Well....this topic came up today and I spent 45 minutes reading up on this.
It used to be simple when you passed on (died).....the coroner would come over and pick up the body. He'd look at your medical records, and eventually determine the ONE and only reason for your death.
Life was simple in those days, and you'd only die from one single thing.
So, we've reached the stage today.....where coroner is now asking stupid questions, and science gets into the middle of this.....then comorbidity occurs. This means that two conditions occurred in the final stages of your life, and you died from two, or three, or even four different things happening.
It's even possible that you were mentally crazy, and consuming a vast amount of drug-laced jelly beans, and this triggered you to do something crazy (like jumping off a cliff), and you didn't just die from the impact of the ground....but also from the illegal drugs.
This comes up...because of Covid-19. You see....a lot of unhealthy folks have various conditions going on, and have a weakened immune system. So when Covid-19 comes along....it craps up the body, and when you pass.....you didn't just die of the virus, but from secondary conditions as well.
Admitting comorbidity exists? Some folks, with an agenda....hate the idea of admitting that you could die from two things....rather than one thing.
All of this, for a southerner, is a hard thing to get over. We usually had a six-paragraph story to explain how Uncle Marcel passed on, after he was stomped upon by a 1,500 pound bull in the barn. However, under this comorbidity system, we'd have to admit that Uncle Marcel had a bad leg from a Vietnam War situation, and could never run that fast....so the bull didn't just kill him....the leg slowed him down enough for the bull to accomplish his part of the act. So you'd have to tell this additional four paragraph story over the war injury as well.
Monday 31 August 2020
Saturday 29 August 2020
Ten Observations
1. Are you better off than you were four years ago?
Most would say 'no', but then talk over Covid-19 issues and the riots/looting. If these issues existed....would it even matter if you voted for Joe Biden? No, that's the humorous part of this question.
Joe's intent is for another 60 to 90 day shutdown, and repeat as often as necessary. On riots and looting, he can't readily demonstrate he has power over this situation.
2. Do you even care about the NBA season or NBA playoffs coming up?
Some might still suggest 'yes', but I suspect a majority of people simply don't care. The teams are mostly now surviving off a $2.6-billion yearly TV contract with the networks, and merchandise sold to fans.....since you can't sell seats in arenas.
So aren't the networks getting screwed with lower viewers? Yes, that's the troubling angle to this deal....they are probably selling discounted advertising time, and marginally covering their $2.6-billion obligation. Profit-wise, there's an issue brewing. But here's the rest of this story....the deal only goes to the 2024/2025 season. If the 2021 and 2022 season are crapped out....don't go and expect much on TV deal-chatter and more money in the next contract (I might go and expect the next contract to pay less than $1-billion).
3. Has the stock market recovered from the disaster of the spring period?
Shockingly enough....yes. A lot of people will admit back in March....they lost 20-percent of their portfolio and they were told by the 'experts' on CNBC that it would not be in 2020 or 2021 that their money would come back to a 'norm'. Yet, here we are....six months later, and the 20-percent lost....is now returned.
4. The feeling of getting 'lectured' when watching TV news?
There's not a single element left on any news network....where you don't feel 'lectured'. Half the time, you reach some level where you realize the hypocritical values being laid out, and the other half....you start to feel the suggestion that you ought to be a guilt trip for something (you just can't figure out what).
5. Will you miss NCAA football this fall?
Probably. But then you will discover that hunting, fishing and other recreational activities suddenly become interesting again. Along the way, you might discover that your wife and niece are interesting in hunting, and you drag them out on a six-hour adventure.
6. If you mob and assault a policeman?
Well....in some states, if you are lucky.....they could twist it enough to be a misdemeanor and get you only up to 12 months in a state jail. If they twist it the other way, into a felony....it could be three years in a state jail.
On the stupidity scale, this would be near a ten.
7. The most stupid political strategy possible?
You line up a quarter-million hooligans across the country and conduct riots/lootings daily, with video fed across social media. Then you allow the general public to view the video, and attempt to convince them if you just voted against Trump.....it'd come to an end.
This type of thinking and strategy? If you hung around real people and engaged in regular conversation, you'd find that working-class people don't buy into this type of stupidity.
8. One odd aspect of this Jacob Blake character (the black guy shot in the back by the police). Part of this argument brewing with him and the gal on the front yard (before the cops get the call).....he'd taken the woman's keys and was absolute about not handing them back to her.
He was more or less....begging to have the police involved in this scene.
9. Sarah Palin going into court against the NY Times?
Yes. And this might be curious to see how far it gets before the Times has to issue an apology and hand over a couple million.
10. What are you really being offered by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party?
Go out and simply ask a hundred regular people on the street. The only thing which most can readily say.....the one item offered is a Trumpless White House. Beyond that....they will not be able to sustain a conversation.
This is an even worse situation than 2016.
Most would say 'no', but then talk over Covid-19 issues and the riots/looting. If these issues existed....would it even matter if you voted for Joe Biden? No, that's the humorous part of this question.
Joe's intent is for another 60 to 90 day shutdown, and repeat as often as necessary. On riots and looting, he can't readily demonstrate he has power over this situation.
2. Do you even care about the NBA season or NBA playoffs coming up?
Some might still suggest 'yes', but I suspect a majority of people simply don't care. The teams are mostly now surviving off a $2.6-billion yearly TV contract with the networks, and merchandise sold to fans.....since you can't sell seats in arenas.
So aren't the networks getting screwed with lower viewers? Yes, that's the troubling angle to this deal....they are probably selling discounted advertising time, and marginally covering their $2.6-billion obligation. Profit-wise, there's an issue brewing. But here's the rest of this story....the deal only goes to the 2024/2025 season. If the 2021 and 2022 season are crapped out....don't go and expect much on TV deal-chatter and more money in the next contract (I might go and expect the next contract to pay less than $1-billion).
3. Has the stock market recovered from the disaster of the spring period?
Shockingly enough....yes. A lot of people will admit back in March....they lost 20-percent of their portfolio and they were told by the 'experts' on CNBC that it would not be in 2020 or 2021 that their money would come back to a 'norm'. Yet, here we are....six months later, and the 20-percent lost....is now returned.
4. The feeling of getting 'lectured' when watching TV news?
There's not a single element left on any news network....where you don't feel 'lectured'. Half the time, you reach some level where you realize the hypocritical values being laid out, and the other half....you start to feel the suggestion that you ought to be a guilt trip for something (you just can't figure out what).
5. Will you miss NCAA football this fall?
Probably. But then you will discover that hunting, fishing and other recreational activities suddenly become interesting again. Along the way, you might discover that your wife and niece are interesting in hunting, and you drag them out on a six-hour adventure.
6. If you mob and assault a policeman?
Well....in some states, if you are lucky.....they could twist it enough to be a misdemeanor and get you only up to 12 months in a state jail. If they twist it the other way, into a felony....it could be three years in a state jail.
On the stupidity scale, this would be near a ten.
7. The most stupid political strategy possible?
You line up a quarter-million hooligans across the country and conduct riots/lootings daily, with video fed across social media. Then you allow the general public to view the video, and attempt to convince them if you just voted against Trump.....it'd come to an end.
This type of thinking and strategy? If you hung around real people and engaged in regular conversation, you'd find that working-class people don't buy into this type of stupidity.
8. One odd aspect of this Jacob Blake character (the black guy shot in the back by the police). Part of this argument brewing with him and the gal on the front yard (before the cops get the call).....he'd taken the woman's keys and was absolute about not handing them back to her.
He was more or less....begging to have the police involved in this scene.
9. Sarah Palin going into court against the NY Times?
Yes. And this might be curious to see how far it gets before the Times has to issue an apology and hand over a couple million.
10. What are you really being offered by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party?
Go out and simply ask a hundred regular people on the street. The only thing which most can readily say.....the one item offered is a Trumpless White House. Beyond that....they will not be able to sustain a conversation.
This is an even worse situation than 2016.
Friday 28 August 2020
The CNN Interview
I sat this morning and watched the 11-minute video of CNN's Anderson Cooper trying to interview Joe Biden. It's probably about 8 to 10 hours old at this point.
So three observations:
1. There are at least ten occasions over the interview where you can see Joe looking at some monitor....as if he was getting advice on how to answer the question.
Maybe he was looking at some dog in the corner, or gazing at some carpet stain on basement floor....but it was obvious that he was focused on something away from the camera.
It doesn't detract from his interview, but it makes you ask questions.
2. Cooper's questions? Fairly simple....nothing that a 2nd year college student couldn't handle.
3. At the end of the 11 minutes, I simply couldn't imagine 90 minutes of this type of activity, in a debate with Trump....with Joe on his own without a connection to the handlers. It wasn't that way in 2008 or 2012, so it begs questions if Joe is really prepared for this election.
So three observations:
1. There are at least ten occasions over the interview where you can see Joe looking at some monitor....as if he was getting advice on how to answer the question.
Maybe he was looking at some dog in the corner, or gazing at some carpet stain on basement floor....but it was obvious that he was focused on something away from the camera.
It doesn't detract from his interview, but it makes you ask questions.
2. Cooper's questions? Fairly simple....nothing that a 2nd year college student couldn't handle.
3. At the end of the 11 minutes, I simply couldn't imagine 90 minutes of this type of activity, in a debate with Trump....with Joe on his own without a connection to the handlers. It wasn't that way in 2008 or 2012, so it begs questions if Joe is really prepared for this election.
Thursday 27 August 2020
The Morning of 4 November 2020
I see these eight things unfolding:
1. At least fifteen states admit that they are having issues in counting the mail-in votes. Half of them are suggesting results will not be finalized for another two weeks.
2. Thirty-five states are finalized on the 4th, with thirty of them being Trump-win states. On Electoral College votes, it's over.
3. Almost 40-percent of black voters (nearing close to 50-percent of black males)....have voted for Trump.
4. In cities like Portland, Minneapolis, and Seattle....it's close to a 50-50 voting situation for Trump/Biden.
5. Polling people find that the the riots seemed to work in favor of Trump....convincing almost 20-percent of Hillary-voters in 2016, to cross the line and vote for Trump in 2020.
6. The DNC has a meeting on 4 November to move onto the next strategy quickly....another impeachment attempt on Trump.
7. More than 20 black and Latino Republicans win House seats in this election.....including District 7 of Maryland (Baltimore-City).
8. CNN is mostly in shock on the 4th.
1. At least fifteen states admit that they are having issues in counting the mail-in votes. Half of them are suggesting results will not be finalized for another two weeks.
2. Thirty-five states are finalized on the 4th, with thirty of them being Trump-win states. On Electoral College votes, it's over.
3. Almost 40-percent of black voters (nearing close to 50-percent of black males)....have voted for Trump.
4. In cities like Portland, Minneapolis, and Seattle....it's close to a 50-50 voting situation for Trump/Biden.
5. Polling people find that the the riots seemed to work in favor of Trump....convincing almost 20-percent of Hillary-voters in 2016, to cross the line and vote for Trump in 2020.
6. The DNC has a meeting on 4 November to move onto the next strategy quickly....another impeachment attempt on Trump.
7. More than 20 black and Latino Republicans win House seats in this election.....including District 7 of Maryland (Baltimore-City).
