I had a political professor once (remember, I only attended night school where you got some of the unusual professors)....who got onto the topic of socialism and suggested there were three layers. There was absolute socialism (which never flourishes or exists in reality). Then you had hybrid-socialism (which was mostly capitalism, with enough taxation to gift out socialism things to people). And then you had fake hybrid-socialism where you taxed enough to gift out socialism things, but you corrupted the system enough that only special people got the gifts.
It was one of those evenings where you left class and spent an hour pondering over what was said.
I see a lot of salesmanship going on with socialism today, and folks trying hype up the 'gift-giving' business to the extent that everyone could be happy. It's like some newly blended ice cream that folks never ask about the ingredients, or the nutritional value.
Throughout the 1800s....on several occasions in America....plain and absolute socialism was attempted. In one case, tons of money was poured into the foundation to jump-start the system, and the belief was that once things got going....the money business could be halted and the system would sustain itself. Well....in each and every case (even the episode with tons of money).....each came to a clear end. Some took well over a decade, but none could sustain themselves.
The general failure? Generally, it was a human condition that we'd call 'expectations'. When people walk into a deal like this.....they have this idea in their head. It's like when you walk into a Hooters-joint. You expect booby-gals, fatty food, great taste to the food, and a particular cost level. If the food failed, or the beer was awful, or the bill added up to three times what you expected.....then Hooters would not work.
So the general method to making hybrid-socialism work? You have to allow capitalism to function for the most part, with a few controls to suggest that you are in charge or maintaining the 'system'. You tax virtually everything, and as the money flows back into the pot.....you have some 'Larry-guy' standing there with a list of things that make people happy. Naturally, you can't have free-beer, free-muffins, or free-vacations. But you can have money poured into poverty-projects, bridges, tram-lines that have zero return value, and fund spacious airports in the middle of nowhere.
The fake-hybrid-socialism system? The chief place today where you see it is Venezuela. The problem in this case is that you micromanaged the capitalistic system so much....that you can't even rely upon the local grocery to have toilet paper, ketchup, or watermelons. So when people come to you, and kinda expect your fake system to deploy to full capability, your response is that it's on full-turbo power, and it won't get much better.
As for the college kids who hyped-up and enthusiastic about socialism? They seem to be stuck on some fantasy-world that professor so-and-so describes but no one has actually been there or seen that. It's like that Star Trek series where people talk about Kilo-9 or the dark-planet (a fictional place), but they talking like it's potentially there.
In their mind, socialism is kind of an image of Disneyland, and it's all wonderful, free, and abundant in nature.
Friday, 24 August 2018
The 'Poop' Job
There's a piece off 'Hotair' that I read today....discussing San Francisco and the 'crap' on the streets. Someone did the research and found that the city funds a fairly large group of street cleaners with a special mission to do the 'poop' clean-up business of the homeless crowd.
The pay-level? That's what interested me.
They actually pay near $72,000 a year, for each person on the patrol. Then you get medical benefits, retirement, etc. All total? The city says near $185,000 per person.
It's an amazing amount of money. Course, you have to wear the bio-hazard gear.....tote around various hoses all day (it's probably sweaty work), and you have the potential to get into some stinky business. But here's the thing....you can probably retire by age fifty and collect at least $40,000 a year. Off that, in Tennessee.....you could live a pretty decent retirement.....having cleaned up 'crap' your entire life.
The pay-level? That's what interested me.
They actually pay near $72,000 a year, for each person on the patrol. Then you get medical benefits, retirement, etc. All total? The city says near $185,000 per person.
It's an amazing amount of money. Course, you have to wear the bio-hazard gear.....tote around various hoses all day (it's probably sweaty work), and you have the potential to get into some stinky business. But here's the thing....you can probably retire by age fifty and collect at least $40,000 a year. Off that, in Tennessee.....you could live a pretty decent retirement.....having cleaned up 'crap' your entire life.
Thursday, 23 August 2018
KKK, Then and Now
I'm often amused how journalists get wrapped up on the KKK-topic and they want you to put this topic in your top hundred things to worry about. So this is one of those historical essays I write....to establish some true basis of understanding.
