didn't occur in 2020).  

I think Joe asked....what can we do, and the campaign folks said we need to trip Trump up....maybe by getting him to say 'no' to a debate of Biden's suggestion....then use it for a commercial.  

Their shock when Trump accepted everything?  

3.  Having one debate prior to a Democratic or Republican Convention? 

Yeah, that's an odd thing....has never occurred.

I don't it's wise.

4.  Will the insider crew gift Biden with a high dose of Adderall?  Yeah.  Could you overdose a guy?

Well....here's the five key problems if you did overdose a guy....nausea and diarrhea, panic and confusion, chest pain (like you were having a heart attack), convulsions, and finally....coma.

So 45 minutes into this debate....you shouldn't be shocked  if you notice Joe having some kind of hallucinations or sweating a bit.  If he were to collapse?  Rest  assured....VP Harris is there to step in and save America.

5.  Is this mostly a Biden-versus-Trump debate, or a Trump-versus-CNN debate? 

Maybe you should sit back and be entertained as CNN gets punched a good bit and unable to moderate.

Jungle Book Movie Requiring A Trigger Warning?

 I sat and read a commentary yesterday.....some guy in the US has Disney-Plus (streaming video), and he was going to put up the Jungle Book movie (the cartoon from 1960s) for his kid to watch.

At the very beginning....there was a added 'clip'.....giving you basically a trigger-warning....that you might be disturbed by some part of the cartoon.

I paused over this for about ten minutes.

I've probably watched Jungle Book at least three times in my life and consider it a classic.

Is there anything to be disturbed by?  NO.

If you have such weak moral character and could be bothered by it?  You probably shouldn't exit the house, or work at any job other than stocking shelves at the local grocery.

I don't have much hope for the future if these characters filter out into jobs and government.  Just trying to imagine them as police?  It won't happen.

Gov Newsom Versus Michelle Obama: Biden's Replacement?

 For several weeks, I've considered the Convention replacement idea....that Biden is given the notice that he can't win, and the Convention 'drafts' a replacement....of which there are only two possibilities (Yeah I discounted Harris).

On debate skills....neither measure up that well....but I'd give a point or two to Newsom.

On past experience?  The most you can say over Michelle Obama is that she's been a community organizer.  Newsom?  Mayor and governor skills.

On public appeal?  Newsom will claim various successes but you can't really go and discuss them in public.  Obama?  No failures, but no successes either.

On scandals?  Newsom had a brief affair, and it's known history.  Obama?  Zero scandal.

If Obama is selected....would Newsom agree to VP?  No.  

If Newsom is selected...would Obama agree to VP?  I doubt it.

Someone who would captivate voters more?  AOC, but she's just marginally going to meet the age requirement.  I could see AOC drafted to be the VP to either of these two.

A silly discussion?  Yeah.

Five Odd Things I've Noted

 1.  Someone sat down and analyzed income levels and book sales for President Biden.  What they say....he's having a shortfall of capital....other than his present salary as President.

Where does he spend the money?  Unknown.  It is just an odd story....lessening bank account and no way to show spending?

Someone commented that legal aid for Hunter....was a pot of money that the President was putting cash into, and this might have consumed a fair amount of dad's money.

2.  Some BS report  that White House insiders say if Hunter's legal case opens up....President Biden mental side will deteriorate and he will suffer mental 'torment'.

Not sure why news media actually reported this.

3.  Air Force said this past week.....recruiting crisis has reached a serious level.

Adding to the commentary....the chief DEI officer for the AF hyped-up LGTBQ-month and goals to recruit more LGTBQ-people.

Serious problems approaching?  I'd say by summer of 2025....talk of a 'draft' will start up.

4.  US Army now testing 'long-distance' balloons.  Wonder where they got the idea?

5.  Just an odd story brewing....people who own E-cars and do longer distance drives....say that they suffer some kind of nausea.  Might be BS.....no one has any science or data  to explain this.

If I were just looking at this.....putting 400 pounds of batteries into a closed space....might have some kind of electric field problem brewing.  Would be funny if people suffer health issues because of E-cars.  

What Happens At the Democratic Convention Once Joe Biden Is Replaced?

 After pondering over, I have five humble thoughts:

1.  Whatever deal Joe Biden has with Trump meeting for a second debate after the Convention....is gone.

Doesn't matter if it is Michelle Obama or Governor Newsom.....this deal is gone and Trump will likely say any new debate chatter....has to be with podcast folks only....in a totally neutral situation, at Trump's pick  of location.

Yeah, he will  own the full landscape.

2.  CNN's value after this point?  Boy, I'd say they will have half the number of viewers and be laughed at.  

3.  Joe's energy level for the remainder....as he is out?  Near zero after the Convention.  He might try to invite himself to France or Germany, but I doubt if he does much travel.

4.  Economy going into rapid slow-down?  OH YEAH, that's very possible. 

5.  Migration crisis going  into massive over-drive?  YES.....with full blame upon Joe Biden, and NYC/Chicago asking for $150-million a month to marginally keep support going on.

What Happens On The Morning Of 28 June?

Well....you wake up after having watched the Biden-Trump debate from the previous evening, feeling pretty amused and dismayed.   

First, you will admit it was mostly a debate between CNN and Donald Trump....with Trump pointing out how far the network had fallen.  The Tapper dude?  He will be crapped on in various ways.  

CNN's attempt to defend itself?  A majority of people will see them as a propaganda unit....not a news organization.  

Blacks in a overwhelming majority will agree....it was mostly about CNN trying to get Trump, with the Democratic masterminds trying figure out how they screwed up.

Second, people will have noticed at least a dozen facts that Biden cited.....as being false.  

Third, a series of meetings will  start up and run through most of July.  The main topic?  How can the Democratic Convention quietly and effectively replace Joe  Biden?  

Fourth, the second of these debates?  It won't occur.  After the Convention...whoever replaces Joe....will find that Donald Trump now says fine....but there's only going to be moderators that he accepts.  

Fifth, this VP debate on 23 July (week after the Republican Convention)?  It likely will not occur, and certainly not with Harris.

Oddly, this will be discussed for years....like some Shakespeare-like opera.

(Hint: Don't expect the CNN crew to ask a single economics question)

If I Ran Presidential Debates

 1.  No audience.  Televised live, and limited to no more than 90 minutes.

2.  I'd give the people two minutes to three minutes to explain the question....each with the same issue/problem.

3.  Public allowed to submit questions, and evaluated by 100 people a week prior....assigning a 'grade' to the question and way it's asked.

4.  One moderator to ask the question...as is.  No follow up.

5.  Standing or sitting, up to each individual.

6.  Exact same questions list  used for VP debate.

7.  Immediately after the debate....NO analyst to explain things.

8.  Each person has to identify where Ukraine is on a map....with no names for any country.

9.  Each candidate has to do a 6th grade math word question, and provide the correct answer.

10.  Each candidate has to do a random drug-test.  Results to follow a week later.

Five Predictions Prior To Beginning of 2026

 1.   I'll predict a wipe-out of California fast-food restaurants.....with at least 40-percent  of those that exist today....being gone by early 2026.   The $20-an-hour-wage doing most of the damage.

2.  I'll predict that more than 200,000 Floridian folks who own condos....exit by early 2026, and live out their lives in RV trailers.

3. I'll predict that the average mortgage rate by early 2026 will be near 9-percent.  Meaning?  You will see a collapse of homes valued at 1-mil or more.  No one will be in a position to buy a home, without 25-to-35 percent of a down-payment, and able to show a steady job situation.

4.  A study will be completed to show that 99-percent of adults in America have a valid  ID of some type.

5.  The word 'whore' will be banned from use by the social media folks.  

Humble View of the Biden-Trump Debate Chatter

Four things:

1.  Awful stringent to have only Biden's pick of network, but CNN ends up with the first debate.

I suspect they are sitting there and pausing over how Biden's crew wants them to craft pro-Biden questions and accept hard Trump topics.  I think the CNN folks might be fed up with this behavior, and just say....'screw it'.  

Yeah, they might  toss out half the Joe-questions and shock Joe with some tough questions.

I could see them wanting Trump back in office....to improve ratings.

2.  Should Trump invite RFK to 3 debates on his own?  Yeah.  I'd do all in September....leaving Joe completely out.

3.  If Joe screws up the July debate?  He's out at the convention.

4.  I think the VP  debates now matter....more than ever. 

Explaining Consumer Price Index To A Redneck

 The CPI is a pretty standard 'tool' for economists.  You basically take x-number of goods bought monthly, and keep visiting (repeating) to see if the price has gone up or down.  

