Laying The Simplicity of SVB's Bank Failure

 SVB was started in the early 1980s in the Silicon Valley area of California.  The key to it's growth throughout the 1990s....start-up businesses coming in and dumping their business into the 'pool'....along with management and technicians in the mix.

Around eight years ago, it controlled one-quarter of all banking in the valley area.  It eventually moved out into Hong Kong, India, China, Israel, and UK.  

Back in late 2008.....SVB got a $235 million investment deal from the US Treasury Department under the Troubled Asset Relief Program....to tide them over the banking industry collapse.

So they had a lot of loan deals going, and I would imagine the Covid era presented problems for some people to pay back the money.

Along the way....they attracted alot of VIPs.  Some rumors today suggest that Oprah has a substantial amount of money tied up in their business.  Another suggests that Prince Harry had some of his book profit money with them.

The interest rate changes in the past year....more weight/burden upon them.

So what is said....around 3-to-4 percent of the accounts will be covered by the FDIC $250,000 insurance.  Remainder?  Not covered.  The little guys from the local area?  They probably will get their accounts covered.  The big clients...with a million to 500 million?  I'd say they've got problems.

Will someone come up to buy the bank?  They need a review and 'settlement' on the $250,000 business.  

I would imagine court action to consume the next three years and no purchase of the bank is likely until spring/summer of 2024.  Value?  It's hard to imagine them or the audit people getting more than 10-percent of the value.  Maybe I'm wrong, but this is a pretty harsh position to be in.

So here's the question.....are there other identical banks that went the route of SVB, and are they just a month or two away from failure as well?

Oh, and to note how much debt they are in the hole presently?  15-billion dollars.  On the plus side....they hold around 90-billion dollars in fed bonds.  That money is rock-hard safe.  

The one odd factor?  A bunch of Silicon Valley start-ups had their money there, and there is a fair amount of risk you can assign to the bank and the money still existing (maybe partially.....maybe fully). 

Where Will All This Trans End?

 One day, the WWE wrestling folks will figure out a character (male wrestler) who does the fake Trans business, and then says he wants to wrestle as a Trans-woman. 

He'll mostly sip some fake steroid liquid....wear a tutu....dance around the ring, and talk a lot about woman stuff.

It'll be a joke for a month, until enough women are fake-beat, and then some second fake Trans wrestler will appear.

After six months of this.....a dozen fake Trans-women will exist.  

Then some woman will come up...fake-beat the dozen Trans-women, and the whole topic will move up to top subject on Twitter feeds.  

Then the Trans-women will show up with a fake-doctor to say they've reversed all of the stuff, and returned to manhood.

Reality will be openly discussed for weeks after that.

When You Decide To Enter A Debate, Some Advice

 1.  If you know next to nothing the topic....don't get stupid and enter the debate.

2.  Don't utter 'Hitler' or 'Nazis' at any point in the debate, unless this is about WW II in general.

3.  Don't dress in outlandish clothing or attire for the debate.

4.  Have a entry-statement without any PhD type words.  It should not be more than 8 lines to drive your original point.  

5.  Don't have a position tied to the Bible, or the Koran.

6.  If this room or auditorium is not air-conditioned.....don't wear any heavy garments.

7.  It's best to have chilled water on hand, and sip a minimum of three gulps before you even arrive on the stage.  

8.  If you are opposing a dumb-ass....it's recommended that you avoid the debate.

9.  If you want 'extra' points....about mid-way through the 'talk' of yours....move away from the podium and enter the 'sphere' of the audience.  Talk to them as if they were five feet away.

10.  If you just don't have great debate skills.....either improve upon them (before you get into serious activity) or don't debate.  I can think of a hundred politicians in DC.....who can't debate.  

Reality and Pondering

 This week, if you paid attention....the Zuckerberg of Meta (formerly Facebook) stood up and said he was going to develop a new social media platform. 

The more you examine the comment....he's basically saying the virtual reality idea of uncoupling Facebook and going to Meta....failed.  So he needs Facebook 'enhanced' or Facebook XXL to come into some reality.

Why?  Well....I think on pure numbers....Twitter is crapping all over Facebook.  Twitter has the audience hyped up....Meta or Facebook?  They've got the cat pictures and funny videos....but lost a ton of charm over the past year.

Where this goes?  There's probably some fired Twitter team folks out there....being hired up by Zuckerberg....to invent Twitter-Facebook-Meta, and ensure that it's anti-Trump, and enticing some kind of agenda.  But I would suggest that Zuckerberg is gazing at the group....thinking....I really don't want some copy....of a copy....of a copy....of something.

Why virtual reality failed?  Well...round up a hundred folks, and barely seven of them really could grasp where this was going, and they were mostly gamers.

Do we really need another social media platform?  That's the big question.  

