What I Think The November Election Will Come Down To?

 Three things have shifted a fair number of votes:

1.  Migration/immigration effects in metro cities like Chicago and NYC.  Locals with Democratic leadership in full view....are peeved. This crisis will go back to Biden's record, or lack of a record.

2.  A banking crisis with commercial real estate in a mess....banks holding failed property and unable to dump it for the value assigned.  This trend....with 200-plus banks in failure status...will be leading FDIC to admit they don't have the funds to cover each person's bank accounts. 

3. A lot of the Harris AG and SF prosecutor 'history' will be laid out and it probably won't be a positive resume to brag about.

So I will add this one odd factor....RFK Jr probably will take one out of ten Democratic votes.  

The Thing About Crazies

 I sat and read a piece today....which basically said.....with women who profess being  left-of-center (no idea how they graded themselves)....age group of 18 to 30....just over 50-percent of these women have been advised that they have some type of mental 'condition' (left to you to guess what it is).

With the same survey....if you were a woman in the same age group but professed that you were right-of-center....its only around 20-percent of this group who seem to have some type of advised mental 'condition' (left for to guess what it is). 

So I looked it up...being a guy, I was concerned.  Guys over 65?  Well....it's only about 8-percent of guys claiming right-of-center status....who've been advised that they have some type of advised mental 'condition'.  I felt relieved to some degree.

All this mental 'condition'  BS?  Well....you just are left to wonder....are these crazy people with paranoid schizophrenia, or just a bunch of doctors who see 'easy marks'?

I worked with an Air Force officer who wasted college and got medical degree that was worthless in the end.  His job after college?  Well....he worked in a high-end clinic in Miami.....mostly signing prescriptions and reassuring women in their 40s....that they had such-and-such problems.  He continually pushed on the clinic director....that the drugs being assigned (handed out)....didn't really help anyone. After two years of this....he went to the Air Force recruiter and signed up as a officer.

The thing that bothers me with the trend.....if you look toward 2030.....there's going to be a lot of women in the age group of 30 to 40....with mental issues, and we probably can't sustain American society with this many folks, unless you bring in a bunch of non-crazy migrants.  Maybe Joe Biden's wisdom was at work here?

Two Things

 1.  Pete Buttigieg quote from Sunday: "If you look this up at home you will know that crime went down under Biden, and crime went up under Trump."

The problem here....virtually all major urbanized cities went to a new policy in 2020...NOT reporting crime to the national database with the FBI.  

2.  There is some BS-rumor that Ford is working on a technology that if you were speeding....the 'car' itself would report you to the cops.

Just guessing, if true....Ford's finished as a car-maker.

Seven Things

 1.  Where this Florida condo crisis will lead onto?

Well...if you were the HOA of a 300-unit building and found problems which need 'fixing'....you'd naturally hand out assessments....giving each unit-owner a $100k bill.  

I'd take a guess...at least seventy of the occupants would be unable to  pay the $100k and quickly jump into selling the property....then finding out that you can't get 100-percent of the value.....or even 70-percent of the value.  You (as the owner) wake up two months later....no buyer, and the HOA doing court activity to seize your property....meaning a total loss of investment.

So the HOA at this point thinks the property can still be sold and they get their money.  Well....two months later, the HOA now realizes fifty of the condos can't be sold, and they hand out a fresh new assessment to the remaining occupants....to pay more....to  make up for the losses. This fresh new  2nd bill....adds up to $55k each.  

Another round of people trying to sell quickly and exit starts up.  This second group amounts to 75 of the remaining condos....meaning one out of three of the total are now HOA-owned and empty.  

By 2027, around 500,000 condos in Florida are HOA-deadends.....with some HOAs repackaging the sales price  to 10-percent of what it  was in 2023.....triggering a state-wide crisis.

3.  Packaging VP Harris as a nice-moderate-Communist with good intentions....probably won't sell to working-class Americans.

4.  Just a gut feeling, but around forty-odd countries in the world who generally get US 'free-money' (grants)....will be told your grants are ended unless you agree to take failed refugees back.  

5.  At some point in 2025, I expect at least one US bank to make up a rule....no car loan for a gas-powered car.  

6.  Elon quote: "If evil people hate you, well, you might be doing something right."

I might extend it....if stupid people hate you....you might be doing something else right.

7.  If you were browsing for quotes from major news sources over the past year....suggesting that Biden's mental competency was top-notch....I would suggest 99-percent over the past week have been removed.  

Just odd how they came to this decision not to continue the hoax.  

Six Things

 1.  I noticed last week.....'childless-cat-ladies' came up a fair bit.  VP candidate Vance made the reference...."We are effectively run in this country...by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they've made, and so they wanna make the rest of the country miserable, too."

I pondered over the comment.

First, it is generally regarded as a female mental issue...OCD-related....where women are into a compulsive thing....to hoard up cats.  Guys don't do it....as far as I know. 

Vance meant it as a slam where a woman has heard some 'position' or 'message' and bought into it, without much thought or discussion....as one might accomplish the hoarding of cats....without much thought or discussion.

What I did find amusing.....a fair number of women came to the defense of childless-cat-ladies'.  But as you looked who said what....it was mostly childless-cat-ladies who had done remarkably well in life....without collecting/hoarding cats (yet).

2.  It took the FBI about 13 days to determine that Trump got shot near the ear.  One day, the FBI may come to talk about JFK's killing.

3.  Indiana went and passed a law that says if any law-enforcement individual (not just local and state)....uses deadly force to enter your house.....you (the citizen) may use deadly force in response to the act.

It's a sign of what will likely come to 49 other states over the next decade.

4.  There's a trend started up in the business world.....where the company has created what I'd call 'adult-safe-spaces'....where you the employee can go and 'chill'.

So this guy took a picture of the 'room' on his floor....what appears to be a old broom closet.  They put a lamp, small table, and a nice cushioned-up chair there.  There's a artsy painting on the wall.  I'd assume they spent about $350 to paint and decorate the room.

In my 'day'....you usually exited the shop/office and stood/sat in the smoker's corner behind the building.  I usually went there with the smokers (I never smoked) to chill out and get the latest gossip.  I never did think of it as a safe-space....just where you heard a lot of weird stories over stupid or drunk co-workers.

