The Way Things Go

 My German-wife made this comment, along about the 4th day of 'counting' on the US election.

Typically in Germany, you conduct an election on a Sunday...opening up the door around around 8 AM, and closing it at 6 PM.  Votes are counted, in front of witnesses, and by 7 PM usually....it's done on counting.  The number is called into the local district, and then sent on.

The folks back in the poll station?  They start cleaning up....stacking chairs, and putting the rooms back in order.

Along about 8:30, they finish up....walk over to the local pub....have a beer or cognac (maybe two or three), and then wander home.  I doubt in the past fifty years that anyone has lingered around counting past 8 PM.

So in her mind....there's something wrong if you are still there at midnight, and marginally into 30-percent of the vote so far.  

I assured her....we have computers, and they really speed up the process.  For some reason, she's not really believing my story.  

The Guy More Shocked Than Anyone Over This Election?

 Barak Obama.

Obama is sitting there....even in his best showing of 2012....his best showing, he got 8.9 million FEWER votes than Joe Biden from this past week.

There's not a hour that passes right now....that he doesn't have this thought, and wonder about the election.  

Then he walks over to this odd topic....more blacks and Latinos voted for Trump in this election, than in 2008 or 2012.  This means that fewer blacks and Latinos voted for Biden, but somehow....Joe found 'new' voters out there to make up for Obama's 'weakness'.  

Mountain Lion Chatter

As a kid growing up....one of my favorite movies (from theater visits) was a Disney production entitled 'Charlie, The Lonesome Cougar'.  Note, cougars are basically mountain lions.

At some point in 1969 (a year after release), it ran in the local region.  Rex Allen narrated the 'tale'.   Basically by the end, you felt charmed by Charlie, and he seemed almost 'friendly'.  

Friday of this past week, my brother noted that a neighbor of sorts there in Alabama had claimed he'd seen a Mountain Lion (mostly saying this over the length of the tale).  True or not?  Unknown.

Naturally, among locals....this has hyped up folks.  Some want to do hunting to ensure an end to the situation.  Alabama law?  It's kinda direct.....you aren't supposed to shoot or hunt the mountain lions.  The same folks will say that there's been no Mountain Lions around since the 1940s.  

I sat and pondered over this.

First, the worst thing you could do is go and name him/her.  If you name anything....terminating or ending it is virtually impossible.  If I were to name him, it'd have to be 'Marvin'.  

Second, statistically speaking....you have a better chance of finding gold laying around on your property, than being attacked by a Mountain Lion.

Third, Mountain Lions tend to like Raccoons (as a snack).  So if you had to this Raccoon problem....'Donald' would take care of your issue.

Fourth, folks in these parts for years have whined about Coyotes. They tend to say that Mexicans came into the region in the 1990s and brought the Coyotes as pets.  It's the biggest bunch of BS that you could possible dream up....but people have actually said that.  Mountain Lions also tend to like Coyotes (as a snack).  'Marvin' would again, take care of your issue.

So no matter how you discuss the matter.....the Mountain Lion seems to be more positive than negative.  Course, at 5 AM....you don't want to step out of your backdoor to discover 'Marvin' standing there and eating out of the cat-food tray.  

Folks occasionally need some excitement.  Well....'Marvin' has wandered in and will briefly be that.  

If the Electoral College Fails to Deliver?

 We basically go the  back-up plan....the Contingent Election.  

In this method, with the 20th Amendment (1933), the new incoming House would have a vote....state-by-state, to deliver the 'winner'.

Number of times that it's been used?  Three (1801, 1825, and 1837).

What happens if they start on 3 January, and cannot complete this by 20 January?  The law says that the Senate requirement of voting for a VP....would then trigger the VP to be a temp-President. 

If the Senate, by 20 January, has failed do it's job?  Then you go to the House Speaker being the temp-President.

If the Senate is in turmoil on 3 January, and missing one or two folks because of vote problems?  There's no real laws to cover that type of problem.

Acceptance by the general public?  No, I would suggest a large segment of the public will be angered enough over this method to trigger civil conflict for the next four years.  But here's the thing....the area of the US to be looted or burnt?  It's Democratically-in-control cities.  So it's hard to imagine this being really positive.

The Path to National IDs

 Maybe thirty years ago, I might have agreed to the extreme far right/far left arguments on no national ID card.  Over the past twenty years, I've generally reversed my opinion. I don't see how we proceed without one....at this point.

So the top eight observations:

1.  You have to connect this to the Social Security folks (they won't like the idea).  Virtually every county in America has a S/S office, and it's already fairly automated.  I do agree...you'd have to bulk up the manpower and it's probably in the 15k personnel range.

2.  Cost?  Right now, if you go ask various states.....professionally done IDs cost in the $45 to $50 range.  

I would make the US ID rate at $50, and offer up a free card to anyone who presents tax paperwork, or welfare evidence....that they make less than $35k a year on take-home salary.  Anyone from $35k a year or more....pay the $50 per card.

3.  Age to get a card?  I'd make it age 16, and offer up the first card for free.  

4.  Validity of the card?  Seven years.  At 7 years and one day....it's no longer valid. 

5.  Registering to vote in any state?  The national ID card would be required and presented.  Any attempt to get past this registration without the card....would be stopped.  

6.  Laws over duplication or fraud?  If you were the person within Social Security making the fraudulent card or entry.....no less than five years in prison, and $20k fine would be acceptable.  Outside the Social Security  group?  No less than ten years or $25k in fines.  Anyone who has manufactured more than a hundred cards?  Lifetime prison.  

7.  If this card identifies you as a Tennessee resident, then you primarily pay Tennessee taxes.  So if you moved from one state to another, you'd have to go and re-register within that state.  This data would be provided to each state upon request by their police, voting establishment or tax people.

8.  Finally, if you did attempt to attempt to vote in two different states in the same election, with the card....it would automatically flag some national office in the FBI, and a complete investigation would be required.  

Observations

 1.  The odds that Trump, if this mess ends in his defeat....comes back in 2024?  A fair number of Republicans who want him 'out-of-the-picture' are beginning to grasp that he won't just go away.  

Added to this line of progress....no one is exactly expecting the Biden-Harris era to be 'glorious' at this point.  President Harris will likely serve at least two years and find the public support marginal.  

2.  The FBI is looking at backdated ballots in Michigan.  No one says much.  Dozens of such ballots wouldn't make much difference.  If you came up with 5k to 10k of these?  Well...they'd have be thrown out, but if you can't establish which are which....then the whole state 'count' is null and void.  

3.  The polls were more wrong in 2020, than in 2016?  It's now being suggested.  

4.  Charisma-charm issue?

If you rated charisma and charm, then asked about the top forty in the Democratic Party....neither Joe Biden or his VP (Harris) would be in that group.  This is one of those odd parts of the story.

This was Joe's problem in the 1990s as he attempted to get national attention.  This was a problem for Harris in the 2019 debates, and the 2020 primary system.

As the two go forward (I assume) into 2021....it's a problem for them to get anything accomplished, without improving the charisma issue.  

So I'll predict....as you get into 2023 with President Harris.....she'll have competition in the primary, and likely be defeated in the primary system.  It'll be a remarkable moment.....which no one thought about in 2020.