Thursday 19 August 2021

Afghanistan, Biden and Observations

 1.  I went back yesterday and watched the Monday evening Biden 'talk'.  It's an odd thing...I counted just in a five-minute period, about twenty-five moments where he was about to say something 'else', caught himself, and corrected.  Maybe it was the speed of the text machine in front of him, some personal style of his, or just being tired, but it was noticeable.

2.  Why have these reporters in the room, and pretend it was a news conference....when he would finish and just walk out of the room?  Unknown.  I would imagine they were all standing there at the end...wondering why the hell they got the phone-call to show up.....when nothing could be asked.

3.  Yesterday, President Biden said 15,000 Americans (non-military, non-embassy) may be in Afghanistan still in the end, with no way out.  An accurate number?  Well...no one can be sure about this.  Just in journalists, it wouldn't shock me if there were fifty-odd Americans walking around.  Contractors?  I seriously doubt if any of them remain.

4.  This 'good Taliban' suggestion?  It's probably multiplied over the past twenty-four hours.  I know....it sounds like 'good Nazis' or 'good KKK members'. 

5.  Serious use of smart-phones and Twitter by the Taliban?  This has been brought up a number of times.  A lot of the messages received by the public....come from Taliban leadership via Twitter.  Twitter wasn't around in the 1990s, and the cellphone technology was just beginning to really take off.  It's an odd factor in this whole game.

6.  The idea that the Russians or Chinese are supporting the Taliban this time around?  The rumor is continuing to be pushed.  

7.  When the Americans left Bagram Air Base on 5 July (Monday), in the evening hours without saying a word to the locals....that was the moment when everyone (the Afghans, the Germans, the Brits, etc) should have realized how messy and unplanned the next two months were.  That was the moment to pack up in Kabul and get a plane out of the country.

8.  If this mess elevates to the point where a thousand Americans are left after the rescue concludes, and are arrested/detained/held?  This will mean 'talks' and some 'gift' for the Taliban.  In this scenario, I would suggest that President Biden's strategy will have reached a point where impeachment or the 25th Amendment will be openly discussed.  At the very least, back in June....he should have asked for an evacuation plan to be prepared, and positioned enough troops to carry it out.  

9.  Where is VP Harris?  In Vietnam, visiting.

10.  On the bizarre scale....this ramped up and I'd give it a 'solid-TEN'.  As weak as President Carter was, and the severe marginalized skills of President Harding....you are just left wondering how the remaining 3.3 years of Biden can go.  You almost need a full-time person standing there and asking him to explain why his decisions go this way, and force him to evaluate priorities in a totally different way.  It's ridiculous to suggest that you need to teach a 78-year old guy but that's the simple blunt truth.

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