5.  I'm of the opinion that if a big UFO came down in California and the aliens offered sanctuary to some socialized planet with free drugs....half the population of the state would crowd on within 24 hours and ask for relocation....with no questions further asked.

Once into space....the aliens would hit the air-lock button and fix the state problem real quick. 

6.  Just an odd feeling.  The selling point in the past week for VP-to-President candidate Harris?  Tough prosecutor!

So...would she go and enforce migration law, or criminal law?  

She's going to have a problem in selling this 'brand/message'.  

All fake chatter in nature?  Well.....it might have worked in 1988, but most people are skeptical of this BS today.  

Five Things

 1.  Does being the 'Czar' of anything in the White House mean anything?

Look....it's a BS-creation (Frankenstein-like) with a pay-situation, but no office to really manage.  You show up on Sunday political-talk shows to hype some special project that the President supports.

It'd be like getting the 'Herpes-Czar' position, and your job is just to hype herpes across America.  

If I could have a Czar position?  I'd like to be a beer-Czar....to talk, drink and converse daily about beer.  

2.  Kam covering up Joe's mental decline?

Someone did a national poll, and three out of five folks say 'yeah'.  The longer that Joe hangs around....saying goofy stuff....the more this number will grow.  Just odd how things are now arranged for the election.

3.  What does root-cause really mean?

I had finished high-school and gone off to the Air Force in 1977....when I heard this term first used (root-cause).  This was in a class (mandated) where they were doing a 'brain-dump' and wanted me to be impressed by the stuff they defined as 'root-cause'.

They went around the group of fifteen-odd people at the end...wanting us to say how 'wonderful' it was to be enlightened.  I said something to the effect....there's a root-to-the-root-cause, and inferred their perception of where the problem started...was wrong.  I tried to be kind and treated them as respectful as I could...but I got the impression that my perception of 'root' went further down some 'rabbit-hole' that they weren't willing to discuss.

4. If you whored-up and your 'daddy-lover' gave you a BMW and Mercedes (1990s)....then you probably didn't report the value of the gifts to the IRS.  You can guess who I'm talking about.

5.  Someone did a chart of 'value' on Ford....if you'd gone out in 1999 and spent $10,000 on stock.  You'd have (with dividends)....$8,014 today.  Meaning?  You lost big-time.

Speculation Story

 I sat and read through this story.  It does come from the NY Times, but after about two minutes....I put the article to 'sleep'.

Speculation index value?  On a scale of one-to-ten....I give it a minus-4.

It's the kind of speculation that would require four shots of a good brandy, and repeat every twenty-two minutes.

In my speculation....I think it passed via a Mountain Dew glass bottle and brought glass fragments up to Trump's ear.  The Dew effect?  It's what made Trump raise his arm in a big fist, and pumped him for the moment.

To be honest, I'd like to ask the NY Times folks....what speculation they can dig up over the 1969 Atlanta Braves failure to beat the NY Mets.  I'm also interested how Joe Biden appears 3 inches taller than last week and if they could speculate on that.  Also....I'm interested to know how they see the alien/UFO business....on pure speculation.

The reason I kinda quit reading the Times and referencing them?  Well....it was for crap like this.

California

 I sat and ponder over this in the AM today....California Governor Gavin Newsom has now issued an executive order for the removal of homeless camps in the state.

How this will occur?  Well...I would imagine the police will start some effort and find that the groups exit the jail and re-start another camp.....at a new location.

After six months of zero accomplishment....I expect the National Guard to be dragged into this....with the same result.

After a year of this....about half of the homeless folks (say about 40,000) will end up on a free bus-ride....to Portland (my prediction).  

Taking a bunch of paranoid schizophrenic types, and forcing some 'change' into their lifestyle?  It's just got bad luck written all over it. 

For you folks in Portland who thought crazy things had peaked out.....well....you might want to prepare for 2025.  

Flight Accident Story

So this is a funny story in a way.  As you might know....I spent 22 years in the Air Force.  Over the years, I noticed a lot of screwed-up things....some got people into trouble....some just came and went.

In the early part of 2024....there's a Air Force bomber (a B-1B) that crashed...$450-million gone.  It happened at Ellsworth AFB.

What they basically did....they missed the runway by 100 ft.  When this occurred, there were a lot of criticism how the crew (2 guys) could have done this.  

So an investigation started up.  

The team came to a couple of failure points.  

Flying operation supervision....meaning a ranking officer around to remind people of good  habits, bad weather, or minimize risks?  That was laid out there as a problem.

Bad weather? Yep....that was a problem.

Something called "an unhealthy organizational culture that permitted degradation of airmanship skills."  This typically means the pilots party too much. 

Then they got to two interesting aspects. 

Once you show up for the flight....you end up in the room with the pilot gear and you put on X, Y and Z.  For some odd reason....one guy in this group wasn't wearing proper-fitting gear.  They don't explain this to any detail....but they note that this was the one guy who was injured when he ejected out of the plane.  They don't say it was the pilot's fault or the NCO who was preping him.

So here's the funny part.....the ejection seat?  It was set to 211 pounds.  Based on what they said....it probably would have worked still ok.....up to 245 pounds.

If you are 6'1".....then your max AF weight can be up to 208 pounds.  Enlisted or officer....it doesn't matter.

As they carried the injured pilot  off to the hospital after the event....they weighed him....without all the gear....he came to 260 pounds.  Meaning?  He was 52 pounds over his max.

In the final report....they just kinda hinted around....his injuries came mostly from the excess weight.  Him getting disability later in life?  Well....they don't say anything but I doubt that they will ever approve his disability status.

How you get to 260 pounds....if you were only 73 inches?  That might be interesting to note.

What'll happen now?  I'm guessing for a year or two...the Air Force is going to get super-strict over weight, and likely start weighing everyone at least two times a year.  Pilots?  They probably will get a lot of  attention.

Just Eighteen Humble Thoughts

 1.  As much investigation that occurs when you buy a firearm....you'd think an equal amount of investigation would occur when you register to vote.  But you can't find a single thing to suggest such.

2.  Just stand and admit it....the Trump VP choice?   His mother was a junkie....period, no exception.  She was a crappy parent, and did everything possible to screw up his life.  Vance ended up with Grandma, who did everything possible to reverse the damage done.  There's some Trump morale here....being played out in front of the nation.

