There are five observations that you can make about this 'amusing' crisis existing now with Iran, and this nuclear treaty that President Obama fixed up during his administration.
1. Back when all this treaty business first started to get discussed....2014....oil pricing was near $90 a barrel. Iran....desperate to recover in the economic world....had been isolated and suffering. So various talks came up and opportunities were realized. If they could just open this peace door (especially felt in 2014), then this vast oil income situation would come.
Sadly, by the last quarter of 2015, when the treaty framework was falling into place....oil had fallen to around $52 (more or less). You go and look at 2011 to 2014....a $100 or more per barrel.
What happened? US fracking. Everyone across the oil sector has suffered. Presently? In the $45 to $50 range.
Iran desperately needs to see economic change....to make the public happy (something that has lingered for two decades now).
2. Everyone in Europe is poised to make money, once the treaty falls into place. No one in Europe wants to deny the opportunity, period.
3. Israel has done a fair amount of investigation and believes it's all a fraud. Evidence? It falls into the category of suggesting that Iran 'could' (not would) quickly revert the energy program into a weapon program.....beyond that nothing else.
4. If the Iran government were a civilian-led situation....there might be more belief or trust. The fact that it's entirely dominated by religious 'players'....leads one to wonder about stability.
5. Finally, you come to this wild-card that one one seems to want to discuss....Saudi Arabia. Basically, they are about one step away from starting their own nuclear program and this treaty probably would be enough to trigger that. Who would help them? One can sit and ponder over that. For Iran? Well...it's an enormous problem. If Saudi Arabia goes this direction....in a very short period of time....Iran would have to trip over the mess leading to weapons development.
What happens here? I suspect Trump will allow the treaty to go forward, with the warning to France, Germany and the EU....their respect will be lost once Iran crosses over some imaginary line. Saudi Arabia will proceed with it's own nuclear program, and everyone will be sitting there and wondering how big a mess was created....in avoiding the the cancellation of the treaty. The cherry on this cake.....it all leads back to the Obama Administration's efforts, and history would be very unkind on the problems it manufactured.
Course, the other wild-card is the possibility of a coup in Iran, and some new leadership coming out of thin air.
Monday, 7 May 2018
Regretted Votes
There are three occasions in life that I tend to regretted in terms of voting.
I regret voting for Ross Perot in 1992. I realized about a year later that he never really wanted to win....this was more about punishing Bush, than anything else. All of us wanted a third-party guy option....sadly....it was a fake option that we got.
I regret voting for Senator John McCain in 2008. It was a stacked situation, with your choice for the GOP of being McCain, Romney, or "Huck"....while on the Democratic side.....it was a choice of Hillary in her youth, or a unknown Senator from Illinois who simply gave good speeches but had no real experience. It was for me....the most worthless election in my life.
I regret voting for Romney in 2012. Again.....a stacked election with no options from either party.
I regret voting for Ross Perot in 1992. I realized about a year later that he never really wanted to win....this was more about punishing Bush, than anything else. All of us wanted a third-party guy option....sadly....it was a fake option that we got.
I regret voting for Senator John McCain in 2008. It was a stacked situation, with your choice for the GOP of being McCain, Romney, or "Huck"....while on the Democratic side.....it was a choice of Hillary in her youth, or a unknown Senator from Illinois who simply gave good speeches but had no real experience. It was for me....the most worthless election in my life.
I regret voting for Romney in 2012. Again.....a stacked election with no options from either party.
Sunday, 6 May 2018
On the Topic of Cults
About a week ago, I got onto the subject of anti-capitalists (the Hillary essay). In numerous ways, I tend to see the anti-capitalists, the hyped-up political factions, and some self-help groups functioning like a cult.
I had a chance around seven years ago to be in DC when two groups of anti-capitalists were in some camping situation and long-term protest. I went over one Saturday to survey them, and their efforts. To be honest....they are the only anti-capitalists I've met in my life. I have seen a fair number of interviews and YouTube videos on the culture group, but this was my one and only day with them.
So group one.....about two blocks north of the White House....were mostly young folks....eighteen to twenty-five. Their slant to me....in a short ten-minute period....was more of a lecture. They had memorized phrases and had limited ability to argue beyond what they'd memorized. Camp-wise....their place was a mess, and infested with fleas and mice. They were mostly all college students, and this was a purpose in life.