Can you rig CPI?  You could but then you'd be defeating the usefulness of the tool.

So to explain this to a redneck....you have a 12 cases of assorted beer that you buy (12 brands).  

You start out at store X and buy one case of Miller Lite for $26.99.  You repeat this process for the remaining 11 cases.  Then you add the numbers up, and you have x-amount for May 2024.

If you were rigging this?  You'd have a list of superior discount shops and buy the beer only while on sale.  In this case, you might find the Miller Lite case....discounted at one particular shop for $24.99.  

You'd then repeat the discount game....to ensure the CPI looks great but at a majority of shops....it's likely to be $28.99.  You skipped them because your inflation numbers would be crap, if you did this right.

Screwed up?  No....it's just the way that you fake people out.  

This Brewing 'Hurricane' Effect On Condo Sales In Florida

 If you pull up real estate sites and search over Florida for condos for sale....it's a huge number listed (way more than normal).  Why?  Well....it leads to odd things:

1.  That condo collapse from last year triggered the state gov't to mandate condo associations actually do maintenance and have a pile of money to cover required 'fixes'.  That meant your association fee, which might have been $400 to $1000 a month....probably doubled.  It also meant that if they found massive problems....they came to you for a one-time pay-up situation...maybe $10,000.....maybe even $40,000.  

2.  Then the insurance industry revised their quotes....in most cases....going up by one-third...but some even doubled their yearly rate.

So 'Hank' looked at his personal mess to clean up and realized.....he doesn't have the savings or yearly retirement income to cover this mess.  Logically, he's got the property up for sale., 

Who would buy into a mess like this?  No one.

'Hank' will hit some point by December....realizing that his savings is being drained and association fee is bankrupting him....so he will declare bankruptcy and hand the keys to the association.  

What can the condo association do with the empty condo?  Nothing.

So from the 240 units of a average condo building...by summer of 2025, the association will probably have 30 to 60 units empty....unable to market them, and now approaching the remaining 180-odd players in the building that they need to pay a higher fee.  How high?  Well...they already saw a 50-to-100 percent rise in 2024.  I would imagine by mid-2025, it'll go to a second 50-to-100 percent rise....meaning a new crew of folks in desperation and talking to a lawyer over bankruptcy by spring of 2026.

The condo by summer of 2026?  Of the 240 units....more than half of the units will be empty, and the remaining folks are now in desperate times because their savings is being wiped out.   Yep, they will be discussing bankruptcy and handing the keys to the condo to the association.  Wave after wave....hitting the market.

Just a ball-park guess, but I would imagine over 300 condo buildings across the state by spring 2027....empty and fenced up.  State trying to size up the property and sell the units for $10,000 (over their current value of $250,000)?  It wouldn't shock me, but what idiot would go and buy some condo situation like this?

It's an amazing economic story to ponder.  All of these had value.....ownership was simplified....association operations functioned as designed.  Then one day....it all failed.

My question?  Lets say that 10,000 owners are in this situation and lose their property.....getting into serious financial woes.  Where do they move and rebuild their lives?  Anywhere, but Florida.  

Five Things I'd Do About Student Demonstrations

 1.  I'd add a line in the student rules......where if you demonstrated on property grounds....we'd call the city police and as you are detained.....you are automatically suspended from the school for one year, with your accomplishments so far in suspended status until the full year is over (meaning even if you transfer to another college....your classes aren't countable in that period).

2.  Non-member of the campus on the grounds?  Prosecute them to the fullest degree of the law.

3.  Zero camping allowed, and automatic confiscation of the tent/camping gear.  

4.  Employees of the school participating?  Tell them on university grounds, it's cause for dismissal.

5.  Creating a disturbance during a class day?  Add a $300 fee (per day).   

Guatemala Story

 I was reading over a stoy of the Attorney General of Guatemala....who is in some type of investigation over child-trafficking of kids there.....into the US.  Nothing is really clear.

But in the middle of the story....they got onto this odd subject.  The US gov't....never saying which department did this....shuffled around $125,000 into Guatemala to pay for the services of Shaman/Healers.

Shaman/Healers?  

In certain remote areas of Honduras, Guatemala and so on....it comes out of the past with the Mayan, Aztec and Inca folks.

They typically would have a ceremony....have some smoke in the air....drink some herbal tea (possibly laced with some stuff to make you dopey), and by the end of the 'show'.....you felt 'right'.

So the question is....how did the tax money ($125k) find it's way into this mess, who approved this idea, and where exactly does it fit into child-trafficking?

You can read the story here.

On my weird index....yeah, it's a solid ten.

Eight Things

 1.  On economic plus-ups to President Biden....he is totally disconnected to plain working-class Americans.  It's hard to imagine this is an election year, and things are so screwed-up....that he can't sell his brand or message.

2  You probably didn't hear, but DoJ is talking to the court over the hammer-dude who went at Paul Pelosi (Nancy's husband), and wanting him to serve 40 years.  

3.  McDonalds says it's going to market a $5-meal.  I would imagine it'll be the 99-cent hamburger with 2 patties, small fries, and small drink.  Over past three years....if I've been at a McDonalds....haven't been able to for less than $12.

4.  If I were a university with 'campers' (people with tents).....I'd respond....sure, you can camp, for a daily fee of $39 (per person). If you can't pay.....I'd ask the police to pick each person up....jail them until they pay the $39.

5.   Something I expect in 2025.....some college 'group' comes up....admitting they read Hitler's 'Mein Kampf' and readily support his Nazi strategy.  

6.  It just kinda hit this past week....Joe Biden himself.....is doing everything possible to screw up the election and the spiral on negativity is currently a big deal.  The economy?  If  he'd brought some special team in early 2023 and said...get this all fixed up, then he'd be out to win the election.  

7.  If someone utters that he's an expert....he's got about 90 seconds to prove his point, or be condemned as an idiot.  Funny how this has developed.

8.  Germany's idea from 20 years ago to dump the draft?  Basically today....deemed almost a failure, and there's talk that the volunteer deal is about to be dumped.

Crazy Talk

 I saw this graphic chart this AM....crazy-people population in state psychiatric hospitals in the US....1950 to 2010.

So my question is this....if the incoming crowd were released....where did they 'really' go?  Out in public, or in prisons?

Did lessening the resident situation really fix anything over a 60-year period?

And the one odd factor....up until 1960, we were still on a upward trend.  Where would the 'mark' be today....if the clinics been kept open?

Heat Story

 Someone brought this up today....actually published around mid-October of 2023.

I sat and pondered over it.  

To be honest, if you had ventured from the Carolinas back in 1825....out to Illinois/Indiana....as a settler, after a single year of living in mid-America, you probably would have said things are way too hot, and way too cold....to live there.

Then as you moved to Colorado in the 1870....you probably said the same thing.

Upon moving to Arizona (Tombstone) in 1900....you would have said the same thing.

If any of this warning BS were true....you'd see scientists at the various universities in mid-America....packing up and trying to get to Oregon or Maine....to survive.  

Yet, you see no one really acting worried.

Money Chatter

 I've spent a fair amount of time looking this graphic chart.

I'm mostly in disagreement about the results.  

First, what exactly does 'live comfortably' mean?  I think in Idaho...I could live pretty well on $50,000 a year (as long as I didn't have a monthly mortgage payment of $1,200).  

A family needing $257,000 in Oregon?  Are mom and dad driving a Mercedes each?

This brings to a WaPo story from around 2011....DC/Arlington couple (both in early 50s).....pulling in around $270,000 a year combined, and living paycheck-to-paycheck....unable to really explain how they spent their way through a month.  

There's something wrong here....but I can't really put my finger on it.

AI Story

 I sat and watched an interview with Bumble founder.....Whitney Wolfe Herd....who got into a talk about the future of dating.

So her idea is that Artifical Intelligence (AI) is very shortly reaching a stage where you would talk to your AI-date-handler, and it would have reviewed 'options' (say 100,000 people)....to recommend 'winners'.

How many questions would have to be asked and measured?  She doesn't say, but I would imagine this is a four-hour interview to reach 1,000 conclusions about your expectations.

If you say it has to be a gal who cooks....knows something about timing belts, is at least 35 years old, and drinks beer from the can.....it might only list four people from the entire state.....then mention that two of the ladies are in the state prison.

To me, the question comes up....would you trust the AI to find the dream-person?

Then you come to the obvious....what if people lied about the 1,000 answers they gave to the AI?

