Three Odd Things I Noticed Yesterday

 1.  This dead guy in Minneapolis story.  This Pretti-character was NOT at a active protest...when the 'event' occurred.

The protesters arrived after the shooting. 

It seems he was strictly there impede ICE..

2.  HUD Secretary Scott Turner gave a  Congressional talk yesterday:

- For 2024 alone....over $5-B were in "payment errors".

- Some funs went to 30k-plus dead folks.

- Finally, it's obvious that some government-backed mortgages went to non-Americans citizens.

3.  Someone asked Grok/AI if civil war was going on....how would it look:

•  50 to 200 Mini-Mogadishus simultaneously going on

•  Blue cities besieged by red countryside (food/fuel/power cut off)

•  Red rural areas subjected to drone strikes/infrastructure attacks by federal forces

•  Assassination campaigns against governors, judges, CEOs

•  Ethnic/ideological cleansing in mixed areas

Grok, in this assessment....merely projects a path....a 1860-like situation where Civil War corrects various wrongs.

Explaining Ilhan Omar's Wealth 'Surge'

The accusation is....Omar's wealth path went from $15/20k range....to $15-M in roughly six years.    I spent 90 minutes yesterday looking at this story.

So...it begins/ends with Ilhan Omar's husband, Tim Mynett, who co-owns in some way....eStCru LLC (a California wine company)....which started up in 2020.  No one argues about the ownership....that it was a California wine operation or  that it started in 2020.

But then you come to the idea of  a 'ghost-operation'....a wine company in name  only (not the grapes or the complex).  This is where folks argue. 

Any mingled facts?  Oddly, there is a registered trademark for a label...."The Devil's Lie," for the wine (whether  real or faked-up).

Footnote here....any idiot can register a wine-label. 

Somewhere in 2024....someone (left mostly unnamed)....came up to sue the two guys running the wine operation for fraud, claiming a sum of $300k was invested for a 18-percent ownership.....but was getting zero on return.  At the time....the  wine company oddly said they weren't making money...because of Covid.

But Omar's husband was putting out financial disclosures showing eStCru's value jumping from $15k in 2023 to $1M-$5M in 2024, plus another firm (Rose Lake) at $5M-$25M. 

None of this made a lot of sense.

So far....no one has shown a building or sign with the sign 'The Devil's Lie'.

My best guess?  It's possible that you can buy unlabeled bottles of wine (say some $5 a bottle type)....slap a funny label on it...market it as a Omar-product, and sell it for $25 a bottle where your political supporters could buy and support your personal 'label' or brand. Nothing illegal about that.

I did do a consumer search....just on that particular type wine...getting nothing, which is a bit odd.

Is this a 'Breaking-Bad' type of fake business to help hide cash flow?  You'd have to create a ton of fake paperwork....to make banks/IRS happy.  Course, if you were making $5-M a year....maybe it's worth the effort.

On my truth-index (1-10)?  It's still at zero....not enough evidence to say anything...other than wealth exists.

The Problem With Rico-Act Situations

 A couple of years ago....I watched a podcast of a older retired lawyer...who'd done Rico-Act defense for 20-plus years.  I came away with four observations:

1.  99.9-percent of lawyers have never done any Rico-Act defense situations.  It's highly specialized and lawyers who lose....rarely get a second opportunity.

2.  The people accused of Rico-Act problems....aren't typically working-class people....they are in the high income levels.

3.  The chief strategy?  Well....to either show the prosecution screwed-up or failed in evidence-gathering, or to get a deal.

4.  The longer that a Rico-case goes on.....the deeper into debt that the accused goes.  So it makes sense to admit some level of guilt....get a deal, and to do as little time as possible.

So, you lay out the Minneapolis landscape....I would imagine there's well over a couple-hundred individuals consulting with lawyers and discovering in the whole state of Minnesota...there's  probably fewer  than three legal firms (my guess) that handle stuff like Rico.

The cost factor also on their mind?  Yeah....you aren't talking about $20k. 

The other odd factor?  You know a guy....who knows a guy, who knows a guy.  So tangled up in this mess that you are attached to.....there's probably multiple other characters....with the same Rico charges.  The prosecutor goes to the weakest guy and says...here's the deal...spill the beans on character one and two, and you do three months in some jail.  