So, group two....three blocks east of the White House....mostly all people over the age of forty. They were more relaxed, and could engage on the various topics. They did have some perception of the bankers and their connection to DC. Camp-wise, their place was clean, tidy and organized. They were folks who mostly came out of the 1960s and 1970s. This group was anti-capitalist in nature, but not quiet the same anger or hostility as the first group.
After a while, I came to this conclusion over the two groups....they both functioned in some way like a cult. Yes, it was one of those reality moments when you realize that cults aren't owned by religions only. Political groups and even some self-help groups....are working along lines of a cult.
Over the years, I've kinda sat and thought over this a good bit, and recognized around ten cult features which go across various lines....meaning it's all the same in political, religious or self-help cults.
1. Shunning. If you don't think like the insiders....then you have to be an outsider, and you tend to be shunned (even if you were a family member). It works that way now with politics, some self-help organizations, and various religions.
2. Denial of commitment is not allowed. Once 'Joe' says X....then the group more or less has to follow what Joe says....even if it is pretty stupid. It's like standing up in a black-run barber-shop and saying you lost faith in the Democratic Party.....they would not allow you to suggest a denial, and you'd likely get shunned.
3. Everyone in the group (doesn't matter if it religious, self-help or political)....is 'elite'. The 'you-are-special' routine is reinforced over and over....and you tend to feel hyped-up (at least for the first year).
4. It's always a us-versus-them scenario. Conflict....24-hours a day....seven days a week.....fifty-two weeks a year? Yep. Thanks to television....you get this theme all the time. The internet helps to reinforce this value.
5. There has to be an end....which justifies the means of getting there. Maybe it's a fraud or fake goal.....but it'll tie in nicely with the means.
6. Amusing as it sounds....everyone on the insider crew is hyped up to bring in new members and fresh cash. In a way, it's designed as a pyramid scheme.
7. Independent thought....thinking outside of the box? It cannot be allowed. The cult would falter quickly if a quarter of the insiders were paused and thinking over what was said or threatened.
8. Reality is shaken. First you get facts, then you get supposed-facts. Then you get suggested-facts. Then you get somewhat-true-facts. Then you get fake-facts. As long as you don't sit and ponder upon this....all the facts (even the fake ones) lead you to one single conclusion.
9. Generally, everyone with the insider crew is hyped up that they are saving themselves, the nation, or humanity. Saving is a common theme.....you tend to feel good about saving folks. Saving gives you warm feeling of accomplishment.
10. Once engaged in some argument, and losing....the cult guy will resort to fifth-grade behavior and just start yelling, or repeating phrases to reinforce their view. Debate-wise, they tend to lack skills or knowledge to win arguments.
As much as you'd like to think cults are just religious things....no, they exist in political spheres and self-help groups.
I had a chance around seven years ago to be in DC when two groups of anti-capitalists were in some camping situation and long-term protest. I went over one Saturday to survey them, and their efforts. To be honest....they are the only anti-capitalists I've met in my life. I have seen a fair number of interviews and YouTube videos on the culture group, but this was my one and only day with them.
So group one.....about two blocks north of the White House....were mostly young folks....eighteen to twenty-five. Their slant to me....in a short ten-minute period....was more of a lecture. They had memorized phrases and had limited ability to argue beyond what they'd memorized. Camp-wise....their place was a mess, and infested with fleas and mice. They were mostly all college students, and this was a purpose in life.
So, group two....three blocks east of the White House....mostly all people over the age of forty. They were more relaxed, and could engage on the various topics. They did have some perception of the bankers and their connection to DC. Camp-wise, their place was clean, tidy and organized. They were folks who mostly came out of the 1960s and 1970s. This group was anti-capitalist in nature, but not quiet the same anger or hostility as the first group.
After a while, I came to this conclusion over the two groups....they both functioned in some way like a cult. Yes, it was one of those reality moments when you realize that cults aren't owned by religions only. Political groups and even some self-help groups....are working along lines of a cult.
Over the years, I've kinda sat and thought over this a good bit, and recognized around ten cult features which go across various lines....meaning it's all the same in political, religious or self-help cults.