How many filters would a 45-year old guy establish?  Five?  Twelve?  Forty?  

I paused over this...just on myself?  I might have twenty hard NO-GO filters established.  I wouldn't want a cult-gal....someone who constantly wants to walk on beaches...a paranoid schizophrenic....a Amazon-shaped gal who was a former wrestler....someone with ten weird tattoos.....or a Vega-gal.  Environmentalist?  No.  Two-pack a day smoker?  No.  

I would imagine these AI folks would eventually come around and tell you in a blunt way.....you made it too difficult....there ain't anyone that weird to fit your profile.

Economics Chatter

 I saw this today on social media. Burger King pricing going up.

The thing that might bother people?  Well....how would summer of 2025 look?  A whopper being up around $8.50?  Fries being near $4.40?  

This is the problem with the inflation scale....you just don't have a slowing down affect within your line of sight.

Sticker-shock in 18 months....where you walk into a BK...finding the Double-Whopper menu....at $30 for one person?  

Same trend for pizza?  Where you might find a normal $15 2019-pizza....going for $22 today, and in the fall of 2025....maybe $30?

Counting Story

 I sat and paused over this AP story.  What the whole thing boils down to....the state of Califoria is reaching a point where they would NOT be able to complete a vote-count for probably two months.

Not able to finish by the time that the Electoral College convenes?  More or less....that's the case.

In fact, you could have lawsuits preventing the state from progressing until the ballots have been counted not just once but maybe twice.

Preventing an Electoral College ending?  Yeah, you get that impression.

Four Humble Thoughts Over The Demonstrations On College Campuses

 1.  Having seen some of the media interactions/interviews with the riot-players....I question how bright they seem....if attending college, and would ask.....is it possible to get a refund on your tuition if you are that 'stupid'.

2.  Looking at the destruction elements....at the end, someone has to clean up the mess and repair the buildings. This means a cost-factor.  I'm just guessing....for the August 2025 tuition 'number'....go start figuring a 30-to-40 percent increase on tuition.

3.  Trying to stay on this 'topic' for more than three days?  Personally, I just don't see  more than five minutes of interest in a 12-hour viewing cycle.  I'd have more interest with the Braves infield after spring-training, or Biden's walking style.

4.  If you handed a map to the protest-university crowd and asked them to point out the Gaza Strip....I doubt if 5-percent could locate it on a map.

Tuition Chatter

 This past weekend, I was clearing out stuff and came to a 1976 notebook.  

In that fall (I was in the 11th grade)....they had bused us all to some county 'opportunities' day.  Here were five or six colleges....number of trade of schools, and the military recruitment folks.

My conversation with the Auburn/Univ of Alabama folks?  Yearly tuition was $1,500...books were $250, and a whole year of room/board was priced at $1,700 roughly.  I wrote all this into the notebook.

The trouble in assessing all of this...I had no idea of a real occupation or path.  

The military recruitment folks?  The Navy guy seemed hyped-up to interest me.  Marines....less so.  The Air Force had me sold but then the pay thing came up....E1 equaled $400 a month (taking out taxes/SS....you made around $300 a month). 

That Friday night came and I spent two hours thinking over this, and concluded on numbers....the Air Force path made more sense.

Funny, I kept the notebook over the years.  

If you tried to price Auburn today?  Year of tuition is around $12.5k....books around $1,200, and room/board near $15.4k.  Then you come to beer, insurance, and extra pocket-money....probably near $8k a year.

An Election Rule Or Two You Might Want To Remember

In the event we pass the Democratic Convention (19 August to 23 August), and something happens to President Biden....to say he's out as a candidate (health issues one might assume)....what happens?

Well....the Democrats are 'empowered' to fill the empty seat, and it does NOT have to be the VP moving up.  In this case, the party chair would have a talk with with Democratic governors and House/Senate leadership.

In this scenario, I believe it's entirely possible that both the President/VP seats would change out.  

States in a position to say 'no'?  There are two states which have ironclad rules about changing the names after mid-August.  So unless lawsuits occur.....there would be two states denying the name change.

The Republican?  If Trump were knocked out? the Republican National Committee has a rule offering a 2nd national convention or itself (the RNC) could select a new candidate.

Am I suggesting an Oswald-like scenario?  No....but if you asked me....how many FBI or CIA Oswalds currently exist in the US....I would laugh and suggest over 100 easily.

If you suddenly crossed both Joe and Kam off the list in mid-September through this scenario?  In a matter of just a month....Joe would be forgotten, and Kam acting as President....would get almost zero media attention.

Just a curious thing to think about.  

The Slacker Generation

 We had a term in the 1970s/1980s in the Air Force....that we used almost daily....'slacker'.

A 'slacker' was a guy (usually) who didn't put much effort into his work, or his life.  This was the junior airman who wore clothing until it had a ton of body order....meaning he washed his clothing maybe once a month.  This was the guy who mostly hung around the barracks.....if they could find a way to get out of work/duty, then they put effort into that....and they rarely did anything worth discussing except watch TV.

Yeah, a slacker was a loser.

So it occurred to me this week....there's hundreds of thousand of these 18-to-29 year old slackers now existing in America.....living out of dad's house, and doing little in the way of progressing or getting ahead in life.

The trouble here?  Well....slackers don't vote.  They also don't date or get into relationships.  They don't get credit cards....mostly because they have no income.  The Democratic or Republican parties having anything to offer slackers?  No.

Are they even interested in leaving or getting a job?  There's no indicator of that.

As this group grows in the next decade....what exactly can any politician offer....to make them happy?

The College Demonstrations After The Smoke Clears

 Ten thoughts:

1.  I don't see any of these ending by mid-summer or the start of fall classes.  

2.  I think these demonstrations will continue through the Democratic Convention and be a major problem for the city of Chicago.

3.  Nationwide?  I'll predict a minimum of 500 police file disability papers because of injuries.  End cost for police units throughout the US will exceed $1-billion for health cost, and early retirement.

4.  At least 300 lawsuits will be created against both private and public universities for failing to provide education and safety.  Some of these will roll through all of 2025, and even to the end of 2026.  Total cost?  Five-billion-dollars.

5.  Tuition upgrades/cost?  Just for this fall semester, I would imagine schools like Columbia (currently at $66k a year)....will move the tuition close to $71k for next year.  The increase for August 2025?  Probably closer to $79k.  

6.  The donation crowd to the big-name university operations?  They will quietly up and leave.  

7.  Several national corporations will make it clear.....they aren't interested in graduates from the affected universities....leaving over 20,000 2024/2025 graduates standing there with limited job prospects.  The Justice Department will attempt to 'punish' the corporations, but find zero respect.

8.  In several southern states, the protest folks will be shocked that their acts got them into a 5-year potential jail-sentence, and the legal help provided.....has little to offer for a deal.  Upon entering state prisons....most will find the educational level of the prisoners equal to their college-level, and ask how that was possible.

9.  Some leaker within the FBI will admit they are tracking well over $100-million coming in to support the demonstrations from Iran, China and Russia.  Congress will ask why they aren't doing anything, with the answer leading back  to Biden's circle.

10.  The question nationally will be asked.....if 18-year-old kids are going to college and coming out four years later....more stupid....why go to college?  

Homework Chatter

 I saw this California story today....over a draft bill....AB2999.  The bill more or less.....says there's too much homework, and teachers need to craft homework to be LESS.  

Trigger here?  The idea is.....too much stress for kids.

I pondered over this.  As a kid in rural Alabama...at best, I had about 45 minutes of homework per day dumped on me.  But with a pause here and there....I'd done about 20 minutes of this before leaving school at 3PM.  The rest I did by 9 PM that night.

So I'm wondering....are they dumping three hours of homework on kids in California?  Are kids too busy to do homework?  

Just begs a lot of questions.

The Banking 'Issue'

 The simple nature of this banking 'problem'?

Well....you have a bank that thought commercial real estate....from hotels to malls...could be built, developed and operated...paying back the bank for its involvement in acceptable risk.  

So Covid came along, and whatever strategy existed for office buildings, theaters, hotels, stores, or even bank buildings themselves....could not focus and carry on....paying the bank loan back.

The bank's problem?  Well...it was now stuck with a structure of a present value (say $10-million) when the bank loan from 2018 (20 years) was for $60-million.  Selling it for faked-up value?  Now impossible.

Then you add the car problem....where people were convinced that a $80k car was reasonable, and over eight years of your stable job situation....you could pay the loan back.  Well....that strategy also went south.