3.  If you were ever appointed 'Czar' of something....by any President....you got paid to mostly talk in front of the camera, but produce zero results.

4.  We are today a nation of dependency...whether by fate, design or accident.  You might want to ponder about that for a while.

5.  If you'd said back in the 1980s....that we'd have a female candidate who'd 'whored-up' for twenty years of her life....running for President....people would have laughed you out of the room.

6.  If you are a company producing 'fake' meat....I'm not giving you good odds of financially surviving.  You might want a plan 'B'.  It's like the people who made fake-Coke....where are they today?

7.  If I were a white plain American guy with Democratic Party views....wanting to get voted up for city-council, mayor, state-house, or the US Senate....I'd probably be working on  classifying myself as either disabled, trans, gay, or half-black/Hispanic.    

8.  When some group says you need to be net-zero....the last thing on their mind is a cheaper energy bill.

9.  If you stood up and said lets fly from Huntsville, Ala to Vegas....I'd tell you there's too much risk of flight issues, and lets just drive there.  

10.  In the last 24 hours....watching various newscasts.....I keep hearing the term 'root-causes' (probably up around sixty times now).  Just odd....so many networks/podcasts, and they utter the term 'root-cause' in the first minute to prepare you for their 'message'.

11.  If you've spent five minutes talking and I interpret your 'message' as something written by a nine-year-old kid.....you've got a serious problem.

12.  If you own a dozen rental properties, and have legal actions going  on to kick out five of these people.....are you that confident that once you have an empty house....that you will have a steady person to rent it?  I'll just offer the opinion....we are at the highest rate of risk/trust....in fifty years.

13.  We are reaching a point where 'half-wit'  status (H-W) will like an identifying symbol of who you are.  Some people will be proud of the H-W.

14.  I think we need to invent the term 'Working-Class-Lite'....to identify people marginally making enough, and likely living in dad's house, or bunking-up with three buddies.

15.  If Darwin sailed off today (2024) and came back to report evolution....half of society would immediately accept his Twitter announcement, and the other half would dump all over him that he was confused and full of BS.   He'd likely exit the science business and retire off to some cattle-ranch in Wyoming.

16.  Number one problem in  America today?  People aspiring to surround themselves with like-minded people....who distribute BS you prefer....accepting no other reality.

17.  Maybe it's ok to hire-up dementia folks to manage banks or run fire-departments.  Maybe it's been that way for the past forty years, and it would explain why the nation is so screwed-up.

18.  If you asked people in 1985 to explain 'evil'.....it probably wouldn't match up to what people in 2024 would say.  

Seven Observations

1.  That plan by Ford to build a E-car plant in Canada? Dissolved.

2.  I have a odd 'tick' to develop.....each time I see VP Harris come up on TV....I bump the sound up a notch (not muting as you might expect).  

I end up spending a fair amount of time....trying grasp what she said, and what she meant.

It rarely makes any sense, and seems to be text written by a 3rd-grade kid.  

Back in the late 1990s....Microsoft's WORD came out with a text-checker which graded your written report.  So you could see if the text was at college-level, 10th-grade-level, or possibly even 6th-grade level.  For about six months, I actually made an effort to write at college level (helped by Microsoft's product).  Eventually I was told by my boss (a AF Captain)....I needed to tone down my writing.  So I went to the 6th-grade level.  It made him happy.

I get the impression that Harris has kept this version of Microsoft, and mostly has her speeches/text....set to 6th-grade-level.

3.  Just appears to be an awful lot of people who say they are leaving the US, if Trump wins.  

I've debated over this....wondering if you had 100,000 folks start some migration trail....would they be accepted in various countries?  Japan and South Korea?  NO....that won't happen.  The UK?  I'm not sure you'd be getting a better deal.  France?  You might dwell there for three months and then admit....there's problems there.  

I hate to say it, but I think the vast majority will quietly re-enter the US and admit they had a mistake in leaving.

4.  Was there anyone really in charge of this Trump visit in PA?  The more they talk about it....I get the impression that the Secret Service hired some 12-year old kid named 'Timmy' to organize things.  The blue-jacket squad folks to protect Trump?  He'd done just as well with a dozen Mexicans hired from the Piggly Wiggly parking lot.

5.  In every chaotic event.....there are potential exceptions to the ending.  But when you have five or six exceptions that come up....it's just not a coincidence.

6.  I just see an awful lot of trends leading to 1930s chaos....people living out of their cars....kids moving back home into dad's house....banks in freefall.

7.   All these 'Czar' titles given out originally by President Obama?  

Well....it's just curious.  These were paying jobs within the Obama administration that had ZERO authority.  You made appearances....gave speeches....sipped coffee with President Obama  at least once a week, and constantly appeared on TV with some 'brand' message.

So here was VP Harris given a border-Czar project.  Biden talked about this probably a dozen times.  Harris?  She just looked around with a dazed view of the mess.  

Someone should just admit....if you got some 'Czar' title by the President....you probably aren't going too far in life. 

My Odds on Kam

 Selling the Kam 'brand' for the Presidency is difficult and I offer four problems:

1.  First, there's this behavior that you see almost daily....like she's lit up on some Cannabis or some panic attack medication.  Yeah, the funny laugh and the speech pattern.

2.  Then you have the fact that as VP....she had to notice Joe Biden was in some mental decline, and did nothing.

3.  Her resume?  In SF...she has some reputation as a tough DA....putting a fair number of black guys away for drugs.  The six years as state AG?  If you ask most California folks....they can't remember anything about the era.

4.  Finally, this Willie Brown chatter that comes up....on how she elevated herself into the city DA job in 2003.  It reads like a Hollywood script.  

So, I'll just say it....when Biden selected her in 2020....I think Obama was standing there and shaking his head.  I don't think Obama will say anything much in approval of her abilities.

If they move to early-convene a digital meeting to appoint her?  Well....why conduct a Convention in Chicago?  I'd cancel that...it has no purpose.

Pretty funny how this whole thing has unfolded.

My Crazy Lady Story

 For 3.5 years,  I worked and lived in Arlington, VA.  I lived in an apartment complex....about 2 miles from the Pentagon.  If you drew a half-mile circle....there were four 'large' apartment buildings near my building.

One of these buildings had a coffee shop-bar operation. 

