For the remainder of 2018, here is how the school shooting plays out;
1. The kid. I'm guessing about 48 hours after the shooting....most of his drugs have worn off, and he's sitting in the jail without any gaming 'set'....maybe for the first time in ten years. His reality is starting to return, and he is contemplating all the screw-ups. On a suicide watch? Yeah, probably. Zero chance he'll ever walk free, and about a 50-percent chance for a death sentence. He probably doesn't remember much and says he was in a daze.
2. The schools. Well, for the remainder of this school-year, it'll be a hyped-up mess....sixty-percent of kids all anti-gun and social-meddling this to the ninth degree. The opposite group....the kids who always oppose stuff, and the pro-gun kids....will be picked on. With two weeks, some pro-gun parents will demand face-to-face teacher meetings and principal meetings. Some teachers will bluntly push back and say they are anti-gun teachers. This will set off a new mess that the school boards can't handle. Ability to accomplish anything for classes? No, don't go and anticipate anything getting done for the next four months. Some teachers will be on a list to fire (the pro-gun folks as well as the anti-gun folks). Various fights will occur and blame will be tossed onto both groups.
3. The 17 House members from Florida who are Republican? They run in November's election and they are screwed. The kids will go against them and the wave will be very negative. At least half of these seats are now permanently lost.
4. Adjacent states? Social media will carry this anti-gun wave across to other states and trigger in-house fights....the pro-crowd versus the anti-crowd.
Monday, 19 February 2018
When You Don't Have School Discipline
As a kid in rural Alabama, I don't remember the topic of suspending or dismissing a kid from school until probably the 10th grade. To be honest, you just didn't have 'drama-types' who needed the suspensions.
With all of this Florida-shooting hype, someone sat down and dug out the Broward County School Discipline Agreement.
It's an odd piece...signed by local city/county judges, the state attorney general, and the Sheriff. The school system has to comply with this local document.
So in the midst of this agreement, there is a list of things that you will NOT be suspended or expelled upon....if they were to occur. In these cases, you get a warning, a lecture, and possibly detention (meaning a couple of hours per week in study hall).
The list: all student misbehavior, disrupting or interfering with class or school functions, fighting in hallways or classrooms, theft of less than $300, vandalism (if less than $1,000), disorderly conduct (against other students, or teachers), trespassing, criminal mischief (unclear what the heck this means), gambling, loitering, prowling, harassment, alcohol use or drunkenness, any possession of Cannabis or drug paraphernalia, threats, obstructing justice with or without violence.
In most companies, the hint of any of these acts....would be enough for HR to bring you in and fire you on the spot.
In the school? Totally acceptable. The worse that you might get is extra study hall. You could show up daily after consuming half-a-bottle of whiskey....no problem. You could start a fight every other day.....no problem. You could disrupt your science class daily....no problem.
So I just look at this accepted behavior deal and can judge the school system as a failure. The fact that judges and the sheriff signed off on it? They are just as much part of the failed system. They are themselves a failure.
You can draw up a long list of failures that brought this idiot kid to the event of last week. The FBI failed. The local cops failed. The school discipline failed.
With all of this Florida-shooting hype, someone sat down and dug out the Broward County School Discipline Agreement.
It's an odd piece...signed by local city/county judges, the state attorney general, and the Sheriff. The school system has to comply with this local document.
So in the midst of this agreement, there is a list of things that you will NOT be suspended or expelled upon....if they were to occur. In these cases, you get a warning, a lecture, and possibly detention (meaning a couple of hours per week in study hall).
The list: all student misbehavior, disrupting or interfering with class or school functions, fighting in hallways or classrooms, theft of less than $300, vandalism (if less than $1,000), disorderly conduct (against other students, or teachers), trespassing, criminal mischief (unclear what the heck this means), gambling, loitering, prowling, harassment, alcohol use or drunkenness, any possession of Cannabis or drug paraphernalia, threats, obstructing justice with or without violence.
In most companies, the hint of any of these acts....would be enough for HR to bring you in and fire you on the spot.
In the school? Totally acceptable. The worse that you might get is extra study hall. You could show up daily after consuming half-a-bottle of whiskey....no problem. You could start a fight every other day.....no problem. You could disrupt your science class daily....no problem.
