Fleeing Story

 I sat and read through this brief story today.  'Some' Californians have said....they would prepare to leave.  Number?  Never clear.  If I were guessing....might be in the 3,000 to 5,000 range 'talking' about doing this.

Where they'd go?  Unknown.  I might imagine Costa Rica, Panama, Aruba, Canada, etc.

Staying for four years?  That's the part I doubt.  Some might 'like' Central America-living....Canada?  Harsh winters will convince most to pack up and leave after a year.  

But here's the funny thing....these are all people with income (real money).  If you had 5,000 to 10,000 up and leave....the state tax office might get hyped-up and track them down...telling them of a tax connection still existing.

Just an odd story.

What Happens in 70-Odd Days?

 My list would typically be 300 items long, but I'll keep it brief:

1.  Trump engages NOW with Putin, laying down the deal....to occur the first week in office.  Deal?  Putin agrees to move all forces out of Ukraine....keeping the Crimea.  Economic sanctions on Russia would likely end within 2 weeks of this pull-out.  The US agrees to remove those 'new' missiles in Germany....ASAP.  The US further agrees to most US troops to be removed within 18 months from Europe (I'd suggest Naples Port stays, and some fighter wing ends up in Poland).  US remains in NATO, with a lite-presence of EUCOM (somewhere in Germany).  US writes in stone....no further members to be added to NATO.  Putin and Trump meet face-to-face by end of March (my humble guess....in Hungary).  

Putin can say to the Russian public.....he pushed back against NATO and their expansion....winning.  The US can finally downsize it's footprint in Europe.  

Trump tells Nobel-Prize folks....he's got enough on his plate....no need to waste some prize on him.  

2.  US funds going to bio-labs outside of the US?  Finally ended.

3.  All J-6 prisoners pardoned.  Full exam of evidence.....some House members could be charged with criminal behavior.  

4.   At least two Supreme Court Judges giving noticed of retirement in July (Thomas is one of them).

5.  ALL JFK data released.  Some evidence will exist that Oswald was a paid employee of the CIA (probably most shocking piece/detail).

6.  Commission appointed to review automation in the voting process....it's failures.  Commission will recommend a national ID card (to be handled by Social Security folks).....at no cost to citizens.

7.  87,000 IRS agents....given termination notices.

8.  Venezuelan gangs in the US given top priority....at least 3,000 Nat'l Guardsmen and over 1,000 US Marshalls sent on a mission to find/arrest them.

9.  Border established as top priority to secure.

10.  Audit of all Senators/House members on stocks owned/purchased. 

If there were a '11'.....Fluoride is ordered by March to end being mandated in the water-supply.  

Explaining The End Of The Election?

 I could write a 300-page book over this....but I'll limit it to five central themes:

1.  Removing Joe Biden back in the fall of 2023 should have been a priority....then having a true primary would have occurred....with Kamala Harris very unlikely to be in this present race.

2.  All this court-crap on Trump?  Whoever designed this out of the White House....just made things worse in the end.  

3.  Selling Twitter to Elon?  That was a five-star mistake.

4.  The Gaza 'war' and Biden's attachment to Israel?  It ended up upsetting a fair number of Democratic voters.

5.  One central figure out of the White House should have been given the task in 2021....to manage the economy.  By just pretending something positive was going on....was  not enough.

The Hunter-woes?  It's amazing how bad things got....with a four-star scandal just laying there constantly.  

Explaining The Bank Crisis

 To explain the current approaching banking crisis.....you have three key issues.

First, since the 2008 mess.....fixing the banks has not been a priority....so a fair number of problems still relate to business practices allowed to continue.

Second, we have this brewing problem with treasury bonds that the banks bought at inopportune times....with some holding bonds that aren't paying well.  On their books, the crappy-paying bonds can't be resolved or  fixed.  BoA stands in the middle of this particular problem.

Third, we come to a magnificent issue of failed commercial real estate of epic proportion.  

For decades....people and companies came to banks for commercial real estate loans.  They wanted to  operate hotels, office-buildings, restaurants, bars, and malls.  X-property was worth $10-million....the bank made the loan, and up to the Covid-era....this strategy worked, with banks making money.

Covid and the home-office routines....with diminished business....messed-up the whole strategy.

