Sunday 18 October 2020

The Revolutions That Never Get Told

 This is one of those historical essays that I occasionally write, and deals with a topic that is rarely discussed in German society or in German schools.  The subject....the revolutions of 1840s (note, I used the word plural here).

So to lay out the landscape that existed....Prussia was on the initial steps of unifying the country and still way off from a unified Prussia/Germany.

Most people will say that the revolutions basically started at a weekend fest held at Hambacher Castle (about forty km's SW of Mannheim).  All in one weekend?  This was a spring fest held in the local community around the castle....starting on 27 May, and ending 30 May 1832.  It's safe to say that a fair amount of alcohol was consumed and a lot of talk occurred by the locals and the guests in this period.

This area around the Hambacher Castle was fairly well known in the previous thirty years as a region where students and intellectuals gathered and 'chatted'.  It had been under some influence of the French before.  This group of 'radicals' ended up discussing in the weeks and months prior to the fest....freedoms.  

One of these discussions revolved around freedom of the press....to openly talk about corruption and ill-habits of the leadership.

Historians generally figure that around 30,000 people gathered for the fest, and it was more about expressing discontent....than partying up with booze.

When the fest ended....one could say that it left people with enthusiasm to voice discontent and frustration over where their governments (regionally) were going.

So all of this brewed....until the spring of 1848 (16 years later)....then all hell broke loose.

The regions affected?  Prussia, Austria, Saxony, Baden, the Pfalz, the Rhineland, and Bavaria. 

Historians generally figure that 400k revolutionaries were in the mix of things....opposed by the police and military authorities (figure a minimum of 40k altogether).

The general demand?  Social change, rights structure, improved work conditions, and voting rights (meaning the kingdom business would eventually dissolve). 

By the summer of 1849....roughly 15 months later....the various revolutions had been put down. The authorities would say they 'won'.  The leaders of the rebellion?  Well...curiously...most left Germany and resettled in the US (in the central region).  Yes, a lot of this German immigrant mix in 1849 and the next couple of years were the result of this rebellion effort and revolution.

This revolution stuff leading to a republic?  One could say that the path was laid out and Prussia was forever changed by this period of chaos.

Karl Marx's book Das Kapital coming twenty years after the revolutionary period?  This is another piece of the story, and Das Kapital probably laid out all of the wishes and desires to correct things....still left from the revolutionary period.

You can imagine this 1847 to 1848 period being very similar to the American 1770s era, and the disenchantment with the British leadership, taxes, and lack of reform.  

Being openly laid out and simple to understand?  No.  Because you have so many regions and separate parts to the story....historians generally make this a miserable experience to read through and understand.  I think it'd make a great historical mini-series, but telling the story would require at least a dozen evenings.  

So to the final part of this story....after the 1849 ending of the revolutions...a number of German/Prussian states sat down and in 1851....created various versions of the Secret Police.  Their whole purpose in life....stifle or limit political discontent.  This meant infiltrating various groups, knowing their path and plans, and countering them.

Yeah....this 1851 action did create the simple path were the Munich Secret Police would hire a young guy by the name of Hitler....to be a insider and spy to a new and progressing party (the Nazis).  It took seven decades, but it opened up a whole new dilemma to be handled.  

The Month After the Election

 Financially speaking....roughly 20-percent of the nation (if you believe what the financial chat folks are saying)....will be out of 'capital' to survive in the four weeks after the election.  In simple terms, by Thanksgiving....a new harsh reality will have occurred.

Similar in nature to the period of the Wall Street crash in the year after the 4 September 1929 event?  In this case, it's not related to banks lacking cash....it's individuals (regular people) who will lack the cash.

Resolving this by the House in the month after the election? I don't think so.  All indications show that various states will not have concluded their election count and all emphasis by the news networks will focus upon this....rather than the personal dilemma of 50-odd million Americans.

With stimulus money, open society and business operations, and ban rules in effect...there's a crash coming.  It probably doesn't matter if Trump wins, or Biden wins, or we have no winner....to move onto 3 January and the use of the back-up system.  

Holding governors, mayors, and various political leaders responsible?  It's hard to see this happening.

So I'll suggest these five things coming down the pike:

1.  A lot of people are going to be forced out of their leases, and pack cars to head 'home'.  They are hoping that Mom and Dad can sustain them in this period of crisis (whether this is good idea or not....doesn't matter).  

2.  I would expect a fair number of people residing in NY City, LA, and SF....to be part of this next wave.  But I'd go further to suggest people coming out of Miami, Houston, Chicago, and other urbanized centers.

3.  The news media will act like they never saw this coming.  In truth, they've been disconnected from society for well over twenty years.  

4.  Social media (Facebook and Twitter) will sow massive discontent.  People will talk about their fall from 'grace', and hype on revolution.

5.  Neither Trump or Biden will have any vision to resolve this....other than trying to get people back to work.  If governors don't want to participate...then Bide/Trump action won't matter.

So on the morning after the election....mark your calendar and start observing the national trend.  That four weeks will be pretty rough.  

A Baseball Chat

 We are days away from the 2020 baseball season ending.  My interest in this season....between the Covid business and childish political stances being played out....is virtually zero.

But we are entering the point where various contracts on players are supposed to up for renewal or new teams bidding on players.

The number of 4-star players up for new contracts?  Roughly 35 folks.  

The odds of no-pay-raises in twenty of these?  I'd give it pretty high chance.

The odds that five of these players might not be offered contracts at all?  Yes, that's another high chance situation.

The odds that none of them get more than a three-year contract?  Another high chance situation.

If you were an agent to these players....it'd be a dismal period to walk and talk money with the teams.

Can you even make a real estimate of a player's value....based on the marginal season of 2020?  No, that's another problem with this whole discussion.

Will they even attempt a true 160-game season in 2021?  I'd question that logic, and suggest at best....you might be looking at a 120-game or less 2021 season. 

Screwed-up?  Yes, and just another reason why I have no real interest looking ahead at base (or football, or NBA action).