If you pull up this scenario suggested by the Democratic group in this hearing.....there is a scenario which would follow if the FBI took this to the next level and investigated this completely. I'll out how this script would work:
1. You'd detail around twenty agents to go and spend approximately 60 to 90 days...gathering data. You'd bring them into a room, and lay out approximately forty primary witnesses, and then suggest a secondary level of another 200-odd witnesses.
2. At some point, another two-hundred-plus people would show up and demand that they get a chance to provide testimony....a statement.
3. Near the end, an administrative team would show up and help to funnel everything into a 1,500 page summary of facts and statements. A closing statement? No...just a summary. The FBI does not have the capability or the authority to conclude 'TRUTH'.
4. Approximately 2,000 copies of the two-document summary would then be published and given over to the Senate and it's support staff. They would be given an entire month read summary.
5. You would find that NOT ONE single member of the Senate would have read the entire 1,500 pages. It's very likely that NOT ONE single member of the support staff would have read the entire summary. The party would have paid some special team to go and read it for them.....to do a summary of the summary. Some Senate members might even whine that the 40-page summary of the summary....was TOO much, and demand a summary of the summary of the summary.....to get it down to three pages.
6. They would then convene and announce that FBI summary really didn't settle anything because they need someone to assure them Kavanaugh is 'clean' or 'dirty'.
Time wasted? By this point, approximately six months.
The fact that Professor Ford can't present a single witness at this party to substantiate part of this whole story? In a nutshell, that is the whole basis of the story, or the lack of a story. The story about a fear of flying? Well.....yeah, that was a pretty good story but it now seems mostly false.
Friday, 28 September 2018
Thursday, 27 September 2018
How Arnold Became Governor
Yesterday, we had a slight discussion in a German class that I'm taking over Arnold Schwarzenegger, and a brief moment on his seven years as governor. Few folks ever sit down and ask.....how did Arnold reach this post, and you have to go back and spend an hour reading over some rich California political history.
So this starts with Pete Wilson winning the governor's chair and taking office in 1991. Most folks will say that the Wilson era went along a scripted sequence, with few if any scandals. Interestingly enough, on the first go-around, Pete ran against a young Feinstein, winning with a four-point difference (you can look up the county by county map, to note that most of her votes came from the L A or San Francisco region along the coast). Four years later (1995), Wilson won with 15-points. Then the Pete Wilson era closes out.
In 1999, the Gray Davis era begins (20-point win over the GOP front-guy). In some districts around the state, Davis even takes 80-percent of the vote. Folks are hyped up. Davis burns through the first four year period with various promises made, and strong measures to suggest results met up with the promises. Along the way, he spent eight billion in unfunded educational measures...getting results on paper, but moving the state into a difficult financial situation. The artificially created electrical crisis? Well, this got a lot of mileage and wasn't really Davis's fault....but he never seemed to get a hand onto the mess and people kinda wondered if special interests were at play.
So you come to this interesting 2002 governor's election. The discontent plays big among the voters for the entire year prior to the election. Gray Davis wins the election by roughly 5-points. But there is this odd factor at play....only 36-percent of the registered voters showed up to vote in this election. Yes, if Bill Simon (the GOP guy) had gotten 400,000 people to show up....he would have won the election. Adding to this story, Davis spent an all-time record of money on campaign ads.....which ran mostly along a very negative episode.
The discontent? It rumbles over this result and roughly sixty-percent of the public is fed up. So they go and make an effort for a recall-election. Oddly enough, there is a recall rule which says to be a valid recall.....you have to get 12-percent of the number of voters from the previous election.....to sign the petition. Note, NOT the registered voter count.....but the folks who voted in the past election.
So this creates this curious scenario. With such a low voter turnout (only 36-percent of the registered voters showing up).....they easily reached 900,000 folks who signed the petition, and the Gray Davis era is finished.
Eleven months into the 4-year term, Gray Davis is finished. Another election is held and Arnold is the GOP guy.....winning by 17-points (major wins in the L A region). Arnold goes on in 2006, to win with a 16-point edge.
If the electrical crisis hadn't occurred? That's the thing about this whole story....for the public, that was the last straw. One odd factor in this whole story.....this is occuring all before social media or Facebook came along. The internet was not a factor in getting Gray Davis out. This more or less comes via talk-radio and newspapers.
So this starts with Pete Wilson winning the governor's chair and taking office in 1991. Most folks will say that the Wilson era went along a scripted sequence, with few if any scandals. Interestingly enough, on the first go-around, Pete ran against a young Feinstein, winning with a four-point difference (you can look up the county by county map, to note that most of her votes came from the L A or San Francisco region along the coast). Four years later (1995), Wilson won with 15-points. Then the Pete Wilson era closes out.