One day....the local cops got called....to untangle a mess.

So....it took a number of hours and here is the basic story.

One day (around the end of 2010)....some gal  (in her 30s) moved into this apartment  building with the coffee shop.  She got to know a number of folks,  and she projected herself as a member of the CIA. 

Yeah, I know....usually, CIA people don't openly chit-chat about themselves and state their profession.

Weeks and months went by, and some younger guy (late 20s) eagerly bought into her story.  Toward the end of 2011....she had convinced this younger guy that she could hire him on as an assistant.  But there was a catch.....he needed a clearance, and he would be going 'off' with her on a secret mission to the Middle East.

For a number of reasons....I seem to believe that the guy was having physical relations with this secret-agent gal.  But lets not dwell on the lusty stuff.

He filled out the security paperwork and gave her the package.

Right before Christmas....he gave notice to his present gov't job.....and that his secret-agent gal was taking him on a mission.  

This was right before Christmas, and the guy was going to visit his parents (with the secret-agent gal), and announce all this stuff.

Well....his parents didn't really believe much of anything.  Yeah....imagine that.

So they called the real CIA, and eventually.....told 'junior'....this is all BS.

'Junior' calls the Virginia police and that's when they step in to figure out the mess.

My apartment building manager talked around with the cops.....what they said in the end....it seems like the secret-agent gal was paranoid schizophrenic.  She had well-to-do parents....who set her up in this apartment and paid her monthly bills.

The guy?  The story goes that he went back to his old job.  

No one said much of jail for the crazy gal....or even some mental eval.

In this brief conversation with the building manager....I offered the opinion that there were probably dozens like this secret-agent gal in the DC region.  He indicated that the police figured they handled at least one or two of these per year....with most people not wanting to admit they fell for a pretty crazy story.

(I probably have 400 stories like this from my 3.5 years of DC life)

Observations

 1.  I'm retired....so I have free time.  This week, I ended up watching about three hours of this Secret Service Chief 'interrogation' by the House members.

It was a total waste of time.

At some point, you could tell that even the Democratic members were peeved.  

My general impression (having spent around 30 years around military organizations)....this 'chief' was mostly unqualified for the job, and had no desire to at least tell a 12-line story over the shooting of Trump.

2.  Just odd....the key person that VP Harris needs to support her candidacy.....is Barak Obama.  So far, he hasn't said much of anything.

3.   Apple-TV has started cutting it's budget and production schedule....saying there just aren't enough people watching the shows they make.

Probably the first signal of streaming TV decreases.  My bet?  Within 2 years....there will just be three services left.

Just Interesting

 Someone sat down and added up all the people who worked in the VP Harris office over the past 3.5 years.  They came to a number.  What they say is that 92-percent have COME and GONE....meaning they aren't there anymore.

They managed to track down a couple and asked point-blank....what triggered them to leave?

Response?  It typically went to the idea that  as a employee....they were trying to prepare their 'boss' for events, and the 'boss' didn't seem to be interested in preparing or doing the 'homework'.

In my Air Force years, I worked in a office where we had a Captain who just didn't want to waste time on preparation or trying to get ahead.  I questioned how he ever got into college or got a degree.  About a year into the experience....some Major asked me over the issues of the Captain (me being a NCO)....I responded that the guy needed to move on (meaning the Air Force dismissing him).  Four months passed, and the Captain had exit papers.  

It's a bad sign  for Harris.  Running for President and people  already knowing your management skills are this dismissal.  If she were to win in November.....she'd likely call up people for advice on picking cabinet members, and shocked to find out that of every seven people she offers a job to.....five of them just laugh and turn the job offer down.

So as we advance toward the Democratic Convention....I expect folks to bring up this problem,  and she's unable to get the nomination. 

Was Biden aware of this problem...going back to 2020?  I'm not sure. 

Just another funny story to add to 2024?  Well....yeah.  

Finally, what is interesting here.....8-percent of folks she hired in 2020.....are still around.  It would make me ask if they are working in Harris's best interest, or the interest of some lobby-group.

Just Stuff You Notice

 1.  I suspect if you walked the head of the FBI and Homeland Security into a room....asking how many rifles were fired on that Saturday afternoon at Trump's rally....neither want to admit a minimum of three, and possibly four.  

This question won't be ended....for at least six weeks.  The first shooter?  Dead.  The Secret Service Sniper?  The last shot.  The first shot or two?  It'll be labeled Mister Mystery-man (probably from the water tower).

Oh, and I'll go ahead and take a guess....mystery shooter?  He's a gov't figure, and he'll be found dead in some parking garage in Silver Springs, Maryland this weekend.

2.   Don't act shocked if the thrill factor for VP Harris drops like a rock over the next four weeks.

3.  If you asked on the odds of a second attempt on Trump?  I'd say yeah....it'll fail as well, and there might even be a third attempt...failing as well.

How many Oswalds are prepared for this theater show?  Wouldn't shock me if there were forty Oswalds across the nation....mentally prepared for the 'purpose'.

And I'll just say it....as each fails....Trump gains another two or three basis points in polls.

4.  What I think happened to Biden in Vegas for this medical emergency?

I suspect the Covid test was positive, and they (his own doctors) gave him some 'special' stuff, which was on top of his already heavily prepared medication, and he had some type of serious reaction.  Just guess....his blood pressure dropped big-time and they got real worried.

5.  Casings found at the rooftop?  Eight.  Secret Service sniper casings?  One.  PA patrol guy-sniper?  One casing.  So we can account for 10 shots now.  Recordings?  They suggest 11 shots fired. 

6.  Recording of communications of the Secret Service that day?  ZERO.  I found that interesting....so much technology available, and on that day....ZERO.

How I View The End Of The Joe-Show

 1.  I suspect there is a massive amount of hostility/anger brewing within Biden....over how various 'friends' turned against him in the past couple of months, to push him out.  I don't think you will see much of him here over the next three months.  He will make a brief showing at the Convention, then avoid public appearances.  

2.  Hunter?  Well....the profit years are ended. 

3.  Kam....as a supported candidate?  I think you will get four weeks of her testing the waters, and find that very few are that happy.  By the start-up of the Convention....she fails on the first ballot, and we get four hours of tense chatter....ending up with either Whitmer or Newsom as the pick.