Example?  X-company would own a office building with 25 tenants (lawyers, doctors, accountants, etc).  Home-office crapped on 8 of the tenants, and they don't need max-office-space.  Those eight ended up exiting the building.   New tenants?  They can't be found.  Income from the remaining 17 tenants?  It's enough to cover the mortgage, but not enough to cover maintenance, security, and operational costs.  Selling the property for what you paid for it?  Won't happen.    So eventually, you write up a bankruptcy situation  and approach the bank to hand the the keys. Bank selling it for what the loan was for?  No....that's a wish but won't happen.

So the bank goes to a auction, and discovers the $10-million structure is worth around $3.5-million.  Some bank official signs off on the 'loss', and the bank sits there quietly with a growing list of losses.

This occurs at the local, the regional and the national banks.

Quietly, banks are escalating fees....to cover losses, and the loss-sheets are reaching a point where it'll be public knowledge.

If you notice....the Berkshire have dumped a lot of stock in banks in the past six months....sitting on a ton of cash.

So, what's the be the end?  Banks admit this serious loss, and need saving.  Sadly, FDIC doesn't have the money to cover this.  They would turn to Yellen and Congress.  Well....Yellen would typically go and sell treasury bonds. Yet, at this point....who really wants treasury bonds, at 4.25-percent?  China?  No.  

My expectation is....by the end of January....this mess reaches the point where Berkshire is the ONLY ones willing to buy treasury bonds, but at some rate like 5.25-to-5.5 percent.  Debt issues for the United States?  OH YEAH....this will drag up a five-star mess....requiring either major cuts or major taxes. 

Oh, and if you were wondering....Berkshire has 330-plus BILLION ready to spend.  

BoA surviving?  Only if Berkshire helps them....meaning a massive amount of ownership/supervision by Berkshire in the future.

But this drags me to the key problem....all this excess commercial property....hotels, restaurants, malls, etc....the gov't has to absorb this and 'dump' it.  Where does it go and who would take on possibly tens of thousands of prosperities.....that have lost 50-plus percent of value?

As much as this election stuff involves Trump/Harris....it's really about who will inherit the mess, and if things match up to 1929. 

Ending my observation?  Well....ONE Berkshire share is currently (for the A-stock) around $666,000.  I will say if you could  just afford to buy one single share....it's likely to double in value within three years.  

If Kamala Harris Were To Win?

 1.  The banking collapse would have to occur between now and early January....because banks would figure Biden and Yellen would be easier to deal with than the mystery crew of Harris.  

Note, my estimate of the banking crisis....there's 100 banks in the middle of this mess....and yes, very 1929ish.

2.  President Harris will rarely give interviews over the four-year period....with someone hired to be the 'voice' of Harris in explaining details and strategies.

3.  As they attempt in November/December to hire the insider-crew....they find that half of the qualified Democrats they contact...have zero interest in being on the team.

4.  More than 300,000 Haitians are given entry-slips in 2025 and 2026.....to red-states.  By 2028....more than 1.5-million Haitians will have arrived in America.  Voodoo is the fastest growing religion in the US.  Alabama elects a Haitian-Alabamian as governor.

5.   By mid-summer of 2025....CNN finds that almost no one has interest in public appearances by President Harris.  The Harris team is still  recruiting bus-companies and crowd-hire-groups.....to get a respectful number of attendees in a building.

6. The chief of staff for Harris will be a pro-reparations enthusiast, and continually attempting to drum up support.

7.  President Harris will nominate 3 new Supreme Court justices....while the current nine are in place.....saying she has the 'power'.

8.  After touring Europe and meeting with various leaders there.....there's a hushed silence in the weeks that follow.....with most European politicians realizing that she's not very clear about strategies or intentions.

9.  Diddy is released within one month of Harris's Presidency.

10.  Joe Rogan's podcast is shut-down by the authorities.....with Rogan packing up and moving the operation to Aruba.  

Ten Humble Thoughts

 1.  Based on data out there....easy to say that one out of ten voters from 2020 aren't going to show up in 2024.  Where they went?  Unknown (maybe they never truly existed).

2.  I hate to suggest it at this point, but I think Joe Biden (even suffering from dementia) would have done better in the end than Kamala Harris.

3.  The guy shaking his head in disbelief?  Diddy.

4.  The rush to sell property in the DC area as of next week?  I'd suggest the 'for-sale-inventory' will triple in a matter of six weeks....with gov't workers in great fear of their job going away.

