Someone conducted a poll on Super-Tuesday, and came to this odd fact with what people said. Ninety-five percent of Republicans voting.....said that they were angry and frustrated with the federal government (the whole government). Sixty-five percent of Democrats said the same thing. Basically, they want it to function....to revolve around like some theater operation for public entertainment.
What this means? If both groups are serious.....it'll be a massive vote in November for Trump, and some enthusiasm for Trump to start firing people or putting some people into difficult positions.
If this were smaller group....say forty-percent Republican and ten-percent Democrat.....then I'd say it'd just blow over and the news media could still play out the regular games. But this is a massive number of negative voters.
So, I'll make five predictions:
1. Obama-Care rapidly is challenged and the Republicans and Democrats will be forced into a legislative corner to probably accept Trump's vision for health care. It might be a bitter thing for the Republicans to accept his plan, and some Democrats will have problems.....but the present system isn't made for permanent usage.
2. US troop strengths in Europe will be downsized. I'll take a guess that half the troops will be removed by the end of 2018. Trump will declare the cold war over, and keep the troops active....on US soil....and start to envision some different version of NATO in the future. If France or Germany is worried about the less troops.....they will have to find money in their budget to expand their own military.
3. Trump will ask budget questions about where money is going with Homeland Security. Their bottomless pit....will be exposed. Some people will be asked to leave, and I suspect their budget will be cut over four years by ten-percent.
4. The business plan for the National Park system will be questioned. All the services and support personnel of the park system will be brought up for review and I would take a guess that ten to twenty percent of the force will be dismissed over a four-year period.
5. Whether Congress likes it or not.....there's going to be a massive tax revision somewhere between 2017 and 2020. It might be a flat tax....it might be a different way of handling capital gains....but there's some changes coming which will make people happy about.
In the end, as angry as people are and desiring of change....we may all reach a point by 2020....where we've had enough and want to return to the plain old fake politics. Well.....maybe. Maybe not.
Saturday, 5 March 2016
One Thing About Mitt's Phony Talk
Over the last dozen hours, I've sat and pondered upon this one comment by Mitt Romney.....over phony political figures.
Maybe I'm showing my age.....but I really can't think of a single politician today......local, state, or national.....who isn't phony in some way. I'm sure Mitt thinks that there are fine, honest, humble and genuine people out there, but frankly.....I don't see any of them.
You have the fake guys who pretend to be religious, and then turn around to demonstrate they just aren't religious.
You have the fake politicians who claim to be decent, and then they do something stupid like skim funds off the office credit card, cheat on their spouse, or get caught with two grams of some nifty new drug.
You have the fake politicians who claim to be impartial, but then around to show how stupid they are or how easily they can be bought off.
You have the fake guys who get some weekend trip to a Arizona resort.....to help rig up a deal for some land developer.
You have some guys who walk around and pretend to be a Republican.....when they really are a fairly decent Democrat. Go figure that one.
Three decades ago.....I would have been considered one of a small group of people who believed in the massive phony problem. Today? I'm of the opinion that roughly one-quarter of society believes in a massive phoniness that exist with political figures.
Was Mitt a phony? When you start looking at his business background.....some things fit well, and some things just don't come across as genuine. Was Mitt a real conservative or just a fake conservative? Some people go back to examine his years as a Mass governor, and discuss various examples where he was more or less a hybrid conservative....to survive within a fairly liberal state.
Is Trump a phony? Probably so. He's probably like the other 100-percent of political figures out there today. But at least he pretty much says what comes to his mind....something that you haven't seen in decades with most political figures you encounter.
Maybe I'm showing my age.....but I really can't think of a single politician today......local, state, or national.....who isn't phony in some way. I'm sure Mitt thinks that there are fine, honest, humble and genuine people out there, but frankly.....I don't see any of them.
You have the fake guys who pretend to be religious, and then turn around to demonstrate they just aren't religious.
You have the fake politicians who claim to be decent, and then they do something stupid like skim funds off the office credit card, cheat on their spouse, or get caught with two grams of some nifty new drug.