This Rico-mess consuming 2026, 2027 and 2028?  Yeah....those with the most to lose....will fight to control the pain/punishment.  They are likely to be the ones financially broke at the end.

How Many Mini-Mogadishu's Are There In The US?

 I sat and pondered upon the concept.  In general....over the past fifty year....Mogadishu (capital of Somalia) was this place that developed into a commerce-hub....went through a deconstruction-phase....stepped through a war-lord era (several)....finally developed a form of gov't where neighborhoods/clans/groups all have a 'piece' of ownership/crap that they say is theirs.

This 'crap' is worthless but the folks have bought into so much of it....there's really not much of a alternate path.

At this  point in pondering....I started a list. How many American cities have developed into mini-Mogadishu's?

Seattle, Portland, SF, LA, San Diego, Boston, Philly, Baltimore, Chicago, New Orleans, NY City, Minneapolis?

Is there some 'rehab'?  So far...with the actual real Mogadishu....no solution has been found.

My question is....if you lived in the 'shadow' of a mini-Mogadishu....would you have much patience to stick it out....or would you be finding a exit-door to leave?

Are We In A Insurgency: Yes or No?

 An insurgency is essentially a prolonged armed rebellion, continued riots or uprising against an established government or authority.

It is typically carried out by a group of rebels (insurgents) who lack the resources or recognition to wage conventional war. 

It often involves guerrilla tactics like hit-and-run attacks, sabotage, and efforts to win over the local population's support, rather than direct confrontations with superior military forces. 

The goal? You usually overthrow the government, achieve level of independence (or at least think that), or force political change.

I sat and pondered this today.  Based on Minneapolis events of the past two weeks....yeah....I think we are in the beginning stage of a insurgency. 

A Medal For Donuts?

 Over my 22 years of service....I wrote medals paperwork for a dozen enlisted guys and even drafted medal paperwork for a couple of officers.  Toward the end....I could write  nominate paperwork in 30 minutes....re-draft it over another 30 minutes, and the 'boss' would approve it 95-percent of the time.

It was a skill.

Today....I've watched video  off Nat'l Guardsmen brought onto 'duty' in Minneapolis. Their primary duty?  Well....to hand out coffee, tea, hot coco, and donuts to protest folks....while wearing yellow vests in Army uniform.

The general chatter is these 50-to-100 folks will be on duty for 2 weeks, and the governor says....he'll hand the bill to the Pentagon to pay.  Personally....I doubt that they will pay.

To also be honest....you could have rounded up city employees to do the same thing....but most would be fearful of being assaulted.

So you do the math....junior enlisted....for a two-week pay situation...you'd be paid  around $1,500 after taxes.  You literally make twice as much as a Dunkin-Donuts guys....just wearing the combat uniform.

Medal for the two week duty?  If I were 'Sarge'....yeah, I would write the nomination letter.....knowing that Colonel  X would never sign his name for a stupid medal handing out coffee and donuts.

Yeah, it is the most stupid thing that I can imagine....but it's BS-like crap that you'd do in Afghanistan.....to make  people happy...except you are doing it in Minneapolis.  Anti-insurgency BS......for  crazy dimwits.

What Plays Out In Minnesota After 17 Feb?

 Well....from their state House of Representative....the governor will go through a impeachment process.  There are enough votes to carry it  to the next level...the state Senate....of the 67 members....34 are Democrat....so the measure (likely to hit in mid-March) will likely fail.

However, there's some odd complications.

Based on weekend developments....the Lt Governor (Peggy Flanagan) is conntected to the protest crowd (via Signal, the messaging system used to connect the protest folks to their 'mission').

It's now likely that a 2nd impeachment will be called on Flanagan.  I also think the AG will be dragged  onto a impeachment effort.

So....this brings up the 34 Dem's in the Senate.  At least one is facing fed-fraud charges, and I'm likely to be suspicious that it's only ONE.  In four weeks....there could be several Senate members drawn into a bigger investigation.

If the two or three Dem  members  of the Senate are detained/arrested....the majority shifts, and the impeachment follows....of probably more than just the Governor.

I should add the  head-guy of the Senate....while NOT under a fraud investigation....he is under some ethical investigation....for failing to note connections to non-profits.

So there's a fair number of folks who are in a tough situation.