First, the original KKK-concept occurred in the Pulaski, Tenn area, and probably was more tied to a local group of guys (six total), who wanted to make up a Greek 'club' like organization after the Civil War. In some ways, it was like lodge-group....with secrecy tied to it, and some likey hardcore drinking. The first group could be regarded as a weird collection of folks who had a dislike of the Democratic-style politics going on, and influences perceived in 'change'. Their chief problem in that original couple of years, was no central authority and no ability to kick out the rift-raft. Most tend to agree...evolution 1.0 of the KKK ended by 1870.
For the next forty years....KKK-like groups come and go, but none use the name. In some ways, they resemble more the Brown Shirts of Germany or the Black Shirts of Italy, in that period.
So you come to 1915, and version 2 of the KKK, which centered itself around Stone Mountain, Georgia. This group went back to the Greek-like club thrills, the secrecy, and this time....had a central authority.
This second group last for almost thirty years and probably reached near 6-million members toward the end. But their enthusiasm and problems, led onto KKK evolution number three.
For the third era, I tend to argue that this core group went through a massive recruitment spiral, and probably peaked out by the early 1970s. There might have been 10k to 20k members in that era.
So you come to today. You can review various estimations and people put the real number of 'paying members' (with membership) at 3,000 to 8,000 nationally. Proof? There simply isn't a reliable way to suggest the numbers.
Some might still be attracted to the anti-black theme or anti-Jew message. Some might simply see it as some mysterious Greek-like club (especially those who didn't do the college club membership deal).
If you went and tried to get full-up members to show up for some march? I doubt if you'd get more than a quarter of folks to go that far. They like the secrecy, but beyond that.....they don't want the extra thrills.
I think if you went into various communities today, and offered up a modern-day version of the 'Sons of Malta' (another secrecy group but not really into the KKK-type themes), then you'd have a fair number of folks interested and pursuing something like that. People just have a fascination with secret stuff (like the Freemasons).
Fake KKK thugs around? Last week, I was reading a piece of news and the news item seemed to have some suggestion of a fake KKK group. I would take a guess that maybe several fraudulent and fake groups exist....purely for political gathering purposes.
A threat to the nation? The 1915 group might have been a threat. But the original crew and the current existing crew are just not much of a threat.
First, the original KKK-concept occurred in the Pulaski, Tenn area, and probably was more tied to a local group of guys (six total), who wanted to make up a Greek 'club' like organization after the Civil War. In some ways, it was like lodge-group....with secrecy tied to it, and some likey hardcore drinking. The first group could be regarded as a weird collection of folks who had a dislike of the Democratic-style politics going on, and influences perceived in 'change'. Their chief problem in that original couple of years, was no central authority and no ability to kick out the rift-raft. Most tend to agree...evolution 1.0 of the KKK ended by 1870.
For the next forty years....KKK-like groups come and go, but none use the name. In some ways, they resemble more the Brown Shirts of Germany or the Black Shirts of Italy, in that period.
So you come to 1915, and version 2 of the KKK, which centered itself around Stone Mountain, Georgia. This group went back to the Greek-like club thrills, the secrecy, and this time....had a central authority.
This second group last for almost thirty years and probably reached near 6-million members toward the end. But their enthusiasm and problems, led onto KKK evolution number three.
For the third era, I tend to argue that this core group went through a massive recruitment spiral, and probably peaked out by the early 1970s. There might have been 10k to 20k members in that era.
So you come to today. You can review various estimations and people put the real number of 'paying members' (with membership) at 3,000 to 8,000 nationally. Proof? There simply isn't a reliable way to suggest the numbers.
Some might still be attracted to the anti-black theme or anti-Jew message. Some might simply see it as some mysterious Greek-like club (especially those who didn't do the college club membership deal).
If you went and tried to get full-up members to show up for some march? I doubt if you'd get more than a quarter of folks to go that far. They like the secrecy, but beyond that.....they don't want the extra thrills.
