SNL, Pete Davidson, and the Crenshaw 'Joke'

Over the past weekend, I observed the Crenshaw 'joke' from Saturday Night Live from Pete Davidson.  I watched it one single time, and then had this fairly negative view of the joke, the intent, and the lack of responsibility.  So, this 'joke' and the whole SNL show thing has been on my mind.

I've come to three observations:

1.  In 1975, across the entire US.....there were probably a grand total of 300 true comedians (either doing stand-up, TV, or movies).  There might have been more....but these were folks were making a living and you tended to recognize.  

Today?  There's probably over 8,000 folks attempting to do comedy....either via stand-up, TV, or movies....of which the bulk of them...probably 90-percent...don't measure up to the 300 folks from 1975.  In this case, Pete Davidson just isn't a comedian, and he's attempting to make up for the lack of humor with critical punchlines that you'd expect out of some fifth-grade kid trying to insult another fifth-grade kid.  

2.  Once someone today (2018) has gone and truly insulted someone....they have no ability to go back and apologize for bad behavior.  It's a talent or skill that they've never developed.  Important?

Johnny Carson never openly insulted anyone in his entire life, and basically never had to apologize for any bad behavior.  He could get away with it.  Same with Buddy Hackett.  Same with any of the folks from the Andy Griffith Show, or Gilligan's Island.  Pete Davidson? He probably needs to develop this talent because I don't think he's done....he's got dozens of other folks to insult over his career.

3.  Finally, I come to Saturday Night Live.  When it started in the 1975....for probably two years, I felt they had something unusual.  Every show clicked.  By the mid-1980s....I felt less enthusiastic about the show.  Over the past decade, there might have been a couple of sketches which worked but the bulk of it simply isn't comedy anymore....it's something 'else'.

Maybe it's time that SNL just retired itself.  Bring in some Dance-Fever Show, or Soul-Train Show, or perhaps some Saturday night roller derby action, or even a celebrity crash derby show.  But to continue this fifth-grader type humor, and pretend they measure up to the crew from 1975 or 1977?  No.  

South Africa: 2038

I've been back from this South Africa travel episode now....for ten days.  It was my first, and likely last trip to the region, but it dwells heavily upon my mind.....so I sat and pondered the past couple of days. This is an essay of where I see South Africa in twenty years.

1.  I don't see it surviving as one single united nation.  Between the political climate, the government acquisition of farmlands likely to occur, and massive unemployment....there's very little to keep the country united.  My humble guess is that five to eight states will come out of this revolutionary period, with the Western Cape likely to be the largest 'piece'.

2.  There's little to nothing to hold young blacks to the region, and no hope for jobs.  I think at least three to five million over this twenty-year period will simply up and leave....either for the US or Europe.

3.  Drug trafficking will simply continue and escalate, with a drug-war likely to occur among gangs in Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Duban.  Township police protection will be demanded....and ultimately fail.

4.  Bank failures or banking corruption practices will become a monthly topic, with trust dwindling for most folks in South Africa.  While people need a banking vehicle to exist....it won't work if half the nation distrusts the majority of banks.

5.  Drought and lack of water will remain a topic on the Western Cape for the next two decades.  The amusing thing here....if you had some real leaders....real capital investment, you'd have a dozen reservoirs existing, and a massive amount of water for irrigation projects, and make half of the Cape an agricultural paradise, with fresh fruit and vegetables available for the locals and to sell. 

6.  Finally, social media is likely providing a vehicle which will be the downfall of the ANC (the African National Congress Party), where their shortfalls and 10,000 promises will finally be open to public scrutiny.  But here's the thing....once they splinter up and dissolve, you will end up with numerous parties and agendas which will make stability impossible to attain.

Acosta and Trump

I sat and watched that clip of the exchange between Jim Acosta and President Trump at least ten times. 

Once the intern stepped forward to take the mic...you can observe Acosta using his hand deny her and assert that he wasn't going to let her do her job.  Suspending his privilege for a month....ought to be the punishment here. 

But I would go one more step....replace the mic-handling business with a Marine Gunnery Sergeant.  Once Acosta would have refused the directive and then put his hand on the Sergeant....the Marine would have laid him flat on the carpet.  After that, Acosta would have understood the message. 

The Big Question

What if the Democrats go and make the entire period of 2019 and 2020....on some massive Trump investigation period, with zero 'other' accomplishments?

Two whole years, with soap-opera-like theatrics....CNN, Fox, and the networks hyped on the 'story'....and absolutely nothing done beyond that?

It's an interesting question to sit and speculate upon, with the odds now that the House will have just enough seats for the Democrats to control the message.

I anticipate three things out of this period:

1.  A massive shutdown of the government will occur over budget talks in 2019, and this shutdown will likely go beyond 90 days, with some federal workers in massive despair over their lack of a pay-check and a catastrophic 'doomed' landscape for politics in general.

2.  Another Supreme Court seat will come up to be filled, and we will get another round of Kavanaugh-like opera.  But this time, with a likely 56-seat situation for the GOP....it might be less theatrics.

3.  A majority of Americans will be fed up with politics in general by 2020....fed up with television news....fed up with journalists....with open confrontation taking place.

