Friday 1 January 2021

Alabama Districts: 7 Down to 6?

The draft Census result is that Alabama will end up losing one 'seat' (district).  The result appears to be stalled and won't be confirmed until Biden steps into office.  The expectation?  The Alabama folks can start drawing the six districts right now.

So here's the odd deal of this.  Seven districts currently.....six controlled by the Republicans.  You add in....the state house and state senate....controlled by the Republicans.  

The 7th district?  It's the district with a Democratic sitting in the seat.  This district is mostly all center west Alabama (the Birmingham area).  It encompasses 10 countries completely, and four in the partial sense.  

Ethnic make-up?  Roughly two-thirds black. 

To be honest, except for one brief period in 1965, it's been a Democratic seat since 1899.  This 1895 to 1899 era?  A Populist-Party guy stood in.  Prior to that?  All Democratic since 1853.

My humble guess is that 7th District will be finely 'cut' and that'll end any Democratic Congressmen from the state.  

How Things May Go on Wednesday in DC

 First, I think the pro-Trump convey business will be into the tens of thousands of vehicles, and probably make DC a massive mess on traffic.  

I also think a minimum of 5,000 Antifa/BLM folks will show up and chaos will follow, with riot-action and possible civil conflict on the streets of DC.  

I don't think more than eight Republican Senators will make a stand for Trump, and the whole game ends at that point unless courts step in and toss out the state voting apparatus (particularly in the case of Georgia). 

I think that both Senator spots on 5 January will go to the Democrats...giving them a slight lead in the Senate.

So what emerges out of this mess....the next Presidential candidate to step into Trump's shoes in 2024.  Josh Hawley of Missouri.  He'll be the only one standing out on 6 January as a Trump-like character.

Hawley will be the one over the next four years to watch on a daily basis.