5.  If you remember all that flooding in Spain last week....it has dawned upon folks that around 250-plus small dams were dismantled over the past three years.....to 'correct' the natural flow of rivers.  A bunch of folks will likely stand up and ask questions now.

6.  Guy grinning the most as Trump wins?  Joe Biden.  He'll personally call both Pelosi and Obama....suggesting their push to get him out...gave them this defeat.

7.  Next job for Harris?  November 2026....California governor election....she'll run.

8.  Can CNN survive another four-year period of anti-Trump news for 12 hours a day?  I have my doubts.

9.  In the end, I  doubt if more than 3,000 people actually leave the nation because of Trump.....with three-quarter of them returning within a year...admitting that life is more miserable elsewhere.

10.   At least 40,000 Americans over the next two weeks will seek mental help over the Trump-panic syndrome. 

When Jesus And Satan Entered Politics

 Once upon a time....we had Presidential elections and things barely 'boiled'...meaning you could still bowl with Democrats, attend Church with Republicans, and linger through a 3-hour visit with relatives on Thanksgiving avoiding anything political coming up.

Then one day....the Jesus and Satan identification came up.  One candidate/party is Jesus, and the other candidate/party is Satan.  At that point, everyone wanted to join in on the cult.   Newspapers, churches, radio news, sports networks, magazines like  Reader's Digest and National Geographic, your local Channel 31, your friendly HR folks, scientists, medical geeks, social media, and the prime news folks.....they all  joined the party.

Your trust level dried up....you went skeptical.

You look at a story, reviewing the key five facts given to you....realizing there's two or three gaps missing.  You start to step back....realizing they avoided the whole story.

At some point, your friends with one cult (or the other)....will suggest if you just came back to the cult/church/theme....you'd 'get-right'.  You feel bad for them, but you realize they are fully tied into the Jesus/Satan stuff.

The accusation of conspiracy beliefs?  Well....with JFK and RFK....the laid-out 'truth' doesn't work anymore.  And after.....you just start asking questions.

The Greeks had a number of Gods/spirits that they worshipped....each having some special 'power'.  My favorite was 'Apheleia'.  You would ask Apheleia to help with a mess....presenting ease, simplicity and transparent/untroublesome details to complex situations/chaos.  We kinda need that Greek spirit today.  

Is Iowa Flipped to Harris?

 Some news organizations are trying to say that Harris (in Iowa) is now 2-to-3 points ahead of Trump.

I went to 2020....looking at the numbers.  Trump had 897.4k votes....Biden had 759k votes....eight points plus for Trump.

2016?  Trump had 801k....with Hillary back at 653k.  

So you'd have to carve things up and say Trump lost 75k votes in the last year, with Harris gaining them?  

BS.

If anything.....I'd say Trump improves to the 920k level.  

Just an invented story to convince Trump to spend more time/effort there?  Yeah.

I'll even say this....Barak Obama in 2012...did well with 822k....easily beating Romney, and Harris simply is not a Obama-like figure.  

Humble View

 By this point, most Americans have heard the epic ending to 'Peanut'....the squirrel who'd been saved by some New York guy....gotten to 'pet-status', and was extinguished (put to death) by New York animal authorities late last week.  The visit by the authorities?  Dozen state badged officials.

So I reviewed the whole story from a different prospective....COST.

Man-hours required?  From the planning process....paperwork typed...trip to the home....couple hours there interrogating the couple....recovering and terminating Peanut...returning to the office.....filing paperwork...there's 96 man-hours involved.  

Don't BS me....I've worked within the fed-government and know how man-hours get added up.

So you figure....New York officials....so they are making (with pensions, health-care, and extras)....around $80 an hour.  Total  at this point?  $7,680.00

But hold on....they have pistols, training certificates and regular practice....you need to add around $1,000 onto this amount.

But we aren't finished.  To get 12 folks there....you have to figure New York state, and at least six vehicles, with gas/maintenance figured...so add around $1,200 onto this amount....so we are up to around $10,000 roughly.....to kill one squirrel.

Meetings on Monday with state officials having to dedicate time and effort....explaining this to news people and the public....so add on $30,000 for the sixty-odd people who are engaged for six hours of meetings and BS-explaining things.  

So I'm figuring around $40,000 spent to kill Peanut (the squirrel).   Here's the thing...it's not fake-money....it's coming out of state tax money (New York state).

