What the Trump team says....once in office....all trans-folks in the military....will be released. Number? Well...the services suggest (maybe with Guard, Reserve included)....it's up around 15,000.
How I expect this to go?
There's likely an executive order now written and waiting....to be issued to the Pentagon to implement. I would imagine 20-odd lawyers of the Pentagon to be in a resist-mode, and likely fired by the end of the 2nd day.
This group will hire up lawyers and fight their dismissal.
In the week that passes...another group carries out the order, and commanders get a 3-page directive, on how this will work.
The individuals....one-by-one....will be brought in and given paperwork...for a dismissal to be complete within 30 days. Each will hire a lawyer and get some type of delay by a federal judge.
Within each case....the man-hours by March will be adding up. The trans-folks will have been put on a non-deploy list and will be of no use to the unit.
Along about May, it'll be obvious within the services....that about 50-percent of people support the dismissal and regard the trans-players as not part of the team. This friction will trigger massive stress/chaos on the trans-folks....previously thinking that everyone supported them.
By mid-summer, with legal battles still going....at least two-dozen folks will have attempted suicide.
I would also suggest more than 100 commanders (across the Marines, AF, Army and Navy) will have been purged or released because they can't enforce the executive order.
By the end of 2025....legal challenges will have stalled the exit, and made the atmosphere around the military highly toxic. Two-thirds of the military will admit in a poll that they believe the mental stress caused by the trans-community is now hurting military cohesiveness.
An assessment by early 2026 will establish that more than 3,000 officers have left the service because they could not agree with the order. Each was quickly replaced and the exit will continue on.
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