How This Impeachment Will Go

 1.  Papers funneled into the Senate and accepted.

2.  Two to four days wasted on Senate Democrats presenting case.

3.  Trump and his entire legal staff refuse to show....saying a non-President cannot be impeached.  

4.  Around six Republicans will trash Trump left and right.

5.  Around the 7th day, they vote, and 59 is the final vote....NOT enough to win.

6.  Around this 7th day....someone happens to ask about security problems and note that approximately 100k people have gathered on the outskirts of the city....outside of the National Guard presence, and apparently intend to hinder the exit of the lawmakers in their vehicles home.  

Over the next five days, the mostly peaceful demonstration continues, and some law-makers quietly exit the DC region.....saying they won't be back for at least three weeks.  

7.  The six Republicans?  They will be primaried in the next election and lose in a massive way.  

(I should hint....I suspect one Republican will attempt to enter into the records the entire contents of the accusations against President Biden, and the Ukraine business.)

Paying Attention to the Guardsmen Chatter

 Some facts which aren't clearly grasped by the news media.

What was approved to be in DC was 21,000 National Guardsmen.

On the 14th, 7,000 from 14 states (this is straight from the Nat'l Guard HQ's itself in DC).

The rest?  I would suggest that on Inauguration Day....they probably had in the 14k range and the rest will be there by this weekend.

Some being recalled back to their states?  That has started but once federalized, they are not under the authority of the states.

The living quarters situation for the 21k?  Some chatter indicates hotel rooms are being procured.    The cost on this?  Most of the decent hotels in DC are $200-plus for a two-bed situation.  With 21k, it'd be a fair cost situation.  

The more you look at this....three central questions arise:

1.  Is there some central plan? 

2.  If a plan does exist....how many days are built into this?

3.  Does this whole plan center on impeachment occurring and the Guardsmen are there only to protect the Senators/House Members?  

The possibility that they'd react in a situation and do something really stupid?  Like firing on unarmed protesters?  That's generally what I'd worry about.  The longer this goes on....the more unpredictable the landscape becomes.

Looking more like Beirut or Baghdad than some American city?  This is part of the story that you can't really imagine.  

So to the final concern....getting to the day after impeachment and conviction of Trump.  Will the need for the Guardsmen go away?  I'm more likely to believe now that a minimum of 20k Guardsmen will be there through the middle of April, and that 5k to 8k will be on duty throughout the rest of the summer.  

If some incident occurs where 40-odd Americans are shot by Guardsmen....expect the 20k to be there for the rest of 2021.  It'll be a harsh year to accept.  

'Yesterday's Man'

 It's a phrase that got picked up as a title for a book on Joe Biden....written by Branko Marcetic.  What it infers.....a washed-up Hollywood type or political-type who has wrapped up his career but stayed one movie or one term too long, and can't get the 'magic' going for this last part of his career.

FDR became a yesterday's man....staying past a third term, and even a fourth term.  

Nixon....running in 1968, after the VP years under Eisenhower....was a yesterday's man.

Teddy Roosevelt eventually became a yesterday's man....after leaving office in 1912.  

It's an interesting phrase and likely to be repeated.  

Conspiracy Theories: 'Stab-in-the-Back' Story

 Part of my series on conspiracies.

The 'Stab-in-the-Back' conspiracy starts out in 1919 in Germany/Austria, and centers on blame for losing the war.

The chief blame?  Jews.

Part of this blame goes to the Kaiser being 'kicked-out' of Germany.

When 1933 comes around....the Nazi Party has turned this Stab-in-the-Back' routine into a major message to the public.  Humiliation....lack of respect for veterans...degenerative society....with blame being dished out to the Marxist crowd, and Jews.

Any truth to the conspiracy?  Lets be honest....most everyone from the Kaiser on down to local people....all believed in the summer of 1914 that the war would last around twelve months, then end.  

When you got to summer of 1916 (two full years)....you could not escape the tendency to talk about this, whine, complain, and hype some kind of blame on someone (anyone but the Kaiser).

Public discontent by the summer of 1917?  It was obviously at epic 'highs'.  Blame was a daily process of discussion from those not in the war effort.  

So when 1933 rolled around....discounting the 'Stab-in-the-Back' conspiracy was not possible.  They believed it....even if it wasn't true. 

"Trying to Build a Better World" Syndrome

 Over the past couple of decades, it's more than obvious that a segment of America has 'fallen' and can't 'get up'.  It's like the commercial for that device you wear around your neck....hitting the 'help' button....then expecting with thirty minutes some police/ambulance savior to arrive and give you that 'thank you Jesus' feeling.

In our case, we've hit the stupid button multiple times, and found that whatever/whoever comes....is probably not going to help us, and in some cases....will make the matter worse.

A lot of people have relatives, former associates, or neighbors who've fallen as far as possible on the drug/alcohol binge, and there's no necessity to really help them.  You'd be feel better if some truck came by with two guys in white suits....to tote the 'loser' to some enclosed facility and keep them there permanently.  

Our patience in some political solution?  Pretty much gone....doesn't matter if you introduce Republican or Democratic agendas....they all end up as a half-ass solution, that costs tons of money, and rarely show anything real resolution.

Lately, I've looked around and seem to notice people who are hyped up on building a better world.  It's mostly fake energy or fraudulent passion.  Their devotion seems to lack any genuine feeling.

I'd almost like to suggest some mental treatment for these folks.....they are carrying around some kind of syndrome which hinders their view of reality.

Where all of this is going?  An increasing number of people who've given up on the system, and willing to say 'enough'.  Pouring time, money and effort into a pit with no bottom...makes little sense.  

The Odds of This $10k College Loan Credit?

 First, it's chatter only at this point. 

Second, it'd require Senate/House discussions and the earliest that this might occur....spring of 2022.

Third, my gut tells me that it won't be $10k forgiven....it'll be worked up into a $10k tax credit that you can take off in multiple years (say $3k this year, $2k next year, and $5k the third year).  So you'd probably have to pay taxes of some type, and simply take this credit.

Fourth, my gut also tells me that it'll have some limit tied into it....example: if you owe less than $20k....you probably won't see any credit at all.  

Fifth, and most importantly....for all of these idiots with $70k, $100k, or $150k in college loan debt....$10k is crap and marginally resolves your mess.  So trying to excite yourself is purely a waste of time.  Biden's effort will take 15 minutes of pain off your life, and you can go right back to work tomorrow....working on the remaining $60k.

Final word?  For all of those people who wrapped up college with zero debt, you will remember this college loan credit day with extreme negativity.  For those who got ahead in life without a college degree?  It'll be viewed for years as some act of stupidity.