The bank recovers the $80k 2-year old car, which probably is worth $45k max at present, but the loan money missing is $12,000.  The used car market presently?  That's also part of the story....so the car probably won't sell for more than $40k.

Credit card also in the mix?  Yes.    Some folks stand there with $20,000 in debt, and can't make the minimum of $1,000 a month.  

Home loans?  Same story.

Cities with loans?  If you had 40-odd businesses shut down over the past year.....you probably aren't making as much on property tax or sales tax.  

Did we have this type of mess in 1929?   No.  That bank failure era was mostly due to mismanagement of the vault contents.....with the bank books and the contents not being equal.  

FDIC having the assets to cover this?  No. 

What I tend to expect?  Three things:

1.  I expect some rushed-up meetings with the Fed and the White House....probably by early July.  The Fed will quietly admit a minimum of 20 bank failures to arrive by the conclusion of July.

2.  I expect the full point lessen on the prime rate.....to simply speed things up on the collapse.

3.  At some point in mid-July, I expect a Monday night live speech by the President to reassure the public. 

4.  Shortly after the speech....I expect gold and Bit-Coin to jump in a massive way.  At this point, more than 40-million Americans will attempt to remove cash from their accounts....ONLY to find that there is a cash-limit of $250 per day, and $750 per week.

5.  I expect by mid-August....more than half the banks in the US are under some type of review and reorganization.  

By this point, President Biden will admit that there is a limit to what can be done, and that Treasury notes apparently can't be marketed now.....because consumers don't consider them to be trusted.

Trying to scare people?  No....just reviewing 1929 history, and things appear in some similar nature.  

Beep-Beep Story

 California has a draft bill (SB 961) which basically says....if you sell a new car in the state, it has to have the technology to track the GPS location, the speed on that road, and to have a warning 'sound' to tell you that you've exceeded the limit by 10 mph.

I'll just say if you went to most car companies....they have the general tracking technology already, but you'd have to pay 'extra' for the detailed map which has up-to-date speeds.  As for the warning sound?  It's probably a 8-minute problem for some Japanese guy to wrap up.  

The question is....would you really want to pay extra for the monthly updates to the map technology, and do you really need a 'beep' to tell you that you exceeded the limit?

Would the beep sound eventually be replaced by some tune....like 'Highway to Hell'?

All of this just adding to the average cost of a car?  Well....yeah, that does seem to be the path.

Who Is Lee Oswald Today?

 My 2024 version of 1963's Lee Oswald?

He's a vet...probably having done a couple of years in the Army.  He's probably from some urban situation of the 2010 era.  

He ended up recruited by some foundation group that has some Republican agenda, and has been paid on various occasions to don a 'uniform', and carry Americana flags while wearing sunglasses.

About once a month, some guy from the foundation group comes by and leaves $3,000 in a cash envelop....for work accomplished.

On his social media page....he's anti-Biden...pro-Trump.  

He's lived in five or six locations since leaving the Army, and is on some medication for anxiety and panic issues.  He hasn't been on a date since 2019.  He games in his spare time.

The CIA/FBI have used in twenty different activities since Covid.  

Oswald-Like Scenario For Joe Biden?

 I paused over this idea for the past weekend.

The way it would work....about a week prior to the convention....with President Biden on a speech-tour....a MAGA-character would attempt to take down the President.  

Based on a CIA-FBI plan....this MAGA individual would be shot in the process to ensure the story does not unfold. 

There would be a fake Twitter account, which this person seems  very active for the past year....making  radical pro-Trump statements.

The original plan would be told to Biden, that  they would stop the guy before it got real serious.  But I suspect the Fed agenda would be to have Joe Biden out, Harris in, and the Convention is a replacement 'game'.

Turbo Week: 19 Aug 2024

 We are about 100 days away from the Democratic Convention in Chicago....scheduled for 19 August.

I suspect this will end up being more of a circus show, with massive violence, and news journalists mostly confused over what they see and think.

Delegates in a state of fear?  Yeah, and it's possible that a hundred of them decide by the evening of 19 August....to pack up and exit Chicago as the sun rises on 20 August.

An Expelled Story

 Back in the late 1980s....I worked under a senior officer in the Air Force who had a niece, and about once a month....he would relate the newest 'woes' of the college-age gal....in some Ohio public university.

Over the course of a year (I seem to remember this was the 2nd year of her adventure in college)....she'd been detained by the local police on three occasions (all alcohol-related, with minor damage to some bar/restaurant)....the niece's dad got dragged into a pay-up situation....around $4,000 in damages and court fees.  

At some point after that....there was some drunken fight in the dorm and the college finally called up dad and said 'finished'.  There had been apparently a warning or two issued prior to this....which dad was unaware of.  Dad came....picked up the daughter, and retreated to the house to restructure the situation.

Some alcohol rehab followed, and dad's plan to enroll her into another state public university had a problem.  As you apply and lay out what you see as a transfer....they will ask for the transcript, and the reason for the transfer is listed.  The new college said 'no'.....basically, they didn't want the trouble.

So a new application to yet another college was attempted....same story.

Three months pass then with no update from my boss....then he talks over the latest news....that the gal has been accepted into a private small college, with most all of the 2nd year required as a 'repeat' (meaning a 5th year required).  The selling point?  Well....this was in a no-name town with marginal alcohol opportunities.  

It was with this story that I realized that colleges do have a 'weapon' to use with problem-children, and rarely do people ever grasp that.

The Last Time I Went To A Red Lobster Restaurant

 The last time?  Probably in mid-summer 1992.

To be honest, I wasn't impressed and the place was mostly run by a couple of college kids as management, with 17-year old kids as the primary crew.

I read this AM....Red Lobster is up for bankruptcy, unless they find a new owner.  

I didn't know it....they've been around since 1968.  

How they fell apart?  Well....it goes to some idea that they could offer something called 'endless-shrimp' for a special price, and customers went overboard....with management really not grasping the cost impact. 

'Baby Reindeer' Viewing

 This week, I sat and watched the first episode of 'Baby Reindeer' on Netflix.  It's a UK production....total of 7 episodes.

To give the basic script (from a true story)....Brit start-up comedian has come to London....found no fame....ends up in a bar as a bartender, and bumps into this crazy (5-star) gal who turns out to be a stalker.

Comedy?  Well....there's a laugh or two about every ten minutes, but this is a fairly complex drama piece and you just start shaking your head.

The gal portraying the stalker?  Jessica Gunning, and she ought to get an Oscar for her part.

Yesterday, I finished up the 7th episode.  

Yeah, it's one I would recommend....but on the weird-level?  I just can't think of TV series that can rate with Baby Reindeer.   

Three Things I Haven't Figured Out

 1.  I watch a fair amount of the college student 'protest-action', and find it rather odd....they are camping out at the university instead of sleeping in their on-campus dorm, or off-campus apartment.  

But adding to this....all these tents are ultra-expensive North Face type tents ($700 type....not the $99 type that most of us would buy for a weekend camp-out).

It also appears odd.....no drugs or booze in the camping situation.  

Something ain't right.

2.  If you had 'real' money in a 401k or mutual fund situation....this chatter by President Biden on increasing the capital gains tax....ought to scare the crap out of you.  

If you tried to ask him how they came to this decision?  I don't think he can give you a single detail of the decision process.

3.  If you were unhappy, and changed genders.....finding a year later....that you were still unhappy....what's next?

I just look at this reality where people think their gender selection is the source of their unhappy nature, and wonder what solution number two....will be in this odd trend?

Law Story

 I sat and read through a regional piece this AM.....Oklahoma Senate has decided to draft up a law which would make illegal immigration a state crime and require them to exit the state permanently (yeah, you couldn't come back).

Legal?  Well....lets say Jose has been kicked out, and goes to NY....gets some type of Biden-blessing and is given a fed 'green-slip' to be legal.  Would the Oklahoma law still prevent them from entry?

This whole discussion?  If you had stood up in 1975 and said it'd be necessary to talk about this and draft up a law with such wording....people would have laughed.

To be challenged by the Biden Justice Department?  I would imagine a whole team will be brought in to fight this.

Future Reality

 Brit Sun newspaper came out with a piece and suggested that within ten years....humans will be sexing-up with robots.

Not a lot of facts....just suggestive.

What I do believe is that both men and women will relationship-up with virtual partners....having 3-hour conversations after they get home from work....feeling zero need for physical relationships.

By 2030....at least 10,000 people will be in this mind-set.  By 2040....probably 1-million will engaged in this new reality.