8. CNN is mostly in shock on the 4th.
Long, Long Time Ago, I Could Still Remember
This past week, about a half-dozen professors from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school stood up and stomped their feet.
They believe that back in 1968, Donald Trump paid someone to take his SAT exam....therefore acquiring their degree in a fraudulent way.
The crew suggesting this? Oddly, they all teach ethics.
The university take on this? NO, they have virtually no interest in trying to open this or discuss the allegation.
So lets admire the landscape.
1968....52 years ago.
The person they suggest as the fake tester? Joe Shapiro. He's been dead for over twenty years....just for the record.
Even if the college had gone to the first step of this and asked questions....who would you ask? The dead guy? Trump?
Maybe if he'd stayed around to do two more years and complete a thesis....you could open that up and make accusations of poor writing or failed citations. But he only lingered there long enough for the bachelor's degree.
So this became more or less another humor-piece for people laugh about. An accusation from 52 years ago, with no substance. Even if they had launched into this and dug up super-secret things and achieved the goal of revoking the degree....then what? Would the public even care if a 74-year old guy had a degree?
They believe that back in 1968, Donald Trump paid someone to take his SAT exam....therefore acquiring their degree in a fraudulent way.
The crew suggesting this? Oddly, they all teach ethics.
The university take on this? NO, they have virtually no interest in trying to open this or discuss the allegation.
So lets admire the landscape.
1968....52 years ago.
The person they suggest as the fake tester? Joe Shapiro. He's been dead for over twenty years....just for the record.
Even if the college had gone to the first step of this and asked questions....who would you ask? The dead guy? Trump?
Maybe if he'd stayed around to do two more years and complete a thesis....you could open that up and make accusations of poor writing or failed citations. But he only lingered there long enough for the bachelor's degree.
So this became more or less another humor-piece for people laugh about. An accusation from 52 years ago, with no substance. Even if they had launched into this and dug up super-secret things and achieved the goal of revoking the degree....then what? Would the public even care if a 74-year old guy had a degree?
Wednesday 26 August 2020
When the Taser Doesn't Work
I sat yesterday and observed the video of the Kenosha video of Jacob Blake, getting tased. From that moment....Blake was up in about eight to ten seconds. Most cops argue over this stage....suggesting you have about 30 to 60 seconds as a minimum...up to three to four minutes maximum.....where the guy is not able to gain muscle coordination.
The effect on Blake? Almost zero.
So it begs the question. The cops believed after they'd tased Blake....they had a minute or so to gain the upper hand. Why didn't it have an effect?
Crappy taser? Guy on some type of drugs? Did they tase some 'protected' part of his body?
It just begs questions.
The effect on Blake? Almost zero.
So it begs the question. The cops believed after they'd tased Blake....they had a minute or so to gain the upper hand. Why didn't it have an effect?
Crappy taser? Guy on some type of drugs? Did they tase some 'protected' part of his body?
It just begs questions.
The 'Wet' Story
As a kid, I grew up in a dry county. This meant....for any adult to consume booze or beer....you drove to the state line. Naturally, this also meant that small-town police built a business enterprise on being active Friday and Saturday night.
As the years passed in Alabama.....a generation passes, and a generation arrives. Things change.
The state eventually made up the rule that if you held a municipal election in your town or city.....you could opt-out of being dry. So, town by town....they voted, and moved on....getting 'wet'.
The nearest town (up until this point) to the old family farm with 'wet tendencies'....was 9.4 miles away (yes, we can get it down to the .1-level).
My brother brought this up in the AM today. The town that we generally claimed as our address? 5.9 miles away, and had remained dry....until yesterday (25 Aug 2020). A vote was carried out....254 people showing up and 148 folks voting in favor of 'wet'.
There's some paperwork required, and licenses would have to be issued. One can figure the arrival of 'wet' not to occur until mid-January probably.
The 106 people disappointed? Well....they likely sat there with a Tab or Dr Pepper, tearing up a bit that devilish things are about to occur in the town.
A full-up liquor shop opening? There might be two or three folks with crazy ideas in their head about opening a shop. The chief problem here....folks kinda expect a real four-star shop, and the tendency in these cases is to open up a 600 square foot shop with ten typical beers, twenty typical wines, and maybe thirty types of booze. Yeah.....going 2-star status.
Upon arriving at my first real Air Force base (in Germany)....I went to the local Class-6 beverage shop....run by the recreation folks on the base. It was an aluminum building....probably 9k square feet of space. Just on wines alone, there were probably 250 types. They had at least thirty American beer types, and probably near forty German beers. You could have spent two hours walking around and debating what to buy for the weekend.
As for a real bar, or lounge opening up? I'd have my doubts that a bar appears over the next two or three years. Some guy will eventually get some creative idea and open up some lounge called 'Satan's Inn' or 'Beer-Hall #9'. As for clients? It'll be mostly farmers, school-teachers, and retired guys.
The old commentary that hell would have to freeze over before such-and-such town goes 'wet'? Well....yeah, it's been more chilly than usual.
As the years passed in Alabama.....a generation passes, and a generation arrives. Things change.
The state eventually made up the rule that if you held a municipal election in your town or city.....you could opt-out of being dry. So, town by town....they voted, and moved on....getting 'wet'.
The nearest town (up until this point) to the old family farm with 'wet tendencies'....was 9.4 miles away (yes, we can get it down to the .1-level).
My brother brought this up in the AM today. The town that we generally claimed as our address? 5.9 miles away, and had remained dry....until yesterday (25 Aug 2020). A vote was carried out....254 people showing up and 148 folks voting in favor of 'wet'.
There's some paperwork required, and licenses would have to be issued. One can figure the arrival of 'wet' not to occur until mid-January probably.
The 106 people disappointed? Well....they likely sat there with a Tab or Dr Pepper, tearing up a bit that devilish things are about to occur in the town.
A full-up liquor shop opening? There might be two or three folks with crazy ideas in their head about opening a shop. The chief problem here....folks kinda expect a real four-star shop, and the tendency in these cases is to open up a 600 square foot shop with ten typical beers, twenty typical wines, and maybe thirty types of booze. Yeah.....going 2-star status.
Upon arriving at my first real Air Force base (in Germany)....I went to the local Class-6 beverage shop....run by the recreation folks on the base. It was an aluminum building....probably 9k square feet of space. Just on wines alone, there were probably 250 types. They had at least thirty American beer types, and probably near forty German beers. You could have spent two hours walking around and debating what to buy for the weekend.
As for a real bar, or lounge opening up? I'd have my doubts that a bar appears over the next two or three years. Some guy will eventually get some creative idea and open up some lounge called 'Satan's Inn' or 'Beer-Hall #9'. As for clients? It'll be mostly farmers, school-teachers, and retired guys.
The old commentary that hell would have to freeze over before such-and-such town goes 'wet'? Well....yeah, it's been more chilly than usual.
After Watching RNC #2
1. There are a dozen speeches which I think will be packaged as advertisements over the next month. Some will be significant pieces and gain more votes for Trump.
2. Next weeks polling? The 'bounce' here for Trump? I'd say three to four points up.
3. Maximo Alverez speech? It will solidify the Cuban vote in Florida. With 1.5-million Cubans in the state....I'd take a guess that 1.1-million are voters, and probably 90-percent will be Trump supporters.
4. Limiting or curtailing the old guy Republican Senator appearances at the convention is a positive.
2. Next weeks polling? The 'bounce' here for Trump? I'd say three to four points up.
3. Maximo Alverez speech? It will solidify the Cuban vote in Florida. With 1.5-million Cubans in the state....I'd take a guess that 1.1-million are voters, and probably 90-percent will be Trump supporters.
4. Limiting or curtailing the old guy Republican Senator appearances at the convention is a positive.
Tuesday 25 August 2020
Ten Observations Over Covid-19
1. It's getting painfully obvious that the virus was around way before December 2019. With the Barcelona sewage water tests....someone in the city back in March of 2019....had bowel movements, and crapped out into the city system. They kept samples of the water for that particular week and can see this via lab tests.
So you'd have to assume some Chiense tourists....probably from March time-frame (2019) already had the virus and was traveling around with it. You might even be able to do a time-table for this and suggest that the lab problem occurred in late 2018.
2. Did the leadership authorities only find out about this in December 2019? No one can cite any factual evidence to support this.
I would make a humble observation that the local medical folks and political folks around Wuhan kept this whole problem quiet for at least six to twelve months.
3. A 'Jesus' vaccine existing to save everyone?
Because of the anti-bodies business....I'd suggest that the vaccine that does get pushed out the door....will marginally protect you for four to six months, and you'd have to repeat it often.
4. The cruise business dying off?
If they don't return to a state of normalcy by mid-2021....then I'll suggest a month by month bankruptcy problem starting up. You can play this 6 to 12 month 'stall', but as you get into 2021....either business starts up or they all start to fail.
5. Suicidal numbers will begin to creep up as the holiday season approaches and lock-down/shutdown behavior is the norm.
6. The little-guy businesses in California and NY City....are dying off. Covid-19 just speeded up the process.
7. Musicals and plays on Broadway? Prepare for a long drought....maybe two to three years before anything starts to show up.
8. Social Security pay-outs are going to radically change over the next five years, with more and more older folks dying from Covid-19.
9. Eventually, someone is going to sue NY state for putting Covid-virus folks into the rest-homes of NY state. It may take five years for the cases to conclude, but the state is going to have to look for ten-plus billion to pay off all the families that 'suffered'.
10. A major population shift is going to occur in the next ten years, and Covid is only one of the five ingredients to this shift. Southern states will gain probably over 20-million in population as 2030 arrives. California and NY will lose big-time.
So you'd have to assume some Chiense tourists....probably from March time-frame (2019) already had the virus and was traveling around with it. You might even be able to do a time-table for this and suggest that the lab problem occurred in late 2018.
2. Did the leadership authorities only find out about this in December 2019? No one can cite any factual evidence to support this.
I would make a humble observation that the local medical folks and political folks around Wuhan kept this whole problem quiet for at least six to twelve months.
3. A 'Jesus' vaccine existing to save everyone?
Because of the anti-bodies business....I'd suggest that the vaccine that does get pushed out the door....will marginally protect you for four to six months, and you'd have to repeat it often.
4. The cruise business dying off?
If they don't return to a state of normalcy by mid-2021....then I'll suggest a month by month bankruptcy problem starting up. You can play this 6 to 12 month 'stall', but as you get into 2021....either business starts up or they all start to fail.
5. Suicidal numbers will begin to creep up as the holiday season approaches and lock-down/shutdown behavior is the norm.
6. The little-guy businesses in California and NY City....are dying off. Covid-19 just speeded up the process.
7. Musicals and plays on Broadway? Prepare for a long drought....maybe two to three years before anything starts to show up.
8. Social Security pay-outs are going to radically change over the next five years, with more and more older folks dying from Covid-19.
9. Eventually, someone is going to sue NY state for putting Covid-virus folks into the rest-homes of NY state. It may take five years for the cases to conclude, but the state is going to have to look for ten-plus billion to pay off all the families that 'suffered'.