In 1999, the Gray Davis era begins (20-point win over the GOP front-guy). In some districts around the state, Davis even takes 80-percent of the vote. Folks are hyped up. Davis burns through the first four year period with various promises made, and strong measures to suggest results met up with the promises. Along the way, he spent eight billion in unfunded educational measures...getting results on paper, but moving the state into a difficult financial situation. The artificially created electrical crisis? Well, this got a lot of mileage and wasn't really Davis's fault....but he never seemed to get a hand onto the mess and people kinda wondered if special interests were at play.
So you come to this interesting 2002 governor's election. The discontent plays big among the voters for the entire year prior to the election. Gray Davis wins the election by roughly 5-points. But there is this odd factor at play....only 36-percent of the registered voters showed up to vote in this election. Yes, if Bill Simon (the GOP guy) had gotten 400,000 people to show up....he would have won the election. Adding to this story, Davis spent an all-time record of money on campaign ads.....which ran mostly along a very negative episode.
The discontent? It rumbles over this result and roughly sixty-percent of the public is fed up. So they go and make an effort for a recall-election. Oddly enough, there is a recall rule which says to be a valid recall.....you have to get 12-percent of the number of voters from the previous election.....to sign the petition. Note, NOT the registered voter count.....but the folks who voted in the past election.
So this creates this curious scenario. With such a low voter turnout (only 36-percent of the registered voters showing up).....they easily reached 900,000 folks who signed the petition, and the Gray Davis era is finished.
Eleven months into the 4-year term, Gray Davis is finished. Another election is held and Arnold is the GOP guy.....winning by 17-points (major wins in the L A region). Arnold goes on in 2006, to win with a 16-point edge.
If the electrical crisis hadn't occurred? That's the thing about this whole story....for the public, that was the last straw. One odd factor in this whole story.....this is occuring all before social media or Facebook came along. The internet was not a factor in getting Gray Davis out. This more or less comes via talk-radio and newspapers.
Wednesday, 26 September 2018
Talking Victimization
“Now, I have said this over and over again a different way. Everybody wants their life to have meaning. Everybody wants to matter. And a lot of people feel overwhelmed, powerless, and like they don’t matter – and one of the faster ways to make yourself feel like you matter is to become a victim, member of an organized victim group. ”
-- Rush Limbaugh, 2018
I don't usually quote Limbaugh, and to be honest....at best these days, I can handle maybe a 20-minute routine of his. But he sat and put this one thought together, which leads me back to one of the more critical books that I ever picked up and read.
'True Believer' was written by Eric Hoffer in 1951....comprising 176 pages. You can complete the book in one single weekend. It's a brilliant book, yet written at the level that even most teens can grasp the subject.
Hoffer went to describe how mass movements build up....take root....trigger people to feel a need to save 'someone', or 'something', and the basis of some many movements....is simply because people are drawn to SAVE or to HAVE PURPOSE in their lives.
If you feel drawn to some victim....your attachment is mostly geared to SAVE that victim, or to HAVE A PURPOSE in their life.
Over the past decade, you continually see environmental 'save' somethings, or racial 'save' somethings, or immigration 'save' somethings. People are drawn to these, to feel some great feeling of helping or saving something. After a while, that feeling peaks out. You eventually figure out that you aren't saving much of anything.
Victimization almost a daily event? Well....yeah, that's part of saving something as well. All fake? Well...that's the thing about this....you aren't asking yourself about the information or how reliable the event is in terms of facts. So, you could have a fake victim, and you'd be part of a fake 'save-the-victim' event. Kind of comical, if you think about it.
How These Four Sworn Statements of Professor Fords....Line Up
It's a remarkable four line story.
Four individuals who know Professor Ford (of Kavanaugh fame), have signed documents to say that she did say to them that it was a drunk Kavanaugh 'kid' involved in this mess. However, they are basically saying she told the story.....in the last three or four years. One is her doctor....one, her husband, and the other two are friends.
The value here? Zero.
I don't what the intention is, or how you reach some level of thinking that telling someone about something, then having them swear they heard you talk about it.....gets you much of anything. Most judges would throw this out in three minutes.
Four individuals who know Professor Ford (of Kavanaugh fame), have signed documents to say that she did say to them that it was a drunk Kavanaugh 'kid' involved in this mess. However, they are basically saying she told the story.....in the last three or four years. One is her doctor....one, her husband, and the other two are friends.
The value here? Zero.
I don't what the intention is, or how you reach some level of thinking that telling someone about something, then having them swear they heard you talk about it.....gets you much of anything. Most judges would throw this out in three minutes.
