Bank Stability Discussion

 First, I'd recommend the three video-reports to view:

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2025/why-some-of-americas-banks-are-at-risk-of-failing-cnbc-marathon/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/list-failed-banks-2009-2023-170005906.html

https://www.americanbanker.com/list/4-banks-that-will-be-in-regulators-hot-seat-in-2025

Second, one of the better podcast folks who daily does a piece, and discusses banking problems...is Dan over at:

https://www.youtube.com/@IAllegedly/videos

Third, the commercial property issue (malls, stores, restaurants)...where no one seems willing to take them on (or buy from the banks)....STILL exists.  Banks hold the keys to the properties since owners gave up on leasing them out or selling (even if the pricing was half of the normal value).

Fourth, I noticed in the last day or two....Canadian banks are randomingly coming up and just telling folks....your account is to be closed.   No mention of reasoning.  Maybe there's too much debt?  Unknown.

Fifth, first bank failure of 2025....little discussed....but it was Pulaski Savings  Bank of Illinois.  FDIC says they had to pay out around $28-million to cover individual accounts.  Buyer for the bank?  No problem.....after FDIC covered the accounts.

Sixth, what barely got mentioned in the news....FDIC is taking around 17 executives of the Silicon Valley Bank (remember the first BIG failure).....to court.  They say the folks were fairly incompetent, and want to seizure funds that the folks have in their accounts.  Wishing them luck, but I suspect all will claim they were being deceived by 'someone'.  

Seventh, about a month ago....Franklin Street CEO Andrew Wright....did a talk and basically said....the big banks 'have no more runway to extend and delay the massive amount of real estate loan maturities'.  He didn't say a month or quarter....but that bank real estate crisis has to come and be dealt with.

Eight, I noticed two weeks ago....ALL-TIME high level of people paying just-minimum level on credit-card debt.  People are carrying around an enormous burden (car loans, credit card, insurance, home loan, student-loans, etc).   

Ninth, I'll point this out....the 4th largest bank in the US in 2008...was Lehmen Brothers.  At some point, the Bush folks made a decision that some banks could be saved....and Lehmens was too far gone to save.

I see this attitude likely to repeat....with at least one or two big banks (with connections in a large way to commercial real estate on their books)....being sliced up and sold to lesser banks.  The commercial property situation?  Wouldn't shock me if the US gov't takes possession and offers some public sale.

You might see mall with a 2020 value of $30-million....going to half-a-million.  Course....you'd be stupid to buy something with huge property tax issues, and limited ways to lease out the property or maintain it.

In the end, my general advice to 'survive' this mess?  Two things, remember the FDIC insurance is limited to $250,000 per bank. If you are exceeding that amount....go to some credit union, and move the excess to some savings or CD account.  

Second thing...for  the most part....credit unions seem relatively safe.  

Finally, if your knowledge over the 1929 crash is marginal....one book I recommend is 'The Great Crash' by Selwyn Parker.....written in 2008.  Prices at $2.99 on Kindle Amazon.  

There's also a excellent book that talks over the Florida  'land-boom'  of the 1920s....that led up to  the banking collapse....entitled: Florida Land-Boom of the 1920s, by Gregg Turner.  It is pricey on Kindle (around $20).  If you weren't aware....a lot of individuals went out and speculated....OVER and OVER.....getting hyped up during the build-up.