I think if you went into various communities today, and offered up a modern-day version of the 'Sons of Malta' (another secrecy group but not really into the KKK-type themes), then you'd have a fair number of folks interested and pursuing something like that. People just have a fascination with secret stuff (like the Freemasons).
Fake KKK thugs around? Last week, I was reading a piece of news and the news item seemed to have some suggestion of a fake KKK group. I would take a guess that maybe several fraudulent and fake groups exist....purely for political gathering purposes.
A threat to the nation? The 1915 group might have been a threat. But the original crew and the current existing crew are just not much of a threat.
Watergate?
I sat there today and watched through about 60 minutes of news coverage over the past three days.....where the term 'Watergate was mentioned at least twenty times. Watergate-this, and Watergate-that.
I admit I am nearing 60 years old and have some memory of the period, the activity, the characters, and downfall of Nixon.
But here's the thing. I suspect that two-thirds of the nation has virtually NO MEMORY of Watergate, and this hype? It'd doing absolutely nothing.
Some folks are probably sitting there and thinking Watergate was some dam structure which collapsed in 1913 in Arkansas, or it was a Detroit car model that was made for one brief year, or that it was a blonde gal from Tulsa who went by the name 'Henny' Watergate and she did some wild topless dancing in the 1970s.
The use of these 1970s journalists? Being dragged out and propped up for some twelve-minute lecture about something that no one really remembers? Well....that's the problem. They might as well be Detroit Lion coaches, Seattle city council members, or famous Mexican comedians.
By the middle of next week...some intellectual guy will meet up with the CNN, NPR, and CBS crowd.....discussing the discovery that the term 'Watergate' really is a mystery to two-thirds of the nation and maybe there needs to be another angle to destroying Trump (maybe connecting him to a UFO theorist group or a Swedish opera singer with Russian family connections).
Here's the funny thing.....more people can name women 'loved' on by Bill Clinton.....than Republican guys who 'fell' during the Watergate era. That ought to worry the Democrats greatly.
I admit I am nearing 60 years old and have some memory of the period, the activity, the characters, and downfall of Nixon.
But here's the thing. I suspect that two-thirds of the nation has virtually NO MEMORY of Watergate, and this hype? It'd doing absolutely nothing.
Some folks are probably sitting there and thinking Watergate was some dam structure which collapsed in 1913 in Arkansas, or it was a Detroit car model that was made for one brief year, or that it was a blonde gal from Tulsa who went by the name 'Henny' Watergate and she did some wild topless dancing in the 1970s.
The use of these 1970s journalists? Being dragged out and propped up for some twelve-minute lecture about something that no one really remembers? Well....that's the problem. They might as well be Detroit Lion coaches, Seattle city council members, or famous Mexican comedians.
By the middle of next week...some intellectual guy will meet up with the CNN, NPR, and CBS crowd.....discussing the discovery that the term 'Watergate' really is a mystery to two-thirds of the nation and maybe there needs to be another angle to destroying Trump (maybe connecting him to a UFO theorist group or a Swedish opera singer with Russian family connections).
Here's the funny thing.....more people can name women 'loved' on by Bill Clinton.....than Republican guys who 'fell' during the Watergate era. That ought to worry the Democrats greatly.
NFL
I should note, I just don't care much for the NFL, and have been that way for a couple of years. The kneeling business simply wrapped up the last bit of enthusiasm I had.
I noticed today that teams are a bit worried over fan numbers and filling seats as the season starts up, and they've gone to a new tactic.....heavily discounting beer and food prices. Course, this cuts into profits but the desperation is starting to show.
If the attendance or viewing numbers don't return to a norm? Most journalists were trying to tell a story in the late fall of 2017 that this was a temp thing, and it would return to normal. Why they choose that wording? Unknown.
The brand? It's in a freefall type situation and no one that you can readily identify for blame. If you were a owner of a billion-dollar club, and your profits were 20-percent off the norm....you'd be upset. You'd like to fire someone. But in this case.....you can't.
The camera guys? They likely have orders to avoid any camera display of empty seats. So every image will be selected carefully and the majority of camera footage will be of the field itself. The fact that 10,000 seats might be empty? It won't be discussed.