10. A major population shift is going to occur in the next ten years, and Covid is only one of the five ingredients to this shift. Southern states will gain probably over 20-million in population as 2030 arrives. California and NY will lose big-time.
The 'Ghost' Boost
Normally, after a convention ends...you get a 'boost'. Maybe three points....maybe even five points.
So today, the poll folks came out and said that the Democratic Convention ended, and what Joe Biden got in terms of a boost....was zero....more or less.
Blame? No one discusses this part of the strategy, or if the Convention was seriously flawed. You can't even say that Joe Biden is at fault.
Normally, there would be a message, which the Convention would lay out, and people would feel enthusiasm. So that simply isn't there.
A problem in November?
So today, the poll folks came out and said that the Democratic Convention ended, and what Joe Biden got in terms of a boost....was zero....more or less.
Blame? No one discusses this part of the strategy, or if the Convention was seriously flawed. You can't even say that Joe Biden is at fault.
Normally, there would be a message, which the Convention would lay out, and people would feel enthusiasm. So that simply isn't there.
A problem in November?
BLM Sign
RNC: Night 1
I spent about 70 minutes this morning looking at clips. My observations:
1. Senator Tim Scott gave a 12-minute speech, which I'd rate near 5-stars.
2. They allocated three minutes to Herschel Walker, who I think gave a pretty good speech. It would have better to give the guy triple that time.
3. The highlight speech for the evening was this St Louis couple who defended their home, and got charged up by local Democratic authorities. They got four minutes to say their piece and it probably hurt Biden's middle-class support by what they had to say.
Overall, from what I saw....it was a good opening night. At least they did have a crowd in the arena...although numbering less than 200 (social distancing) from what I could observe.
1. Senator Tim Scott gave a 12-minute speech, which I'd rate near 5-stars.
2. They allocated three minutes to Herschel Walker, who I think gave a pretty good speech. It would have better to give the guy triple that time.
3. The highlight speech for the evening was this St Louis couple who defended their home, and got charged up by local Democratic authorities. They got four minutes to say their piece and it probably hurt Biden's middle-class support by what they had to say.
Overall, from what I saw....it was a good opening night. At least they did have a crowd in the arena...although numbering less than 200 (social distancing) from what I could observe.
Sunday 23 August 2020
What Does 25-Billion Dollars Granted by the House Really Give USPS?
After all the chatter, and fake negotiation.....you sit there and wonder....if the 25-billion dollars does pass all the way through and is given to the Post Office folks....what does it really mean?
If you went out to buy a F-22 aircraft.....they run around 330-million EACH. So the post office could go and buy 75 F-22 fighters, just as a comparison.
Their profit per year? The post office typically makes in the range of $75-billion year.....so this is about one-third of what they'd take in.
New paint for every single building?
New battery-powered jeeps for delivery?
Special training seminars in Hawaii every month for the top 500 managers?
This is the part of the story which you wonder about. The $25-billion may mean absolutely nothing.
Your letter may still take 3 days to reach some town about 32 miles away. As you drop it in the box.....some marginally capable guy will come and pick up the contents....driving it to a central office in the county, and then get loaded onto the 'state-truck' which takes it all the way from Florence, Alabama.....to Birmingham (116 miles) where thirty-two folks run a processing line to determine the next step for your letter, and route to another 'state-truck' to bring it back to Florence, but deliver it across the river to Red Bay.
You could have given the letter to 'Timmy' on his horse, and had it personally delivered to Red Bay with a 8-hour ride by horse.
If I sound skeptical of this whole thing, it just seems to be people eager to part with money, and having no real plan on how 25-billion really improves much of anything in the end. It'd be like me trying to convince the wife to let me spend $12-thousand on a customized brewery system for the garage, and never mentioning that I'd only be brewing thirty gallons a year of beer, or that the beer would be marginally two-star in quality.
If you went out to buy a F-22 aircraft.....they run around 330-million EACH. So the post office could go and buy 75 F-22 fighters, just as a comparison.
Their profit per year? The post office typically makes in the range of $75-billion year.....so this is about one-third of what they'd take in.
New paint for every single building?
New battery-powered jeeps for delivery?
Special training seminars in Hawaii every month for the top 500 managers?
This is the part of the story which you wonder about. The $25-billion may mean absolutely nothing.
Your letter may still take 3 days to reach some town about 32 miles away. As you drop it in the box.....some marginally capable guy will come and pick up the contents....driving it to a central office in the county, and then get loaded onto the 'state-truck' which takes it all the way from Florence, Alabama.....to Birmingham (116 miles) where thirty-two folks run a processing line to determine the next step for your letter, and route to another 'state-truck' to bring it back to Florence, but deliver it across the river to Red Bay.
You could have given the letter to 'Timmy' on his horse, and had it personally delivered to Red Bay with a 8-hour ride by horse.
If I sound skeptical of this whole thing, it just seems to be people eager to part with money, and having no real plan on how 25-billion really improves much of anything in the end. It'd be like me trying to convince the wife to let me spend $12-thousand on a customized brewery system for the garage, and never mentioning that I'd only be brewing thirty gallons a year of beer, or that the beer would be marginally two-star in quality.
The Land-Slide Scenario
Basically, the November election would work this way:
1. Because of the legislation by 16 states....all with normal Democratic leadership....if the national vote goes to one person, EVEN if their state population in the majority voted for someone else....their Electoral College votes would go to the national winner.
2. Those states? DC, California, Washington, Hawaii, Conn, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Delaware, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Mass, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, and Ill. It adds up to 196 Electoral votes.
3. In this game, they are playing out the scenario that even if Trump invested money and won these states in a normal fashion....because the Democratic guy had more votes....they'd get the important EC votes.
4. In this scenario, Trump would best Biden/Harris by one single vote nationally, and the 196 votes would go to Trump (even if Trump didn't win any of the 16), and it'd be a heavy dynamic vote and pain for the news media to explain the loss across the sixteen states.
Odds of this? Before Covid-19 and the Antifa business....I would have said marginally possible. At this point, I'd say it's a 50-percent possibility.
1. Because of the legislation by 16 states....all with normal Democratic leadership....if the national vote goes to one person, EVEN if their state population in the majority voted for someone else....their Electoral College votes would go to the national winner.
2. Those states? DC, California, Washington, Hawaii, Conn, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Delaware, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Mass, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, and Ill. It adds up to 196 Electoral votes.
3. In this game, they are playing out the scenario that even if Trump invested money and won these states in a normal fashion....because the Democratic guy had more votes....they'd get the important EC votes.
4. In this scenario, Trump would best Biden/Harris by one single vote nationally, and the 196 votes would go to Trump (even if Trump didn't win any of the 16), and it'd be a heavy dynamic vote and pain for the news media to explain the loss across the sixteen states.
Odds of this? Before Covid-19 and the Antifa business....I would have said marginally possible. At this point, I'd say it's a 50-percent possibility.
Saturday 22 August 2020
What Happens to NY City Over the Next Decade?
My prediction of the future:
1. Businesses. Most all big companies (Wall Street, insurance and banking) will relocate out of the city. You will already see evidence of this in the spring of 2021.
Most employees will be working out of their homes, and meeting every two to three weeks at some site (probably not NY City) with a face to face of division chiefs, for four to eight hours of discussions. The chiefs will have a face-to-face with their teams once a month, again at some remote site. You can figure towns like Myrtle Beach, Dayton, Indianapolis, Orlando, etc....will see mini-conference center business jump in a major way.
2. Restaurants. Seventy-five percent of big-name restaurants in NY City will disappear by spring of 2021. Same with bars.
3. The subway system. By spring of 2021, the subway folks will admit that business is off by sixty-percent, and cut-backs of rush-hour traffic is announced. An emergency plan is routed to the mayor detailing a 50-percent cut-back on weekend traffic for the subway system.
4. Illegals in the city will be half of the normal situation.
5. Musicals and Broadway shows will go through a harsh cutback.
6. Tourism by the end of 2021 is forty-percent of the norm. Some big-name hotels discuss plans to convert to condo operations. Some 3-star hotels by spring of 2022 are offering month-long deals averaging $60 a day.
7. Several networks discuss plans to vacate the city.
8. Properties which were listed last year for $1.5-million....will be running in the $500k range by summer of 2021. Several big name real estate people with mass holdings....will be near bankruptcy by the end of 2022.
9. Without the tax revenue....the police and fire departments are to be cut by 30 to 40 percent by 2024.
10. Chinese and Russian millionaires arrive in NY City by the end of 2021, and scoop up hundreds of properties as investment opportunities. By 2025, they discover that the value has continued to slide and the value is half of what they paid originally.
11. The Mets (MLB team) are openly discussing by 2022 the idea of relocating to Nashville. As they vacate and leave, the Knicks start a discussion of relocating to Nashville in 2024.
12. The metro NY population by the end of 2022 is at 14-million (down 4-million from 2019).
1. Businesses. Most all big companies (Wall Street, insurance and banking) will relocate out of the city. You will already see evidence of this in the spring of 2021.
Most employees will be working out of their homes, and meeting every two to three weeks at some site (probably not NY City) with a face to face of division chiefs, for four to eight hours of discussions. The chiefs will have a face-to-face with their teams once a month, again at some remote site. You can figure towns like Myrtle Beach, Dayton, Indianapolis, Orlando, etc....will see mini-conference center business jump in a major way.
2. Restaurants. Seventy-five percent of big-name restaurants in NY City will disappear by spring of 2021. Same with bars.
3. The subway system. By spring of 2021, the subway folks will admit that business is off by sixty-percent, and cut-backs of rush-hour traffic is announced. An emergency plan is routed to the mayor detailing a 50-percent cut-back on weekend traffic for the subway system.
4. Illegals in the city will be half of the normal situation.
5. Musicals and Broadway shows will go through a harsh cutback.
6. Tourism by the end of 2021 is forty-percent of the norm. Some big-name hotels discuss plans to convert to condo operations. Some 3-star hotels by spring of 2022 are offering month-long deals averaging $60 a day.
7. Several networks discuss plans to vacate the city.
8. Properties which were listed last year for $1.5-million....will be running in the $500k range by summer of 2021. Several big name real estate people with mass holdings....will be near bankruptcy by the end of 2022.
9. Without the tax revenue....the police and fire departments are to be cut by 30 to 40 percent by 2024.
10. Chinese and Russian millionaires arrive in NY City by the end of 2021, and scoop up hundreds of properties as investment opportunities. By 2025, they discover that the value has continued to slide and the value is half of what they paid originally.
11. The Mets (MLB team) are openly discussing by 2022 the idea of relocating to Nashville. As they vacate and leave, the Knicks start a discussion of relocating to Nashville in 2024.
12. The metro NY population by the end of 2022 is at 14-million (down 4-million from 2019).
Friday 21 August 2020
A Waiver Story
I sat and read over Tennessee news yesterday. This school district (outer regions of Nashville) had the plan worked up for Covid-19 and virtual school.....meaning the kids stayed home, and the teacher would 'broadcast' her 'show' when they went into a lockdown situation.
HOWEVER, the school sent the kids home with a waiver that had to be signed....stating that the parents would NOT watch the virtual school 'show'. If the parent violated that 'trust'.....then the 'show' would be turned off for that kid.
