Friday 2 April 2021

Migrants, Biden, and 2022

 This week, if you followed CNN....they had two numbers that they put up (different days).

The first....they had a guy who says that 25,000 juvenile kids will cross the border and be a US problem.  

I sat and looked at the story.  Actually, if you use current numbers, current trends....then they will hit the 25,000 juvenile number by early August.  So it's more likely to be 40,000 to 45,000 by 1 January.  

This guest on CNN was just half right.  

Second, another guest came on and said the current trend appears to show that 2-million migrants will cross the border and be intercepted.  The number not intercepted or that makes it past the border patrol?  Unknown.  

One might take the general numbers and just take a wild guess....that another 2-to-3 million make it.  

Where this leads onto?  I would suggest three scenarios being played out:

1.  Whether President Biden/VP Harris believe it....this actually snowballs into the number one political 'crap' for them to clean up by early 2022, which no clean-up solution fits their current agenda.

2.  A whole bunch of two-million-plus migrants arriving in the midst of a downward economy?  Go ask the economic professors how this plays out in reality, and it's a dismal script.  

3.  Finally, you come to this issue of the two-million being simply the 'front-end'....what happens in 2022?  Another two to three million?  

All of this leads to a hectic 2022 primary period, with various Democratic House members having to explain things, which don't sell well to 75-percent of districts across the United States.  

I'll take a humble guess that there is this wave coming in November of 2022....where sixty-odd seats held by Democrats will flip, and leave Biden's team in a rough position....where they might decide to hold an impeachment over the Ukraine things, and financial deals with Hunter Biden.  

As for Biden's ticket to survive?  It wouldn't shock me if he suddenly had a 180-degree turn on immigration and suddenly invested 150-billion dollars in the border fence deal.  

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