In most states....Alabama in mentioning....the country would have sent one single animal-control guy out.  He would have done a 8-minute presentation about 'THE LAW', and confiscated the squirrel.  Somewhere between the confiscation and the office....he would have stopped by the side of the road....dumped the squirrel out (alive) near a tree, and filed some 1-line report....squirrel-problem eliminated.  Total expenditure?  Maybe $60.

There's something wrong here....it's just that the public hasn't figured it out yet (especially in New York).

Finally....to the lady in Texas who filed complaints about this pet-squirrel stuff....which led to the officials on the mission? Her social media account?  Shut-down.  Some say her phone is turned off.  It would appear she left the place she was living  because of public criticism, and hiding out at present. Her reputation at this point?  Squirrel-killer-lady?  I can't imagine attending church....bowling with some team....attending weddings....under this type of accomplishment.

We live in a pretty rough world....where a dozen folks might visit with 'authority' and waste a whole day on 'nothing' but killing one single squirrel.  In Alabama....at least in the 1970s....a dozen guys would have killed at least 300 squirrels in a single hunting trip....made no report.....piled into one pick-up (with 9 guys riding in the rear....having no safety concerns) and having consumed six cases of beer before night-fall.  

Aunt Jemima Story

 This week, a story popped-up on social media....that Quaker Oats (they own the former brand of Aunt Jemima) is considering in 2025 to bring back Aunt Jemima syrup.

BS?  I paused over this.....the company itself hasn't made a public statement (yet).

This came only from social media.

But I pondered upon the idea....what if you brought back Aunt Jemima, but as a older Haitian lady (say from Springfield)?  One could create this fictional Haitian woman....feeding her nephews pancakes.

I'd even ask....can't we use a trans-woman-Haitian for this situation as well?

The Tabs Story

This week in Colorado....the chief person in charge of the automation voting machines....goofed up and gave out a Excel spreadsheet, which had the passwords to each individual machine in the state.  For  a while, it was public knowledge....at least until they changed the passwords.

How she goofed-up?  Well...in Excel, you can have tab, after tab, after tab....in one single document.

I worked once with a female contractor (over 20 years ago)....who had gone off to a Excel class or two.  She came back in this Jesus-like manner....being a wizard at using Excel.

I needed some data one day, and she came to give me a copy of some document.  I noticed right away.....there were a dozen tabs to the document.

She had gone way beyond the expectation of our gov't agent (the boss)....having  literally thousands of bits of information built into this document and the stupid tabs.

It came to me one day....that she was just one of hundreds of thousands around the globe....who were inserting tabs, and doing massive calculations with sometimes marginal or useless information.  

Did this Colorado gal even know what this tab was or the significance of the passwords?  I doubt it.

It's just funny how technology has become some 'pain-in-the-ass' for society.  

An Investing Story

Around 2008....I worked with a guy whose dad called him up one day about a stock....SIRI (Sirus XM Radio).  It was doing lousy and gone down to 10 cents a share. His dad was hearing some good stuff about a comeback.  Dad said he was going to buy $10,000 of shares (figure about 100,000 shares).

My buddy brought this up with me.  I just couldn't see the wisdom....it was a dying stock in my mind.  The buddy went ahead bought some stock (couple days later, it was around 12 cents a share).  I seem to remember it being near 150,000 shares that he bought.

Six weeks later....stock was near 18 cents a share, and I jumped into this.  I wasn't crazy over a huge number.....so I bought near 2,500 shares.  About two months later....it was near 25 cents and I sold my shares, happily.  I went back in a couple months later at 35 cents and eventually sold at 45 cents.

My buddy and his dad were still into this in 2010, and I suspect they are still both into the stock.

Value now?  I was glancing at SIRI stock prices today (sitting at $26 a share).  My buddy and his dad....if they were still invested into it....would have several million each.

You come across some kind of gamble like that once in your life.  Either you take it or you walk away.

Barberry Effects

 Back in mid-January, I got a bulk bag of barberries, and started a early AM and late PM 'taste' (1 half-of-a-shot glass each).

Effects so far?

I'm losing about 1 pound each three weeks, without any real dieting attempt.  Hungary at lunch?  No....I'll eat a banana or apple, but I don't have any real appetite.

Slowing down my digestive tract?  YEAH....my bowel movements have gone to 48 to 60 hour rotations.