Political Chatter

 Some chatter yesterday that Trump has decided several states are now in play, and he intends to push on advertising in those states.

The list?  New York, New Jersey, Virginia, New Mexico, and Minnesota.

So I pondered over this. 

Can one use the 2020 numbers for legit analysis?  No.  Those numbers are likely to never repeat again....even if it's Newsome instead of Biden.

So I'd use the 2016 numbers.

New York in 2016?  Trump lost by 1.5-million votes.  Well....lot of negativity around NY City over the migration business presently.  If you went around the whole state....I suspect that around 1-million votes have shifted a bit, and Trump might be able to sell a 'fix-migration-agenda'.  

New Jersey in 2016?  Trump lost there by 550,000 votes roughly (out of 3.8-million votes cast roughly).  Again, the migration business will be a top subject and he might be able persuade several hundred thousand folks to shift votes.

Virginia in 2016? It was a 220,000 vote difference roughly.  Presently, Trump is scaring the work-in-DC crowd about federal employee cuts....so I seriously doubt  he can find anyone being pro-Trump.

New Mexico in 2016? Roughly a 65,000 vote difference.  The fact that almost half of the population of the state identify as Hispanic?  If he could shift 40,000 votes over...he'd win the state.

In Illinois?  It ought to be a safe state for Biden/Newsom....but I think  roughly 500,000 voters in the Chicago area would be willing to shift votes and admit that the migration crisis is harming the city.

2020 was a one-time glitch in the system where a lot of absentee ballots were in the system.  Without Covid?  It won't occur again.