So I just look at this accepted behavior deal and can judge the school system as a failure. The fact that judges and the sheriff signed off on it? They are just as much part of the failed system. They are themselves a failure.
You can draw up a long list of failures that brought this idiot kid to the event of last week. The FBI failed. The local cops failed. The school discipline failed.
Sunday, 18 February 2018
Just Ten Suggestions
After reading a fair bit over mass shootings and pondering over things....I have ten suggestions:
1. Dump all disciplinary issues that pop up in any school over to the cops and the local judge. Let the parents, and the trouble-making kids, get used to direct court action and the police. Let teachers do the only thing they should be doing...teach.
2. Got any kid who displays attitude problems in school or can't respect teachers or fellow-students? Bring them in for Saturday sand-bagging. Give them the job of filling five-hundred sandbags. You screw up a second time? One-thousand sandbags. You screw up a third time? Two-thousand sandbags.
3. Raise the gun purchase age to 21, along with the voting age, the age for buying alcohol, the age for getting a credit card, and the age to buy cigarettes. You want to join the military and are still under 21? Go get your parent's signature.
4. You make any threat to harm anyone....cops get called and they are mandated to arrest you and hold you for a minimum of forty-eight hours. Judges get called and you have to face some court activity before you get a chance to go back to school.
5. Give the school system an opportunity to let kids test out, and leave by the end of the 10th grade.
6. Unannounced drug tests on students and teachers....minimum of two tests per year. You fail as a student, you get two weeks of suspension. As a teacher, you get a month off without pay.
7. Cellphones forbidden in all schools.
8. Showing disciplinary issues? Let the judge retain your social media account and prevent your use of any social media for 90 days.
9. Fights at school? Call the cops, let them sort it out.
10. Fights on a bus? Call the cops and let them sort it out.
1. Dump all disciplinary issues that pop up in any school over to the cops and the local judge. Let the parents, and the trouble-making kids, get used to direct court action and the police. Let teachers do the only thing they should be doing...teach.
2. Got any kid who displays attitude problems in school or can't respect teachers or fellow-students? Bring them in for Saturday sand-bagging. Give them the job of filling five-hundred sandbags. You screw up a second time? One-thousand sandbags. You screw up a third time? Two-thousand sandbags.
3. Raise the gun purchase age to 21, along with the voting age, the age for buying alcohol, the age for getting a credit card, and the age to buy cigarettes. You want to join the military and are still under 21? Go get your parent's signature.
4. You make any threat to harm anyone....cops get called and they are mandated to arrest you and hold you for a minimum of forty-eight hours. Judges get called and you have to face some court activity before you get a chance to go back to school.
5. Give the school system an opportunity to let kids test out, and leave by the end of the 10th grade.
6. Unannounced drug tests on students and teachers....minimum of two tests per year. You fail as a student, you get two weeks of suspension. As a teacher, you get a month off without pay.
7. Cellphones forbidden in all schools.
8. Showing disciplinary issues? Let the judge retain your social media account and prevent your use of any social media for 90 days.
9. Fights at school? Call the cops, let them sort it out.
10. Fights on a bus? Call the cops and let them sort it out.
Saturday, 17 February 2018
The Russian Meddling Story
As the smoke clears over the 13 Russians indicted for campaign 'meddling'....you have to ask yourself....what exactly happened?
In 2014, some Russian authorities (no one says Putin) decided to send a couple of Russians into the US, on a vacation....to gather information (intelligence). They weren't interested in US missile silos, rockets, or even troop strength. No....their interest was public usage of social media, and how social media was used.
It's probably the weirdest collection mission ever attempted by the Russians. A couple of guys driving around....asking stupid questions over social media....how social media really works....and how to create fake news.
Over a period (probably two years), they devised this plan to 'meddle' in the US election. They would use social media. They would plant reports and stories.
No one....not Mueller, or Congress, or any media system....can cite what real affect this led to. Maybe it influenced 10,000 voters.....maybe 100,000 voters....maybe one-million voters. But you can't cite this as a fact.
In various ways, they planted stories or news that made Bernie Sanders look better than Hillary. They planted stories that made Trump look good. They might even planted stories that made McCain look brilliant, or Jeb Bush look like an idiot. They had public events where they sponsored groups.