1. Shunning. If you don't think like the insiders....then you have to be an outsider, and you tend to be shunned (even if you were a family member). It works that way now with politics, some self-help organizations, and various religions.
2. Denial of commitment is not allowed. Once 'Joe' says X....then the group more or less has to follow what Joe says....even if it is pretty stupid. It's like standing up in a black-run barber-shop and saying you lost faith in the Democratic Party.....they would not allow you to suggest a denial, and you'd likely get shunned.
3. Everyone in the group (doesn't matter if it religious, self-help or political)....is 'elite'. The 'you-are-special' routine is reinforced over and over....and you tend to feel hyped-up (at least for the first year).
4. It's always a us-versus-them scenario. Conflict....24-hours a day....seven days a week.....fifty-two weeks a year? Yep. Thanks to television....you get this theme all the time. The internet helps to reinforce this value.
5. There has to be an end....which justifies the means of getting there. Maybe it's a fraud or fake goal.....but it'll tie in nicely with the means.
6. Amusing as it sounds....everyone on the insider crew is hyped up to bring in new members and fresh cash. In a way, it's designed as a pyramid scheme.
7. Independent thought....thinking outside of the box? It cannot be allowed. The cult would falter quickly if a quarter of the insiders were paused and thinking over what was said or threatened.
8. Reality is shaken. First you get facts, then you get supposed-facts. Then you get suggested-facts. Then you get somewhat-true-facts. Then you get fake-facts. As long as you don't sit and ponder upon this....all the facts (even the fake ones) lead you to one single conclusion.
9. Generally, everyone with the insider crew is hyped up that they are saving themselves, the nation, or humanity. Saving is a common theme.....you tend to feel good about saving folks. Saving gives you warm feeling of accomplishment.
10. Once engaged in some argument, and losing....the cult guy will resort to fifth-grade behavior and just start yelling, or repeating phrases to reinforce their view. Debate-wise, they tend to lack skills or knowledge to win arguments.
As much as you'd like to think cults are just religious things....no, they exist in political spheres and self-help groups.
McCain
I sat looking at today's two top political headlines.
The first.....AZ Senator John McCain is said to have written up in his new book (The RestLess Wave) that he regrets picking Sarah Palin to be his VP in the 2008 presidential campaign. His preferred choice? Former Senator Joe Lieberman, who flipped from Democrat to Independent for Connecticut.
The odds of the John and Joe ticket doing much? Well....I think one of three GOP working-class Republicans would have declined to vote, and stayed home. It would have been one of the worst 'beatings' in GOP history. Maybe he should have just picked himself as the VP choice as well.
The second headline is that he's drafting up the funeral plans and says that Trump is on the list NOT invited, while VP Pence is invited.
Petty behavior....something for a 5th-grade kid.
I would hope that Pence would avoid this funeral.
Few ever go and read over the Keating Five episode (1989). I would recommend some review. All five senators involved....should have done a minimum of three years of time in a federal prison, and lost their jobs. McCain was one of the five. He, more or less, proved that you can get away with just about anything if you are a Senator.
The first.....AZ Senator John McCain is said to have written up in his new book (The RestLess Wave) that he regrets picking Sarah Palin to be his VP in the 2008 presidential campaign. His preferred choice? Former Senator Joe Lieberman, who flipped from Democrat to Independent for Connecticut.
The odds of the John and Joe ticket doing much? Well....I think one of three GOP working-class Republicans would have declined to vote, and stayed home. It would have been one of the worst 'beatings' in GOP history. Maybe he should have just picked himself as the VP choice as well.
The second headline is that he's drafting up the funeral plans and says that Trump is on the list NOT invited, while VP Pence is invited.
Petty behavior....something for a 5th-grade kid.
I would hope that Pence would avoid this funeral.
Few ever go and read over the Keating Five episode (1989). I would recommend some review. All five senators involved....should have done a minimum of three years of time in a federal prison, and lost their jobs. McCain was one of the five. He, more or less, proved that you can get away with just about anything if you are a Senator.
Thursday, 3 May 2018
Talking Thug
I sat and watched a piece today on YouTube where two guys were talking over President Trump and they came to this rare moment where they said....you know....he's the first thug-President we ever had, and they were proud of that belief.