Tuesday, 25 September 2018
The Left-Wingers to Canada Scenario
For at least twenty years....a number of folks have hyped up some chatter that they might be moving to Canada (originally because of Bush, and then later because of Trump). I've sat and pondered over this scenario.
First, I know it's a shock but Canada tends to go with one-third of the public shifting their votes about every five to ten years....going to right-wing conservative and then five years later.....left-wing liberal. So you could make this big move up there and wake up five years later.....realizing that you are among some extreme conservatives. Yes, it's bad enough that you'd have to leave Canada. Return to the US? Migrant to Belize? Maybe resettle in Honduras?
Second, if you notice....no one ever seems to move (even if they've made the threat forty times on national TV). I think most have driven across the border, checked taxation rates, and then laughed over the whole idea of moving there.
Third, the weather. Yes....for about 90-percent of Canada, the weather is a big deal. Maybe if you lived in Vancouver, it'd be OK, but for the rest of the nation...it's crap to have a six-month long winter.
Fourth and final....if you went did this really stupid thing....leaving most of your friends....who would socialize with or get hyped up with....in Canada? Yes, it's a very lonely place.
So, have at it, but I just don't think this scenario will ever play out.
First, I know it's a shock but Canada tends to go with one-third of the public shifting their votes about every five to ten years....going to right-wing conservative and then five years later.....left-wing liberal. So you could make this big move up there and wake up five years later.....realizing that you are among some extreme conservatives. Yes, it's bad enough that you'd have to leave Canada. Return to the US? Migrant to Belize? Maybe resettle in Honduras?
Second, if you notice....no one ever seems to move (even if they've made the threat forty times on national TV). I think most have driven across the border, checked taxation rates, and then laughed over the whole idea of moving there.
Third, the weather. Yes....for about 90-percent of Canada, the weather is a big deal. Maybe if you lived in Vancouver, it'd be OK, but for the rest of the nation...it's crap to have a six-month long winter.
Fourth and final....if you went did this really stupid thing....leaving most of your friends....who would socialize with or get hyped up with....in Canada? Yes, it's a very lonely place.
So, have at it, but I just don't think this scenario will ever play out.
This Kelly-Rosenstein Meeting
Everyone gushes over the Rosenstein topic from yesterday, but no one really sits and talks about this single meeting of Chief of Staff Kelly and Rosenstein himself.
You can imagine them sitting down, and Kelly leading off: "You know Rod....all this chatter about you and this 'wire'....well, it's a problem."
Rosenstein would counter: "Well, yeah....but it's just gossip by those evil New York Times writers."
Kelly: "We thought about it, and we've decided that there needs to be a complete investigation done...like what we did to those FBI guys who were suspended or working in some basement office."
Rosenstein: "Gee, I don't think that's helpful because I'm managing Mueller, and doing all this work that Sessions can't or won't do."
Then Kelly would have just started laughing.
I don't think this is a firing....once you suggest that you might be willing to wear a 'wire' inside of the White House, your clearance is at stake. I think that's the whole point of Kelly having this chat. And if you did this review and found the 'wire' comment has occurred, then Rosenstein can't retain his clearance.
How did Trump's team reach this level of play? I think they sat down and drew up a list of likely NY Times reporters who were connected to Rosenstein....then found found one or two who were outside of that circle. They then agreed to funnel news to that new group, in exchange for them to plant this comment of Rosenstein and the 'wire'. The insider crew? They didn't grasp what was going on, and the outsider crew suddenly had some track to get their stories planted. Presently, I'm guessing the insider and outsider groups are in conflict. The damage has been done.
Rosenstein? Without a clearance, he can't function. And just getting to this decision....you'd have to suspend the guy for 90 days. The number three guy would step in (a GOP guy) and suddenly Session's little game falls apart.
Mueller? I will go out and predict that a meeting occurs between the new boss and Mueller within 10 days after Rosenstein retires (note, I'm not saying he's fired). The new boss will clearly define the Mueller process, and give him roughly two to four weeks to wrap up the Russian collusion business. Everything else? Finished and put into a secure folder. Anyone caught exiting the situation with collected data? Their clearances will be revoked and they could be dragged into court themselves.
Somewhere around the end of October, the Mueller-adventure ends. Sessions? I think he's played out the game as far as he can and will quietly retire in the spring of 2019.
It's interesting how this played out....Trump needed the NY Times to shake the tree, and once done....Rosenstein fell out of the tree. There's no need for a firing....you just revoke the guy's clearance for the threat of wearing a 'wire'. I can even imagine Rosenstein entering the work-area of Kelly yesterday, and some security guy going through his clothing to ensure no wire was being worn....just to send a signal on he would be treated from this point on. It's an insult to get padded down prior to each meeting, but Rosenstein basically begged for the insult.
