Tomorrow, Monday, the Democratic Convention will start up and a thirty-day window will occur where Joe Biden will have a health issue (maybe dementia is admitted....maybe a fake heart attack....etc), and Senator Harris moves up a notch. I've predicted this for about four months now.
It has to happen prior to the 29 September Presidential debate (the first debate).
Why Harris? I think Democratic leadership considers her the 'beast' of attacking people on stage in debates. The intent is to force three of these Harris-Trump debates to a vicious conclusion.
The sad thing here? You can go back to the 2019 Democratic Debates and find that Harris didn't really impress folks that much, and these appearances never improved her odds against Joe Biden (even in her home-state of California). So this national 'game' would be played out, and more folks disenchanted with her debate talents.
What Trump is running against at this point? It's not Joe Biden, or Senator Harris. Face it.....he's running against the political machine. There's hype going on that he might actually be getting serious votes out of NY City (the police union just advocated for him) and with all the defund the police efforts across the nation....he's probably got a gain of two to three million votes over 2016 results.
But here's the serious part of the discussion. For three decades.....the urban vote has been mostly Democrat....you can't find an urban area like NY City, SF, or Seattle that has voted Republican since the 1980s. This is what brought Bill Clinton and Barak Obama into office....while losing a substantial amount of rural county vote in the US.
There are seventeen counties in NY state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (with a majority). The remaining 45 counties voted in the majority for Donald Trump. A flip of one-million votes changing this outcome? I'd now say that all this Covid-19 business, anti-business values, and defund chatter....has accomplished the changeover. I think a million votes more for Trump is now possible in NY.
I'll even go out and predict the same issue now existing in Oregon, and there's a 100k vote change from 2016, and Trump might come very close in winning Oregon.
The same issue might exist in Washington (the state) as well....with fewer people attracted to the Libertarian Party this year, and defund-the-police chatter disturbing the locals around Seattle/Tacoma. Toss 150k votes off Hillary's results, and suddenly Trump has potential to win there in Washington.
Settle back and enjoy the next ten weeks, with all the theater hype of Biden disappearing and Harris as the front-runner.
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