I'll also say....I think the exit strategy that President Obama gave Joe Biden....was that he was not to give Kam his 'nod'.  I think Joe looked at the BS and said....you know what....let me screw up your Convention strategy.  

4.  The Biden  period until January?  It will be very unremarkable and you might discover the news folks (particularly MSNBC and CNN) avoiding mention of him or what he did during the day.

5.  Finally, in a couple of states, I think RFK Jr picks up steam.  This will be part  of the reason why Kam is dumped at the Convention.  

My 3 Predictions Over The Trump Shooting

 1.  Somehow....the FBI will come to admit that a state-trooper for PA....got off 3 or 4 shots at the sniper, and no one from the Secret Service knew the placement of the state-trooper sniper or that he fired.  They will try to say this PA state-trooper was another 200 yards behind the shooter.  

2.  The Secret Service will admit that they had a team there of mostly replacement personnel who had never trained with actual Secret Service.   Why....will never be really admitted upon.  

3.  Whoever selected this site (within Trump's team)....was an idiot, and this selection failed various logical requirements.   

Then the whole report will be folded up and filed.  Nothing will come from this whole effort (at least in 2024).

If you expect a Oswald-type conspiracy?  It's probably there, but you won't reach that level until early 2025.  

How The RNC Ended

 After Trump ended his speech....the music started up.

If you aren't into opera....you were sitting there and shaking your head.  The choice of music?  Nessun Dorma.  It's a opera-piece.

Where you  heard it before?  At the end of the movie....'Sum of All Fears'.  

2002 movie....where the world is in chaos, and the President has been targeted....along with the head of Russia.

In the 2nd half of the movie, you figure out that various Russians and Americans have conspired to take down both governments.   Our American-made James Bond (Jack Ryan, played by Ben Affleck) has figured out all the bad guys, and saved the day.

But in the final two minutes.....Nessum Dorma comes on, and every bad guy has been hunted down and terminated....quietly.

So Trump stood on the stage and allowed the 'bad guys' to have a warning about what is to happen later.  He didn't say nothing....he didn't blame any group....he didn't say what suffering they might get.  

Sum of All Fears?  I've probably watched it ten times.  It's one of those movies that sticks to you....making you skeptical of good and bad intentions.  

If I were among the people who crapped upon a number of folks for the past eight years....I might start to get motivated....to quietly disappear (into Costa Rica or Belize).  

Just odd....the way that this message was sent...via Nessum Dorma. 

Five Observations

 1. I sat and watched a financial podcast this AM.....talking over his experience in trying to get cash yesterday (with the IT failure), and failing.

So he got onto the subject of FDIC, and the long-winded discussion of expected bank failure (either at the end of 2024 or into the spring of 2025).  He says....with some facts....FDIC is crapped-out, and will be unable to sustain this approaching failure.

What he expects?  About 3 or 4 days into this national bank-failure trend....Congress will pass a measure to enable FDIC to  'tax' US banking institutions...allowing them to 'grab' your savings/checking funds to a certain percentage....maybe 5-percent....maybe 10-percent.....which would float over into FDIC....to keep banks solvent.

I pondered over this.  If I had $3,000 total in my checking/savings....I probably wouldn't grumble much.  If I had $150,000....yeah, I would not appreciate losing $15,000 of my money.  If I had half-a-million....losing $50,000 would really peeve me.

He has a point....in that FDIC was never designed to handle massive bank failure.   I suspect he also has a point in that taking wealth who can afford it....is the only way to save these banks.  But the closer we get to this day, and it becomes apparent.....wouldn't half of society rush up to their bank and ask for $100,000 in cash....to hide in some basement or barn or garage?

Crazy times.

2.  Exit deal for Biden?  Based on chatter....he's peeved about all the talk and doesn't want to exit.

Governor Whitmer of Michigan....now leading in some polls as the replacement?  

3.  Odd statistic.....more men paying off their college loans....than women, based on the fact that more men took engineering degrees.

4.  Polling done after the assassination attempt.....80-percent of people say the country was 'out-of-control'.   

5.  Some polling in NY state says it's flip-possible to Trump now.  It would shock  a lot of  Democrats.

Five Observations

 1.  This dead 20 year old shooter....was an American-made James Bond.  With zero bomb or special forces experience....he was somehow able to build a bomb with a remote detonator.  Then he sneak across a field with a rifle and 12-foot ladder (past Secret Service), then gained access to a rooftop across from the president and shoot him without extra help.

2.  If some idiot made a slogan up that said 'Make McDonalds Great Again'.....half the nation would be focused on destroying McDonalds.  The sad truth is that McDonalds from 20 years ago....was better than today.

3.  Imagine you've been out all day....tired....hopping to impress your girlfriend with a Mexican dinner.....then in the middle of this....President Biden shows up and shakes hands with both of you.  Then three hours later....on the radio....you hear that Biden tested positive for Covid.

4.  Some polling group did a weird poll....asking Democrats....do you believe  the assassination attempt was faked-up?  Almost one-third said 'Yes'.

5.  Bank of America did a survey.....Gen-Z 'kids'....around 50-percent of them....get some type of financial compensation from the family.   Wouldn't surprise me.....even at age 40....they probably will still get some type of compensation.

My Larry Story

 Back around 2007 to 2010...I worked in a (just at the secret level) vault....as a contractor.  My office had 4 desks, but there were just two of us there.  One day....my military 'boss' came up and said 'such-and-such' organization (in a top secret vault) had a new contractor to arrive but his clearance wasn't ready yet.  He asked if we'd house 'Larry'.  I said sure.

The next day....'Larry' arrived.  He had retired out of the Army (20 years) and been hired as a contractor.  

I got 'Larry' set up....desk, phone, computer account.

For about a week...'Larry' would show up at 7:30 AM and work till around 4 PM....then quietly exit.  

The 2nd week...'Larry' would arrive at 8 AM, and exit around 2 PM.

The 3rd week....'Larry' would  arrive at 8 AM and leave for the German cantina for a beer or two for lunch....but never come back (period).

The 4th week, 'Larry' would show up around 9 AM...stay for an hour and leave for home.

My co-worker and I discussed this each morning....especially the whole 2nd and 3rd month....where he never showed up.