Prior to the November election, they used one tactic of suggesting to blacks not to bother voting. To be honest, you can't cite the true effect of this. Maybe 10,000 blacks did take the advice and just stayed home. Maybe 100,000. Maybe even one-million. And if they did stay home....were they honest-Hillary-voters or honest-Trump-voters? Again, there are no facts.
Then after the election, they funneled money to leftist groups to show up for anti-Trump rallies. No, these were not the Hillary-supported, or Soros-supported, or DNC-supported anti-Trump rallies....these were the Russian-supported anti-Trump efforts. The fact that one anti-Trump rally would occur in X-city and be Russian-supported, but two states away was another anti-Trump rally but supported by Soros? Well....let's not bring that up.
Where this goes now? You bring the 13 Russians into a court and try to have some jury case worked up. The problem I see is that the Russians might show up with the KGB experts and documented evidence from November 2011, and January/February 2012 Russian elections.....where US social media (you know, Goggle, Facebook, and Twitter) showed up and influenced the anti-Putin group and harmed the Putin campaign. If you were on the jury, you would sit there and eventually ask the judge....if the American 'idiots' from the Obama Administration started this whole thing in 2011....shouldn't those Americans be dragged into a Russian court and be charged with election meddling as well? Were the Russians only returning the favor?
Oh. Yeah.
But here's the bigger question, with all the Russian work done....is it possible that they really only affected 10,000 votes across the entire US? This is the bigger mystery to the whole story.
In 2014, some Russian authorities (no one says Putin) decided to send a couple of Russians into the US, on a vacation....to gather information (intelligence). They weren't interested in US missile silos, rockets, or even troop strength. No....their interest was public usage of social media, and how social media was used.
It's probably the weirdest collection mission ever attempted by the Russians. A couple of guys driving around....asking stupid questions over social media....how social media really works....and how to create fake news.
Over a period (probably two years), they devised this plan to 'meddle' in the US election. They would use social media. They would plant reports and stories.
No one....not Mueller, or Congress, or any media system....can cite what real affect this led to. Maybe it influenced 10,000 voters.....maybe 100,000 voters....maybe one-million voters. But you can't cite this as a fact.
In various ways, they planted stories or news that made Bernie Sanders look better than Hillary. They planted stories that made Trump look good. They might even planted stories that made McCain look brilliant, or Jeb Bush look like an idiot. They had public events where they sponsored groups.
Prior to the November election, they used one tactic of suggesting to blacks not to bother voting. To be honest, you can't cite the true effect of this. Maybe 10,000 blacks did take the advice and just stayed home. Maybe 100,000. Maybe even one-million. And if they did stay home....were they honest-Hillary-voters or honest-Trump-voters? Again, there are no facts.
Then after the election, they funneled money to leftist groups to show up for anti-Trump rallies. No, these were not the Hillary-supported, or Soros-supported, or DNC-supported anti-Trump rallies....these were the Russian-supported anti-Trump efforts. The fact that one anti-Trump rally would occur in X-city and be Russian-supported, but two states away was another anti-Trump rally but supported by Soros? Well....let's not bring that up.
Where this goes now? You bring the 13 Russians into a court and try to have some jury case worked up. The problem I see is that the Russians might show up with the KGB experts and documented evidence from November 2011, and January/February 2012 Russian elections.....where US social media (you know, Goggle, Facebook, and Twitter) showed up and influenced the anti-Putin group and harmed the Putin campaign. If you were on the jury, you would sit there and eventually ask the judge....if the American 'idiots' from the Obama Administration started this whole thing in 2011....shouldn't those Americans be dragged into a Russian court and be charged with election meddling as well? Were the Russians only returning the favor?
Oh. Yeah.
But here's the bigger question, with all the Russian work done....is it possible that they really only affected 10,000 votes across the entire US? This is the bigger mystery to the whole story.
Friday, 16 February 2018
MIlitary Story
It came up in Pentagon news today that they are looking at this rule change that says that if you are non-deployable for over one year....they will release you (friendly way of saying you will be kicked out). How many are we talking about? The Pentagon suggests that it's near 300,000 total from the Marines, Army, Navy and Air Force (active duty and reserve/guard).
How this comes up? Someone must have centered in on statistical data that showed in some professions....it might one out of twenty folks who are on a year or two years of some ailment/health issue...and that it's a growing trend.
I sat there in the 1990s, and began to notice various trends which were falling into this category.
