The US Economic Decline That Fits No Past Example

 I follow commerce, industry, technology developments, economic trends, and social changes.  I tend to compare our times against 1929-to-1941, and 2008.  

Banking-wise, lot of bank hold loans for office space....that can't be rented or sold for past value (meaning you bought a mall structure for $20-million in 2005 and it's value to sell today is $2-million).  A lot of this in California?  There's reporting to indicate a fair sum is there....but it's in Portland, Seattle, NYC, Philly,  Denver and non-southern regions.

Kids (ages 18 to 30)....happy to be unemployed and living in the parent's house?  Yeah, that's an odd trend.

Folks approaching 65 and shaking with rage over the pension deal?  Probably a all-time high number.

Kids wrapping up college....with a worthless degree and owing $100k on college loan debt?

Cars/trucks unaffordable to buy?  Home-buying trend downward?  Condo's being worthless to sell?  

If I started to list all of the issues/problem.....it'd go past 100, and nothing fits 2008 or the depression-era.

Hobo-2026-era  You can list out how things were in the 1930s, and oddly....we fit to the image in various ways.

Were we already in 2008 heading down this path?  I'm inclined to say that the past 20 years were in someway a 'path' leading to the current mess.

2028 and after the Trump era?  That's one of forty-odd questions that I would start to ask, and wonder about stability and economical trends.  If you were offering Democratic candidates like Newsom or AOC....I'd shake my head and suggest that they were Huey Long-like candidates (1936) and not helpful for what has to be done.

Personal bankruptcy flow?  2026 is a problem to discuss.  Business type bankruptcy flow....600k at this point, and likely to hit 1-million by 1 January 2027.

Adding AI to future job losses?  Just another spiral waiting to occur.

There is some end-point....but it won't be in 2026 or 2027.  

Stars and Stripes Firings

So....from last week....an odd story.

 Stars and Stripes (the DoW newspaper)....got a episode of firings.

The three let-go?

Erik Slavin, editor-in-chief  

Max D. Lederer Jr., publisher

Lara Korte (Middle East reporter)

What this was about?  They gave an interview to CBS, and said....they weren't 'tools' of the Pentagon or of political control.  

Well....they are fully employed by the DoW and Pentagon.

Did they simply not grasp this?  Maybe....if in a bubble....you might believe that.

Paramour

Back about nine years ago....in my home state (Ala)....the governor had finally resigned.

What can be said is that Robert Bentley (Republican) was a small-time state legislature guy, and fairly successful in his life at the medical business.  

Somewhere around age 65, he'd met up with a couple from his church who felt he had the 'right stuff' to be governor.  With their help, he ran.....got elected....and brought the couple into jobs within the state office.  The gal was hired to a $400,000-plus job and the husband in a similar but less paying job. What developed was some girlfriend situation with the gal, and eventually....Bentley's wife figured out the whole thing (divorcing him).  It would be safe to say that Bentley was not really the governor.....and that this girlfriend was pressing the right buttons to ensure things happen.

So we come to this reporting of the event.  Depending on who you read....the girlfriend is described as a: paramour, kept woman, beau, mistress, concubine, sugar, main squeeze, doxy, or 'other woman'.

If you are from Alabama.....typically, you'd use 'other woman', sugar, mistress, or kept woman.  The W-word might also be used but not in front of Baptists.

If you used the word paramour, I would take a guess that 90-percent of folks from Alabama have no idea what it is, or what it means.  Some might suggest that it's a French pastry, or some town near Fairhope.  I would take a guess that out of the whole state.....less than 3,000 folks speak French or would easily recognize the word.

My brother (the engineer) might have some knowledge of the word....but only because he read the Three Musketeers two or three times, and a bunch of the characters were having paramour situations.

The governor?  I'm pretty confident that he'd use the word sugar.

All this lusty talk kinda unsettles the typical Alabama guy.  It'd normally be something that you didn't talk about....settling instead on NCAA football, bass fishing, pick-ups, septic tank replacement, garage advice, beef prices, the Braves, Kenny Rogers tunes, and Trump.

The 45,000 Alabama guys with paramours?  Well....they watched things unfold, and wondered about their situation.

What I think will develop out of this whole Bentley and paramour thing is that folks will begin to see Alabama as the lusty state with a bunch of paramour activities.  Some Bama folks will hate the aspect of a lusty state....but it'd bring in more tourists and generate more jobs..  Maybe eventually, we'd even make a car-tag referring to Alabama as the paramour-state.  Well....maybe.

Now, You Took What Route Chatter

 I grew up in rural Alabama, and my dad would take me along to visit relatives.  Some lived nearby and this topic never came up.  But those who were 200 to 500 miles away....somewhere in the first twenty minutes of talk....the route would come up.  They'd want to know if you took the interstate, or went by state highway 55, or such.

At some point, I started to note that my dad was more intent on map use, and would go a slightly different route on occasion.  I'm not saying it's shorter or a better route....just that it'd open up the conversation to the idea that they never considered country-road 11 or the route through the national forest.  

I got into a talk once in the 1990s....with two Air Force guys.....one from California (central region) and one from rural Iowa.  Same route chatter.  The California guy indicated this was much more intense there....while the Iowa guy admitted over a 200-mile path....there was only route-A, route-B, or route-C.

Somewhere around the 8th grade, we had a English class where you had write a brief description of where you lived from the school....usually meaning four changes of path...over a 15 minute drive. Yeah, it was a speech....more or less.  For about a week, this had been a talked-about project.  

We had this kid in the class...'Timmy'....who was looking for a 'A'-level description (the winner of the route 'talk').   