At some point, your virtual 'lady' ('Mandy') will monitor your meals, your refrigerator, grocery-shopping list (even ordering), monitoring your car repairs/budget/vacation travel, and arranging entertainment. 

'Mandy' will count your calorie....encourage weight loss....select your clothing style....act jealous on occasion...recite poetry....ask why you were late coming home....and be corrupted by evil Russian hackers.

The Large Groups Problem

Around my fourth year in the Air Force....I came to some conclusion one day....that probably a quarter of the people you rely upon (both enlisted, officers, and generals)....were not that capable in what you expect of their ability.

 Eventually, I came to this quote by George Carlin and it perfectly matched my attitude about managers, leaders and bosses.

In fact, I came to some point in my forties....where I realized that smart people figured out an exit-or-new-path plan....where they managed their own group of people.  They found success.

I watched a video piece this week....by a Australian police chief...warning people that if you spread fake news around, you'd get into police-trouble.  If you wanted factual data....you needed to just ask the police and they would be the 'owners' of truth.  I pondered this for a while....thinking that politicians in Australia are basically outdated at this point....you just need a full-time police presence to run everything.

It is a strange world that we live in presently.....thank goodness we have stupid people in charge.

College Degree Chatter

 

I worked with a guy (divorced) who was paying for his one and only daughter's college.  

Along about the middle  of the 2nd year,  she came over to Germany for the Christmas vacation and spent it with Dad.  

So this odd discussion came up.  She'd talked to two friends who'd finished up college and gone out with their degrees (this was about 2002), and found that whatever they'd majored in....was worthless on the pay-scale and finding employment.

My co-worker talked to someone who was a expert on this business, and they agreed to spend an hour talking to the daughter.  The daughter shifted her focus, and lined up a different degree path....adding an extra semester onto the situation.

I looked over this presentation by CNBC and readily agree....there's a fair number of disenchanted folks....who fall into this problem now.  The trouble for colleges?  Eventually, I think that a dozen degree paths are going to fall apart, with professors given a 'exit-door'.  

The Problem About The 'Send-Them-A-Message-Crowd'

 Back in the 2004-to-20010 era....I became aware of  a large segment of American society who wanted to send 'a-message'.  The receiver?  Banks, economists, politicians in DC, news journalists, state officials, social media, intellectuals, etc.

So when 2016 came up....I saw Hillary Clinton's entire theme and message in trouble.  Trump was to be this 'send-a-message' theme.  It didn't matter if half his positions were traditional Democratic positions.  His position on NAFTA being a failure and harming Americans?  Well....Hillary couldn't grasp how the mess had screwed over working-class Americans.

The 2020 election and Joe Biden?  The receiver-crowd thought that all the crap that they'd dump between 2017 and 2020....would have dissolved the 'send-a-message' crowd.  It didn't work.

Since 2021 with President Biden?  He's had 3-plus years to present a clear 'I-got-the-message' and generally failed.  Even on the migration business and potential to get illegals in to vote....all that did was trigger another five-odd-million generally-attracted-to-Biden voters (mostly blacks in big cities) to getting into a 'give-them-a-message' reality.

The mess with RFK Jr running?  Well....if you were disturbed with Biden and Trump....RFK is a natural at the 'send-them-a-message' theme.

The failure of the political folks to grasp how the 'send-them-a-message' business works?  This is odd part of the discussion.  You get the impression they believe the message business is a fad, and will eventually dissolve.  Nothing yet has shown that might happen.

About The Dead NYC 'Fire-Guy'

 

From the guy-setting-himself-on-fire-in-NY-City yesterday.....this picture was taken a few minutes before he lit up.

His message?  Well.....Biden and Trump are both in some coup attempt (fascist-coup).

I paused over this.

Without knowing anything else on the guy....on my master-conspiracy-index (1-to-100)....I'd index the guy at 95.

Who has conspiracy ideas that involve Trump and Biden together?  Well....I usually view a lot of news and at least will listen to various conspiracies.  Frankly, I can't come up with a single source who  believes one central fascist coup group....consisting of both Trump and Biden 'camps'.

The fact that the guy resides in St Augustine, FL?  Well....Florida folks generally believe a lot of oddball things....which about half of them often turn out half-true.

So my thinking is....lets discount the guy is crazy, and ponder upon the idea that people behind Trump/Biden (not themselves)....have set up some 1,200-page script for 2025 where the nation undergoes some massive civil spiral...meaning that both groups of enthusiasts are charged up for a coup-like event.  

I'm left to two ways of viewing this.  Either this guy (dead now) was a paranoid schizophrenic....or he got onto some wild conspiracy group who have figured out the script to the coup. 

My Feeling Of The Biden 'Uncle Bosie' Story

Getting to the basic story.....President Biden's uncle Bosie...was in WW II, and near the end....he ended up on a flight in the Pacific....crashing in some area where they had cannibals.  The legend of Bosie...is that he came up missing when rescue folks arrived and there has been this belief within the Biden family that maybe he made it out....swam out.....only to be caught by the cannibals.

To be honest.....no one much has ever heard the story before.  

The general location?  New Guinea. To be honest....at  least in that era....yeah, there were a few cannibals around in the region.

The story is just number 346 that he's told over the past four decades that might not be totally true (meaning fabricated to some degree).  

The problem I see?  Some gifted writer will be inspired and write some Captain Bosie WW II type story....crashing in a cannibal island area, and trying to survive for weeks without getting captured by the Japanese or cannibals.  

Commission Chatter

 I sat and and read through a short piece on California and Governor Gavin Newsom.  So the Governor feels that as the new $20-an-hour wage rate occurred....some funny things happened....some fast-food restaurants closed down....some shops cut 10-to-20 percent of their work-force, and menus for the most part escalated on cost.

To the word by the Governor is that a commission must be formed to find out what happened here.

In the mix of words....he also wants to know how replacing employees with robots fits into this whole 'mess'.

Who is on the commission?  Unknown.  Would the commission people have any restaurant or business experience?  No one says that.  What political nature would the members of the commission be?  Unknown, but if you asked me.....they have to be 'friends' of Gavin....therefore....Democrats.

My guess is that the commission members will rent a van or two....drive off to six to ten communities in the state, and spend a month asking questions.

In the end....they will likely admit three things to Governor Newsom.

1.  That the intended idea of fixing one single element of the state's businesses....actually has triggered a across-the-board problem...where virtually everyone is demanding $20-an-hour.

2.  Yeah, that robots are the only way to prevent $25 Big-Mac menu dinners.

3.  Yes, there probably are 10,000 former employees looking for fast-food jobs....because they got laid off.  

Personally, it begs the question....did Governor Newsom and crew ever think much over implications and consequences?  And then the question comes up....does this guy really show the talent to be President?

Manifesto People

So I gazed over this story from yesterday....18-year-old high school student....transman....arrested and charged up over plans to shoot up a Montgomery County, Maryland school. 

The key thing in this designed shooting operation?  A129-page manifesto.

I'm often amazed by manifesto people....the folks who write 100...200...300...400...pages of manifesto material.

I can sit and probably write 100 to 150 lines of material, then gradually get 'tired' and end it there.

Looking over this story....18 years old....they will drag this kid into an adult court and I would imagine a deal can be made...admit to X, Y and Z....go off for six years of prison and get out in 5 years. Men's prison?  Well....yeah, that would have to be the 'trick', if you were a trans-guy.

Manifesto people tend to have three major issues....(1) they want to fix the world. (2) Fixing in their mind is complicated.  (3) Violence of some nature tends to be somewhere in the solution.  

Just seems like someone should stand up and tell the manifesto people....go and write whatever you want, but just get to the key statement in three pages, and allow for solving some mess without violence or taxation.  

Climate Doom List

 Rainy?  Doom.

Sunny? Doom.

Cloudy?  Doom.

Chilly?  Doom.

Cold?  Doom.

Windy?  Doom.

Snowy?  Doom.

Draft Bill

 I sat and read over this piece in the AM.....California lawmaker proposing bill SB 1403.

The idea?  The bill would create a state a 'Genealogy Office' which would help identify residents who have some type of 'genuine' descendant status of being a slave and therefore....at some point....get state benefit payouts (at least they hint of this).

This guy?  Steven Bradford, a Democratic state Senator for LA County.

I pondered over this.

So lets say for one moment that 1,000 blacks show up on day one and fill out the forms (I assume it's a 7-odd page form), and somewhere on line 15....there's some question to name your great-great-grandma...who existed around 1860....in Georgia (not California).   