Bars that used to make big money off Monday night football? They would likely be looking for an alternate angle now.
At the bottom of this whole thing are college kids looking at the pay-dynamics and realizing that somewhere in the next year or two....there's going to be some shift in pay, and it won't be positive.
I noticed today that teams are a bit worried over fan numbers and filling seats as the season starts up, and they've gone to a new tactic.....heavily discounting beer and food prices. Course, this cuts into profits but the desperation is starting to show.
If the attendance or viewing numbers don't return to a norm? Most journalists were trying to tell a story in the late fall of 2017 that this was a temp thing, and it would return to normal. Why they choose that wording? Unknown.
The brand? It's in a freefall type situation and no one that you can readily identify for blame. If you were a owner of a billion-dollar club, and your profits were 20-percent off the norm....you'd be upset. You'd like to fire someone. But in this case.....you can't.
The camera guys? They likely have orders to avoid any camera display of empty seats. So every image will be selected carefully and the majority of camera footage will be of the field itself. The fact that 10,000 seats might be empty? It won't be discussed.
Bars that used to make big money off Monday night football? They would likely be looking for an alternate angle now.
At the bottom of this whole thing are college kids looking at the pay-dynamics and realizing that somewhere in the next year or two....there's going to be some shift in pay, and it won't be positive.
Tuesday, 21 August 2018
David Hogg and the 22nd District
There's been a piece or two over the past two days about David Hogg (the Parkland High School kid who gets hyped up over gun-control), and he's now said that when he turns 25 years old, he'll run for Representative (one has to assume he means the 22nd district).
I sat and pondered this logic.
First, the district was designed for two decades to be a fairly safe GOP district. That came to an end around before 2012's election (Allen West was pushed out of the district). At that point, the Democrats held a fair lead in normal elections. You can figure from the past three elections, there's a safe barrier of 10 to 15 points here for a Democrat to win. So this ought to be kinda easy for Hogg to win....right?
Second.....well, 2020 is a Census year, and 2026 (the year after he'd turn 25 years old) would be the first election for Hogg to run. You can pretty much bank on the fact that Florida (currently at 27 Representatives) is going to have a larger population and likely gain 2 more seats, which means....YES, a redistrict drawing. They will have in 2022....two additional districts. The odds of Parkland being modified into a plus-five point district for the GOP? I would kinda suspect that it might go that direction.
Third, here's this one odd factor about the 22nd District....the Latinos control 22-percent of the population. Blacks? 16-percent.
It might be time for the GOP to go out and recruit some young Latino upstart (say age 25 to 35), and start talking over funding the guy and symbolizing the 22nd District as a 50-50 district for Latino votes for the GOP.
Fourth, Hogg running on a purely anti-gun message? It won't work. One theme political campaigns typically fail.
I don't really want to discourage from running, but five years into the future, and figuring this redistricting likely to happen.....the odds are against him and his political dreams right now.
I sat and pondered this logic.
First, the district was designed for two decades to be a fairly safe GOP district. That came to an end around before 2012's election (Allen West was pushed out of the district). At that point, the Democrats held a fair lead in normal elections. You can figure from the past three elections, there's a safe barrier of 10 to 15 points here for a Democrat to win. So this ought to be kinda easy for Hogg to win....right?
Second.....well, 2020 is a Census year, and 2026 (the year after he'd turn 25 years old) would be the first election for Hogg to run. You can pretty much bank on the fact that Florida (currently at 27 Representatives) is going to have a larger population and likely gain 2 more seats, which means....YES, a redistrict drawing. They will have in 2022....two additional districts. The odds of Parkland being modified into a plus-five point district for the GOP? I would kinda suspect that it might go that direction.
Third, here's this one odd factor about the 22nd District....the Latinos control 22-percent of the population. Blacks? 16-percent.
It might be time for the GOP to go out and recruit some young Latino upstart (say age 25 to 35), and start talking over funding the guy and symbolizing the 22nd District as a 50-50 district for Latino votes for the GOP.
