Wednesday, 24 January 2024

How Does Joe Biden Say He's Exiting?

 Over the past week or two....I've pondered over this scenario developing where Joe arrives at the Democratic Convention (19 August), and declare either on day 1 or day 2.....he's out...allowing for Michelle Obama (likely to be slated for the big evening speech on day 1) to catapult herself into the fill-the-gap position?

You see....if he says bad health....well, then you'd have to ask....why are you still at the White House?  Shouldn't you be allowing VP Harris to take charge?

Could he say he's got a bad heart?  No....VP Harris would have to take charge.

Could he say he's been weak for the past 6 months?  No...VP Harris would have to take charge.

Would he admit he's got lousy numbers and can't win?  That's not Joe Biden's style.

I am at a loss on how....day 2 of the convention....how he walks in and says 'I'm out'.

The only thing you can count on....Michelle Obama is giving a major prime-time speech on day one (ever before a schedule even comes out), and it'll be crafted by some former speech-writer for President Obama.

Selling People On Michelle Obama As Presidential?

 For the past week or two....I've tried to contemplate the Presidential election of Trump versus Michelle Obama.  I've come to four observations.

1.  It's an enormous amount of burden shifted to the news media....more than 2016's effort with Hillary Clinton....more than 2020's effort with Joe Biden, and even more than what was generated in 2008's election with Barak Obama.

CNN running 12 hours a day of hype for Michelle Obama?  It's hard to imagine that you'd find enough commercial backers to make this hype possible.

2.  This ending up with RFK Jr getting one out of every three Democratic votes?  I'd go out and say in several states (NY for example)....it might be possible to get 50-percent of the Democratic votes.

I don't think RFK Jr will run in all fifty states....but if he just runs in half of them....it'll dissolve any chance of Michelle Obama of winning.

3.  On debating between the three?  No....I don't think Michelle Obama will agree to a single debate.  Trump and RFK Jr probably will debate, and that will shift votes around.

4.  I've seen the Oprah-like friendly interviews that Michelle Obama has done and she handled those in a positive way.  Going to the level of blunt talk that either Joe Biden or Barak Obama have given?  I've yet to see a single occasion of that type of talk.

It's like bringing up one of Hillary Clinton's top three problems....talking tough while speaking.  She could not really deliver at the level required.

All of this effort now to open a 'path' for Joe Biden to exit,  and this is the great replacement?  I don't really buy into it.