I sat and paused over this. Naturally, a lot of parents from this district asked questions. Why would watching the 'show' be of any consequence? Course, if you were doing more indoctrination or brainwashing....than actual teaching, then it might matter.
Basically, whether it was intended as a positive matter or not....they've invited a discussion over what the heck they are teaching, and creating a long-term trust issue.
HOWEVER, the school sent the kids home with a waiver that had to be signed....stating that the parents would NOT watch the virtual school 'show'. If the parent violated that 'trust'.....then the 'show' would be turned off for that kid.
I sat and paused over this. Naturally, a lot of parents from this district asked questions. Why would watching the 'show' be of any consequence? Course, if you were doing more indoctrination or brainwashing....than actual teaching, then it might matter.
Basically, whether it was intended as a positive matter or not....they've invited a discussion over what the heck they are teaching, and creating a long-term trust issue.
NY City Voting in 2020?
In 2016, Hillary Clinton collected 579k votes from the Manhattan area. With a fair number of people having left the city....my humble bet is that Joe Biden will be lucky to get in the 300k vote range.
DNC Convention Ends
I sat and watched the end of night four for the Democratic Convention (skipping night three entirely).
Joe standing there, with VP Harris, and the two spouses.....hands raised. All wearing masks. Just a weird scene to view.
Some kind of low-key music. No crowd on the interior....maybe forty folks around the stage.
Outside, maybe a hundred vehicles in the parking lot, with some cheaply done fireworks,. It was one of those scenes that you'd put in a Monty Python movie.
Tons of money saved with this virtual convention, but it has no charisma or charm. The Bill Clinton speech? Probably the better of the 'acts' of the four-day period.
Joe standing there, with VP Harris, and the two spouses.....hands raised. All wearing masks. Just a weird scene to view.
Some kind of low-key music. No crowd on the interior....maybe forty folks around the stage.
Outside, maybe a hundred vehicles in the parking lot, with some cheaply done fireworks,. It was one of those scenes that you'd put in a Monty Python movie.
Tons of money saved with this virtual convention, but it has no charisma or charm. The Bill Clinton speech? Probably the better of the 'acts' of the four-day period.
Thursday 20 August 2020
Your Odds
1. You have better odds of having an accident where you hit some Chinese-tourist at 3 AM in Dothan.
2. You have better odds of getting attacked by a bear.
3. You have better odds of getting struck by lightning while painting your barn roof.
4. You have better odds of Auburn betting Alabama by a score of 70 to 7.
5. You have better odds of finding a single PhD-educated Republican single gal (age 40) who drinks beer from the bottle, smokes unfiltered cigarettes, and does her own brake-jobs.
The Super-Secret Trump Destruction Plan For Mail
I'm going to present the super-secret plan in full detail:
1. All postal boxes will be removed completely. Then all sorting machines will be disconnected.
2. Mail will be dumped into canvas bags and delivered to a Utah warehouse, where it'll be bulk-loaded onto cargo planes, to be flown into China.
3. Once in China, 66k US-hired Chinese will sort the mail manually. With a 9-week delay built into the system, your ballot will be still in China in February of 2021.
4. This is all hush-hush, and only known by President Trump, the Postmaster General, and Trump's barber.
(fake news)
1. All postal boxes will be removed completely. Then all sorting machines will be disconnected.
2. Mail will be dumped into canvas bags and delivered to a Utah warehouse, where it'll be bulk-loaded onto cargo planes, to be flown into China.
3. Once in China, 66k US-hired Chinese will sort the mail manually. With a 9-week delay built into the system, your ballot will be still in China in February of 2021.
4. This is all hush-hush, and only known by President Trump, the Postmaster General, and Trump's barber.
(fake news)
Wednesday 19 August 2020
Democratic Convention: Night 2
Basically, with the clips added up....I watched a total of about 60 minutes.
Four observations:
1. There's a real problem in generating hype and enthusiasm compared to a normal convention. As they emerge out of this week, I seriously doubt that they get more than 2 or 3 points of a gain, and within a week....that's gone.
I blame the digital way this was handled.....you just can't generate hype.
2. Bill Clinton speaks? Well....in a minor and short way. They should have given him twice the talking time.
3. Jill Biden's speech? I give it three stars.
4. After everything wrapped up.....they came back around to viewers for night #1....where it lost a quarter of the audience from 2016.
They need some magic to really pull up the numbers at this point.
Four observations:
1. There's a real problem in generating hype and enthusiasm compared to a normal convention. As they emerge out of this week, I seriously doubt that they get more than 2 or 3 points of a gain, and within a week....that's gone.
I blame the digital way this was handled.....you just can't generate hype.
2. Bill Clinton speaks? Well....in a minor and short way. They should have given him twice the talking time.
3. Jill Biden's speech? I give it three stars.
4. After everything wrapped up.....they came back around to viewers for night #1....where it lost a quarter of the audience from 2016.
They need some magic to really pull up the numbers at this point.
Tuesday 18 August 2020
Next Week Will Be Interesting
The Postmaster General agreed to meet next week...at the House Oversight and Reform Committee meeting. What'll happen? My expectations:
1. He's going to guarantee them that he CAN'T guarantee anything unless it all moved by registered mail....meaning you get a note to go and pick up your note at the post office, you can track the letter each step of the way, and you go back there to mail the ballot....sending it either registered.
2. He's going to tell them a particular dead-line date that the ballot has to be mailed by (likely being around the 10th week of October). If it's not in the system by that point, the expectations of coming back by the 3rd of November drastically decreases.
3. The arguments by the Democratic members of this committee will reach a level, where trust in the post office to handle this....is zero. Instead of giving people trust....they will in some way....make this a miserable expectation.
4. He's going to tell the committee that fake ballots will probably occur, and he can't prevent that....nor can the committee do anything to prevent fake ballots.
5. He's going to suggest that safety and security of post office operations are in jeopardy because of Antifa. Then he'll suggest hiring over 50k private security folks for this period.....with Congress paying for four weeks of extra security.
1. He's going to guarantee them that he CAN'T guarantee anything unless it all moved by registered mail....meaning you get a note to go and pick up your note at the post office, you can track the letter each step of the way, and you go back there to mail the ballot....sending it either registered.
2. He's going to tell them a particular dead-line date that the ballot has to be mailed by (likely being around the 10th week of October). If it's not in the system by that point, the expectations of coming back by the 3rd of November drastically decreases.
3. The arguments by the Democratic members of this committee will reach a level, where trust in the post office to handle this....is zero. Instead of giving people trust....they will in some way....make this a miserable expectation.
4. He's going to tell the committee that fake ballots will probably occur, and he can't prevent that....nor can the committee do anything to prevent fake ballots.
5. He's going to suggest that safety and security of post office operations are in jeopardy because of Antifa. Then he'll suggest hiring over 50k private security folks for this period.....with Congress paying for four weeks of extra security.
Forty Minutes of DNC Convention 'Frolics'
If you add up the video clips I watched of the opening night of the DNC Convention....it's about 35 to 40 minutes.
The general feeling? It's like one of those Jerry Lewis telethons.....about 16 hours into the 'show'.
There is no drama. There is no crowd. Mostly just a collection of speeches.....mostly downsizing Trump....not pumping up Joe Biden. Maybe those came later, but it just left a sour taste in my mouth.
If I had this live on TV? Yeah....I'd probably be slipping over to the History Channel.
If it doesn't improve on the second night? I'd just go and cancel out the 3rd and 4th night. Whoever dreamed this up as a strategy.....screwed-up.
The general feeling? It's like one of those Jerry Lewis telethons.....about 16 hours into the 'show'.
There is no drama. There is no crowd. Mostly just a collection of speeches.....mostly downsizing Trump....not pumping up Joe Biden. Maybe those came later, but it just left a sour taste in my mouth.
If I had this live on TV? Yeah....I'd probably be slipping over to the History Channel.
If it doesn't improve on the second night? I'd just go and cancel out the 3rd and 4th night. Whoever dreamed this up as a strategy.....screwed-up.
Monday 17 August 2020
The Reality of Mail-In-Voting
Basically, you'd need to have all the ballots printed and ready to mail out by the later part of September. That means handing the job over to the approval group of each state by 1 September and finalize the 'job' required.
1 September? Well....that's roughly two weeks away.
No screw-ups in the process? That's why I state the obvious....this needs to wrapped up at the printing plants by the 4th week of September, and handed to the postal system sometime in the week of the 15th of October.
The three debates? Well, this comes into the game as well. The first debate doesn't occur until 29 September. The second would be 15 October. The last would be 22 October.
Looking at the mailing business....you might as well cancel the 22 October debate because a high number of people would have mailed their ballot back by this point.
What if you wait until the 23rd of October to make this decision and mail the ballot? The post office won't open until the 26th (Monday). Could the postal system handle 70-odd million envelopes going out on the 26th and getting to the right address by 3rd of November? I kinda doubt it.
The idea of Joe Biden having health issues, and Harris moving up, with a new VP? State by state, this would need to be corrected on the ballots, before the massive printing or mail-out.
1 September? Well....that's roughly two weeks away.
No screw-ups in the process? That's why I state the obvious....this needs to wrapped up at the printing plants by the 4th week of September, and handed to the postal system sometime in the week of the 15th of October.
The three debates? Well, this comes into the game as well. The first debate doesn't occur until 29 September. The second would be 15 October. The last would be 22 October.
Looking at the mailing business....you might as well cancel the 22 October debate because a high number of people would have mailed their ballot back by this point.
What if you wait until the 23rd of October to make this decision and mail the ballot? The post office won't open until the 26th (Monday). Could the postal system handle 70-odd million envelopes going out on the 26th and getting to the right address by 3rd of November? I kinda doubt it.
The idea of Joe Biden having health issues, and Harris moving up, with a new VP? State by state, this would need to be corrected on the ballots, before the massive printing or mail-out.
Sunday 16 August 2020
Why Is the Postal System So F**ked?
Over the last month, with all the hype going on by the political folks....you are left with two impressions:
1. The postal system is so capable....that you'd trust it with your voting apparatus.
2. The postal system is so f**ked-up, that it'd ruin the 2020 election entirely.
So I'll offer these seven observations:
1. You could mail a hundred breakable items from various points in the US....to one single address, and 99 of them would arrive in one piece. You could bundle up a hundred ballots, and find that fifty of them reach the right people, and fifty disappear. No rhyme....no reason....no statistical data, just plain luck.
2. Lets be honest and admit that probably seventy-percent of the personnel for the postal system....are kind, professional and capable people. The other thirty-percent probably ought to be 'clerking' at some gas station or serving coffee at the Waffle-Hut.
3. Fedex and UPS wouldn't exist, if the postal system wasn't so screwed-up.
4. Probably ten-percent of the population will tell you that they haven't been in a post office in five years.
5. Once you have an utter failure in the works (the day after the election)....how will people react to the post office system? You could have well over 50-million Americans all frustrated and angry. People thinking that they can survive this? They'd probably would be 'cancelled-out'.
6. BLM and Antifa frustrated enough over the postal failure that they'd burn down a hundred post office buildings? Carriers packing pistols?