First, you had those sports-obsessive folks who were having serious sports injuries....the type where you are on limited or marginal physical profiles for a minimum of six months.
I worked with one guy who had an Achilles Tendon injury, which never healed right after the original episode, and this guy was on a profile for fifteen months. In the early 1990s, this wasn't a big deal....you'd cross the guy's name off the deployment list and you just went on. But these days, you might find two or three guys in a 120-man unit....with long-term injuries and this turns into a worry-fest for the commander to deploy people.
In one unit that I was associated with....they had a female in her early 30's with back issues. For six years, she was on a medical profile....no deployments possible. Course, they couldn't bring themselves to just medically discharge her. So she stayed on....reaching retirement at the 20-year point.
Second, you reached a level in the 1990s where people had mental or stress issues....and the doctors were favorable to start profiles on the individual. That would have been fine if this was a six-week episode and the guy needed alcohol rehab or he needed four months to get over the death of some family member. But I sat and watched the Air Force keep some nutcase around who was emotionally unable to handle any kind of stress. They wrote some profile which had nothing to do with physical health....just mental health. It took them near five years to admit the guy should not be in the military and to refuse to allow them to re-enlist. All the time in that five-year period? Deployable.
So what's going to happen here? You will start to see people argue with the military health profession and refuse profiles. If it's just a thirty-day profile for a pulled muscle or a 90-day profile for a knee operation...fine. But I suspect that most everyone is going to get hyper and tell the medical folks to just stop handing out the long-term profiles. At some point, the medical folks are going to argue about this, and it'll become some Congressional mess.
It's in a way....like the NFL. If you got two players on a team that can only play five games out of the season, and it's that way for several years....what value are the two guys? Zero.
How this comes up? Someone must have centered in on statistical data that showed in some professions....it might one out of twenty folks who are on a year or two years of some ailment/health issue...and that it's a growing trend.
I sat there in the 1990s, and began to notice various trends which were falling into this category.
First, you had those sports-obsessive folks who were having serious sports injuries....the type where you are on limited or marginal physical profiles for a minimum of six months.
I worked with one guy who had an Achilles Tendon injury, which never healed right after the original episode, and this guy was on a profile for fifteen months. In the early 1990s, this wasn't a big deal....you'd cross the guy's name off the deployment list and you just went on. But these days, you might find two or three guys in a 120-man unit....with long-term injuries and this turns into a worry-fest for the commander to deploy people.
In one unit that I was associated with....they had a female in her early 30's with back issues. For six years, she was on a medical profile....no deployments possible. Course, they couldn't bring themselves to just medically discharge her. So she stayed on....reaching retirement at the 20-year point.
Second, you reached a level in the 1990s where people had mental or stress issues....and the doctors were favorable to start profiles on the individual. That would have been fine if this was a six-week episode and the guy needed alcohol rehab or he needed four months to get over the death of some family member. But I sat and watched the Air Force keep some nutcase around who was emotionally unable to handle any kind of stress. They wrote some profile which had nothing to do with physical health....just mental health. It took them near five years to admit the guy should not be in the military and to refuse to allow them to re-enlist. All the time in that five-year period? Deployable.
So what's going to happen here? You will start to see people argue with the military health profession and refuse profiles. If it's just a thirty-day profile for a pulled muscle or a 90-day profile for a knee operation...fine. But I suspect that most everyone is going to get hyper and tell the medical folks to just stop handing out the long-term profiles. At some point, the medical folks are going to argue about this, and it'll become some Congressional mess.
It's in a way....like the NFL. If you got two players on a team that can only play five games out of the season, and it's that way for several years....what value are the two guys? Zero.
Thursday, 15 February 2018
Talking Over the Gun Episode in Florida
About a decade ago, while visiting the farm....my dad made an observation that concerned the late 1930s in Alabama.
In those days....a relative could write up a letter detailing how so-and-so relative was crazy....then two local folks would 'swear' (full oath in front of judge), and then some judge would order the county sheriff to bring in so-and-so for a face-to-face meeting. The judge would assess the threat-level, and then make the decision to confirm that guy or gal to a real mental facility.
As my dad discussed the matter....he noted with a grin that most young folks took this as a humorous moment and joked about having such-and-such relative sent off. For folks over forty, it wasn't joked about much.