You have the fake politicians who claim to be impartial, but then around to show how stupid they are or how easily they can be bought off.
You have the fake guys who get some weekend trip to a Arizona resort.....to help rig up a deal for some land developer.
You have some guys who walk around and pretend to be a Republican.....when they really are a fairly decent Democrat. Go figure that one.
Three decades ago.....I would have been considered one of a small group of people who believed in the massive phony problem. Today? I'm of the opinion that roughly one-quarter of society believes in a massive phoniness that exist with political figures.
Was Mitt a phony? When you start looking at his business background.....some things fit well, and some things just don't come across as genuine. Was Mitt a real conservative or just a fake conservative? Some people go back to examine his years as a Mass governor, and discuss various examples where he was more or less a hybrid conservative....to survive within a fairly liberal state.
Is Trump a phony? Probably so. He's probably like the other 100-percent of political figures out there today. But at least he pretty much says what comes to his mind....something that you haven't seen in decades with most political figures you encounter.
Friday, 4 March 2016
Trump, Romney, and the Fake GOP
I sat yesterday and watched the seventeen minute piece of Romney blasting away at Trump. It's an odd piece because it might have meant something back in December. But now....early March? It's worthless.
I'm not much of a Romney fan. I look back at the 2012 election and generally regard his attempt as marginal at best. His staff, his theme, his sales-job to the public.....just weren't going to work.
Why stand there now and do some tough piece on Trump? It's hard to say who begged him to make the statement or the logic behind it.
So, this morning....I got up and watched thirty minutes of the Trump response. Basically, he drilled into Romney and made the Romney speech a one-star episode.
Here's my three observations of where we are today.
First, the general Republican public, and roughly a quarter of all Democrats....are fed and frustrated. They hate DC politics in general, and think most of the guys in DC are actors....more than actual politicians. This has reached such a stage.....that they even are willing to consider some guy like Trump as the only one who might go in and fire people left and right.
Second, for two decades.....most Republicans have continued the trend of identifying their leadership as simply fake. If you asked most what the difference was between the Republicans and Democrats in terms of success (what the House and Senate has achieved in the past two years for example).....they'd look at you and start laughing. There's nothing worth discussing.
Third, there's some belief that the Republicans are more of a lobbyist agenda association....than an actual political party. You'd like to laugh over that suggestion.....but it's not really a joke anymore.
Two years ago, I would have likely said that Scott Walker would be the person in the lead at this point, and Jeb Bush second. Well.....something has happened. A new reality of sorts. People fed up on fake politics, total distrust of the news media, and frustration that goes across both parties. November will be an interesting period in American history.
I'm not much of a Romney fan. I look back at the 2012 election and generally regard his attempt as marginal at best. His staff, his theme, his sales-job to the public.....just weren't going to work.
Why stand there now and do some tough piece on Trump? It's hard to say who begged him to make the statement or the logic behind it.
So, this morning....I got up and watched thirty minutes of the Trump response. Basically, he drilled into Romney and made the Romney speech a one-star episode.
Here's my three observations of where we are today.
First, the general Republican public, and roughly a quarter of all Democrats....are fed and frustrated. They hate DC politics in general, and think most of the guys in DC are actors....more than actual politicians. This has reached such a stage.....that they even are willing to consider some guy like Trump as the only one who might go in and fire people left and right.
Second, for two decades.....most Republicans have continued the trend of identifying their leadership as simply fake. If you asked most what the difference was between the Republicans and Democrats in terms of success (what the House and Senate has achieved in the past two years for example).....they'd look at you and start laughing. There's nothing worth discussing.
Third, there's some belief that the Republicans are more of a lobbyist agenda association....than an actual political party. You'd like to laugh over that suggestion.....but it's not really a joke anymore.
Two years ago, I would have likely said that Scott Walker would be the person in the lead at this point, and Jeb Bush second. Well.....something has happened. A new reality of sorts. People fed up on fake politics, total distrust of the news media, and frustration that goes across both parties. November will be an interesting period in American history.