7. Postal vehicles hijacked in the days prior to the election....stealing hundreds of thousands of votes?
There's some serious events coming out of this whole chaos.
1. The postal system is so capable....that you'd trust it with your voting apparatus.
2. The postal system is so f**ked-up, that it'd ruin the 2020 election entirely.
So I'll offer these seven observations:
1. You could mail a hundred breakable items from various points in the US....to one single address, and 99 of them would arrive in one piece. You could bundle up a hundred ballots, and find that fifty of them reach the right people, and fifty disappear. No rhyme....no reason....no statistical data, just plain luck.
2. Lets be honest and admit that probably seventy-percent of the personnel for the postal system....are kind, professional and capable people. The other thirty-percent probably ought to be 'clerking' at some gas station or serving coffee at the Waffle-Hut.
3. Fedex and UPS wouldn't exist, if the postal system wasn't so screwed-up.
4. Probably ten-percent of the population will tell you that they haven't been in a post office in five years.
5. Once you have an utter failure in the works (the day after the election)....how will people react to the post office system? You could have well over 50-million Americans all frustrated and angry. People thinking that they can survive this? They'd probably would be 'cancelled-out'.
6. BLM and Antifa frustrated enough over the postal failure that they'd burn down a hundred post office buildings? Carriers packing pistols?
7. Postal vehicles hijacked in the days prior to the election....stealing hundreds of thousands of votes?
There's some serious events coming out of this whole chaos.
Biden to Harris Hand-Off
Tomorrow, Monday, the Democratic Convention will start up and a thirty-day window will occur where Joe Biden will have a health issue (maybe dementia is admitted....maybe a fake heart attack....etc), and Senator Harris moves up a notch. I've predicted this for about four months now.
It has to happen prior to the 29 September Presidential debate (the first debate).
Why Harris? I think Democratic leadership considers her the 'beast' of attacking people on stage in debates. The intent is to force three of these Harris-Trump debates to a vicious conclusion.
The sad thing here? You can go back to the 2019 Democratic Debates and find that Harris didn't really impress folks that much, and these appearances never improved her odds against Joe Biden (even in her home-state of California). So this national 'game' would be played out, and more folks disenchanted with her debate talents.
What Trump is running against at this point? It's not Joe Biden, or Senator Harris. Face it.....he's running against the political machine. There's hype going on that he might actually be getting serious votes out of NY City (the police union just advocated for him) and with all the defund the police efforts across the nation....he's probably got a gain of two to three million votes over 2016 results.
But here's the serious part of the discussion. For three decades.....the urban vote has been mostly Democrat....you can't find an urban area like NY City, SF, or Seattle that has voted Republican since the 1980s. This is what brought Bill Clinton and Barak Obama into office....while losing a substantial amount of rural county vote in the US.
There are seventeen counties in NY state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (with a majority). The remaining 45 counties voted in the majority for Donald Trump. A flip of one-million votes changing this outcome? I'd now say that all this Covid-19 business, anti-business values, and defund chatter....has accomplished the changeover. I think a million votes more for Trump is now possible in NY.
I'll even go out and predict the same issue now existing in Oregon, and there's a 100k vote change from 2016, and Trump might come very close in winning Oregon.
The same issue might exist in Washington (the state) as well....with fewer people attracted to the Libertarian Party this year, and defund-the-police chatter disturbing the locals around Seattle/Tacoma. Toss 150k votes off Hillary's results, and suddenly Trump has potential to win there in Washington.
Settle back and enjoy the next ten weeks, with all the theater hype of Biden disappearing and Harris as the front-runner.
It has to happen prior to the 29 September Presidential debate (the first debate).
Why Harris? I think Democratic leadership considers her the 'beast' of attacking people on stage in debates. The intent is to force three of these Harris-Trump debates to a vicious conclusion.
The sad thing here? You can go back to the 2019 Democratic Debates and find that Harris didn't really impress folks that much, and these appearances never improved her odds against Joe Biden (even in her home-state of California). So this national 'game' would be played out, and more folks disenchanted with her debate talents.
What Trump is running against at this point? It's not Joe Biden, or Senator Harris. Face it.....he's running against the political machine. There's hype going on that he might actually be getting serious votes out of NY City (the police union just advocated for him) and with all the defund the police efforts across the nation....he's probably got a gain of two to three million votes over 2016 results.
But here's the serious part of the discussion. For three decades.....the urban vote has been mostly Democrat....you can't find an urban area like NY City, SF, or Seattle that has voted Republican since the 1980s. This is what brought Bill Clinton and Barak Obama into office....while losing a substantial amount of rural county vote in the US.
There are seventeen counties in NY state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (with a majority). The remaining 45 counties voted in the majority for Donald Trump. A flip of one-million votes changing this outcome? I'd now say that all this Covid-19 business, anti-business values, and defund chatter....has accomplished the changeover. I think a million votes more for Trump is now possible in NY.
I'll even go out and predict the same issue now existing in Oregon, and there's a 100k vote change from 2016, and Trump might come very close in winning Oregon.
The same issue might exist in Washington (the state) as well....with fewer people attracted to the Libertarian Party this year, and defund-the-police chatter disturbing the locals around Seattle/Tacoma. Toss 150k votes off Hillary's results, and suddenly Trump has potential to win there in Washington.
Settle back and enjoy the next ten weeks, with all the theater hype of Biden disappearing and Harris as the front-runner.
Saturday 15 August 2020
Boot-Camp
Today, 43 years ago, I would have been on day 12 of basic training. I don't count the 2nd of August because it was a travel day....to reach San Antonio.
In simple terms....it was extremely hot....and you appreciated any moment that you were in a shade.
This was the point where you started to actually count 'days-left' (roughly 43). We had ONE single calendar in the entire barracks (in Sarge's office). On night-duty, you'd walk through and gaze at the calendar.
By this point, you'd come to realize that chow didn't get any better or worse. You got use to either grilled ham-and-cheese sandwiches or burgers for lunch, and pineapple-upside-down cake.
You got used to 'lights-out' and a set bedtime.
You agreed with just about everyone about the crappy tasting water from the base.
You had figured out that virtually everyone from NY City seemed to be quiet pleasant and could entertain you for hours on descriptive details of the city.
You figured out that running a mile in Chukka-boots was not that bad. I should note, that was the first pair and last pair I ever 'owned'.
By this weekend, I had agreed to accompany the Catholic crowd over to services....to just see if there was anything exciting to their service. I came to note that there wasn't much to get excited about.
At this point, I gazed at my billfold, which I had taken around a hundred dollars as I left home, and they'd 'given' me another fifty-odd dollars upon arrival. Frankly, other than shoe polish, soap or can of Coke....you just weren't spending money on much of anything.
In simple terms....it was extremely hot....and you appreciated any moment that you were in a shade.
This was the point where you started to actually count 'days-left' (roughly 43). We had ONE single calendar in the entire barracks (in Sarge's office). On night-duty, you'd walk through and gaze at the calendar.
By this point, you'd come to realize that chow didn't get any better or worse. You got use to either grilled ham-and-cheese sandwiches or burgers for lunch, and pineapple-upside-down cake.
You got used to 'lights-out' and a set bedtime.
You agreed with just about everyone about the crappy tasting water from the base.
You had figured out that virtually everyone from NY City seemed to be quiet pleasant and could entertain you for hours on descriptive details of the city.
You figured out that running a mile in Chukka-boots was not that bad. I should note, that was the first pair and last pair I ever 'owned'.
By this weekend, I had agreed to accompany the Catholic crowd over to services....to just see if there was anything exciting to their service. I came to note that there wasn't much to get excited about.
At this point, I gazed at my billfold, which I had taken around a hundred dollars as I left home, and they'd 'given' me another fifty-odd dollars upon arrival. Frankly, other than shoe polish, soap or can of Coke....you just weren't spending money on much of anything.
2016 Election Period versus 2020 Election Period
Basically, ten observations:
1. Less trust and belief in the news media today, than four years ago. The 'mute-button' is more heavily used.
2. Almost zero trust in polling data, at present.
3. Hillary Clinton was out and about....very active in July and August, and only limited around 9-11 for that week of serious pneumonia. Joe Biden? Probably on appearances and speeches....doing 10-percent of what Hillary handled.
4. Tim Kaine (Hillary's VP) is almost forgotten today, and wasn't a big deal in 2016. Harris? She's carrying the entire campaign from this point forward.
5. Russian collusion chatter? Now, almost non-existent.
6. If you tested a hundred Americans, at least 70-percent know Joe's wife....mostly because she's the primary one on the campaign trail.
7. Antifa is basically flipping a minimum of a thousand-odd votes per day....from Joe Biden to Donald Trump. The BLM message is probably one of worst screw-ups in Democratic Party history.
8. The destruction of Minneapolis? It probably guaranteed Trump the state.
9. Thanks to CNN in both 2016 and 2020, most Europeans today firmly believe Joe Biden will win (90-plus percent chance).
10. There are really three candidates in the 2020 election: Biden, Trump, and Covid-19.
1. Less trust and belief in the news media today, than four years ago. The 'mute-button' is more heavily used.
2. Almost zero trust in polling data, at present.
3. Hillary Clinton was out and about....very active in July and August, and only limited around 9-11 for that week of serious pneumonia. Joe Biden? Probably on appearances and speeches....doing 10-percent of what Hillary handled.
4. Tim Kaine (Hillary's VP) is almost forgotten today, and wasn't a big deal in 2016. Harris? She's carrying the entire campaign from this point forward.
5. Russian collusion chatter? Now, almost non-existent.
6. If you tested a hundred Americans, at least 70-percent know Joe's wife....mostly because she's the primary one on the campaign trail.
7. Antifa is basically flipping a minimum of a thousand-odd votes per day....from Joe Biden to Donald Trump. The BLM message is probably one of worst screw-ups in Democratic Party history.
8. The destruction of Minneapolis? It probably guaranteed Trump the state.
9. Thanks to CNN in both 2016 and 2020, most Europeans today firmly believe Joe Biden will win (90-plus percent chance).
10. There are really three candidates in the 2020 election: Biden, Trump, and Covid-19.
Friday 14 August 2020
$3.5-Billion for Mail-in Balloting?
Yeah....this is the package that Congress has presented to the President....to hand the $3.5-billion to the 50 states to conduct the mail-in deal.
Why so much? Unknown. No one can stand there with a straight face and explain why it's such a nice 'round' number.
The cost of the two stamps (mailing you the ballot and you returning the ballot)? $1.10.
The odds here that almost $300-million will be wasted on double or triple voters? Don't even bother bringing up that problem.
Let's be honest here....probably half of all voters don't trust the mail-in deal and refuse to participate....so they are wasting $1.10 up front for about 70-odd million voters.
If this is not agreed upon? Well....no $3.5-billion and if you (as a state) get deep into this....you'd have to go borrow at least $150-million minimum....maybe even up to $300-million. Which idiot bank will loan you that money? The one wanting a significant interest deal?
The deeper you go into the mail-in-vote deal....the more corrupted it looks.
Why so much? Unknown. No one can stand there with a straight face and explain why it's such a nice 'round' number.
The cost of the two stamps (mailing you the ballot and you returning the ballot)? $1.10.