If you thought the last two years were just a marginal TV political reality show.....get prepared, we are doubling up now.

The Non-Existent Swift Effect

There were probably a hundred odd political 'games' out of 2018, but the one that interested me a great deal....was the Tennessee Senate race (Blackburn - R, Bredesen -D).

About a month ago, all hell broke loose when pop singer Taylor Swift stood up and did a big social media call out.....to support Bredesen.  At the time, everyone was hyped up....all chatty...that this one single endorsement would figure into the 18-year old voter group, and bring tens of thousands of votes over to Phil Bredesen.

Well....as the smoked has cleared....it's an eleven point margin for Blackburn.

The Swift-effect?  There is virtually no indication of an effect.  I think if the PhD guys sat and did a survey over it....there were probably about a thousand 'kids' who stood up and said Swift helped to settle their mind over the election.

So this brings me to the real discussion.  If so-and-so actor or singer comes up to chat over some candidate....does it really matter?  Thirty years ago, I would have said it's absolutely zero on the scale.  Today?  I would suggest it might have moved up from zero to maybe one or two percent chance. 

Now, if this was a catchy comment....made by Clint Eastwood....it might be remembered and thought about.  But this is like you asking your Waffle House pancake guy what he thought, or the exotic dancer at the Tin Star bar, or the Piggly Wiggly cashier....what they thought about election choices.  It just doesn't happen that way in the real world, unless you accept advice left and right...from strangers on the street.

Why did we listen to the journalists hyping this a month ago?  That's the thing about this.  Thirty years ago....you would have dismissed the Taylor Swift comment in sixty seconds flat.  Somehow, it now dwells on our mind and and we seriously think that Swift might flip 100,000 votes. 

Scientists ought to study this Swift effect and talk about how you get nothing, out of nothing. 

Amazon? Crystal City and Queens?

I've sat for a day reviewing the decision to split the new 2nd headquarters between Queens and Crystal City.

I worked in the Pentagon area for 3.5 years and lived about 1-to-2 miles from the Pentagon and Crystal City.  I know the area well.

On the miserability index....saddling another 25,000 workers into Crystal City?  It's a solid '10'.

First, to reach Crystal City by car....you have to use the interstate chain either from DC, Maryland, south heading toward Richmond, or the Fairfax option.  All of them right now....maxed out with DC workers and Pentagon folks.  How another 25,000 workers transit in each day?  Unknown.

Maybe they were brought enough to buy a parking garage area on the south end of the METRO subway system.  Crystal City has a METRO link which goes south for about four miles, and then ends.  If you had some massive garage at that end point, you could herd the Amazon folks into that garage and force them to use the METRO for the last four miles. 

Second, housing.  In 2013, for a studio place (15 by 35).....I was paying $1,150 for place which I'd regard as basic and nothing special....with heat, cooling and electricity.  Today, it's probably near $1,300.  By 2021, with Amazon there....I'll bet they push the rent for the studio up to $2,000.  A two-bedroom place?  Probably by that point.....for a decent place....it might be near $2,750.

Buying a house?  Right in 2013, $400k was the basic standard, and for a better house....you needed $700k.  With Amazon in the local area?  I doubt if you can find anything for less than $750k.  Most of the houses south of Arlington will be rising in the range of 40-percent by 2021.  A guy who bought a great property back in 2005?  He won't just double his investment, but maybe even triple it by 2030.

What's Crystal City like?  It's an odd neighborhood.  Massive 10 to 15 story buildings for about a mile on either side of the road.  One Metro station in the middle.  Reagan International about one mile to the east.  Six to eight hotels. 

Crime?  Well, that's the odd thing.  Virginia cops are fairly aggressive.  What you found in DC.....simply didn't exist in Arlington or Crystal City. 

Eating establishments?  In Crystal City....at least in 2013, there were probably forty places where you could eat out.  My guess is that will double by 2021. 

The odd factor here?  Tons of Pentagon contractors will likely go and saddle up with Amazon, and the pay-scale that the Pentagon was used to....will escalate big-time.  The cost-of-living factor for GI's and civilian workers?  It'll have to go up by 50-percent. 

Arlington forced to add onto the 'Blue Line'?  I would take a guess that another 5-mile link will be added by 2030.  Maybe getting the link as far south as Woodbridge or Dale City, where you could park your car and avoid the interstate entirely.

Positive decision?  No.  I just can't see the logic to either Crystal City or Queens.  It's added onto the cost factor of salaries and made working at either site a miserable experience. 

728 Days

Here's the thing about today being election day....the clock starts ticking today....for the next election (3 November 2020).

As much as you think it's a relief to get over this election business and get everyone calmed down....nope, that clock is ticking by midnight.

If you go back forty years ago, in most states....you were lucky in a mid-term if 50-percent of the voters showed up.  But things have intensified and now it's a dramatic event. 

In some ways, it's become like a national circus touring the nation and everyone hyped up over a great act, and wanting the circus to be part of their everyday life.  In the three rings, there's a clown act....some tigers jumping hoops....some lusty lady swinging on ropes....an elephant dancing....some tame horses pretending to be wild horses....and some dude in a suit who seems to know the right moment to tug on your heart.

So get out your calendar and project out 728 days.  Prepare for everything to repeat itself again.