Around the end of the 6th month....this organization that had been paying 'Larry' (he probably cleared $8k a month)...suddenly woke and realized that they had a guy to fill a billet and they just never had done the clearance paperwork.

So they called over to the company office, and they called me....where is 'Larry', and I responded he's probably at his cellphone.  

The next day....'Larry' went back to work....real work.

The bitter side of this story?  Well...'Larry had developed alcohol problems over six months of hanging out daily at the German cantina on base.  He'd leave the real job around noon....drink two beers and some some German schnapps.  He'd show back at real work after 90 minutes...smelling of booze.

After about two months of warning him....the company wrote up papers...firing 'Larry'.  

It's  hard to know who to blame....either Larry, the company, or the Air Force....for just allowing him to goof off. 

Flag Story

 Based on 1,000-odd flag ceremonies I've attended while in the Air Force and working at the Pentagon....this flag episode at Trump's  speech on Saturday came to be an odd thing.

In the hour prior to him arriving....wind picked up and flipped the flag into an unusual pattern....some say it was like an angel spreading it's wings.

To be honest, in all the flag episodes I've ever seen.....it just never turns up....flipped like this....in the shape of a bird's wings or angel.

A sign?  There's probably been about a dozen times when I've seen something occur or develop....like a sign, and I've typically stood there for a minute....thinking.  Yeah....in most cases....I've eventually decided something ain't right and just walked away. 

In this case?  Maybe it is just the wind.  But things like this typically don't happen. 

A Little Suspicious Story

 For those who aren't into the finance world....a 'short' is where you analyze data....going  into a special market, and you 'bet' that X-price (say $40) for a stock will be dropping in a period of time (there are no limits).  So you might create a 'short'  where the $40 stock in one month will drop to $37.  Or you might be favoring a high-risk situation and saying the $40 stock in two weeks will drop to $17.  

Yeah, it's a legalized betting....on commerce.

Do regular investors do 'shorts'?  NO.  

Most people I know....who do 'shorts'....will tell you they spend 20 hours a week analyzing data...as a minimum.  They might only do two or three 'shorts' a year, and they will always say there is maximum risk and minimal risk behind this stuff.

So here's this little odd story.  A investment company called 'Austin Private Wealth' who came up in early July, and put around $7-million down on a 'short' with $DJT (Trump's social media stock)....that it would drop...with a end date of 15 July (last  Monday).   

Twelve-million share involved.

On risk?  Well....7-million is an awful lot.

Who is connected to Austin Private Wealth?  Blackstone, Vanguard, the Bush family and the Baker family.  

What the company says?  Clerical error.....they just accidentally did the 'shorts'.

7-million lost?  More or less.   Trump didn't pass on....stock on Friday was around $31 a share....Monday, it pumped UP to $40 a share.  Today, it's near $36.

So, what happened?  Unknown.

I'd rather not believe that some conspiracy unfolded, and some CIA guys knew a operation would occur on Saturday.   

Some time-machine situation?  Well...one would laugh over the idea, but you have to wonder about this.

Bag Story

 I  tried to make sense out of this.  In LA....restaurants were told by the city council....you can't hand out food in a 'free' paper bag.  You have to charge 10-cents for the bag.

Trying to get around this by asking for a plastic bag....same rule.

The question is....would you go and pay 10-cents?

Would you go and collect bags, and just carry one around on your body.....for occasions like this?

Would you just say 'screw-it', and put the burgers in your pocket?  

At the pace of things....I would imagine in five years....if you visited a burger-shop....and need to do a 'number-two' in the toilet....there's probably a 10-cent charge for the toilet paper required for the occasion.

Slopped-Roof People Versus Flat-Roof People

 Someone today asked the Secret Service Director....why there wasn't a S/S agent or somebody on top of the roof of the shooters building in the Trump episode. Her answer?  It was a sloped-roof building and they were fearful of the safety factor.

I paused at this point....being a rural guy from Alabama.  I'm just not much for sloped-roofs.  But as long as you are talking about a 10 to 15 foot 'fall-situation'....I can handle slopped-roofs.

Secret Service guys?  I'm not sure about.  If you asked me....I'd say 90-percent would say 'no' to walking on a slopped-roof.

So I'm interested....is there a limit to Secret Service folks....say 10 foot to 40 foot?  

Should they have told this young shooter that the roof was too dangerous to shoot off of,  or put signs up....no climbing on the roof?

Is this going to get the Director fired...talking over the limits of the Secret Service?

Five Observations

 1.  I think most big-donors to the Democratic Party will re-evaluate things and  start cutting donations...period.  It doesn't matter if Joe is running, or Kam, or Governor Newsom.

They will simply say the election is now totally up-side-down.  Aliens could arrive and voice approval for Joe Biden, and I doubt if it change things.

2.  The 2028 Democratic candidate?  You should start expecting this hype to start up.

3.  This shooter, with a job at some old-folks home....no social media, and no real motivation?  No one is going to buy that.  Maybe it worked in 1968 with Sirhan-Sirhan....but it won't work today.

4.  You looked at gold prices today? $2,447.

5.   Still just a lot of disbelief....shooting....idiot allowed onto the roof....FBI/SS incompetence questioned now......election totally flipped.  

Ten Observations Over The Assassination Attempt On Trump

 1. Every inch of a 1,000 ft circle around a Secret Service 'protected' person should under the control of the Secret Service.  So to allow a dimwit to crawl up on a roof within 300-odd ft?  Either they (the S/S) are absolutely incompetent or it was planned this way.

I don't buy into the idea that it just happened. 

2.  By the grace of God....with Trump stepping left and right on his balance and using a good 2-foot of distance....is the only reason he's alive today.

3.  This loser-shooter?  Gamer?  Yep.  

I suspect as they check his social media.....he had several 'friends' who were likely Antifa-minded and severely anti-Trump.  

His medication?  Eventually.....someone is going to review prescriptions for the past dozen years and find two or three medications that might have influenced stupid behavior.

At some point, the S/S and the FBI will argue over this matter....that Antifa is a serious threat to the safety of the nation, period.  You can take a guess over what position the FBI will  take.

4.  This director of the S/S will be dragged in front of a Senate committee this week. Her background and failures will be discussed.

My humble  view is that she will survive the week but hand in her resignation....to be dated the week after the election.  