The odds here that almost $300-million will be wasted on double or triple voters? Don't even bother bringing up that problem.
Let's be honest here....probably half of all voters don't trust the mail-in deal and refuse to participate....so they are wasting $1.10 up front for about 70-odd million voters.
If this is not agreed upon? Well....no $3.5-billion and if you (as a state) get deep into this....you'd have to go borrow at least $150-million minimum....maybe even up to $300-million. Which idiot bank will loan you that money? The one wanting a significant interest deal?
The deeper you go into the mail-in-vote deal....the more corrupted it looks.
The Odds that Senator Harris Is Already Reviewing a VP List?
I'd give it 50-50 odds.
As Joe steps aside, either in the weeks to come, or after the election 'win'....Harris probably has a list made up already of individuals for her VP choice, and for the cabinet itself.
I wouldn't even see a problem in admitting such a list exists.
Would the new VP have to be a white male? Yes, some idiot probably has already made up the rules list, and it has to be a white male over the age of sixty (figure NY Governor Andrew Cuomo).
As Joe steps aside, either in the weeks to come, or after the election 'win'....Harris probably has a list made up already of individuals for her VP choice, and for the cabinet itself.
I wouldn't even see a problem in admitting such a list exists.
Would the new VP have to be a white male? Yes, some idiot probably has already made up the rules list, and it has to be a white male over the age of sixty (figure NY Governor Andrew Cuomo).
Death Chatter
So this topic came up today and it's worth five minutes pondering.Primarydoctor.org did the graphic (Colleen Huber, NMD).
Basically, it covers ALL US deaths each year since 2000, set to a limit of the first 32 weeks of each year. That means violent deaths, cancer deaths, and even suicidal deaths.
Most years, it averages out around 2.5-million to 2.8-million deaths a year. For Huber to reach a correct dataset.....she cut off each year's data at 32 weeks....in order to compare against 2020. So you aren't looking at full year data....simply 32-week data for each year.
2020 numbers? We are at 1.6-million....NOT 2.5-million as you'd have in a normal number situation.
Yes, roughly a million deaths haven't occurred on schedule.
(a long, long pause at this point)
We are missing around 1-million deaths, if you look at the plain numbers.
Will it catch up? Maybe more deaths occur around Thanksgiving and Christmas? Well....there's no factual data to support that.
So I'm going to suggest four radical thoughts here:
1. Because of the lock-down business....folks simply didn't travel as much and have car accidents.
2. Because bars and pubs were shutdown a good bit.....DWI deaths didn't occur as you'd expect.
3. Because most elective surgery procedures were cancelled into April and still today....folks are hesitant to enter a hospital. So infections didn't occur, or screw-ups at the hospitals.
4. Because school events were cancelled out, fewer teen deaths were recorded via car accidents.
Even with Covid-19 deaths.....it doesn't seem to really help inflate our numbers. At the end of 2020? It might be the lowest 'death' number year of the past forty-odd years.
Yeah....it's one of those moments when you open up a bottle of fine whiskey, and sit on the patio....sipping, contemplating the numbers, and viewing the strange arrangement we have set up for 2020.
Thursday 13 August 2020
Two Mask Stories
1. This week, I was watching German news, and this German political guy had run off to Beirut after the explosion. I won't discuss the political gain or imagery of this visit....but the guy did a one-minute chatty session....which you couldn't understand much of anything he said.
About halfway through this, I looked at his mask, and then realized...he had two masks on. The 'under-one' was the expensive N-95 'super-duper' mask (with a filter). The 'over-one' was a cheapo surgical mask.
I'm guessing he was awful fearful about getting Covid-19 there, but all this chatty hype was basically worthless because you couldn't understand nothing much he said.
2. This week, I was reading over a blog from a guy who is hired-up and working for a company.....doing office-time at home....during this Covid-period.
He admits, since early May, other than one day at work.....everything has worked fine at home, and he's getting more done.
So he gets onto this discussion....the team lead changed out. His crew (around ten) got a new 'boss', and the boss about ten days ago sent out the memo on the weekly conference video session (an hour where all projects are lightly discussed). The boss wanted two or three significant things done in a different way.....then said that everyone who appears on camera within the group....NEEDS to wear a mask (yes, while sitting at home).
In the day prior to this next session, this guy had a chat with two guys in the group, and they all voiced the opinion that was dumber than s**t.
So the day of the conference session comes up, and guy number one is on the group video 'show', but if you blew his picture up....you'd notice that it's a single picture of him with a mask on, the mouth never 'moves' and simply audio going on in the background.
The second guy? He's taken up the live voice/video thing, but his voice is heavily muffled....like South Park's Kenny McCormick. Nothing he says is understandable but he's waving arms and sounding agreeable to what everyone says.
I will offer this opinion....the longer this mask crap goes on....the more crazy things will get, and HR folks will get involved....dictating the style/type of mask, and the sixty-four rules of company mask policy.
About halfway through this, I looked at his mask, and then realized...he had two masks on. The 'under-one' was the expensive N-95 'super-duper' mask (with a filter). The 'over-one' was a cheapo surgical mask.
I'm guessing he was awful fearful about getting Covid-19 there, but all this chatty hype was basically worthless because you couldn't understand nothing much he said.
2. This week, I was reading over a blog from a guy who is hired-up and working for a company.....doing office-time at home....during this Covid-period.
He admits, since early May, other than one day at work.....everything has worked fine at home, and he's getting more done.
So he gets onto this discussion....the team lead changed out. His crew (around ten) got a new 'boss', and the boss about ten days ago sent out the memo on the weekly conference video session (an hour where all projects are lightly discussed). The boss wanted two or three significant things done in a different way.....then said that everyone who appears on camera within the group....NEEDS to wear a mask (yes, while sitting at home).
In the day prior to this next session, this guy had a chat with two guys in the group, and they all voiced the opinion that was dumber than s**t.
So the day of the conference session comes up, and guy number one is on the group video 'show', but if you blew his picture up....you'd notice that it's a single picture of him with a mask on, the mouth never 'moves' and simply audio going on in the background.
The second guy? He's taken up the live voice/video thing, but his voice is heavily muffled....like South Park's Kenny McCormick. Nothing he says is understandable but he's waving arms and sounding agreeable to what everyone says.
I will offer this opinion....the longer this mask crap goes on....the more crazy things will get, and HR folks will get involved....dictating the style/type of mask, and the sixty-four rules of company mask policy.
If You Were a Second-Year NCAA Football Player.....
Lets say you were a second-year NCAA football player with real skills....then the 'league' said because of Covid-19, there are no games for 2020. What should you do? Burn up a year of eligibility in non-play? Or go home?
If this were me, I'd pack my bag, and tell the university that I can't attend because of Covid-19, and head home. I'd return in August of 2021, if the NCAA started up games again, and not waste a near of eligibility.
If this were me, I'd pack my bag, and tell the university that I can't attend because of Covid-19, and head home. I'd return in August of 2021, if the NCAA started up games again, and not waste a near of eligibility.
Wednesday 12 August 2020
Antifa X-Files Chatter
Over the past month, I've continued to hear/read commentary from Antifa 'kids', who want me to know about abducted people and Trump's secret police. It's hyped up and I read over the claim....then wait. There should be names and locations listed out. None ever get presented.
So-and-so was abducted by the secret police, and they haven't been seen since that evening.
Well....who?
It's almost like an episode X-Files and you keep thinking Men-in-Black (MiBs not BLMs) are involved.
The Antifa kid swears up and down.....some 20-something gal was with him, and then the secret-police pull up, and grab her. So you'd think....did you do an introduction, ask about her favorite band or if she would like a Pepsi after the riot business tonight?
Will the 'smoking man' show up? Will Fox solve the mystery of missing Antifa 'maiden'? Will Scully figure out the Portland vampire-nutcase as part of the Trump secret-police episode?
It is a great urban legend....like Bigfoot or Nessie, but without a name, it's non-existent.
So-and-so was abducted by the secret police, and they haven't been seen since that evening.
Well....who?
It's almost like an episode X-Files and you keep thinking Men-in-Black (MiBs not BLMs) are involved.
The Antifa kid swears up and down.....some 20-something gal was with him, and then the secret-police pull up, and grab her. So you'd think....did you do an introduction, ask about her favorite band or if she would like a Pepsi after the riot business tonight?
Will the 'smoking man' show up? Will Fox solve the mystery of missing Antifa 'maiden'? Will Scully figure out the Portland vampire-nutcase as part of the Trump secret-police episode?
It is a great urban legend....like Bigfoot or Nessie, but without a name, it's non-existent.
If You Feel Things Are F**cked
Over the past couple of months, with all the hype on the election, Covid-19, the rapid decline in the economy, the impeachment 'corkscrew-drama', and endless nights of dramatized news....you sit there on the edge of your couch and just shake your head.
You'd like some form of 'Jesus' to arrive and just reset all this drama, and resolve things.
You'd like for Covid-19 to quietly disappear as quickly as it arrived.
You'd like for the Antifa kids to find real work, pay taxes, and clean up the neighborhoods they burnt to the ground.
You'd like for CNN to go for an entire week without uttering the word 'Trump'.
You'd like for the NBA, NFL and MLB to just center their efforts on sports and not some passion unrelated to sports.
You'd like to walk into a Piggly Wiggly without a mask, and greet Hector in the fruit department, who'd remind you of your youth when you had passion to do your job and pump you up on fantastic fruit desert ideas.
You'd like to drive home without having to encounter some idiot policeman who marginally can perform his job.
So, here's the ten things you ought to consider:
1. You can't resolve the bad cop business without dumping the union business, forcing DA's to do their jobs, and having public accountability out in front of the general population.
2. Happy people are typically people who have jobs, thrive on advancement, and don't have ridiculous taxation issues.
3. Colleges that aren't educating your kid, but charging you almost $25k a year for indoctrination.....probably aren't colleges.
4. It might be more helpful if the House and Senate were limited to seven months a year of service in DC, and forced to return home every August.
5. People running around and hyped up on revolution....probably wouldn't survive more than seven days in a real revolution.
6. If your chief political 'Jesus' has a resume that fits on a 5 x 7 inch index card....they probably haven't done much in life.
7. Professional sports without fans in the arena or stadium.....probably won't survive more than a season or two.
8. If you really like socialism that much.....go spend a year in Denmark, Iceland or Finland. Come back and tell us how it was.....or just stay there.
9. The true limitation of Kaepernick....if you think about the entire landscape....the new coach wanted a multi-talented and multi-skilled player, which he simply wasn't developed to fit into that type of style or play.
10. Finally, people who do feel f**cked...usually open up a case of beer on the patio and contemplate the entire panorama. They eventually come to decide that they don't want a 'Jesus-like' figure as President.....they want someone who seems to be blazing a different path, and bridges are left standing after they cross them. These people reach a point where they hate the 'drama', and they can find the 'mute-button' in two seconds flat.
You'd like some form of 'Jesus' to arrive and just reset all this drama, and resolve things.
You'd like for Covid-19 to quietly disappear as quickly as it arrived.
You'd like for the Antifa kids to find real work, pay taxes, and clean up the neighborhoods they burnt to the ground.