An odd ending? Yes. If Rosenstein had never made that wire threat....there's no threat to his clearance. Threats by the Democrats to investigate this? Maybe. But there might be another special prosecutor hired to check the FBI conduct, and maybe former Obama staff members on FISA problems. You can imagine that meeting between Senator Schumer and Chief of Staff Kelly.
You can imagine them sitting down, and Kelly leading off: "You know Rod....all this chatter about you and this 'wire'....well, it's a problem."
Rosenstein would counter: "Well, yeah....but it's just gossip by those evil New York Times writers."
Kelly: "We thought about it, and we've decided that there needs to be a complete investigation done...like what we did to those FBI guys who were suspended or working in some basement office."
Rosenstein: "Gee, I don't think that's helpful because I'm managing Mueller, and doing all this work that Sessions can't or won't do."
Then Kelly would have just started laughing.
I don't think this is a firing....once you suggest that you might be willing to wear a 'wire' inside of the White House, your clearance is at stake. I think that's the whole point of Kelly having this chat. And if you did this review and found the 'wire' comment has occurred, then Rosenstein can't retain his clearance.
How did Trump's team reach this level of play? I think they sat down and drew up a list of likely NY Times reporters who were connected to Rosenstein....then found found one or two who were outside of that circle. They then agreed to funnel news to that new group, in exchange for them to plant this comment of Rosenstein and the 'wire'. The insider crew? They didn't grasp what was going on, and the outsider crew suddenly had some track to get their stories planted. Presently, I'm guessing the insider and outsider groups are in conflict. The damage has been done.
Rosenstein? Without a clearance, he can't function. And just getting to this decision....you'd have to suspend the guy for 90 days. The number three guy would step in (a GOP guy) and suddenly Session's little game falls apart.
Mueller? I will go out and predict that a meeting occurs between the new boss and Mueller within 10 days after Rosenstein retires (note, I'm not saying he's fired). The new boss will clearly define the Mueller process, and give him roughly two to four weeks to wrap up the Russian collusion business. Everything else? Finished and put into a secure folder. Anyone caught exiting the situation with collected data? Their clearances will be revoked and they could be dragged into court themselves.
Somewhere around the end of October, the Mueller-adventure ends. Sessions? I think he's played out the game as far as he can and will quietly retire in the spring of 2019.
It's interesting how this played out....Trump needed the NY Times to shake the tree, and once done....Rosenstein fell out of the tree. There's no need for a firing....you just revoke the guy's clearance for the threat of wearing a 'wire'. I can even imagine Rosenstein entering the work-area of Kelly yesterday, and some security guy going through his clothing to ensure no wire was being worn....just to send a signal on he would be treated from this point on. It's an insult to get padded down prior to each meeting, but Rosenstein basically begged for the insult.
An odd ending? Yes. If Rosenstein had never made that wire threat....there's no threat to his clearance. Threats by the Democrats to investigate this? Maybe. But there might be another special prosecutor hired to check the FBI conduct, and maybe former Obama staff members on FISA problems. You can imagine that meeting between Senator Schumer and Chief of Staff Kelly.
Monday, 24 September 2018
Seats
Folks appear all hyped up to get Congress involved to mandate or manage leg-room on air flights. I sat kinda amazed that you needed to have the least capable people in the world.....brought in to fix something....especially leg-room.
The simple fix to this deal is to go and make them list the ticket for sale, and exactly how much room you get in chair 9B or 11A. Yes, you let folks know that you can buy a ticket for 30 inches of legroom between Chicago and Philly....for $155, or you can buy 28 inches of legroom for $140. Yep, up front.....you tell folks this. In fact, you could offer up some 'leaning-seat' where you stand for the entire flight, for $100, and I would imagine that you'd get twenty people on each plane who'd be willing to buy a standing ticket for a flight.
Getting Congress involved? The last thing on Earth you'd want to do....is get them to manage this solution for you.
The simple fix to this deal is to go and make them list the ticket for sale, and exactly how much room you get in chair 9B or 11A. Yes, you let folks know that you can buy a ticket for 30 inches of legroom between Chicago and Philly....for $155, or you can buy 28 inches of legroom for $140. Yep, up front.....you tell folks this. In fact, you could offer up some 'leaning-seat' where you stand for the entire flight, for $100, and I would imagine that you'd get twenty people on each plane who'd be willing to buy a standing ticket for a flight.
Getting Congress involved? The last thing on Earth you'd want to do....is get them to manage this solution for you.
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