I was watching a podcast last week....discussing gov't workers being laid off...housing explosion being noticed in DC-region with homes being listed for sale, and the question....what comes to the bulk of these workers?
If you were a non-DC worker....you were probably making $30k range for a GS-4, and in the GS-11 level of $60k. Manager? GS-12/13? $72k to $88k (starting out).
If you were a DC worker at GS-12/13? $94k to $116k (starting out).
Where you can find a job in that range today? Well....if the economy were booming....you could find work in places like Texas (some degree).
In the downward economy of today? About 95-percent of folks are looking at a 30-percent pay-cut minimum....maybe even 50-percent.
Can you sell that Arlington or Fairfax home for $850,000? NO. You probably will take a 30-percent cut in that 2024 value.
If you were at the tail-end of a 30-year mortgage (the final 5 years)? Well....you are screwed.
Banks in the Maryland/Virginia region...likely to collapse by the end of 2025? I'd start to wonder about that problem. Lets say you assumed ownership because of defaults....where could you market a $800,000 home of 2024 value, but find no one really interested in that value?
Job-hunting? Those in their 50s and needing another ten years to reach retirement? They probably will end up accepting $50k jobs. Some will end up in RV trailers living on the coast of North Carolina...in some early retirement scheme, and pulling 40 hours a week at some Wal-Mart to get basic health-care coverage.
Some falling apart....in suicidal thoughts? I could see that developing rather quickly.
People arguing with potential HR folks....they want a work-at-home situation and are being told zero-chance of that.
The folks who have marginal debt and lived already in a owned-home situation? They will survive and find new work...accepting a 25-percent pay-cut and proceeding on in life.
Depopulation in both Virginia and Maryland? I would suggest by 2030 (next Census)....that both lose around 10-percent of their base population. That population being upper-middle-class? Well....yeah, that will be noticed by both states in terms of taxes collected. Both will have budget problems and being drawn into the California/NY state 'trap'.
So here's my ultimate thought on this era....a whole bunch of college-educated folks will proclaim by 2035....there's just not ample work for the degree they 'earned', and a fair number end up in craftsman or industry jobs...paying back college loans and grumbling the mess they got themselves into.
