Generational Iran

If you were in your 20s in Iran....in the 1950s....you sat there and watched the 1953 Iranian coup d'état (the 28 Mordad coup) unfold.  It basically involved the overthrow of the democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, and the strengthening of the monarchical rule of Shah Mohammad Reza.  You were told things would get 'better'.

This rigged up the Shah to be the focus of power (for the next 26 years).  Oddly, the common belief is that the Brits and Americans arranged the coup, and for all negativity over the 26 years....it's this group getting the four-star blame.

So  1979 and the Islamic Revolution comes around....you are in your late 50s, and  the Shah leaves....for the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to run things.  You are told....things will get better.

Twelve month pass....Iran now engages with Iraq on a war.  Total dead by 8th year of the war for Iran?  Minimum of 200,000......some suggest on up to 750,000.

What you notice by 1990....just about every single component of the government of Iran....is 'favored-son' status of Islamic guys....along every department of the government. 

You pass on in the 1990s, with your son (probably in his 50s)....seeing incompetence and corruption as key features of the local, state, and federal government.

By 2000, Tehran is suggesting there's a water issue....but they can't seem to find the solution, and grasp of some way of paying for it.

With all the oil being sold....it doesn't make any sense on how the general public has become.

Fantastic sums of money now being spent on terror operations (throughout the Middle East), nuke energy (mostly weapons development), and corruption.

By 2010....you are nearing the age of 70....about to pass away, and your son nears age 50....being told that things will get better.

This grandson....age 50....2010....quietly moves profits/currency out of Iran....no longer believing in anything  improving.  Iranian banks are in continual trouble.....no currency to loan out.

2026 arrives....you are passing on, and the great grandson of the original guy told things will get better....is now around age 50.

You are depending on some guy named Trump to dispense the solution....and the return of the Shah (his son and grandson).

All this cashflow from 1979 to today....where did it all go?  No one really knows.

Did anything ever get better?  No.

If you start in 1979.....roughly five-million Iranians exited the country...probably all admitting things got better (after they left).

Four Observations Over Iran

 1.  If you wrote a list of the top 400 Iranian national authorities (Mullahs included)....roughly 90-percent are dead as of today.  So I'd say....there is chaos brewing and a whole new crew thrust into jobs they probably aren't qualified for.

Their question?  Who do I surrender to?

2.  Trying to make the 'war' last six months (to the US mid-terms)?

I believe from whoever is still in power....this is the only goal left.....to hurt Trump enough.  Oddly, the same goal might exist for the Democratic Party itself.

But....this logic goes to the 1980s strategy....the 8-year war between Iran/Iraq.  

In that war....Iraq had around 3 strengths going into the conflict....with a dozen weaknesses....same for Iran.  In this case....US Admirals/Generals are playing the idea of making every marginal strength that Iran has.....into a collapsing weakness....in a matter of days.

3.  Fronts?

I'm of the mindset....there will be four fronts developing (shocking Iran's generals).  Kurds in NW.....Pakistan mounting a minor  limited front on the NE (carrying out defense obligations with Saudi Arabia)....US Marines on the far south (near the Hormuz area)....and some US Army front. 

Toss in Israel special operations personnel.....the war (at best).....lasts around ten days.  

4.  The biggest loser of the war?  

The UK.  

Iran, In The End

 In about six weeks....the end will exist....where Iran as one nation ceases, and you end up with three to four 'republics'.

My scenario?

Kurdish territory on the far NW....probably 10-percent of the country....ceded to Kurds.

SW Iran....ends up as a Arab-Lur ethnic region.....probably taking up 35-percent of the country.

Most of central region (includes Tehran) to the eastern border......reverts to Persians, and old name comes back.

The thugs and Mullahs?  Most attempt to disappear....finding Pakistan exceptionally unfriendly toward them, and things barely acceptable in Afghanistan.  The 'loot'.....the US tracks down the  bulk and returns it.

Persia ends up as a US-protected zone for a 3-year period. 

Nuke energy?  Accepted and watched over by the US.  