My Five Problems With The George Floyd Episode

 1.  For the record, George Floyd was a 'regular' at the corner grocery.  On this morning of the event....he'd gone to buy a pack of cigarettes'.  You can figure the pack to cost in the $9 range.  He passes a $20-bill, and the clerk does a quick check to reveal that it's counterfeit.  Change never passes to Floyd...instead, the clerk asks for the smokes back.  Floyd refuses, and walks out the door.  The clerk then calls the police (perhaps in the presence of Floyd, but this is never really laid out). 

Oddly, to the police later....the clerk says George Floyd appeared out-of-focus....perhaps drunk.  This issue is never discussed ever again in court.   

Floyd's behavior?  He had to know the bill was a problem, but didn't care.  

2.  This all occurs around a few minutes before 8 AM. Clerk calls for the cops and they arrive at 8:08.  Where is George Floyd?  You would think that in this situation....you'd return to your vehicle, and get the hell out of sight.  Eight long minutes...99-percent of people would be a mile down the road in that period of time.

Floyd is sitting there in the vehicle....it hasn't moved in 8 minutes.  By the description that the two cops give....he's not focused or aware of anything much.  Maybe drunk....maybe on some drug?  Well....you have to wonder about this.

3.  At 8:10 AM.....two minutes into this encounter....some guy happens to pull up and have video running of the event unfolding.

Just odd....maybe it's a new trend with people....always video-taping everything they see.

4.  There's this one exchange between a policeman and Floyd.....where Floyd is described as erratic or acting weird.  From the moment that he exits the SUV....I don't think Floyd was in any control of his mental or physical being.

5.  So finally, Floyd and Chauvin meet.  They both work at the same 'club'....for several years.  They have to know each other.  You would think....in 99-percent of cases where you and a co-worker meet in a hyped-up situation....tense moments would have relaxed.  Yet you don't see that.  

This is an odd part of the story.  Chauvin could have eased Floyd's situation by a few comments....but you don't see that.  

It's an odd story to lay out.  No matter how you assemble the facts....Floyd had to be seriously unfocused and having something in his system that confused the hell out of him.  With or without the counterfeit bill or the cops arriving on the scene....he was in a uncontrolled manner, and certainly not in fit condition to drive a vehicle. 

 But going back to the $20-bill....where did it come from?  That question has never been answered. Had he just reached into his billfold....pulled out a legit $20....this whole thing would have never occurred.  

Defining Dumbfuckery

 Basically, even after high school, college and maybe even PhD studies....you've reached a stage where nothing much makes sense, and you start to respond to conversations with non-facts and BS.  

Sometime, you will apologize for the attitude, or the poor performance.  Sometimes, it'll just be an automatic reaction when someone utters 'Trump' or 'climate change'.  

Eventually, you will realize that people 'mute' you rather quickly....trying to pay less attention to your meaningful thoughts.

Occasionally, you will find like-minded people, and associate with them....having a dumbfuckery breakfast....where three or four of you are uttering BS at the same table.  You might even be lucky enough to find some like-minded person to marry and carry on a long-term dumbfuckery relationship.

The problem here is....at some point....maybe years down the line....you wake up and realize what you did.  It'll turn into a crisis period, and a lot of booze will be consumed.  

Q-and-A

 1.  Mexican president hyped up....saying hint of US military action would be a very bad thing....on the cartel-Fentanyl problem.  Where is this going?

Under Biden?  Nowhere.  Zero desire to create a border crisis.  

After 2024?  I'd say that something significant is going to occur, and the cartels will have to move further south to survive (yes, Guatemala).  

2.  This Silicon Valley Bank failure?

If you peel back the whole story.....various people could see the decline sixty to ninety days ago.  State regulators now control the bank.  Odds of survival?  Zero....but they will be put up for an auction and probably sold for 3 cents on the dollar for value.  All of this begs the question.....are they alone, or will there be a dozen banks to fail over the remaining months of 2023?

3.  State of Minnesota reported for January....14,100 new jobs were 'created'.  Yet in the same report....within the numbers....the number of Minnesota folks actually employed....went down 423.  Crapped-up report?

No....what you probably have is a group of folks who retired or just quit working....then left the state.  Don't ask the state folks about this....they'd just get all confused.  

4.  Did President Biden make a comment yesterday....suggesting Trump will end up as the 'future' President?

Yes.  He had a microphone in his hands and just chatting away loosely.    Why suggest this?  Unknown.

5.  Someone starting up a rumor of Pete Buttigieg resigning?

Well....yes.

I would say this....Pete has been on a negative trend, and if there is two more super-events to occur by the end of 2023....I think the White House will ask him to step down.  

Pete's skills are just not qualifying him for the Transportation Secretary job.  

6.  This 'rumor' of disintegration of Russia?

It's a page 6 story and simply discussed by the international folks.

So, in a nutshell....Putin has staked economic bets on what was to be a short-war, and screwed up.  

If the war was to continue through all of 2023 and 2024?  I'd put the break-up odds at better than 50-percent.  But all of this figured out by the CIA and the US help geared to bring about this ending?  I would suggest that.