Thursday 5 November 2020

Observations

 1.  Two years ago, if you'd told me that the US might elect a dementia guy, with strong ties to money-laundering folks in Russia, China, and the Ukraine....and that his son was crackhead who was hired to arrange appointments for 'dad'....then telling me that his Vice would be a gal who moved up in her 20s by kneepad action for SF political figures....then I would have laughed and said it was BS.

2.  Jeff Bezos selling 3 billion dollars of Amazon stock?  Maybe setting things up to buy CNN?

3.  Hygiene teams wandering shopping districts in Germany.....hyping up good habits on avoiding Covid-19.

4.  If polls are this screwed up....why would we listen to them?

5.  Reflecting upon Fox News....it's probably time to dump them  News Max, ONE, and First TV....probably better choices.  

6. ESPN laying off 300 employees.  Maybe if they'd stuck to sports over the past three years....those folks would still be there.

7.  Trump won 45-percent of Latino vote in Florida.  

Puerto Rican State Status?

 One of the little things not openly discussed yesterday, from voting on Tuesday....the ballot on going for statehood in Puerto Rico occurred.  

The public voted 52 percent to go for statehood.

If you look at public opinion polls...up until mid-summer 2020....most islanders were neutral.  Since August?  It's gone to around 50-percent.

Next step?  They'd have to approach Congress and submit the paperwork.  What would they get?  Two Senators, and somewhere around five Representatives.  

Happening in 2021?  I would have my doubts.  It was marginally in 'yes' area.  The House delaying this for a minimum of two years?  Absolutely.  

The only situation?  Well....NO.  You see...Guam is approaching this same idea, with the adjacent area of the Mariana Islands wanting to be part of the package.  The Mariana group?  About 100 miles NE of Guam.  Population of the two?  Around 240k.  So they'd get the two Senators, but only get one single Representative.  

That's it?  NO.  You also have the DC statehood crowd, and they'd like to achieve status as well.  They'd get two Senators and one Representative.  

Likely nature of this?  Within ten years, I could see all three achieving this.  Is there room for six more Senators in the Senate floor?  That might be an issue.  Which states would give up seven House seats?  You'd be developing a huge mess for clean-up later.  

The Only Path Left

 For Trump, the path left is readily apparent.

His lawyers have to go and find various discrepancies throughout the system (not just one state, but probably five to ten states).  Upon presenting everything to the Supreme Court, the discussion will be....you have to throw out the count in these states. 

Once you admit fifty-odd EC votes don't exist....neither Joe Biden or Donald Trump can be elected via the Electoral College.  End of the game for that process.

So we progress to the House election method....the 3rd of January.  New House Speaker elected (likely to be Democrats in control).  I would question if Pelosi gets confirmed for another period.

Marginal efforts to occur for three weeks, and President Trump's era will close with no vote.  House Speaker would then assume the post because of the delays, with the Supreme Court ordering the Speaker (or replacement) to finally end this game and have the state-by-state vote.  26 will vote for Trump, and the 'game' ends.

For one brief day....the Speaker will likely serve as the President to make his or her point.

As comical as the scenario is....it's likely the path ahead.  So the game of getting a replacement judge on the Supreme Court was a necessary one.  

Civil war coming in mid-to-late January?  Yes.  The State-of-the-Union message?  Done mostly to a half-empty room.  Seattle, Minneapolis, Portland, and a dozen other cities on fire?  Probably.