You might as well figure that another five to ten 'top-managers' within the S/S will be gone by the end of 2024.

5.  RFK Jr to finally get his protection?  Yeah, that will be the big deal of the week.  

6.  All this incitement behavior by news and social media?  It's going to be noticed now, and the audience is going to turn and get fairly angry over this.

You could see gradual build-ups every year....from 2004 to today.  

7.   Resetting the election?  Well...there's an entirely different view of things at this point, and I would suggest that Biden lost his position.  Even flipping to Newsom...probably won't help much.

8.  Going into Milwaukee this week, with planned protests and Antifa-action?  No one from the S/S or FBI is going to goof off.  So if you were really stupid....you will be detained, held, and charged-up.  

Just a wild guess....a thousand people minimum will test the system, and find that security ramped up.

9.  This whole thing having a Sirhan-Sirhan/Oswald resemblance?  Well....not greatly....but him having a AZ-platted van, pipe-bombs....just begs questions. 

10.  Finally, just an odd feeling....for 99-percent of folks  who've been shot at....wounded or grazed....when they get up, they are in a weakened or stressed out state of mind.

Trump gets up.....S/S people all around...trying to lug him off the stage, and he's got his fists raised....saying 'fight, fight'.  

His years with the wrestling folks? It's paying off at this moment. ONLY one-percent of people could react this way.  

Yeah, About That Guest

 So I read through a social media comment yesterday and it's been on my mind.

This guy (I assume he's 40) is married, and has 3 kids.  One of the kids is college age...the others are like 10 and 13.  Let's call him 'Bob'.

Marty (his college kid son) has come home for the summer period and brought his girlfriend...who apparently can't go to her home because of parent problems.  

'Bob' (the dad) is approached by the son a day or two into the stay.  Bob has no problem with the girlfriend staying....even sleeping in the same bed as Marty.  

But Marty has come to speak to mom and dad.

The girlfriend (we're name her Lyra)....has 3 problems.

First, Lyra is a vegan and she wants to observe her normal diet, and while visiting....she wants them (Bob and his wife....with the two other kids) to also try to practice this diet.

Second, Lyra had a home-life that was difficult...because both her parents were heavy drinkers.  Apparently Bob enjoys a beer or two after work.  So Lyra says either he drinks in private (I guess the garage) or out of view of her.

Third, Bob is a hunter and has a few wall trophies.  They don't see what type....just that Lyra wants them taken down while visiting.

The son's chat with dad doesn't go well.

I pondered over this meeting and Lyra.

I'm retired Air Force and probably had over two dozen people I worked with in my life....who had this type of event occur.  One mother-in-law story involved a guy I worked with....who smoked 1.5 packs of smokes a day, and preferred to smoke inside the house....which my co-work had an ironclad rule....if you smoke, you do on the patio.

I had another co-worker who had a out-of-work cousin come to visit....who objected to any form of cursing in the house (both my co-worker and her husband were the type to utter profanity at least ten times an hour each).  

Me?  I'm a nice guy about guests....I'm willing to offer up premium coffee, premium water, and premium beer. As long as there is an established arrival date and establish leave date....I'm pretty flexible.  If you need to do some prayers or get a few minutes of personal time in the toilet....fine.  I'm even willing to spend extra to buy the 5-star toilet paper.

Asking me to accept vegan stuff?  No....it just ain't going to happen.  The beer thing?  I might be willing to drink a beer on the patio.

My real problem is that once you find that I might bend on a request or two....will you be coming back tomorrow to ask for more things?  

I felt sorry for Bob and the wife, and even the two younger kids.  The son with the vegan girlfriend?  I'm pretty sure this relationship is doomed.....although I wouldn't be that blunt with the son over this.

Rumor BS On Trump Agenda-25

 1.  Trump will apparently make it illegal to shift from 2nd gear to 3rd gear....saying you can only shift to 4th gear.  

2.  Trump will force Jeep to reduce metal content in the vehicle by 40-percent...thus eliminating safety items and making it affordable once again at $25,000.  Included in the new order....deletion of the horn, and light-signals (meaning you go back to using your arm to indicate turning).  

3.  Trump intends to revitalize M-TV and bring energy back to the lame network.

4.  Trump intends to lower educational standards....so you can be finished with high-school by the 9th grade.

5.  Trump will force the NFL to add a 12th player onto the field....to improve employment in America.

6.  Trump intends to bring Stormy to a cabinet-level position.

7.  Trump will institute a $11 tax on all banjos sold in America.

8.  Trump will release the seven aliens (non-humans), and make them US citizens.

9.  Trump intends to order NBC to bring back ALF.

10.  Trump will deport all non-Americans back to their home-country....if they say the US is a sh**-hole.  

Q-and-A

 1.  Is Biden finished?

First, campaign money has dropped dramatically in the past two weeks.  At the rate of 'burn'....I'd say he has about 30 days of money before it's a serious issue.  What you will see by the end of next week.....a couple of key campaign folks will exit.   

The chief thing you should reflect upon....does he just exit the race, or go full-throttle....exiting the Presidency as well....admitting dementia is a full-time problem.

2.  Selling VP Harris as a easy deal to accept?

Well....you start an interview and she starts giggling and saying BS stuff....hurts the image.  

3.  All this effort needed to prevent non-citizens from voting?

Well....if you explain the idea that a Texas-state vote situation should only involve US citizens living in Texas....you would think that 100-percent of people would agree, and that's simply not the case.  I would imagine it's near 30-percent of people who believe anyone...even a Russian guy who arrived last week....should be able to vote.  

The problem here....in a black community, this issue is going to turn a lot of people hostile....thinking that non-citizens have status.

4.  Bank of America study done.....half of Gen-Z 'kids' are requiring some type of financial assistance from the parents to 'survive'?

Well....yeah, they said this.  They weren't that clear about how much, or what 'survive' really meant.

Course, if the kid was an idiot (with a degree) and bought a $75,000 car with a $1,200 monthly car-loan....yeah, I could see this.

All of this dragging the parents to financial problems later as well?  Yep, that's what I would figure.

5.  CNN in the past month getting weird?

Well...from the five or six occasions that I've watched them...they went to a absolute neutral view on politics.  Rather shocking, I will admit.

Note, this week....CNN said they are letting another 3-percent of employees go....can't afford them.

