I've sat for a day reviewing the decision to split the new 2nd headquarters between Queens and Crystal City.
I worked in the Pentagon area for 3.5 years and lived about 1-to-2 miles from the Pentagon and Crystal City. I know the area well.
On the miserability index....saddling another 25,000 workers into Crystal City? It's a solid '10'.
First, to reach Crystal City by car....you have to use the interstate chain either from DC, Maryland, south heading toward Richmond, or the Fairfax option. All of them right now....maxed out with DC workers and Pentagon folks. How another 25,000 workers transit in each day? Unknown.
Maybe they were brought enough to buy a parking garage area on the south end of the METRO subway system. Crystal City has a METRO link which goes south for about four miles, and then ends. If you had some massive garage at that end point, you could herd the Amazon folks into that garage and force them to use the METRO for the last four miles.
Second, housing. In 2013, for a studio place (15 by 35).....I was paying $1,150 for place which I'd regard as basic and nothing special....with heat, cooling and electricity. Today, it's probably near $1,300. By 2021, with Amazon there....I'll bet they push the rent for the studio up to $2,000. A two-bedroom place? Probably by that point.....for a decent place....it might be near $2,750.
Buying a house? Right in 2013, $400k was the basic standard, and for a better house....you needed $700k. With Amazon in the local area? I doubt if you can find anything for less than $750k. Most of the houses south of Arlington will be rising in the range of 40-percent by 2021. A guy who bought a great property back in 2005? He won't just double his investment, but maybe even triple it by 2030.
What's Crystal City like? It's an odd neighborhood. Massive 10 to 15 story buildings for about a mile on either side of the road. One Metro station in the middle. Reagan International about one mile to the east. Six to eight hotels.
Crime? Well, that's the odd thing. Virginia cops are fairly aggressive. What you found in DC.....simply didn't exist in Arlington or Crystal City.
Eating establishments? In Crystal City....at least in 2013, there were probably forty places where you could eat out. My guess is that will double by 2021.
The odd factor here? Tons of Pentagon contractors will likely go and saddle up with Amazon, and the pay-scale that the Pentagon was used to....will escalate big-time. The cost-of-living factor for GI's and civilian workers? It'll have to go up by 50-percent.
Arlington forced to add onto the 'Blue Line'? I would take a guess that another 5-mile link will be added by 2030. Maybe getting the link as far south as Woodbridge or Dale City, where you could park your car and avoid the interstate entirely.
Positive decision? No. I just can't see the logic to either Crystal City or Queens. It's added onto the cost factor of salaries and made working at either site a miserable experience.
Tuesday, 6 November 2018
728 Days
Here's the thing about today being election day....the clock starts ticking today....for the next election (3 November 2020).
As much as you think it's a relief to get over this election business and get everyone calmed down....nope, that clock is ticking by midnight.
If you go back forty years ago, in most states....you were lucky in a mid-term if 50-percent of the voters showed up. But things have intensified and now it's a dramatic event.
In some ways, it's become like a national circus touring the nation and everyone hyped up over a great act, and wanting the circus to be part of their everyday life. In the three rings, there's a clown act....some tigers jumping hoops....some lusty lady swinging on ropes....an elephant dancing....some tame horses pretending to be wild horses....and some dude in a suit who seems to know the right moment to tug on your heart.
So get out your calendar and project out 728 days. Prepare for everything to repeat itself again.
As much as you think it's a relief to get over this election business and get everyone calmed down....nope, that clock is ticking by midnight.
If you go back forty years ago, in most states....you were lucky in a mid-term if 50-percent of the voters showed up. But things have intensified and now it's a dramatic event.
In some ways, it's become like a national circus touring the nation and everyone hyped up over a great act, and wanting the circus to be part of their everyday life. In the three rings, there's a clown act....some tigers jumping hoops....some lusty lady swinging on ropes....an elephant dancing....some tame horses pretending to be wild horses....and some dude in a suit who seems to know the right moment to tug on your heart.
So get out your calendar and project out 728 days. Prepare for everything to repeat itself again.
Sunday, 4 November 2018
Warning Sign
Over and over.
I probably observed at least seven-hundred signs over a two-week period.
You saw them in public settings. You saw them in safari camp settings. You saw them on beaches. You saw them in public parks.
In a normal day.....I doubt if I went more than twenty minutes without observing them....at least outside of the hotel/lodge areas.
At some point, I began to wonder if this was the one and only warning you got prior to walking around some corner and meeting up with some snake or lion.