Wednesday, 2 March 2016
Breakfast Talk
So, as you look at this poster at the local pub of the breakfast menu....you might note the sausage (extra large), the bacon, the two eggs over easy, the toast below the eggs, and.....the mushrooms.
Yeah.....mushrooms.
Some places even went a step more....offering a baked tomato as well.
The grease content? Well....that sausage is loaded....to the maximum extent possible.
The alternate deal? You could ask for cereal or oatmeal. Or you could walk two doors down to the donut shop and get some Krispy Kreme options. Yeah....that's about it.
The coffee? Aussies don't expect much on coffee.....so you end up with one-star coffee.
A Sign of Warning
Basically, it's a city warning sign.....a cop can ticket and prosecute you....without any warning.....if you were waiting. It could be a minute of waiting....it could be 8 seconds of waiting....it doesn't matter.
Generally, I'd be a bit scared of city driving there. A cop could nicely tap on my window, and suddenly for some stopping phase of five seconds.....I'd be called into court and prosecuted for something.
Tuesday, 1 March 2016
This Electoral College Issue
I sat and did a spreadsheet over a three-way race (Trump, Bloomberg, and Hillary).....if this were to happen (I think it's less than a 20-percent now, and more likely Mr Big-Gulp himself would enter at the last minute at the Democratic Convention to replace Hillary).
In a three-way deal....I don't think any of the three would be able to take the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win. I think Bloomberg would win three to five states, and thus create the 270-problem.
So as a reminder....if you fail to reach 270 Electoral Votes....then it's dismissed and they meet a week later in DC, for the House to elect.....state by state.....with one vote each.....the next President (they would have all three to vote upon). The Senate would meet and then vote from the top two VP candidates for VP (creating a possible situation where a Democrat VP is working for a Republican President).
Three state delegations are split in number (equal Republicans and Democrats), and it's doubtful that they would be able to reach some conclusion.....so they don't count (Maine, NJ, and Minn).
Republican-led states lead with 33 states....more than enough if the Republicans stood by Trump. I doubt that the Party apparatus would do that.....so you can figure some issues here.
Trump is smart enough to convey his direction ahead and where you have a small state.....say less than four members in the Republican group of 33.....Trump might be able to promise enough.....to get their votes. So, I'm giving Trump roughly sixteen to eighteen states. Hillary would be able to carve out fourteen states, unless the Democratic Party abandons her. So Mr Big-Gulp would be there with seventeen states.
None of this equals 26 votes.....as required to get over the hump.
One could sense.....if we into this big of a mess and after one day of talking, and one real vote by the end of day one.....that this might take a week.....maybe two weeks, with people demanding all kinds of promises from their party, or for their state. You might suddenly find that Trump's talents of promising thing and delivering.....has some benefit. Maybe you could convince six Democrats from Florida to flip their votes among the state members over to Trump, or talk 15 House members from Texas to flip over.
Would this trigger people to go anti-Electoral College and demand a Constitutional change? Maybe. But you'd have to ask......who got the idea to fake out people from both the Republican and Democratic parties? Who really would want Mr Big-Gulp as president?
In a three-way deal....I don't think any of the three would be able to take the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win. I think Bloomberg would win three to five states, and thus create the 270-problem.
So as a reminder....if you fail to reach 270 Electoral Votes....then it's dismissed and they meet a week later in DC, for the House to elect.....state by state.....with one vote each.....the next President (they would have all three to vote upon). The Senate would meet and then vote from the top two VP candidates for VP (creating a possible situation where a Democrat VP is working for a Republican President).
Three state delegations are split in number (equal Republicans and Democrats), and it's doubtful that they would be able to reach some conclusion.....so they don't count (Maine, NJ, and Minn).
Republican-led states lead with 33 states....more than enough if the Republicans stood by Trump. I doubt that the Party apparatus would do that.....so you can figure some issues here.