So, what legit paperwork will identify Grandma X...as the slave, and how will you provide your descendant status since 1865?

You got papers?

What if you were white, but you have evidence of great-great-grandma Sarah....was the full-up daughter of a slave on the Georgia plantation?  Maybe you even have papers to show Sarah as a 50-50 descendant-slave status.....would this California office certify you?

What if you and the last five generations of the family....have never been to California?

What if you were black, but actually your one single slave status relative....some guy who arrived in 1720....got unslaved after two years, and lived 'free' in the woods of northern New York?

I just see a office with forty-odd people fumbling around and realizing they've got a pretty big mess to explain.  

'Lost' Money

 I sat and read through four issues yesterday:

1.  The US gov't gave Ukraine around $6.2 billion dollars last year....if you asked how it was spent?   No one has any idea.

2.  Over the past five years....the state of California went and spent $24 billion dollars on homelessness, but they can't really tell you how even a nickel of the money was spent.

3.  Yearly, the Pentagon spends just over $2.3 trillion dollars, yet they also can't say much over how it was spent.

4.  Our US Treasury spent around $5 trillion dollars over Covid spending, but if you asked how it was spent....they have no idea.

I pondered these issues.  I can ask my wife (German nature) about grocery spending and where 250 Euro went last week, and she'll identify each item  in the cart and roughly what they cost.  If you asked me about all my new tire purchases from the past 10 years....I can pull out the receipts and tell you down to the last cent what I spent.

So I'm not really buying into the 'lost' nature of money and how you just pretend there's no paperwork/receipts.  

Ten Things I Expect By The End Of 2025

 1.  At least 3,000 Americans will identify as vampires.

2.  At least 1,000 Americans will be certified dead....due to their E-car running out of fuel in an emergency situation.

3.  Some evidence will come out to suggest a Sean 'Diddy' Combs connection to Hunter Biden.

4.  WNBA figures will demand that the NBA double their 'gift-money' to the league.  NBA players will draw and a line and say 'NO'.

5.  Talk will start up about developing a Transwoman hockey league.

6.  At least one US state will pass a law requiring you to be age 25....before buying tobacco products.

7.  At least one US state will approve a law to have 3-some marriages.

8.  Some 11-year-old kid will go to court to demand a name change to 'Hitler'.

9.  At least 5 US states will demand the federal government get out of student loans, or limit them to no more than $5k a year.

10.  Some teacher from Georgia will admit to having physical relations with two dozen students over a 1-year period.   It'll later be discovered that she was doped-up and just imagining the sex. 

Four Things I Tend To Believe

 1.  This Sean 'Diddy' Combs raid and the involvement of Homeland Security?

The story goes that most of his rooms in the California mansion (probably going back to the mid-1990s)....were rigged with cameras.  So he's had around 25 years to collect up blackmail video on various sports figures, politicians, religious figures and 'princes' (that came out two weeks ago....plural....meaning more than 1 prince).

So what I tend to believe....'Diddy' had power to control outcomes.  I think he has stuff on three central characters.  First being some female politician who probably holds a VP position.  Second being a male California politician who likely comes up in the 2024 election.  Third being a son of a Delaware politician who might be President.

I think Diddy indicated some 'favors' were in order, and some DC figures suddenly came to realize how Diddy had stacked the deck.

(I also have this working theory that Prince Harry was introduced to Meghan via one of these parties)

2.  Some poll was done....with only 52-percent of Biden-2020 voters thinking he's done well in the job.  The other 48-percent?  They say he hasn't delivered.

I tend to believe that almost one-third of Biden-2020 voters will either stay home or vote RFK Jr......with the case of staying home...hurting the party at large (House/Senate seats).

For this reason, I suggest it's a 99-percent chance that he is replaced at the convention.

3.  Generally, when you suggest an equity of outcome.....you will end up with people so disenchanted....that they will marginally do their job (just 'enough' will be popular to utter).

4.  If we emerge out of the Democratic National Convention with Joe Biden/Kam Harris....with no changes...same speech....same hype as 2020, then I see RFK Jr getting one-third of Joe's 2020 votes, and Trump wins.

Yes, to get any other outcome....Joe Biden has to be out of the picture.

Statistical Average of Iran Attack on Israel Last Night

Well....you add it up....170 Shahed drones, 30 cruise missiles, 120 ballistic rockets. 

99-percent were unable to arrive.  Meaning they were intercepted.

How the missile/drone guys explained to the clerics?  I'm not sure.  They probably made up a story, or just said all of them fell on Israel ground.

More action?  Well....each one amounts to some kind financial cost factor.  Maybe this show was a one-and-done situation.

The Thing About Iran

 For a number of years in Iran....things were run by intellectual folks under the 'king' (the Shah)...from 1941 to 1979.  

From 1979 on....things were run by a Islamic cleric 'council'.  So the guys in charge of the  economy, banking, sports, the police, energy, military structure, street repairs, gas and oil production, tourism, and 'whatever'.....were basically clerics.  

Their chief guidance?  Well...they can quote from the Quran.  Beyond that....their knowledge base would be that of a ice cream stand operator.

So you can imagine, for forty-plus years....the crew in charge has bumbled around and screwed up.

Last year, I was reading a summary of problems by a Iranian businessman.  He (since 2000) had been assessing his monthly profit.  He quietly took the profit and converted it into non-Iranian currency (literally anything other than the Rial).  If you do the math today.....you can buy with one dollar.....42,000 Rial.  In this guy's case....it doesn't matter if he's buying gold, Bitcoin, dollars, Euro....he's screwed.  Literally, nothing goes into a bank....in his case.  

He suggested the whole country is sitting and waiting for some major event to clobber the economy and force the dynamic change to occur.  

Here's the odd factor....this lack of trust means that Iranian banks who need cashflow....can't build up any sum....to act as a mortgage unit and loan out housing money.  If you were a 30-year old Iranian guy....married, and wanting to buy your first house/condo....you can't find any bank that wants to deal with you because they have very limited funds to loan out.  The typical game today?  You get invited to sign up for a home loan, but need around a couple of year of putting money in...before they loan you money out for the home purchase.

I would imagine if you explained this to a cleric....they'd just stand there and ask....what the hell would  you want me to do?  Restore confidence?  How?

So the clerics....day after day....are just mostly gathering around the 'cooler'....sipping tea....talking over Muhammad quotes, and faced with guiding a country without much knowledge or skill.

The military this morning...having to report the success (or really lack of success) with the attack on Israel last night?  I would imagine they quote something of a religious statement....saying God misguided their rockets, missiles and drones in some way.  The cleric has to react to the sarcastic comment, and likely agree.

It is a Monty Python-like comedy....just funny in an odd way.

Surgery Chatter

 I sat and read over this piece....trying to grasp the whole intent.

Best I can say....it is an Ontario person....an Ontario court, and I have some doubts that the success this person anticipates....won't occur.

As for how they identify themselves after surgery?  Well....it's anyone's guess.

Cost factor?  No one really says much over that.  I'm guessing it's in the $25,000 range or more.  The thing I'd mostly worry about....getting various infections out of the hospital unit after they wrap it all up.

This infection worry is the chief thing that keeps me always a bit worried in general.  Me ever checking in for anything?  It'd have to be an awful pain to get me to accept infection risks.  Yeah, it's to the level of being a phobia.

I live over by a major German hospital....that had a serious reputation for infections with incoming 'customers'.

For some reasons, I suspect this person....within a year or two....will be asking  to 'fix'  whatever was done and  won't be able to find a doctor willing to take on the case.

Eight Things I Expect In 2025 (By End Of The Year)

 1.  The House and Senate will attempt to halt all college loans, or limit what you can take each year ($10k or less).  Colleges will go into a massive fit over this legislation talk.

2.  Both the Army and Air Force will be forced to trim units existing because of a lack of manpower.  Both will discuss a $100,000 benefit (cash, zero-taxation) if you agree to sign up and stay for eight years.  

3.  The state of California, in need of cash to pay for operations....will turn to bank loans....discovering that no one will deal with them unless they agree to a 8-percent pay-back situation....meaning even more debt.

4.  Over 300 8-story or more commercial buildings throughout the US will be empty and unable to rent space.  A discussion to convert these to condo-housing will occur. Research will prove this unfeasible because no one has capital/mortgage potential...to buy such units....because they lack jobs.

5.  A week-long state-wide strike will occur in California in early 2025....over all other industries in the state should be paying $20 an hour.  Within six weeks....two additional states will face state-wide strikes with the same discussion.