He discussed the matter with me, and I suggested....there were sixty different ways of getting to his house (something he'd never imagined).  Monday came with the task to give a talk (Teacher had figured 12 people per class) and we'd do this over Monday and Tuesday.  

Well....Timmy got up first, and gave a 15-minute summary of 50-mile path to his house (instead of the 3-mile, 60 second version). Yeah, he took you on a 'journey'....describing each bridge....each burger-joint....each gas station....each 'marker'.  

We had to extend the 'talk' stuff into Wednesday because of Timmy.

After this....I came to realize that there's always various ways of getting places, and the chatter is more of a saga....than anything else, if you make it like a Steinbeck novel.

If A Story Seems Bogus/Fake?

 I have six general rules to apply against somewhat fake/bogus stories:

First....where did this start....who first reported it?

Second....are there parts of the story that seem vague?

Third....there has to be a timeline.  If it's marginal or non-existent....the story is fake.

Fourth....how much emotional manipulation exists?  

Fifth....are there missing details?  Did they leave out part of the overall story?

Sixth...does the follow-up story even exist, or does the story just 'drop' within 24 hours?

Mark Walter And The Dodgers 'Landscape'?

 This week, I dug into understanding the scandal developing over the LA Dodgers (and the Lakers too....apparently).

So you have to go back to 2012 (it might even end up being five to ten years prior)....with this Mark Walter-guy buying up investment-type companies (mostly insurance companies).  

They have to invest money and get a 'return'.  For this reason....logically....they invest typically in sound practices.  

Well...Walter bought two companies, and counted on the gov't being 'lax'.  Delaware Life Insurance Company and its affiliate Clear Spring Life and Annuity....were the two.

So he rigged money 'borrowed' here from the two....into personal projects.  Oddly....none of this was disclosed as “related-party” transactions,  Yeah, it's a violation of law.  How much was loaned?  At least $16 billion....maybe on up to $20 billion.....with this part unclear presently.

The trend over the past decade?  Buying up the Dodgers, and Lakers (NBA).....with media outlets that seem connected to the two.

Exposure?  It would appear last year....some parts of the gimmick got exposed.  

Lakers? Walter sold a majority share of the Lakers that he owned....making around $2.5 billion in profit off his short-term ownership.  It would appear that he's trying to balance the books of the insurance companies, and the loans he's taken (to pay them off).

Fed mess?  As a minimum....grand jury hype will occur.  

Walter could probably pay off all the loans in the end (if he disposes of the Dodgers cleanly).

This whole discussion....part of the Major League Baseball spiral toward a strike at the end of this season?  Well...the Dodgers are drawing a lot of criticism over how they seem to have tons of money (maybe insurance capital money).

I come to this odd end conclusion....wondering about ninety-odd NFL, NBA, and MLB clubs and how they were acquired in the past ten to twenty years.  Could there be twenty to thirty clubs.....bought with more insurance or mutual fund capital....illegally?

Then I kinda wonder.....could some guys out there have $300,000 insurance policies....that they'd pass on (die), and the wife gets told....the insurance money can't flow very quickly....because it's tied up in the Dodgers, and the wife wondering....what the hell did 'Marvin' buy insurance-wise?

In a way....it's kinda funny.  

Complicated?  On my personal scale of 1-to-10.....complexity-wise....this is a '10'.

My Five Problems With The George Floyd Episode

From three years ago....it still sits upon my mind....

 1.  For the record, George Floyd was a 'regular' at the corner grocery.  On this morning of the event....he'd gone to buy a pack of cigarettes'.  You can figure the pack to cost in the $9 range.  He passes a $20-bill, and the clerk does a quick check to reveal that it's counterfeit.  Change never passes to Floyd...instead, the clerk asks for the smokes back.  Floyd refuses, and walks out the door.  The clerk then calls the police (perhaps in the presence of Floyd, but this is never really laid out). 

Oddly, to the police later....the clerk says George Floyd appeared out-of-focus....perhaps drunk.  This issue is never discussed ever again in court.   

Floyd's behavior?  He had to know the bill was a problem, but didn't care.  

2.  This all occurs around a few minutes before 8 AM. Clerk calls for the cops and they arrive at 8:08.  Where is George Floyd?  You would think that in this situation....you'd return to your vehicle, and get the hell out of sight.  Eight long minutes...99-percent of people would be a mile down the road in that period of time.

Floyd is sitting there in the vehicle....it hasn't moved in 8 minutes.  By the description that the two cops give....he's not focused or aware of anything much.  Maybe drunk....maybe on some drug?  Well....you have to wonder about this.

3.  At 8:10 AM.....two minutes into this encounter....some guy happens to pull up and have video running of the event unfolding.

Just odd....maybe it's a new trend with people....always video-taping everything they see.

4.  There's this one exchange between a policeman and Floyd.....where Floyd is described as erratic or acting weird.  From the moment that he exits the SUV....I don't think Floyd was in any control of his mental or physical being.

5.  So finally, Floyd and Chauvin meet.  They both work at the same 'club'....for several years.  They have to know each other.  You would think....in 99-percent of cases where you and a co-worker meet in a hyped-up situation....tense moments would have relaxed.  Yet you don't see that.  

This is an odd part of the story.  Chauvin could have eased Floyd's situation by a few comments....but you don't see that.  

It's an odd story to lay out.  No matter how you assemble the facts....Floyd had to be seriously unfocused and having something in his system that confused the hell out of him.  With or without the counterfeit bill or the cops arriving on the scene....he was in a uncontrolled manner, and certainly not in fit condition to drive a vehicle. 

 But going back to the $20-bill....where did it come from?  That question has never been answered. Had he just reached into his billfold....pulled out a legit $20....this whole thing would have never occurred.