I paused over that. To be honest, other than Andrew Jackson....I don't think anyone could match up with thug-potential to President Trump. Jackson....was probably twice the thug of Trump (probably Jackson would have pulled a pistol on more than one or two folks in his life, and wouldn't hesitate to get into a fist-fight).
The thing here is that if you lined up all the folks who voted for Trump....at least a quarter of them will tell you that they wanted a thug for President. And they'd swear some allegiance to him today, in some weird way.
This Kanye West episode? In this weird way, I think Kanye also sees this thug factor, and respects Trump because of it. The fact that some blacks are moving toward Kanye's view of Trump? Yeah....that's something that would not have happen with Reagan, Bush I, or Bush II. In fact, if I were a Democratic plans guy.....looking at a 8-year period from Trump, I might have some fear that one-third of all Blacks might be charmed by the thug-view, and vote GOP by the end.
So as you lay there tonight, and just looking over this whole weird experience.....just pause to think of Hillary sitting there, instead of Trump. How big of a thug could Hillary have been?
I paused over that. To be honest, other than Andrew Jackson....I don't think anyone could match up with thug-potential to President Trump. Jackson....was probably twice the thug of Trump (probably Jackson would have pulled a pistol on more than one or two folks in his life, and wouldn't hesitate to get into a fist-fight).
The thing here is that if you lined up all the folks who voted for Trump....at least a quarter of them will tell you that they wanted a thug for President. And they'd swear some allegiance to him today, in some weird way.
This Kanye West episode? In this weird way, I think Kanye also sees this thug factor, and respects Trump because of it. The fact that some blacks are moving toward Kanye's view of Trump? Yeah....that's something that would not have happen with Reagan, Bush I, or Bush II. In fact, if I were a Democratic plans guy.....looking at a 8-year period from Trump, I might have some fear that one-third of all Blacks might be charmed by the thug-view, and vote GOP by the end.
So as you lay there tonight, and just looking over this whole weird experience.....just pause to think of Hillary sitting there, instead of Trump. How big of a thug could Hillary have been?
The Ten Problems with the Democrats
I tend to see the Democratic Party in the US.....as being a 8-cylinder vehicle....with three cylinders misfiring....no tune-up in a decade....and a limited amount of fuel in the car in the car anyway, so it's not going far. So this is my list of problems facing them:
1. No real plan over immigration. If anything....some kind of Dream-Act I, which would lead onto Dream-Act II, which would lead onto Dream-Act III, and so on. Even some Democratic voters have figured out this game.
2. No real mid-term path. It's basically an effort to get enough House seats to force impeachment. To be honest, it doesn't sell well in red states or red districts. I would take a wild guess and say that even 20-percent of Democrats are laughing over the lack of a mid-term path.
3. Pelosi. Maybe in the 1990s....she had a brand-name. Today? Less so. They need to move on. Go ask a hundred Democrats in the south, and at least half will say that she's not a positive part of their sales pitch in southern states.
4. Hillary remaining. She's still there and part of the lack of a healing process since 2016.
5. Bernie Sanders remains. Among the far-radical elements of the Democratic voter crowd.....probably one-third of their base.....he's the ballistic missile of the party and carrying their future. But to the other two-thirds....they mostly shake their heads and would prefer to find some Bill Clinton-style guy.
6. The gun control topic. When you go to urban areas like Memphis, Atlanta, and Houston....locals (even Democrats) will tell you that they will only sign up to some marginal solution or repair. The hardline ideas? No. The rest of the nation? It's hard to get any of the red districts to go on this path.
7. Blacks taking the red-pill. Between November 2016 and November 2020....I expect 10-percent of the blacks who voted against Trump to cross the line and either refuse to vote Democrat, or refuse to vote at all. Some are asking questions and the Democratic Party can't really resolve the problems. Is a ten-percent loss of black votes a big deal? No....but it's a bad indicator of a trend over the next decade.
8. Sales package with CNN. Bluntly....the Democrats are hinged to both MSNBC and CNN selling their pitch. As far as I can see....CNN has reached a stage where their prime-time message is marginal. I think CNN still matters with crisis events, but no one really cares to watch an hour-long show each night on evil-Trump matters.