You'd like for CNN to go for an entire week without uttering the word 'Trump'.
You'd like for the NBA, NFL and MLB to just center their efforts on sports and not some passion unrelated to sports.
You'd like to walk into a Piggly Wiggly without a mask, and greet Hector in the fruit department, who'd remind you of your youth when you had passion to do your job and pump you up on fantastic fruit desert ideas.
You'd like to drive home without having to encounter some idiot policeman who marginally can perform his job.
So, here's the ten things you ought to consider:
1. You can't resolve the bad cop business without dumping the union business, forcing DA's to do their jobs, and having public accountability out in front of the general population.
2. Happy people are typically people who have jobs, thrive on advancement, and don't have ridiculous taxation issues.
3. Colleges that aren't educating your kid, but charging you almost $25k a year for indoctrination.....probably aren't colleges.
4. It might be more helpful if the House and Senate were limited to seven months a year of service in DC, and forced to return home every August.
5. People running around and hyped up on revolution....probably wouldn't survive more than seven days in a real revolution.
6. If your chief political 'Jesus' has a resume that fits on a 5 x 7 inch index card....they probably haven't done much in life.
7. Professional sports without fans in the arena or stadium.....probably won't survive more than a season or two.
8. If you really like socialism that much.....go spend a year in Denmark, Iceland or Finland. Come back and tell us how it was.....or just stay there.
9. The true limitation of Kaepernick....if you think about the entire landscape....the new coach wanted a multi-talented and multi-skilled player, which he simply wasn't developed to fit into that type of style or play.
10. Finally, people who do feel f**cked...usually open up a case of beer on the patio and contemplate the entire panorama. They eventually come to decide that they don't want a 'Jesus-like' figure as President.....they want someone who seems to be blazing a different path, and bridges are left standing after they cross them. These people reach a point where they hate the 'drama', and they can find the 'mute-button' in two seconds flat.
VP Chatter
Typically, for the past 200-odd years....whoever was selected as a VP candidate for either party....was mostly an unknown figure in 49 states.
That probably changed when Reagan selected Bush I....with some insiders knowing Bush I's background via the CIA. Bill Clinton did go with Al Gore, who probably was marginally known throughout the south, but not exactly a national figure. Bush II with Cheney? Significantly popular with the Reagan crowd and nationally known. Hillary Clinton with Senator Tim Kaine? If you watched C-S**n, you knew the guy but one would imagine fewer than one out of ten voters for Hillary had any real knowledge of Kaine.
You typically pick a person who has no scandals, no negativity, and could bring you their state. At least that was the set of rules prior to the last decade.
With Harris? It's a no-gain, no-loss situation. She's marginally capable at debates....fairly 'wooden'....known as a 'law and order' prosecutor for SF and California.....but beyond that....nothing significant. In simple terms, it's a resume that fits on a 5x7 inch index card. On the negative side, she's mostly known in the 'oral-way' for being helpful with the former mayor of SF. The less said on this matter....the better off.
If Joe Biden is bad-off with dementia....does this add-on of Harris help? It would be questionable to say that.
So finally, you come to working-class Democrats....beyond the urban zones. Most would not see Harris in any great positive light, and it probably doesn't guarantee 90-percent of all black votes returning to vote for Joe Biden. This 36-percent group of blacks for Trump? You can probably stamp it official now.
I'm more or less sticking with a zero net-gain and zero net-loss. Joe could have done better, but this is a screwed up year for old-fashioned regular working-class Democrats.
That probably changed when Reagan selected Bush I....with some insiders knowing Bush I's background via the CIA. Bill Clinton did go with Al Gore, who probably was marginally known throughout the south, but not exactly a national figure. Bush II with Cheney? Significantly popular with the Reagan crowd and nationally known. Hillary Clinton with Senator Tim Kaine? If you watched C-S**n, you knew the guy but one would imagine fewer than one out of ten voters for Hillary had any real knowledge of Kaine.
You typically pick a person who has no scandals, no negativity, and could bring you their state. At least that was the set of rules prior to the last decade.
With Harris? It's a no-gain, no-loss situation. She's marginally capable at debates....fairly 'wooden'....known as a 'law and order' prosecutor for SF and California.....but beyond that....nothing significant. In simple terms, it's a resume that fits on a 5x7 inch index card. On the negative side, she's mostly known in the 'oral-way' for being helpful with the former mayor of SF. The less said on this matter....the better off.
If Joe Biden is bad-off with dementia....does this add-on of Harris help? It would be questionable to say that.
So finally, you come to working-class Democrats....beyond the urban zones. Most would not see Harris in any great positive light, and it probably doesn't guarantee 90-percent of all black votes returning to vote for Joe Biden. This 36-percent group of blacks for Trump? You can probably stamp it official now.
I'm more or less sticking with a zero net-gain and zero net-loss. Joe could have done better, but this is a screwed up year for old-fashioned regular working-class Democrats.
Tuesday 11 August 2020
The Truth to Looting
“That is reparations. Anything they wanted to take, they can take it because these businesses have insurance."
-- Response from Chicago BLM organizer on the looting situation
So this is what 'really' happens, for the benefit of any BLM supporter.
X-company has a store in Chicago on the 'high-side'....meaning 300 employees in the store, and it turns a tidy profit/tax revenue situation for the city.
You arrange a looting situation. The store-front is destroyed, and the bulk of contents are stolen. Total damage? By the time, you resolve the doors and windows, then turn to lost merchandise.....it's between 2 and 3 million. If additional things (like the elevators or fire-sprinkler system) were damaged, then you can add another one to two million on top of the first estimate.
Time lost while repairs take place and zero profit for two weeks take place? That's usually an insurance item as well.
So here's the neat thing....toward December, the insurance company looks at 2021 and hands you the cost for the year ahead. You can figure as a minimum....your insurance went up 20-percent. If there's some chatter about defunding the police or this type thing occurring a second time? You can figure a 50-percent rise in insurance.
How do they pay for the insurance? Normally, they'd pass the bill to consumers/shoppers.
But in this case, the store will ask for a face-to-face meeting with the police and try to determine the odds of this happening again. The police will ask the city council for advice. Basically, no one will say anything to comfort the store.
Adding to the price of underwear? This is a stupid argument. So you market high-cost underwear....the special stuff....$32 for three pairs of underwear (for you Wal-Mart fans, their regular stuff from Mexico would be $7.50 for three pair).
But to meet the new insurance game....the $32 pack of underwear will go to $34. 50. Oddly enough.....at 300 miles away at another store (same brand-name)....the underwear is still $32.
In this case, the store evaluates the situation....why stay in Chicago? You discover 40 miles away.....in some town like St Charles or Aurora...they've got this upscale mall idea being floated around. The city promises to have an actual police department headquarters at the end of the mall, with thirty full-time private security guys walking around as part of their support staff. They even promise an aggressive DA and won't settle for letting people off the hook.
So the store agrees to stay in Chicago for two years, but then plans to exit. The jobs? Lost to Chicago. The city sales tax? Lost to Chicago. Other stores in the district get interested in this, and then vacate downtown. Hotel managers are now talking to the mayor and asking.....is downtown Chicago 'dying'?
The insurance side of this whole discussion? You actually dissolved jobs, sales tax, and made Chicago a lesser place. I know you think of this in terms of reparations.....but in the end....the jobs and sales tax left the city....so what do you think will happen to people in Chicago? Screwed.....big-time.
Gettysburg
The 'rumor' is that Trump will pick Gettysburg to announce his acceptance for the Republican nomination.
If you sit and ponder upon Gettysburg as a choice, you need to reflect what the significance of Gettysburg is about. It's a National Park that I'd strongly recommend....requiring probably 12 hours to take in the historical introduction, the tour of the battleground and look over the memorials.
Gettysburg is the beginning of the end for the Confederacy and slavery. Four and a half months will pass after this battle....when Lincoln goes to the battleground and delivers a short but significant speech.
Trump will probably address the woes of the Coronavirus, the economic stumble, the riots, and the lack of progress with the House. It might be one of his top three speeches of all time.
If you sit and ponder upon Gettysburg as a choice, you need to reflect what the significance of Gettysburg is about. It's a National Park that I'd strongly recommend....requiring probably 12 hours to take in the historical introduction, the tour of the battleground and look over the memorials.
Gettysburg is the beginning of the end for the Confederacy and slavery. Four and a half months will pass after this battle....when Lincoln goes to the battleground and delivers a short but significant speech.
Trump will probably address the woes of the Coronavirus, the economic stumble, the riots, and the lack of progress with the House. It might be one of his top three speeches of all time.
Sunday 9 August 2020
Dates That Matter For The Election
3 November: Election Day
14 December: Electoral College Day
3 January 2021: Day that the House of Representatives Convenes.
3 - 7 January 2021: Tabulation of the Electoral College votes must be accomplished by both the House/Senate.
Can anything take place between 14 December and 3 January, if the EC is a failure? The House could convene in this holiday period, and have a committee to investigate the failures of various states to complete their 'count'. States may or may not comply. Timing this with Christmas is also an issue.
Pelosi trying to get to a closure point? Basically, once a state admits that 5-percent of the ballots have been disqualified and lawsuits start flying, there's nothing that Pelosi can do....to improve the situation.
Adding to this frustration....all 435 House seats are in a questionable area, with perhaps a dozen states refusing to sign a completion, and those House members unable to reach DC to perform their duty. This also, will draw court activity and the Supreme Court likely to get into the middle.
The possibility that the Republicans win an edge but have 30-odd members in 'limbo' waiting on their state to sign off? Can you appoint a House Majority leader or Chairman with the lacking members?
The odds that we reach 20 January without a President approved by the House method?
14 December: Electoral College Day
3 January 2021: Day that the House of Representatives Convenes.
3 - 7 January 2021: Tabulation of the Electoral College votes must be accomplished by both the House/Senate.
Can anything take place between 14 December and 3 January, if the EC is a failure? The House could convene in this holiday period, and have a committee to investigate the failures of various states to complete their 'count'. States may or may not comply. Timing this with Christmas is also an issue.
Pelosi trying to get to a closure point? Basically, once a state admits that 5-percent of the ballots have been disqualified and lawsuits start flying, there's nothing that Pelosi can do....to improve the situation.
Adding to this frustration....all 435 House seats are in a questionable area, with perhaps a dozen states refusing to sign a completion, and those House members unable to reach DC to perform their duty. This also, will draw court activity and the Supreme Court likely to get into the middle.
The possibility that the Republicans win an edge but have 30-odd members in 'limbo' waiting on their state to sign off? Can you appoint a House Majority leader or Chairman with the lacking members?
The odds that we reach 20 January without a President approved by the House method?
Saturday 8 August 2020
Grill With Bio Charcoal-Like Material?
Bio charcoal.
So the deal? Corn cobs. A good burn? I paused and just wondered over this. Normally, it simply isn't what you'd go and put on a grill for steaks. It is natural and bio....I would assume.
Beyond that....a question mark.
It's All Peaceful
This morning, I sat and watched a press conference with Trump....which had guests who were not in social distancing. Yes, it was obvious....even watching the piece that Covid rules were not practiced.
So the news people were there and got a chance to throw questions at Trump.