Saturday, 3 November 2018
The Effect of a March
Back in 2013, for a period of about six weeks, I went to walking ten to twelve miles a day (five days a week)....mostly on a trail-program here in Germany. Yes, there were a few hills built into this ritual daily walk.
By the end, I came to three conclusions: (1) I had lost around two full inches on my gut and probably 15 pounds (never starving but avoid fatty food in this period). (2) This quiet hike gave you plenty of time to think and ponder....dropping your blood pressure as part of the deal. And (3)....you came to grasp the intense nature of walking this twelve mile hike (taking three hours) and how a longer hike would have burned you out after a week.
So I turn and observe this caravan crowd coming out of Honduras, and heading through Mexico to the US border.
Folks come to discuss the crowd but rarely touch on the requirement of each day.
Calorie-wise, you need a minimum of 4,500 calories if you were going to hike 25 to 30 miles a day. Water-wise, you need roughly 32 ounces every two hours, so for a 12-hour piece of this caravan.....if you were walking.....you would need around 200 ounces of water (around 1.5 gallons) to survive. Seven days straight? Roughly ten gallons of water minimum.
I noticed this week that the Mexican cops pulled over some trucks carrying 'marchers', and have hindered buses from carrying the 'marchers'....in effect....making them carry out their objective of hiking a thousand miles. So this in effect caused some reporters to note in the past five days....folks have stopped marching (maybe 10 to 20 percent of the original group). My humble guess is that if the cops keep the buses and trucks are forced to quit hauling 'marchers'....that by next weekend, about half of the group will have stopped.
I would challenge anyone to go and pick up on the habit of walking ten miles a day and do it day after day....putting up twenty days in a month. You do build up stamina and it's great exercise but it also drains you and eats up on calories. A 160 pound guy on this go-to-America march? My guess is that in the heat and flat walk....he'll lose at least 20 pounds minimum. Dragging kids along on this march? A 80 pound 12-year old kid will probably lose 10 pounds minimum.
My hikes today? I'll do a 3 to 5 mile hike once or twice a week, and maybe twice a year go up to the sixteen mile situation. Hiking from Honduras to Texas? I'd probably pass on that idea.
By the end, I came to three conclusions: (1) I had lost around two full inches on my gut and probably 15 pounds (never starving but avoid fatty food in this period). (2) This quiet hike gave you plenty of time to think and ponder....dropping your blood pressure as part of the deal. And (3)....you came to grasp the intense nature of walking this twelve mile hike (taking three hours) and how a longer hike would have burned you out after a week.
So I turn and observe this caravan crowd coming out of Honduras, and heading through Mexico to the US border.
Folks come to discuss the crowd but rarely touch on the requirement of each day.
Calorie-wise, you need a minimum of 4,500 calories if you were going to hike 25 to 30 miles a day. Water-wise, you need roughly 32 ounces every two hours, so for a 12-hour piece of this caravan.....if you were walking.....you would need around 200 ounces of water (around 1.5 gallons) to survive. Seven days straight? Roughly ten gallons of water minimum.
I noticed this week that the Mexican cops pulled over some trucks carrying 'marchers', and have hindered buses from carrying the 'marchers'....in effect....making them carry out their objective of hiking a thousand miles. So this in effect caused some reporters to note in the past five days....folks have stopped marching (maybe 10 to 20 percent of the original group). My humble guess is that if the cops keep the buses and trucks are forced to quit hauling 'marchers'....that by next weekend, about half of the group will have stopped.
I would challenge anyone to go and pick up on the habit of walking ten miles a day and do it day after day....putting up twenty days in a month. You do build up stamina and it's great exercise but it also drains you and eats up on calories. A 160 pound guy on this go-to-America march? My guess is that in the heat and flat walk....he'll lose at least 20 pounds minimum. Dragging kids along on this march? A 80 pound 12-year old kid will probably lose 10 pounds minimum.
My hikes today? I'll do a 3 to 5 mile hike once or twice a week, and maybe twice a year go up to the sixteen mile situation. Hiking from Honduras to Texas? I'd probably pass on that idea.
The Potential Obama Impact?
Here on Wednesday of next week, a great deal of drama will unfold as the analysts sit and pick over the results of the 2018 campaign period. One question laying there.....did the campaign effort of former President Obama help or hinder Democrats?
I've viewed three of these campaign stop speeches by former President Obama over the past month, and noted that the camera angles selected.....marginalize the counting of people at the rally. It might be five-thousand folks showing up.....it might be 500 people showing up. You just can't say.