9. The comedians, actors and prominent folks on their anti-Trump agenda. It have been well focused in 2016, but now is laughed off by a majority of people. Go try and imagine this gimmick for eight straight years.
10. Finally, as soon as the election wrapped up....some focus team with the party should have met....discussed their weak points and wrote the theme for 2017/2018. A clear path should have been on everyone's minds. Where is that solutions for the middle-class Democrat? Non-existent? This sole group....working-class Democrats in the rural regions of the nation....almost forgotten for two decades now.
1. No real plan over immigration. If anything....some kind of Dream-Act I, which would lead onto Dream-Act II, which would lead onto Dream-Act III, and so on. Even some Democratic voters have figured out this game.
2. No real mid-term path. It's basically an effort to get enough House seats to force impeachment. To be honest, it doesn't sell well in red states or red districts. I would take a wild guess and say that even 20-percent of Democrats are laughing over the lack of a mid-term path.
3. Pelosi. Maybe in the 1990s....she had a brand-name. Today? Less so. They need to move on. Go ask a hundred Democrats in the south, and at least half will say that she's not a positive part of their sales pitch in southern states.
4. Hillary remaining. She's still there and part of the lack of a healing process since 2016.
5. Bernie Sanders remains. Among the far-radical elements of the Democratic voter crowd.....probably one-third of their base.....he's the ballistic missile of the party and carrying their future. But to the other two-thirds....they mostly shake their heads and would prefer to find some Bill Clinton-style guy.
6. The gun control topic. When you go to urban areas like Memphis, Atlanta, and Houston....locals (even Democrats) will tell you that they will only sign up to some marginal solution or repair. The hardline ideas? No. The rest of the nation? It's hard to get any of the red districts to go on this path.
7. Blacks taking the red-pill. Between November 2016 and November 2020....I expect 10-percent of the blacks who voted against Trump to cross the line and either refuse to vote Democrat, or refuse to vote at all. Some are asking questions and the Democratic Party can't really resolve the problems. Is a ten-percent loss of black votes a big deal? No....but it's a bad indicator of a trend over the next decade.
8. Sales package with CNN. Bluntly....the Democrats are hinged to both MSNBC and CNN selling their pitch. As far as I can see....CNN has reached a stage where their prime-time message is marginal. I think CNN still matters with crisis events, but no one really cares to watch an hour-long show each night on evil-Trump matters.
9. The comedians, actors and prominent folks on their anti-Trump agenda. It have been well focused in 2016, but now is laughed off by a majority of people. Go try and imagine this gimmick for eight straight years.
10. Finally, as soon as the election wrapped up....some focus team with the party should have met....discussed their weak points and wrote the theme for 2017/2018. A clear path should have been on everyone's minds. Where is that solutions for the middle-class Democrat? Non-existent? This sole group....working-class Democrats in the rural regions of the nation....almost forgotten for two decades now.
Tuesday, 1 May 2018
Larry Summers and the Lack of History
Larry Summers talking today about an 'unsustainable' period of growth (GDP) for the rest of the Trump era:
“Yes, we are growing at a reasonably rapid rate, but it’s taking unsustainable fiscal deficits to drive us to that point. It’s taking unsustainable increases in credit to drive us to that point. It’s taking unsustainable increases in asset prices. You can always generate a sugar high. The real problem for us is not achieving growth, but achieving sustained, healthy growth with a financial environment that’s sustainable.”
