Monday 1 February 2021

The 1929 Crash, Shorts, and Reality

 From the day that WW I ended, until the third week of October 1929....speculation, shorts, massive up's and downs on the open market, real estate 'games' of massive proportion, and loose regulation led to a wild period. 

History classes rarely dive into the period and the amount of speculation that was taking place.  

The billions shipped off by NY City banks to Germany to end the reparations 'mess'?  Rarely discussed. 

The speculation in September of a massive crash?  Various experts called this already in the months prior.  

Shorts-'betting' taking place?  In a massive way, yes.

Jesse Livermore?  Never heard of the guy?  He had a reputation for shorts in the period prior to the crash.  He ended up hiring around a hundred traders to conduct the shorts and arrange them in 'tidy' but hidden fashion.  The winnings in October when the crash occurred?  Roughly 100-million dollars....which would today be in the range of $1.5-billion was the winnings for Livermore.  

As much as people want to believe it was just a wild crazy single day event....the crash on 29 October 1929 was accurately figured by a fair number of people.  They shorted at the right time/rate, and the crowd left standing had to pay for the crappy investment attitude.  A fair amount of this crash.....goes back to wild speculation, shorts, and risky behavior.  

So you stand here now and view the past two weeks, with the GameStop events in full view, and start asking the same questions....do we have wild speculation, shorts in the middle and risky behavior going on?