Terrorism by the end of 2026.....mostly gone from the face of the Earth.

Twenty Books I Recommend (For 1800-to-1860 Era)

Many Thousands Gone: The First Two Centuries of Slavery in North America by Ira Berlin (1998) – Examines slavery's evolution up to 1860. 

The Problem of Slavery in the Age of Revolution, 1770-1823 by David Brion Davis (1975) – Analyzes ideological shifts affecting antebellum slavery. 

American Slavery, American Freedom: The Ordeal of Colonial Virginia by Edmund S. Morgan (1975) – Roots of slavery extending into the 19th century. 

Empire for Slavery by Randolph B. Campbell (1989) – Slavery's role in Texas and the Southwest economy. 

American Economic Growth and Standards of Living before the Civil War edited by Robert E. Gallman and John Joseph Wallis (1992) – Quantitative analysis of pre-1860 economic expansion. 

The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business by Alfred D. Chandler (1977) – Rise of modern business practices from 1840 onward. 

From the American System to Mass Production, 1800-1932 by David A. Hounshell (1984) – Technological shifts in manufacturing and commerce. 

Technology and American Society by Gary Cross and Rick Szostak (1995) – Broader economic and technological changes. 

The Past and Future of America’s Economy by Robert D. Atkinson (2004) – Long-term view including antebellum commerce. 

Slavery, Capitalism, and Politics in the Antebellum Republic by John Ashworth (1995-2007, two volumes) – Economic ties between slavery and capitalism. 

Farm, Shop, Landing: The Rise of a Market Society in the Hudson Valley, 1780-1860 by Martin Bruegel (2002) – Regional economic transformation. 

The Farmer's Age: Agriculture 1815-1860 by Paul W. Gates (1960) – Comprehensive on agricultural growth. 

To Their Own Soil: Agriculture in the Antebellum North by Jeremy Atack and Fred Bateman (1987) – Northern farming practices. 

The American Farmer in the Eighteenth Century: A Social and Cultural History by Richard L. Bushman (2018) – Extends into early 1800s farming culture. 

Women at Work: The Transformation of Work and Community in Lowell, Massachusetts, 1826–1860 by Thomas Dublin (1979) – Rural-to-urban agricultural labor shifts. 

Agriculture and National Development: Views on the Nineteenth Century edited by Lou Ferleger (1990) – Broader agricultural policy. 

Democracy in America by Alexis de Tocqueville (1835) – Classic on American political systems. 

The Washington Community, 1800-1828 by James Sterling Young (1966) – Early DC political networks. 

The Rise and Fall of the American Whig Party by Michael F. Holt (1999) – Key political party dynamics. 

America's Great Debate by Fergus M. Bordewich (2012) – Compromise of 1850 and DC politics. 

The Impending Crisis: America Before the Civil War, 1848-1861 by David M. Potter (1976) – Political lead-up to war. 

Free Soil, Free Labor, Free Men: The Ideology of the Republican Party Before the Civil War by Eric Foner (1970) – Political ideologies. 

Battle Cry of Freedom: The Civil War Era by James M. McPherson (1988) – Comprehensive political history including 1850s. 

This Trump-Alien-UFO Chatter And Where It Leads Onto

 I have four concerns/issues over the hype that Trump is said to be close in laying out the alien/UFO/UAP story.

First, I'd like to know what treaties got signed in the 1950s by Eisenhower.  I don't think anyone with the knowledge of that situation...really wants to admit things.

Second, I'm curious how far China and Russia have gotten with the situation....as well as the Nazis of the 1930s/1940s.

Third, I'm about 99-percent sure a nuclear 'event' occurred on Mars.  After the 'mess'....I think whoever lived there....left, and that's probably the bulk of the 'guests' on Earth today.  If you ask the guests....this nuke-history is mostly why they are so anti-nuke.

Fourth, fear over the 'guests'?  Unless you come out and say they are cannibals....I don't think anyone will have serious issues.

Are We In A Civil War Era?