Then it came, with the one journalist asking...."Just in this room, you have dozens of people who are not following the guidelines."
Trump says: "It's a peaceful protest."
Yep, he's figured out every single angle to the news 'game' and it's just 3rd grade math to him.
And for the anti-Trump folks, their hopes are bundled up into Joe Biden somehow delivering an near impossible task.
So the news people were there and got a chance to throw questions at Trump.
Then it came, with the one journalist asking...."Just in this room, you have dozens of people who are not following the guidelines."
Trump says: "It's a peaceful protest."
Yep, he's figured out every single angle to the news 'game' and it's just 3rd grade math to him.
And for the anti-Trump folks, their hopes are bundled up into Joe Biden somehow delivering an near impossible task.
Build - Back - Better?
"Once this pandemic is over, we can’t go back to the way things were.
We need to #BuildBackBetter.
@JoeBiden has a plan to do that. He’ll revitalize American manufacturing and create millions of good-paying jobs, ensuring the future is made in America—by all of America."
- Senator Harris, potential candidate for VP (under Joe Biden)
I sat and read her comment. Basically, it reads like MAGA (Make America Great Again). We know that this is not possible, because this was Trump's vision and plan.
The worry here by the Democratic Party? With all the Covid-19 business....there has to be some conclusion, and people put back to work.
Thursday 6 August 2020
A Little Life Experience
For about a year in my life, I worked with a Taiwanese-American (born in the US from parents who immigrated to the US in the late 1980s). He was married to a Taiwanese-American as well (same story with her parents).
As each week went by, you'd come to notice little things about economics, balancing budgets, frugal ways, and disciplined spending.
His wife had him on a simple $10 a week budget...enough to buy a daily paper, a cup of coffee, and on rare occasions a soda (it had to be via our cheapo snacko fund...the 40-cent Coke from the Commissary).
His wife drove him to work, and dropped him off.
Nothing was ever dry-cleaned except his combo-one jacket and slacks. Everything else....the wife washed and pressed for him.
Each morning, she prepared a lunch-bag....some fruit, a cup of noodles, and occasionally some Taiwanese sweet bread treat.
The family car had been a careful decision.....something without maintenance issues and had to have good gas mileage.
Any purchase situation requiring more than $100 had to be met upon by the two and mutually agreed upon. Either could veto the purchase.
After about six months of this....I sat one afternoon and had a 45-minute chat about this lifestyle. He pointed out....his parents did the same logical sense of economics. He was 'blessed' as a kid.....getting all of these important lessons. Via the Air Force college program, he'd spent very little of his parents money on college. He'd gone to a respectful university but nothing outrageous on cost.
All of this was built into his thinking process. He was geared to get ahead.....as was his wife. I asked if it was possible for a Taiwanese guy to have a high-maintenance wife, and he just started laughing.....for him, this meant the wife buying a single pair of $100 Nike jogging shoes, which was something that she'd never do.
These are people who'd never waste $200 on a tattoo, $40k on an expensive car, or go on a luxury week-long tour of NY City. These are also people who'd never spend $300 on a weekend binge of cocaine, throw out $12k on a bass-boat, spend $150 on a hooker, or spend more than $10 on a baseball game entry ticket (taking their own popcorn along to snack on).
A couple of years later, I came across a South Korean-American, and it was basically the same way. He'd admit that once a month he'd buy a $3 lotto card....which he never told the wife about (she'd freak out over that habit).
There is something here that we all might want to learn about, and educate ourselves upon.
As each week went by, you'd come to notice little things about economics, balancing budgets, frugal ways, and disciplined spending.
His wife had him on a simple $10 a week budget...enough to buy a daily paper, a cup of coffee, and on rare occasions a soda (it had to be via our cheapo snacko fund...the 40-cent Coke from the Commissary).
His wife drove him to work, and dropped him off.
Nothing was ever dry-cleaned except his combo-one jacket and slacks. Everything else....the wife washed and pressed for him.
Each morning, she prepared a lunch-bag....some fruit, a cup of noodles, and occasionally some Taiwanese sweet bread treat.
The family car had been a careful decision.....something without maintenance issues and had to have good gas mileage.
Any purchase situation requiring more than $100 had to be met upon by the two and mutually agreed upon. Either could veto the purchase.
After about six months of this....I sat one afternoon and had a 45-minute chat about this lifestyle. He pointed out....his parents did the same logical sense of economics. He was 'blessed' as a kid.....getting all of these important lessons. Via the Air Force college program, he'd spent very little of his parents money on college. He'd gone to a respectful university but nothing outrageous on cost.
All of this was built into his thinking process. He was geared to get ahead.....as was his wife. I asked if it was possible for a Taiwanese guy to have a high-maintenance wife, and he just started laughing.....for him, this meant the wife buying a single pair of $100 Nike jogging shoes, which was something that she'd never do.
These are people who'd never waste $200 on a tattoo, $40k on an expensive car, or go on a luxury week-long tour of NY City. These are also people who'd never spend $300 on a weekend binge of cocaine, throw out $12k on a bass-boat, spend $150 on a hooker, or spend more than $10 on a baseball game entry ticket (taking their own popcorn along to snack on).
A couple of years later, I came across a South Korean-American, and it was basically the same way. He'd admit that once a month he'd buy a $3 lotto card....which he never told the wife about (she'd freak out over that habit).
There is something here that we all might want to learn about, and educate ourselves upon.
White Advantage Doesn't Exist
Being an average white American....really doesn't get you ahead. And for blacks trying to make a point....all of these Asian and Indian groups have something going for them.
Even Filipino folks make more in terms of a household income. It begs questions.
Voting Story
I noticed this in the news this morning....via the Washington Examiner.
Most developed countries in the world....DON'T approve of mail-in ballots. Most European countries ban it (unless you are based or stationed outside of the border).
How bungled-up will this become? After the smoke clears (in the spring of 2021), I suspect a House/Senate effort will occur where a dozen voting problems will be corrected.
Mail-in ballots? Gone.
Absentee ballots? Tighten to the extreme. If you are overseas, as military, you might still get the system to work.
National ID card started? I would imagine the odds are now above 50-percent that it'll occur before the 2022 election.
Most developed countries in the world....DON'T approve of mail-in ballots. Most European countries ban it (unless you are based or stationed outside of the border).
How bungled-up will this become? After the smoke clears (in the spring of 2021), I suspect a House/Senate effort will occur where a dozen voting problems will be corrected.
Mail-in ballots? Gone.
Absentee ballots? Tighten to the extreme. If you are overseas, as military, you might still get the system to work.
National ID card started? I would imagine the odds are now above 50-percent that it'll occur before the 2022 election.
Tuesday 4 August 2020
Scenario Chat
My five likely scenarios:
1. Joe Biden has a fake heart-attack or admits dementia issues by 3rd week of August, and VP takes over. I've believed in this scenario for four months now. Joe's reality world has probably shrunk by 25-percent since January.
2. The mail-in-ballot episode becomes so screwed up....that in ten states....they cannot conclude the count by the Electoral College deadline....meaning those votes don't count from the ten states. This triggers the House to attempt to meet in mid-January....only to discover that 30 to 50 of the House members have still not been proclaimed victors yet (most being Republican).
3. The first debate goes so badly for Joe Biden, that the rest are cancelled and around 20-percent of Democrats openly blame the DNC for allowing this 'game' to reach this level and put them into a laughable election cycle.
4. California, Oregon, Washington and Nevada (in early December) go off to suggest that you can't have the EC count or the House 'back-up' method, until all votes are counted....suggesting that it may take three months to reach a conclusion (suggesting late March before the counts can be counted). The four states talking about succeeding from the Union unless they are 'respected'.
5. Finally, I have this scenario where new incoming House members (in early January) from the Democratic Party....refuse to participate and stall the House 'back-up' method, attempting to use the Supreme Court as a vehicle to prevent any election of the President.
If you thought things were screwed up presently.....just wait.
Monday 3 August 2020
The Varied Groups
Imagine taking the KKK, Antifa, Communist Revolutionaries, the Brownshirts, Abul Nida, ISIS, Charles Manson, the Red Brigades, and the Shining Path out of Peru....bundling them altogether and getting what you see in the US presently...in Portland and Seattle.
It is a wide collection of people with varying agendas and seeming to be waiting on the great revolution to occur, and capitalism to fall apart.
Static Memory
The average person is exposed to more information in a day the a person in the 1700s would face in a year.
-- Brian Roemmele
I saw this today and would even go as far as saying that the amount of information you consume in an entire life in the late 1700s....would probably equal what you go through in a month of your present lifestime.
Information overload? That's something that I tend to find curious. Someone did a survey in 2016 to find that most people had no real recognition of the vast majority of news from a previous week. Whatever was consumed....was flushed out within days.
I worked in a vaulted area which had a hundred-odd mechanisms and power panels. There were probably over 200 3x5 inch cards of information that I had to retain about vault door, the security alarms, the way that cables came into the facility, and differing aspects to daily operations. For a guy in the 1700s, this would have been near-impossible to retain or remember.
But the more I thought about the farmer in the 1700s.....the more I realized that he retained as much information as I do today.
He knew the various vegetables and fruits that he grew on the farm....when planting mattered or harvesting would occur. He knew every medical issue that a mule would have or a cow. His wife had over 500 bits of knowledge over practical day-to-day medical procedures.
So the truth of the matter is that we've swapped memory around, and certain things don't matter anymore, while other things matter a great deal.
Sunday 2 August 2020
Political Scenario
If the Electoral College 'fails' to elect a President, then we go to a 20 January to have a state by state vote in the House.
So there's this interesting scenario.....the House officially ends with the old group on 3 January 2021. On the 4th, the winners of the election will arrive.
Some states will be debated and it's possible that you might have a couple of seats empty because the states haven't finalized the vote. It's also possible that twenty to thirty members might not be there because of a strategy by states to recognize the winners in various elections. It's even possible that one party might start this 'game' and the other party gets into it as well.
On 20 January, a new House Speaker would be elected. It's possible that a major fight brews up out of this mess, and no one can get the votes necessary. Normally, if the President's office is not yet determined (by the Constitution), then the House Speaker would temporarily hold the office until the state-by-state voting occurs.
So if you thought that we had a pretty big mess now....it's conceivable that the mess is ten times the current mess in January.
Saturday 1 August 2020
The Simple Truth About Sports
At some point around 1839.....New England kids took 'rounders' (a British sport) and cricket (another Brit sport) and combined them into baseball.
Chief drive behind this? Entertainment.
Over the decades, various other sports started out....purely as entertainment.
Golf, tennis, basketball, football, volleyball, roller-derby and so on......all came for the purpose of entertainment.
We paid money to watch the sports....in exchange for entertainment.
This current trend? Making sports into a cult-like device, where one gets a lecture on politics or social ideals? It's not entertainment, and basically....we were already getting that nightly via MSNBC, CNN and Fox.
Just a gut feeling, but most of these sports-turned-non-entertainment situations....are probably going to dive on profits, and the millionaire players are going to be asking why salary structures are torn apart in a matter of six to twelve months.
At that point, people will bring the fact....we just wanted entertainment, and nothing else.
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