Fourth, Hogg running on a purely anti-gun message? It won't work. One theme political campaigns typically fail.
I don't really want to discourage from running, but five years into the future, and figuring this redistricting likely to happen.....the odds are against him and his political dreams right now.
Sunday, 19 August 2018
My Second Special Prosecutor Theory
About a month ago, I read through a number of pieces which discussed the idea of a 2nd special prosecutor (a second Mueller-type individual). I've sat and reviewed the discussions and formed this observation:
1. I think President Trump will by-pass 'old-man' Sessions in the spring of 2019, and appoint the second special prosecutor. Why then? Basically, that guy appointed will be 'fishing' during the campaign build-up to the 2020 election, and he'll be able to bring in twenty various characters.
2. Pay-back? By early 2019, I think as virtually all of the 'FBI-cards', the 'dossier-cards', and the 'FISA-abuse-cards' are laid out, you won't help but notice a conspiracy, and as much as the news media might yell about pay-back, it won't work.
3. Brennan in trouble? Based on the lie-to-Congress problem....he probably needs to go spend some money on real attornies and prepare for troubles.
4. McCain? If he's still around and kicking....he will likely face this special prosecutor and have to explain what he paid, and how he got into the dossier business. I think he'll be highly embarrassed and probably try to claim some Senate immunity from this special prosecutor.
5. Pain for the DNC? Public sentiment won't be very positive and it'll make the whole campaign for the Democratic primary period in 2020.....suffer.
6. Sessions? He'll have no authority over the 2nd special prosecutor and will turn into a more or less worthless attorney general (even more so than he is today). January of 2021 will arrive and he'll be the first to be let go. By 2025, no one will remember the guy, and it'll be mostly laughed over for this period that he served as AG.
7. Damage for Hillary Clinton? At some point, the prosecutor will turn and face the donations to the Clinton Foundation. I don't think the Foundation leadership will be able to survive this without one or two of them going off to some prison episode.
All of this will lead to a Senate confrontation in 2020 and 2021. With the public not buying into the news media message, I think the GOP control of the senate will continue on through 2020 and 2022's election period. You might actually see 60 to 65 GOP senators there in the 2nd Trump administration.
Damage-wise? Hundreds of books will be written over this period and the lack of appropriate behavior from dozens of Obama-period characters.
1. I think President Trump will by-pass 'old-man' Sessions in the spring of 2019, and appoint the second special prosecutor. Why then? Basically, that guy appointed will be 'fishing' during the campaign build-up to the 2020 election, and he'll be able to bring in twenty various characters.
2. Pay-back? By early 2019, I think as virtually all of the 'FBI-cards', the 'dossier-cards', and the 'FISA-abuse-cards' are laid out, you won't help but notice a conspiracy, and as much as the news media might yell about pay-back, it won't work.
3. Brennan in trouble? Based on the lie-to-Congress problem....he probably needs to go spend some money on real attornies and prepare for troubles.
4. McCain? If he's still around and kicking....he will likely face this special prosecutor and have to explain what he paid, and how he got into the dossier business. I think he'll be highly embarrassed and probably try to claim some Senate immunity from this special prosecutor.
5. Pain for the DNC? Public sentiment won't be very positive and it'll make the whole campaign for the Democratic primary period in 2020.....suffer.
6. Sessions? He'll have no authority over the 2nd special prosecutor and will turn into a more or less worthless attorney general (even more so than he is today). January of 2021 will arrive and he'll be the first to be let go. By 2025, no one will remember the guy, and it'll be mostly laughed over for this period that he served as AG.
7. Damage for Hillary Clinton? At some point, the prosecutor will turn and face the donations to the Clinton Foundation. I don't think the Foundation leadership will be able to survive this without one or two of them going off to some prison episode.
All of this will lead to a Senate confrontation in 2020 and 2021. With the public not buying into the news media message, I think the GOP control of the senate will continue on through 2020 and 2022's election period. You might actually see 60 to 65 GOP senators there in the 2nd Trump administration.
Damage-wise? Hundreds of books will be written over this period and the lack of appropriate behavior from dozens of Obama-period characters.
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