Here's the thing....the US has a history when GDP growth existed....well over 30 years:
Year, CD-rate, GDP-rate
1965, 4.88-percent, 6.5-percent
1966, 6.14-percent, 6.6-percent
1967, 5.95-percent, 2.7-percent
1968, 6.39-percent, 4.9-percent
1969, 8.95-percent, 3.1-percent
1970, 9.06-percent, .2-percent
1971, 6.06-percent, 3.3-percent
1972, 5.65-percent, 5.2-percent
1973, 10.71-percent, 5.6-percent
1974, 12.06-percent, minus .5-percent
1975, 7.89-percent, minus .2-percent
1976, 6.31-percent, 5.4-percent
1977, 6.96-percent, 4.6-percent
1978, 11.28-percent, 5.6-percent
1979, 13.97-percent, 3.2-percent
1980, 17.74-percent, minus .2-percent
1981, 17.98-percent, 2.6-percent
1982, 15.12-percent, minus 1.9 percent
1983, 10.17-percent, 4.6-percent
1984, 12.08-percent, 7.3-percent
1985, 9.6-percent, 4.2-percent
1986, 7.83-percent, 3.5-percent
1987, 8.19-percent, 3.5-percent (Black Friday Year)
1988, 9.28-percent, 4.2-percent
1989, 10.40-percent, 3.7-percent
1990, 8.57-percent, 1.9-percent
1991, 7.17-percent, minus .1-percent
1992, 4.42-percent, 3.6-percent
1993, 3.39-percent, 2.7-percent
1994, 6.78-percent, 4.0-percent
1995, 6.71-percent, 2.7-percent
1996, 5.75-percent, 3.8-percent,
1997, 5.90-percent, 4.5-percent
1998, 5.67-percent, 4.5-percent
1999, 6.07-percent, 4.7-percent
2000, 6.94-percent, 4.1-percent
2001, 5.45-percent, 1.0-percent
2002, 2.16-percent, 1.8-percent
2003, 1.30-percent, 2.8-percent
2004, 2.66-percent, 3.8-percent
2005, 4.62-percent, 3.3-percent
As you can tell....the Bush era was the point where numbers were starting to decline, and continued on into the Obama era.
Not that I really cast doubts on Larry Summers....but he has not real concept of what the US did prior to the Bush era. Part of this blame? Going naturally back to CD rates and all the 'free' money of the Fed.
“Yes, we are growing at a reasonably rapid rate, but it’s taking unsustainable fiscal deficits to drive us to that point. It’s taking unsustainable increases in credit to drive us to that point. It’s taking unsustainable increases in asset prices. You can always generate a sugar high. The real problem for us is not achieving growth, but achieving sustained, healthy growth with a financial environment that’s sustainable.”
Here's the thing....the US has a history when GDP growth existed....well over 30 years:
Year, CD-rate, GDP-rate
1965, 4.88-percent, 6.5-percent
1966, 6.14-percent, 6.6-percent
1967, 5.95-percent, 2.7-percent
1968, 6.39-percent, 4.9-percent
1969, 8.95-percent, 3.1-percent
1970, 9.06-percent, .2-percent
1971, 6.06-percent, 3.3-percent
1972, 5.65-percent, 5.2-percent
1973, 10.71-percent, 5.6-percent
1974, 12.06-percent, minus .5-percent
1975, 7.89-percent, minus .2-percent
1976, 6.31-percent, 5.4-percent
1977, 6.96-percent, 4.6-percent
1978, 11.28-percent, 5.6-percent
1979, 13.97-percent, 3.2-percent
1980, 17.74-percent, minus .2-percent
1981, 17.98-percent, 2.6-percent
1982, 15.12-percent, minus 1.9 percent
1983, 10.17-percent, 4.6-percent
1984, 12.08-percent, 7.3-percent
1985, 9.6-percent, 4.2-percent
1986, 7.83-percent, 3.5-percent
1987, 8.19-percent, 3.5-percent (Black Friday Year)
1988, 9.28-percent, 4.2-percent
1989, 10.40-percent, 3.7-percent
1990, 8.57-percent, 1.9-percent
1991, 7.17-percent, minus .1-percent
1992, 4.42-percent, 3.6-percent
1993, 3.39-percent, 2.7-percent
1994, 6.78-percent, 4.0-percent
1995, 6.71-percent, 2.7-percent
1996, 5.75-percent, 3.8-percent,
1997, 5.90-percent, 4.5-percent
1998, 5.67-percent, 4.5-percent
1999, 6.07-percent, 4.7-percent
2000, 6.94-percent, 4.1-percent
2001, 5.45-percent, 1.0-percent
2002, 2.16-percent, 1.8-percent
2003, 1.30-percent, 2.8-percent
2004, 2.66-percent, 3.8-percent
2005, 4.62-percent, 3.3-percent
As you can tell....the Bush era was the point where numbers were starting to decline, and continued on into the Obama era.
Not that I really cast doubts on Larry Summers....but he has not real concept of what the US did prior to the Bush era. Part of this blame? Going naturally back to CD rates and all the 'free' money of the Fed.
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