6.  Evidence will be presented that the FBI/NSA....has secret blackmail files on forty-odd Senators/House members.  

7.  CNN, to meet revenue issues....offers Joe Rogan $300-million a year for a one-hour show nightly.  

8.  The AG and US Marshalls end up forming a 1,000 man force to go after New York City crime.  At least 200 other US metro cities ask for the same 'favor'.

My Gut Feeling On the OJ Case

 Odd how this comes up now....thirty years later.

First, I had the gut feeling that the cops gathering up evidence....did a 2-star job, and screwed up.

Second, that glove-business twisted the entire case around.

Third, had this been in any other state....I don't think the innocent situation would have been arrived at.

Fourth and final.....just an awful intense murder scene.  Robber would have stabbed/cut the guy, and ran quickly away.  Whoever murdered the two...had a strong desire to make it personal. 

Three Humble Thoughts

 1.  Dexter Reed shooting in Chicago.  I've watched the two-minute video over....maybe thirty times.  

The sole reason that the cops say they pulled him over?  Absence of Reed wearing a seatbelt.  

The action of Reed....rolling the window up as the cop approached?  It makes no sense....unless he'd been smoking a joint.

96 rounds fired?  That was the crazy part of the story.  Cops even suggest that Reed fired a couple....but one of the cops apparently shot around 50 rounds...meaning he reloaded at least three times.

Crazy confrontation.....just over a seatbelt issue.

2.  Trump now says NPR funding ends....as he becomes President.

NPR says 'fine'.....that they make enough off sponsor foundations to carry their message.

It's a bogus statement....in that the prime-receivers of the fed money for NPR....are the stations themselves.  If the fed money goes away....the stations won't exist to carry the NPR product....thus it dissolves.

3.  Lot of chatter in the past month that the way that the economy grows jobs....is by Americans taking second jobs because the primary job is not solving the finance issues.  

Biden's crew realizing this?  Apparently, no. 

The California folks working at McDonalds with the $20-an-hour situation?  I would imagine that 10-percent of them work a 2nd job somewhere...because they still aren't making it.

Does It Really Matter Who Wins November's Election?

I paused over this thought the other day, and it's been on my mind a good bit.

The US economy is in serious trouble, and it probably doesn't matter who wins in November....either Trump or Biden....because the 'game' is so rigged up.

Facts:

1.  Back in January, Yahoo Finance wrote up a piece....roughly 8.7 million Americans working two jobs to make ends meet. Roughly five-percent of the nation.

2.  Brookings Institute reported late summer of 2023....around 7 million American men between 25 and 54....aren't working.  Zero interest, or they got a great sugar-mama to pay their bills.

3.  Automotive News: Summer of 2023....they reported rejections for car loans were at the 21.8-percent (highest rate reported).

4.  CNBC in the fall of 2023....reported that home loans were being denied....rate of 9.1-percent.

5.  I gazed at mortgage rates yesterday.  30-year fixed?  7.34-percent.  15-year fixed?  6.78-percent.  30-year VA?  6.70.

Everyone is freaked out over the rate, and it won't return to 4-percent.

6.  $18 for a Big Mac menu in California now? 

If you follow the $20-an-hour wage situation for restaurants...there's a few non-restaurant workers now saying it's NOT fair, and they want the same wage.

You are about to see this massive increase in cost across the state, and people suddenly saying...no thanks, we can't afford a $15 movie ticket, or a $24 car-wash.

Whoever wins in November is stuck with a massive and decade-long mess that cannot be resolved or fixed nationally.  Trying to compare it to 1929?  No....even 1929 would have some fixes that were possible (with the right people, not FDR). 

ID Story

 I sat last week and observed this story and it's been on my mind for several days.

For four years....almost every single day...there's been some dumbass event to unfold with either the Biden-team, Biden himself, or the campaign-staff folks.  

It was mildly this way in the Bush II years and maybe half-as-much with Obama.

Then I wondered about the ID thing...that if you were some black guy from NY City....if you go by what NPR says or any of the national news people....there's odds that you don't have an ID.  So you could not have attended the Bidden-Obama-Clinton fundraiser.

Getting this message via the news media?  That was a mistake.  

Business Model Chatter

 I took a business class while attending Louisiana Tech at night (while in the Air Force).  It was an interesting class because the professor (masters degree and all) had gone out five years prior with an idea....then failed miserably in 18 months.  He went through a learning process...writing up his own paper (30 pages) of where he went wrong in the process of building a business model.

He was brutally honest in the class....what he had been taught in the late 1960s for his degree...was great on paper, but in apply all that crap to reality, it was mostly worthless information.  It was stuff that college couldn't teach.

We spent 2.5 hours that night covering the singular topic, and I will admit....I had a lot of wise professors with Louisiana Tech...but this guy impressed me.

I left that night fairly well consumed on the topic of business models.  You have to have a written model in planning a business, and have an understanding of local/state taxes.  It impressed upon me....you have to account for sales taxes, property taxes, and the social security taxes of your employees.  You also have to plan out the cost of monthly operations with salary, and to be successful....you need plus-numbers.  

Meaning of plus-numbers?  You have to start out expecting dismal numbers for the first six months, and eventually see a trend developing where there is profit.  If at the first year concluding....this has yet to happen, you need to prepare for an end-process.

I sat this week looking at the California pursuit of $20-an-hour for restaurant workers.  Whatever business model they had for 2023....it's dissolved entirely now.

A burger operation now concerned?  If you had a burger-men dinner for $12 to $14 in 2023....under the new model.....you probably are selling the same menu for $16 to $18 now.  Figure the upswing on costs with taxation?  There's probably another 50-cents made for the state and local community.  

But here's the full impact....other folks (non-restaurant workers) now want the $20-an-hour deal.  Politicians?  Now in trouble.

People outside of California?  Well....they will want the $20-an-hour deal as well.  So at some point, you will see some Louisiana gas station, or some Alabama pancake 'house' doubling up their prices because their employees won't work for $15-an-hour anymore.....they want that California deal ($20).

Imagine driving up to bar where you used stop on Thursday nights after work....spending a couple of bucks on beer, and buying a $12 plate of food....but now....by the time you wrap up the beer, food and chatter with the buddies....you've spent $30. 

What I see coming?  I think a whole bunch of people are going to cut back on their budget, and just say 'no'.....they can't spend freely anymore.

That's the new reality.  And your business models?  Well....they will dissolve away. 

NPR Chatter

 

There was a fair amount of chatter yesterday across Twitter...over NPR.

The trend?  Well....'clicks' upon NPR-related stories are way down....probably by 60-percent.  

A key-player within NPR also admitted that a fair number of the employees are now far-left in political beliefs.

Fixable?  No.....you can't release or fire the group without a massive court episode.

From the 1980s through most of the 1990s....I listened to 30 min a day (mostly when jogging) on average of NPR.  Around 2004, I gave up on the network....considering more or less a propaganda organization.

My fix?  I'd go to the states and public stations that the US government finances (not NPR itself).....and just do a 50-percent cut on their money.  Then I'd tell them....each year....it'll be another 50-percent cut.  At that point, the listening audience within 3 years will be so dismal....that NPR will just dissolve itself.

Three Things You Eventually Figure Out

 1.  As grocery stores in metro areas of the US are experiencing serious theft problems...perhaps seeing $100,000 a day go out the door....they have to reassign a pricing scheme to make up for losses.  

So you have stores saying product X that was $7.99....throughout the US....is now $8.99.

The store in rural Tennessee without much theft?  Well....they simply you pass you to the $8.99 pricing, to help the poor store in SF with it's losses.

So you are paying for inflation, and for SF crime....even thought you've never been to SF.

2.  As much as wrestling is 'faked-up'.....it's now dawned upon 75-percent of the nation....that politics is equal to wrestling, and just as 'fake-up'.  When you see these interviews.....'Bulldog' and 'Rico' about to get rough on the announcer, and you then watch Senator 'Bulldog' and House member 'Rico'.....it's the same thing.

3.  A 75-year old guy who graduated ONLY from high school....would be considered at college-level today....because he's more 'gifted' and intelligent than the high school kid finishing school today.  So you pause over this, and why?

My View of the WNBA

 The first game I watched of WNBA (women's basketball) was around 2012 (12 years ago).  It was crappy play....both teams had one decent player each....the camera guys were careful not to show the stands.  I would imagine at best....maybe 5,000 folks in the arena.

Over the past year, I've watched probably six games of the Iowa women's team.  They were sharp....prepared, and the games were thrilling to view.