Trump is smart enough to convey his direction ahead and where you have a small state.....say less than four members in the Republican group of 33.....Trump might be able to promise enough.....to get their votes. So, I'm giving Trump roughly sixteen to eighteen states. Hillary would be able to carve out fourteen states, unless the Democratic Party abandons her. So Mr Big-Gulp would be there with seventeen states.
None of this equals 26 votes.....as required to get over the hump.
One could sense.....if we into this big of a mess and after one day of talking, and one real vote by the end of day one.....that this might take a week.....maybe two weeks, with people demanding all kinds of promises from their party, or for their state. You might suddenly find that Trump's talents of promising thing and delivering.....has some benefit. Maybe you could convince six Democrats from Florida to flip their votes among the state members over to Trump, or talk 15 House members from Texas to flip over.
Would this trigger people to go anti-Electoral College and demand a Constitutional change? Maybe. But you'd have to ask......who got the idea to fake out people from both the Republican and Democratic parties? Who really would want Mr Big-Gulp as president?
Trump, Repudiation, and the Klan
I've sat and watched two key political games played out this week.....both fairly related to each other. Both involving Trump and a gimmick-attempt to take him down a step.
Somehow, the KKK (the Klan) and David Duke got brought up.....and the reporter attempted (more than once) to get Trump to repudiate the Klan. Trump didn't budge.
I’m amused on occasion how David Duke gets brought up by intellectual types, and they want the guy at the end of the table to react in an uncomfortable way. The thing is.....Duke is more or less some college-educated idiot (like ten-million other such idiots) who briefly got used for media purposes in the 1980s/1990s, and is more or less a pawn of various lobbyists....to be used when necessary.
People who run around and worry about David Duke or the Klan in 2016...probably ought to worry about lions breaking out of their local zoo, aliens coming to probe them, or worry about some gay-Peruvian drug cartels in Tulsa.
The Klan is a toothless but mythical beast in this modern age. If you see some group trying popularize off the Klan....you can assume there is some lobbyists at work and helping to fund the effort....herding people into some voting station to vote in a certain way to “save their society, culture or state”. Fear, for all practical purposes, drive people to vote in weird ways.
Then we turn to the second part of this essay.....repudiation. The repudiation gimmick is just that...a gimmick. Would you be willing to repudiate American usage of the nuke in Japan? Would you be willing to repudiate American money going to drug cartels in Mexico? Would you be willing to repudiate American hopelessness with Indian reservations? I could write a “War and Peace” book of 1,243 pages over all the various things in the world to repudiate.
Don’t waste your time and effort over repudiation. Move forward and learn from past mistakes....don’t repeat those mistakes or waste time repudiating the past.
Somehow, the KKK (the Klan) and David Duke got brought up.....and the reporter attempted (more than once) to get Trump to repudiate the Klan. Trump didn't budge.
I’m amused on occasion how David Duke gets brought up by intellectual types, and they want the guy at the end of the table to react in an uncomfortable way. The thing is.....Duke is more or less some college-educated idiot (like ten-million other such idiots) who briefly got used for media purposes in the 1980s/1990s, and is more or less a pawn of various lobbyists....to be used when necessary.
People who run around and worry about David Duke or the Klan in 2016...probably ought to worry about lions breaking out of their local zoo, aliens coming to probe them, or worry about some gay-Peruvian drug cartels in Tulsa.
The Klan is a toothless but mythical beast in this modern age. If you see some group trying popularize off the Klan....you can assume there is some lobbyists at work and helping to fund the effort....herding people into some voting station to vote in a certain way to “save their society, culture or state”. Fear, for all practical purposes, drive people to vote in weird ways.
Then we turn to the second part of this essay.....repudiation. The repudiation gimmick is just that...a gimmick. Would you be willing to repudiate American usage of the nuke in Japan? Would you be willing to repudiate American money going to drug cartels in Mexico? Would you be willing to repudiate American hopelessness with Indian reservations? I could write a “War and Peace” book of 1,243 pages over all the various things in the world to repudiate.
Don’t waste your time and effort over repudiation. Move forward and learn from past mistakes....don’t repeat those mistakes or waste time repudiating the past.
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