It came out a couple of days ago that the Trump-2020 team is putting funding up for real campaigning in Oregon. Some folks think it's crazy, but they admit that Trump has a tremendous amount of money in the bucket already....has very little primary action to worry about.....and he has to spend the money somewhere where there might be a chance of winning.
The 2016 situation? Hillary won with just over 1-million total votes, while Trump pulled up short with 780,000 roughly. The numbers say that 70-percent of the registered voters showed up in that race.
Odd factors? Hillary actually lost in the primary to Bernie......Bernie had 360,000 voters show up, and Hillary only had 269,000 (14-point difference).
If you went through the 36 counties in the state....the majority went for Trump. The blue counties? Mostly based around Portland, Eugene, Albany, and Salem (ALL in the NW of the state). All urbanized votes.
The truth is that Trump needs about 150,000 folks to flip their votes, or for another 5-percent of the registered voters to show up and vote this time around.
The improved employment rate? From Feb of 2016....it's gone down to around 4.3-percent (dropping by .7-percent).
Selling Joe Biden in the state? My suspicion is that Hillary maxed out and Joe can't exceed 1-million votes. Getting black males and some Latinos to flip over? That might involve around a quarter of the votes that Trump needs.
So I don't think it's impossible, and that it might be possible to flip those seven electoral votes over.
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