About seven years ago....I spent most of a year surveying/reading over the 1800-to-1860 era.  So I'm listing  today....12 similarities between the United States in the period from 1800 to 1860 (leading up to the Civil War) and modern times (around 2026):

1.Extreme Political Polarization.

1800s, the nation divided sharply between Northern and Southern interests, with parties like the Whigs (not yet Republicans) collapsing amid ideological rifts.  

Today....similar hyper-partisanship exists between red and blue states, with Democrats and Republicans seeing each other as existential threats.  Pure and simple demonization.

2.   Sectionalism and Regional Loyalties: 

1800s era saw exaggerated devotion to regional interests over national unity, with the North and South prioritizing their economic and cultural identities. Today, coastal urban areas clash with rural heartlands, fostering "red state" vs. "blue state" identities that undermine federal cohesion, just like the North-South divide. 

3.  Debates Over States' Rights vs. Federal Authority: 

Southern states in the 1800s championed states' rights to resist federal overreach on issues like tariffs and slavery expansion.  Today, states challenge federal mandates on topics like immigration, abortion, and gun laws, with actions like Texas's border policies echoing nullification crises. 

4. Economic Disparities Between Regions: 

1800's North benefited from protective tariffs that burdened the agricultural South, widening wealth gaps.  Today, economic divides pit prosperous tech-driven coasts against declining manufacturing and agricultural interiors, exacerbated by trade wars and globalization debates. 

5.  Cultural and Ideological Clashes: 

1800's cultural differences....includes urban vs. rural lifestyles and religious views, deepened mutual distrust between North and South. Today....disagreements  over education, sex rights, and religion create similar rifts, with urban liberals and rural conservatives seeing each other as culturally alien. 

6.  Rise of Extremist or Single-Issue Political Movements: 

1800's reform of the Republican Party as an anti-slavery force radicalized politics and accelerated division. Today?  Movements like far-right nationalism or progressive activism dominate, sidelining moderates and pushing parties toward extremes on issues like election integrity or social justice. 

7.  Immigration and Nativism Tensions: 

1800s nativism, fueled by immigration waves, contributed to party fractures like the Know-Nothings.  Today?  Debates over border security and migrant influxes mirror this, with anti-immigration sentiments dividing communities and parties along similar lines. 

8. Threats of Secession or Disunion: 1800s southern states threatened and enacted secession in 1860-1861 over perceived threats to their way of life.  Today...modern discussions of "national divorce" or state autonomy, especially in conservative areas, evoke this, with some viewing federal policies as intolerable overreach. 

9.  Contested Elections Sparking Crises: Abraham Lincoln's 1860 election, won without Southern support, triggered secession.  Today?  Recent elections, like 2020 and 2024, have led to disputes and events like January 6, 2021, where outcomes are seen as illegitimate by large segments, fueling ongoing unrest. 

10.  Violence and Social Unrest:  Events like Bleeding Kansas in the 1850s involved guerrilla warfare over territorial issues.  Today?  Protests, riots, and political violence, such as those in 2020 or ongoing clashes over policy.....parallel this, raising fears of escalation into broader conflict. 

11.  Loss of Faith in National Institutions: By 1860, distrust in Congress, the presidency, and the Supreme Court eroded unity.  Today?  In 2026, plummeting confidence in institutions like the federal government, media, and judiciary mirrors this, with accusations of bias and corruption deepening divides. 

12.  Nationalism Overriding Unity: Southern nationalism in the 1850s prioritized regional identity, leading to fragmentation. Today?  Modern American nationalism, often tied to "America First" or identity politics, similarly places factional loyalties above national compromise, risking further divisions.

Yeah, we are at 'war' but have yet to grasp that.

State of the Union Speech, and Democrat's Alternate Speech

 Four thoughts.

Man, 90 minutes long...probably the longest SotU ever.

Second, Gov Spanberger giving the alternate....several goof-up's and they were noticeable.  

Third, the whole thing is likely to be made up into November campaign pieces....supporting Republicans and demonizing Democrats.

Fourth, before Obama/Trump/Biden came along....this was pretty dull stuff.  Past 20 years?  Charged-up.