I look at the Florida shooting episode, and this punk kid, with some descriptions given of him and his behavior....and in the 1930s era, he would have been packed up at age 13/14....and likely sent off to be evaluated for a couple of months. Maybe he would have learned to grasp reality and earn his way out.....or maybe he would have stayed permanently in such a place.
In the 1950s and 1960s....everyone decided that the mental institutions were not good places, and they more or less went away. If places exist today....it's more or less a place where you go for a couple of months until they figure out the right drugs to give you.
The plain truth is....there's probably over 3,000 folks just in the state of Alabama today....who ought to be in a mental institution. If you count up folks who have made violent threats to relatives....maybe another 20,000.
Across the entire US? You could be talking about locking up 300,000 people very easily. I just don't see the public accepting that.
In those days....a relative could write up a letter detailing how so-and-so relative was crazy....then two local folks would 'swear' (full oath in front of judge), and then some judge would order the county sheriff to bring in so-and-so for a face-to-face meeting. The judge would assess the threat-level, and then make the decision to confirm that guy or gal to a real mental facility.
As my dad discussed the matter....he noted with a grin that most young folks took this as a humorous moment and joked about having such-and-such relative sent off. For folks over forty, it wasn't joked about much.
I look at the Florida shooting episode, and this punk kid, with some descriptions given of him and his behavior....and in the 1930s era, he would have been packed up at age 13/14....and likely sent off to be evaluated for a couple of months. Maybe he would have learned to grasp reality and earn his way out.....or maybe he would have stayed permanently in such a place.
In the 1950s and 1960s....everyone decided that the mental institutions were not good places, and they more or less went away. If places exist today....it's more or less a place where you go for a couple of months until they figure out the right drugs to give you.
The plain truth is....there's probably over 3,000 folks just in the state of Alabama today....who ought to be in a mental institution. If you count up folks who have made violent threats to relatives....maybe another 20,000.
Across the entire US? You could be talking about locking up 300,000 people very easily. I just don't see the public accepting that.
Saturday, 10 February 2018
The 333 Story
There is this one small detail of this story revolving now over FBI agent Peter Strzok and his mistress FBI attorney Lisa Page. They are both page one news, and have been so for several months.
In the texts that have been recovered and reviewed....there's this one interesting number that pops up.
The two of them....on a daily basis....averaged 333 texts total.
It means from wake-up each day (remember, they are married, but to other folks)....to evening....about every five minutes, one is sending a text to the other. Throughout the work-day, at lunch, walking between buildings or offices, etc.
You have to figure in a eight-hour day that they owed the government for their monthly pay-check....they were involved in typing a text collection for at least 90 minutes each and everyday. If you subtract lunch, coffee breaks, and the text episodes....they were basically working for four hours a day. That's it.
Each was likely making $100k a year as a GS-employee....for four hours a day of work.
Around eight years ago, I got into a discussion with a co-worker over the effect of email and automation, and we came to the conclusion (or agreement) that automation really hasn't improved the quality of work or the amount of work over the past thirty years. If anything, we seem to do less work now.
If I supervised either individual? After looking over their past behavior....I'd do everything possible to limit their access to systems and actually herd them toward productive work.
The question to ask....of the hundred-thousand folks in DC....how many of them are in a 333 text per day mentality? That's what ought to worry a lot of people
In the texts that have been recovered and reviewed....there's this one interesting number that pops up.
The two of them....on a daily basis....averaged 333 texts total.
It means from wake-up each day (remember, they are married, but to other folks)....to evening....about every five minutes, one is sending a text to the other. Throughout the work-day, at lunch, walking between buildings or offices, etc.
You have to figure in a eight-hour day that they owed the government for their monthly pay-check....they were involved in typing a text collection for at least 90 minutes each and everyday. If you subtract lunch, coffee breaks, and the text episodes....they were basically working for four hours a day. That's it.
Each was likely making $100k a year as a GS-employee....for four hours a day of work.
Around eight years ago, I got into a discussion with a co-worker over the effect of email and automation, and we came to the conclusion (or agreement) that automation really hasn't improved the quality of work or the amount of work over the past thirty years. If anything, we seem to do less work now.
If I supervised either individual? After looking over their past behavior....I'd do everything possible to limit their access to systems and actually herd them toward productive work.
The question to ask....of the hundred-thousand folks in DC....how many of them are in a 333 text per day mentality? That's what ought to worry a lot of people
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