Based on perception....I think at least four of the national teams are more than capable of playing WNBA teams and most nights....beating them by ten points minimum.

The problem with the WNBA?  They just have never improved.  Each team  markets themselves with one pure star and the rest are just average players.

Attendance average?  5,000 to 8,000 per night.  You figure $30 per ticket (for the lesser seats)....so with 7,000 folks....you might have $210,000 made off tickets, and another $250,000 off drinks, food, and parking.  So a half-million per night.  

You go and pay the arena for heat, security.....then you pay for coaches, travel, hotels, and ref's...there's no doubt on my view.....the NBA has to be funneling a quarter-million each month for each team....to keep them surviving.

Five Things To Happen By 2030

 1.  The NCAA girl's basketball program will falter as trans-ladies arrive and demand entry.  

2.  The WNBA (women NBA program) will dissolve because trans-women arrive and demand to be on teams, with the LGTBQ-plus folks highly upset about this, and creating a massive dividend with lesbians throughout the US.

3.  Both the Air Force and Army will fail miserably in recruitment and attempt to get Congress to 'draft' people.  This will become a huge issue, with more than 75-percent of the public against it.

4.  The owners of Star Wars....shuts down production for a period of ten years....because of so many failed movies.

5.  Republicans start to bring up that so many blacks lack IDs....that they can't do banking business across the nation.  The news media will be forced to admit this is a bunch of BS.  

Clock Story

 

I paused over this story in the AM today.

Analogue clocks in schools are being eliminated...because kids can't read 'time'.

I pondered....what happened.

After I joined the Air Force, I sorta got into the 24-hour time business....so when you said 16:44....I knew immediately it was 4:44 PM. I even knew the 16:44 L (local time) versus 16:44 GMT (meaning hours ahead).

It wasn't rocket-science.

I stepped into a watch display area last year, and it's interesting how the bulk of watches (probably 60-percent) are still analog in terms of nature.

But if you look around at the 16-to-20 year old kids (male/female)....no one much is wearing a watch.  If you asked for the time....they'd pull out the smart-phone and cite the digital time displayed.

This happening in one single generation?  That's the odd thing.  

The Most Entertaining 5 Minutes of My Life

 About six years ago....I went to NY City....six days.

Around day 3, I walked into a Starbucks (near the Hotel Roosevelt).  Six ladies ran it.  

It hit me in the line (before I'd ordered) that all six had ear, nose, and lip piercings....to the extreme.  Tattoos?  Yeah....all  over their arms and necks.  From my imagination....I'm just guessing I asked.....each had at least 20-odd 'other' piercings/tattoos....in places I couldn't observe.

I order my coffee and stood there waiting.

I really wanted to take my camera out, and take pictures....but the risk factor of getting beat-up was too much.

You don't see this kind of thing in Alabama, or for that matter...in Germany.  In the 1970s....they could have hired out to traveling circus shows and charged folks $3 for a 3-minute viewing.

Ten Random Thoughts

 1.  This BS statement that the US/NATO will pursue getting Ukraine within their NATO structure?

First, it would have to be approved by all members of NATO.  I don't see Turkey or Hungary agreeing so it's a BS topic.

But adding to it....if I were Russia, I'd say you were now on the enemy list and send out 5,000 special forces personnel to crap up dams, railways, bridges, and nuke power plants....to send a message.

2.  This prosecutor character (Wade) out of Georgia seems to be in more trouble with the ex-wife, and being dragged back into court....over failure to pay bills.  

3.  This idea of naming Dulles Airport (Virginia) after Trump?  Well.....it got brought up this week in the House.

Here's the thing....if you asked 10,000 Americans where Dulles was located....95-percent would have no idea. While a major airport....it's also a unknown airport.

4.   Just odd...Fed still hinting of a rate cut by the end of 2024.  If you listen to business and banking folks....a quarter-point does NOTHING.  Even a half-point....does NOTHING.  So the Fed chatter?  Just BS?

5.  Just odd in Maryland, they keep talking about a tax hike in the state, and keep wondering why Republican interest for the Senate race is so high.

6.  Highest crime rate in NYC....in 20 years?  And the mayor says it's just a perception problem.  For the record, 386 murders in NYC for 2023.

7.  There's chatter going on in the Texas border region that the cartels are seeking intelligence on all the Sheriffs of the region....either to blackmail, or counter through intimidation.  

8.  These 5-star vacations that Biden went on....paid for by wealthy folks?  Well....he was supposed to....by law....report the cost to the gov't.  He skipped that....saying either he forgot, or that it was to be reported....sooner or later.

9.  You just keep looking for people and groups to unify under President Biden, and it seems like they walked off and don't feel unified.

10.  This Bird-Flu BS?  You better start to prepare for Covid II.  

Real World

 I gazed at the short story out of NYC, and was left to imagine the moment when the TSA guy hit the 'crown-jewels' of the translady, and how he showed his apology.

He could utter....'sorry, maam'.  He could have offered some ice to resolve the pain.  He could have offered some sympathy.

But it's an interesting scene....security checkpoint and some lady half-bent-over and sobbing and you passing by.....probably thinking the lady's aunt died or her husband left for the FEDEX-delivery-lady.  The reality is....her balls got whacked.

Doom Story

 

I paused over this story....over several sites this AM.  

"100 times worse than Covid."

The trouble here....after dealing with Covid and the political/economic affects, I'd say around sixty-percent of the country won't participate in another Covid-like experience.

Economically?  The nation is already in a dangerous recession situation, and if you invented another 2-year Covid-episode....it'd finish off probably two-third's of the banks in the nation.

Would you want Joe Biden steering this mess?  Probably not.

Just shaking my head....this won't work a second time.

TB

 Well....it's a curious development.  I'm guessing state authorities are talking to the Fed and asking for advice....with nothing being said or offered in terms of help.

If there are 55 just in Chicago, I'd guess in NYC....it's close to 200.  Across the US....it's probably in the 3,000 range.

As you bunk up a hundred guys/gals in some gym or open warehouse.....it'll just spread around.

In five years?  You probably will know at least one neighbor who got TB somewhere.  Funny how we thought we got rid of it.

Gen Z Problem

 

I sat and pondered over this item today.

Basically, Gen-Z people have a particular problem....when you (the non-Gen-Z'er) converse and say something (maybe 4 lines)....they pause over what you said and try to interpret the words and meaning.

They also try to establish if you said something harsh, critical or negative.  

It would be like some chimpanzee trying to review your actions as friendly or hostile, but having no clear ability to grasp much beyond you showing your teeth or offering them a banana.

So imagine yourself in a position where there's a 6-minute talk between you and the Gen-Z 'kid', and you see at least eight different facial expressions indicating they are reacting in some way in a frightened or negative way.  The 6-minute talk?  Well....it might have been about restocking the paper trays for the copy machines throughout the company floor, or ensuring the horses get fed by 4 PM.

Yeah, this is crazy stuff to realize, but it begs the question....how will they survive in the adult world?

Three Things

 1.  I noticed over the weekend...someone brought up a receipt issue from a fast-food burger place (Carls Jr).  They were asking at the clerk's point....if you were eating there or leaving with the food (bagging required). 

Once you established bagging required....they charged you 10-cents.  I assume for the paper-bag.

Yeah, this is how bad this whole dining out thing has gotten.

Would I pay for the 10-cents?  No.   I'd probably just carry some re-useable bag with me and throw the food in it.

Over a year?  Well....if everyone did that....like the Pizza Hut folks charging me 20-cents for the box, or BK charging 10-cents for the bag, or the donut-folks charging me 10-cents there.....I might go throw away $10 a year....for what was free before.

2.  Ten percent of society is probably walking around and wanting to share how their childhood and ancestral trauma fell apart (20 years ago) and is now responsible for their repressed guilt and rage. Other than talking continuously about it....consuming drugs and alcohol, there's not much hope for them ever being 'fruitful'.

3.  There's a bill (draft currently) floating around Vermont right where...if passed....it would mandate that libraries would not provide a listing of your kid's reading material, from age 12 on.

I sat and pondered over it.  As a kid in rural Alabama...using the county library...I can remember them having zero lists.  They just knew the books you had out currently.  

Having parents monitor your reading material?  Is this how far we've gone in the past forty-odd years? Would it be necessary....only because the library started a kinky-sex section and having bondage novels for 14-year old kids?

This is how weird things have become.

At the current pace of things...I expect some 14-year olds to openly challenge marriage laws and get minimum age requirements tossed out.