The Banking 'Issue'

 The simple nature of this banking 'problem'?

Well....you have a bank that thought commercial real estate....from hotels to malls...could be built, developed and operated...paying back the bank for its involvement in acceptable risk.  

So Covid came along, and whatever strategy existed for office buildings, theaters, hotels, stores, or even bank buildings themselves....could not focus and carry on....paying the bank loan back.

The bank's problem?  Well...it was now stuck with a structure of a present value (say $10-million) when the bank loan from 2018 (20 years) was for $60-million.  Selling it for faked-up value?  Now impossible.

Then you add the car problem....where people were convinced that a $80k car was reasonable, and over eight years of your stable job situation....you could pay the loan back.  Well....that strategy also went south.

The bank recovers the $80k 2-year old car, which probably is worth $45k max at present, but the loan money missing is $12,000.  The used car market presently?  That's also part of the story....so the car probably won't sell for more than $40k.

Credit card also in the mix?  Yes.    Some folks stand there with $20,000 in debt, and can't make the minimum of $1,000 a month.  

Home loans?  Same story.

Cities with loans?  If you had 40-odd businesses shut down over the past year.....you probably aren't making as much on property tax or sales tax.  

Did we have this type of mess in 1929?   No.  That bank failure era was mostly due to mismanagement of the vault contents.....with the bank books and the contents not being equal.  

FDIC having the assets to cover this?  No. 

What I tend to expect?  Three things:

1.  I expect some rushed-up meetings with the Fed and the White House....probably by early July.  The Fed will quietly admit a minimum of 20 bank failures to arrive by the conclusion of July.

2.  I expect the full point lessen on the prime rate.....to simply speed things up on the collapse.

3.  At some point in mid-July, I expect a Monday night live speech by the President to reassure the public. 

4.  Shortly after the speech....I expect gold and Bit-Coin to jump in a massive way.  At this point, more than 40-million Americans will attempt to remove cash from their accounts....ONLY to find that there is a cash-limit of $250 per day, and $750 per week.

5.  I expect by mid-August....more than half the banks in the US are under some type of review and reorganization.  

By this point, President Biden will admit that there is a limit to what can be done, and that Treasury notes apparently can't be marketed now.....because consumers don't consider them to be trusted.

Trying to scare people?  No....just reviewing 1929 history, and things appear in some similar nature.  

Beep-Beep Story

 California has a draft bill (SB 961) which basically says....if you sell a new car in the state, it has to have the technology to track the GPS location, the speed on that road, and to have a warning 'sound' to tell you that you've exceeded the limit by 10 mph.

I'll just say if you went to most car companies....they have the general tracking technology already, but you'd have to pay 'extra' for the detailed map which has up-to-date speeds.  As for the warning sound?  It's probably a 8-minute problem for some Japanese guy to wrap up.  

The question is....would you really want to pay extra for the monthly updates to the map technology, and do you really need a 'beep' to tell you that you exceeded the limit?

Would the beep sound eventually be replaced by some tune....like 'Highway to Hell'?

All of this just adding to the average cost of a car?  Well....yeah, that does seem to be the path.

Who Is Lee Oswald Today?

 My 2024 version of 1963's Lee Oswald?

He's a vet...probably having done a couple of years in the Army.  He's probably from some urban situation of the 2010 era.  

He ended up recruited by some foundation group that has some Republican agenda, and has been paid on various occasions to don a 'uniform', and carry Americana flags while wearing sunglasses.

About once a month, some guy from the foundation group comes by and leaves $3,000 in a cash envelop....for work accomplished.

On his social media page....he's anti-Biden...pro-Trump.  

He's lived in five or six locations since leaving the Army, and is on some medication for anxiety and panic issues.  He hasn't been on a date since 2019.  He games in his spare time.

The CIA/FBI have used in twenty different activities since Covid.  

Oswald-Like Scenario For Joe Biden?

 I paused over this idea for the past weekend.

The way it would work....about a week prior to the convention....with President Biden on a speech-tour....a MAGA-character would attempt to take down the President.  

Based on a CIA-FBI plan....this MAGA individual would be shot in the process to ensure the story does not unfold. 

There would be a fake Twitter account, which this person seems  very active for the past year....making  radical pro-Trump statements.

The original plan would be told to Biden, that  they would stop the guy before it got real serious.  But I suspect the Fed agenda would be to have Joe Biden out, Harris in, and the Convention is a replacement 'game'.

Turbo Week: 19 Aug 2024

 We are about 100 days away from the Democratic Convention in Chicago....scheduled for 19 August.

I suspect this will end up being more of a circus show, with massive violence, and news journalists mostly confused over what they see and think.

Delegates in a state of fear?  Yeah, and it's possible that a hundred of them decide by the evening of 19 August....to pack up and exit Chicago as the sun rises on 20 August.

An Expelled Story

 Back in the late 1980s....I worked under a senior officer in the Air Force who had a niece, and about once a month....he would relate the newest 'woes' of the college-age gal....in some Ohio public university.

Over the course of a year (I seem to remember this was the 2nd year of her adventure in college)....she'd been detained by the local police on three occasions (all alcohol-related, with minor damage to some bar/restaurant)....the niece's dad got dragged into a pay-up situation....around $4,000 in damages and court fees.  

At some point after that....there was some drunken fight in the dorm and the college finally called up dad and said 'finished'.  There had been apparently a warning or two issued prior to this....which dad was unaware of.  Dad came....picked up the daughter, and retreated to the house to restructure the situation.

Some alcohol rehab followed, and dad's plan to enroll her into another state public university had a problem.  As you apply and lay out what you see as a transfer....they will ask for the transcript, and the reason for the transfer is listed.  The new college said 'no'.....basically, they didn't want the trouble.

So a new application to yet another college was attempted....same story.

Three months pass then with no update from my boss....then he talks over the latest news....that the gal has been accepted into a private small college, with most all of the 2nd year required as a 'repeat' (meaning a 5th year required).  The selling point?  Well....this was in a no-name town with marginal alcohol opportunities.  

It was with this story that I realized that colleges do have a 'weapon' to use with problem-children, and rarely do people ever grasp that.

The Last Time I Went To A Red Lobster Restaurant

 The last time?  Probably in mid-summer 1992.

To be honest, I wasn't impressed and the place was mostly run by a couple of college kids as management, with 17-year old kids as the primary crew.

I read this AM....Red Lobster is up for bankruptcy, unless they find a new owner.  

I didn't know it....they've been around since 1968.  

How they fell apart?  Well....it goes to some idea that they could offer something called 'endless-shrimp' for a special price, and customers went overboard....with management really not grasping the cost impact.