Odds of Joe Biden 'Not' Running in the Primary of 2024?

 Six months ago, I would have said 99.9-percent that Joe Biden would run in the primary, with RFK being one of the few going against him.

In the past month, if you view campaign chatter, people showing up at Joe's rallies, the cocaine business, and continual suggestions of bribes....the news folks are having a problem in convincing the public of avoiding skepticism over Joe's campaign. 

So, who are the likely 'dark-horses' to appear (besides RFK)?

First, there's Governor Newsom of California.  He's go problems because of the exit issues going on in the state.

Second, is VP Harris....who simply doesn't have positive numbers with the general public.

Third, Stacy Abrams, I believe....has a long-shot at the situation.

Fourth, Mayor-Pete, another long-shot.

Fifth, Governor Whitmer of Michigan.

Sixth, Michelle Obama.

The general problem, when compared to past elections?  Skepticism.  If you add up numbers of people reading the NY Times, WaPo, or viewing CNN...it's pretty crappy.  

Avoidance of debates?  The problem here.....for the DNC to keep RFK out of the 'light'....you'd have to have someone to quickly 'waltz in' and take Joe's numbers, and then keep insisting there is no necessity for debate or having a other people in the race.

RFK attracting attention from independent voters?  Well....that's a big problem now.  

The Democrats need the independent voters in November, but not in the primary.

Can Trump win the primary with three-quarters of the independent voters skipping his primary episode, and going to RFK's vote?  I'd say yes. 

In some funny way, I think Biden is now in a must-run situation.  But polling by the fall will reflect RFK probably tied or passing Biden.  So then what?  Would Biden step aside in January and admit he can't win the primary?  That is the big question.  

Ambien Use?

 I sat and spent an hour this AM....reading over Ambien use.

So, first....on a generally empty stomach....you could have general hallucinations for up to seven hours.  What you might imagine?  Oh....there's a thousand different possibilities there.

Panic attacks?  Yeah....that's a symptom.

Uncontrollable emotions...like crying?  Yeah.

Being irrational or irritable?  Yeah.

Dizzy and leading to falls?  Yeah.

Waking up in the middle of something, then having no real memory of the past twenty minutes?  Yeah.

Why I bring this up?  I think a lot of people who travel on two-to-three hour flights....take the drug, mostly to sleep the whole trip.  I think some might nod off....to go into a sleep-phase....doing stupid stuff and never realizing it. 

Ten Observations

 1.  This release by Facebook/META of 'Threads'?  Based on design....oddly, it's a bit like 'WhatsApp', but you are allowed 500 letters, and can attach up to a five-minute video.  

Also like Twitter?  Yeah, that's the amusing thing.  

Also like Facebook, itself?  Yeah.

Also like Instagram?  Yeah.

A copy of a copy of a copy?  Yeah, remarkably so.

Big deal?  Well...in some way, I think that WhatsApp will be given a 'end-date', and you would have to move onto 'Threads' (little choice).

Now, I will say this....in Germany, around 85-percent of the public use WhatsApp, and the vast majority would probably prefer not dumping it for anything else.  It'll cause a lot of heartburn if this 'dumping' is suggested.  'Telegram Messenger' likely to be the alternate solution if this scenario comes true. 

The Twitter legal action?  The fact that Facebook hired fired Twitter employees?  That made the court action more predictable.  It'll take two years but eventually...Facebook will be told they screwed up, and Twitter will demand that 'Threads' to be taken down.

2.  The BIG Biden rally in South Carolina?  I saw the video approximately ten minutes before the event started.  Indoors....I'd say a max of 500 people were there, and there were obviously empty seats in the rear.

3.  You noticed that the location of the White House cocaine....has changed a 3rd time?  Just odd....the story never stops evolving.

4.  Quote by VP Harris yesterday: "Culture is — it is a reflection of our moment and our time. Right? And present culture is the way we express how we're feeling about the moment and we should always find times to express how we feel about the moment..."

Confusing?  Yeah.  Something that your 6-year-old niece would say.

5.  Pence's campaign?  Moving forward like a 'dead-horse'.

6.  Secret Service says no matter what....they will close the file on the cocaine at the White House by middle of next week.  The odds that this will be a summary page, with over sixty people interviewed (none named Hunter).

7.  'Certain people might be offended.'

I've heard this phrase at least five-hundred times in the past year.  There must be at least 300-million Americans in this category now.

8.  Just odd.....in the build-up to the Kentucky election....the Democratic guy running for state attorney general....isn't licensed as a lawyer in the state.  

9.  Oddly enough, I noticed that Michigan's governor (Whitmer) has come up on a 'dark-horse' list of folks to enter the primary against Biden.  

10.  If you asked a hundred people to define a 'loser'....I think we have reached a point where half of them would be unable to answer the question.