Seven Things

 1.  Either you have rights, or you have permissions.  Just remember.....they aren't the same thing.

2.  If there is no price to be paid for making bad decisions....there's no incentive to make good decisions. 

3.  If you asked people back in the 1980s if they had a rock-hard opinion on something....it probably never went above a dozen things you felt this way on.  Today?  You probably have an rock-hard opinion on 300 things.

4.  If you felt OK on dropping your vote in a envelop at a unattended box-situation....would it matter if the unattended box was next to a Burger King or topless bar?  And if that bothers you....why would you say it's fine in some parking lot next to a post office?

5. I had the term  'cattywampus' come up yesterday.

So this was a invented word in the early 1800s of the US....mostly in  the south, and it meant something that wasn't right.  So you could refer to the way something was built, or a person acting stupid, or a legal process that was meant to fail.

6.  If you asked how many people can handle social media (like FB, or Twitter)....I'd say fewer than two-thirds have the maturity-level for social media.

7.   Just for the record.....9th century Chinese monks are the ones who accidentally discovered gunpowder.

Humble Observations

 1.  I think the insider group to the White House (not Joe Biden's team) felt that they'd get Joe up to a point.....have him dump Harris as VP, and somehow emerge into the election....win, and have Joe retired in spring of 2025, with their pick as the new President.

Plan A has failed, and we are in some weird run.....where five or six groups are trying to plan the replace-Joe game....each with an agenda.

2.  Just a suspicion....I think within 2 weeks.....campaign money flowing  into Joe's effort will halt completely.  That will be the master-off-switch to halt the campaign.

3.  Man, bird-flu is talked about almost hourly now on the news.

4.  I have a suspicion that some polling group tested Newsom versus Trump and discovered that Newsom can't win.

Same polling group tested probably five others.....finding they were in the same mess.

5.  Remember that US military aid pier in Gaza?   You know....the one costing $230 million?  Well...it's set to be 'permanently dismantled', after 21 days of actual use.  Total failure.

6. Just crazy....there's probably over 20-million Americans who are pro-dementia now, and want Senators, Congressmen, Governors and Presidents to have dementia.

Ten Predictions

 1.  From now until mid-August....Joe Biden's campaign-fund gathering will be mostly flat, and this will be the true test for the Convention (where he will be dumped). Anyone's guess who is brought in (I'm still thinking Jamie Dimon is possible).

2  I will predict by late July....at least three key Biden-campaign figures quit.

3.  Hamas-Israel 'war' if Trump wins?  I'll predict that Hamas goes into a crisis stage....asking for someone to lead them to a end-point .

4.  At least one state by the end of 2025, will have a law on the books to prevent private citizens from flying a US flag on their porch....to prevent people from getting 'triggered'.

5.  Polling at the end of 2025 will indicate that one American in one-hundred is consumed about wearing masks, and  spends at least $500 a year on their 'fetish'.

6.  Some university study will come out in 2025 to reveal, after a 12-hour flight....you officially need seven days to recover from jet-lag.  

7.  The most stupid thing that Putin could achieve in his 'war'.....is to kill off 1-million young/middle-age men, and chase 2-million men out of the country permanently.  The Russian landscape in 30 years?  Probably a population drop of 30-percent.  

8.  You will come to realize whatever bank you do business with in 2025....virtually everything you do has a 'fee' attached, and they will offer you a 'all-in-one' fee of $300....which half of us probably will be forced to take.

9.  Charles Barkley runs for Alabama governor in 2026, and wins.

10.  TikTok users advance to a new trend.....throwing lawn-darts at each other, and wounding a hundred juveniles a week with the 'game'.

The Thing About Jet-Lag

 My first ever airline trip was August of 1977....to boot-camp  in Texas. If I had jet-lag (at age 18).the Air Force didn't care.  They woke me up at 5:30 AM the next morning and the adventure started.

Throughout my 20s and 30s....I never noticed any issues with jet-lag.  Approaching forty....these travel  days where I got up at 4 AM....showing up at the airport at 8 AM, and flew a 9-hour flight (back into the US)....that's where I started to notice 'burn-out'.

So this week when Joe Biden hyped-up jet-lag....yeah, he might have a point, but if you said that the guy had seven-plus days to chill out and recover?  Well....that's mostly all BS.

All this BS does....is make reporters ask how the President will recover after any flight activity.  Then they will eventually get  to the question....are you too old for all this travel required in the job? 

Six Q-and-A

 1.  Are there black-jobs? 

Yes, of course.  Same as there being dumb-ass jobs....jobs just for women....jobs for 5th-grade graduates, and cooking jobs for non-cooks.

2.  Is there really any problem with having Harris as President?

Nope.  In fact, I think CNN and most journalists would just stop covering the White House after two weeks, and we'd all be better off with less coverage.

3.  Any truth to the matter that some news folks are attempting a poll with only Dementia folks, to see if Joe Biden is their pick?

No.

4.  Did 'they' (the whole Democratic Party elite) miscalculate with Donald Trump?

Well....I think up until 2016....they were used to stupid lawyer types running for office for the most part.  'Speech-givers' and 'mystical-Jesus-types'....who oozed charisma in one-gallon buckets.

Along comes Trump who understands the act of persuasion, a guy who actually reads the Wall Street Journal, and can spend an entire hour talking about business, commerce, and the economy.   When the North American Free-Trade Agreement was built up and set loose upon the US economy like some 'demon'....he understood the impact, and the massive anger that infected the nation.  

The 'kids' from the Republican and Democratic Parties?  They were standing there and unable to grasp how well Trump was accepted, or the amount  of stamina that he had for  the 'game'.  

At this point? There's just not many 'tricks' left in the bag, and for some reason....Biden isn't among the 'tricks'.

5.  Some fed 'push' to create a massive 'free' hot-spot WI-FI access across the nation?

I sat and read the idea....would be gifted out to communities  that you'd consider 3rd-world-like or bottom of the economic class.   How you'd determine a barrier to only help the poorest of the poor?  Unknown.

6.  If Joe Biden has dementia.....can he legally take classified with him as he leaves office?

I've been contemplating this question for a year now.  Usually, all Presidents take classified with them as they retire and it's for their 'records'.  If he is mentally unfit....who actually is going to read the material?