If there are no real gains in the House for Democrats (I'm suggesting perhaps five to ten seats flipping over to the Democrats at best)....then was the act of bringing in former President Obama a mistake? I don't think so. There are certain particular areas that I would label as Obama-impact 'zones'. Across all fifty states? No. But I would suggest that there are probably twenty small urban zones in the US where some speech by President Obama might persuade another 10,000 voters in some region to show up (when they weren't interested), and vote Democrat.
But if we get to Wednesday and find zero seats gained? It'll be hard for the Democrats to talk over future use of former President Obama.
I've viewed three of these campaign stop speeches by former President Obama over the past month, and noted that the camera angles selected.....marginalize the counting of people at the rally. It might be five-thousand folks showing up.....it might be 500 people showing up. You just can't say.
If there are no real gains in the House for Democrats (I'm suggesting perhaps five to ten seats flipping over to the Democrats at best)....then was the act of bringing in former President Obama a mistake? I don't think so. There are certain particular areas that I would label as Obama-impact 'zones'. Across all fifty states? No. But I would suggest that there are probably twenty small urban zones in the US where some speech by President Obama might persuade another 10,000 voters in some region to show up (when they weren't interested), and vote Democrat.
But if we get to Wednesday and find zero seats gained? It'll be hard for the Democrats to talk over future use of former President Obama.
Wednesday, 31 October 2018
South Africa: 20 Observeations
So after two weeks of a 'tour'.....I'll offer my observations:
1. While posing as a nation, it's basically twenty-odd groups with various agendas and lacking any real unification. Toss in tribes, political groups, the Dutch, the Brits, the illegals....there's nothing over the past thousand years that has unified the area.
2. The Rand has a value of 15 Rand to the dollar. So, the exchange rate is pretty crazy. You could lay out 15,000 Rand on your tables, and it's a thousand dollars.....which is what you'd basically need for pocket money, beer, food, etc.....for two weeks. Oh, and for tips? best to get 50 and 100 Rand notes in a pocket and be ready at least three times a day to tip someone.
3. Food, beer and drinks. I actually had some mighty fine beer while there, probably consumed forty cocktail drinks over a two week period (mostly because the cost factor was so low....four dollars per drink). On food, I ate ribs at least five times over that period (never more than $12 to $14 a plate) and have to admit that they know how to grill. A guy won't lose weight while there.
4. Safari jeeps. I went on four different trail rides over the period there, and just kept wondering about the safety of the vehicles. Tires? Mostly all bald. At some point, the guides jeep wouldn't start while our open-jeep was sitting in lion-territory. We sat there for ten minutes, kinda looking for lions to approach (no gun in the jeep, I should note).
5. Crime? Just about everywhere you look.....barbed wired fences and high walls. People have electrified fences around their houses, and have posted signs to noted 'armed response'. I asked about the rate of crime and folks in the rural area say it's awful rare. Folks around Cape Town? They suggest a higher rate of crime. People talk about murders but there is no indication that it's any worse than Memphis or Atlanta.
6. Languages. There's a minimum of a dozen languages typically spoken, and people argue over English being the national language. My humble guess is that two-thirds of the population can speak some level of English.....meaning marginal English. But a fair portion of rural folks you bump into....are into tribal dialects.
7. Bathroom outlets.....non-existent. You can go into any hotel bathroom, and find no outlets. I asked about this and the comment is that the national standard outlet plug....is so big and huge, that it attracts moisture in a humid room, and it would b dangerous if you had such a outlet there, so there is a standard among electricians.....no outlets in the bathroom.
8. Whites live in overly protected compound-suburbs......period.
9. Wild dogs are considered a protected breed of 'critter', so you can't go off and shoot them (under any reason). Now, the other side of this story.....they often carry various diseases (like malaria for example)....so you don't want to get friendly with them at all.
10. Landscape. Once you leave urban areas, I would qualify South Africa as one of the most scenic countries in the world. Forty years ago, it would have made sense to fly in....rent a jeep, and just drive cross-country for six weeks. Today? Because of crime and threats, I wouldn't recommend it. Getting out and walking around? Well....there's that snake issue. But I spent two weeks seeing the country, and never saw a single snake.
11. Drugs. In the urban areas, folks are hyped up and frustrated with the amount of drug trafficking going on. Meth, crack, etc.
12. Game preserves. Basically, you have a bunch of western folks (US, Europe) who use charity foundations to support the purchase of protected preserves. Most are in the 25 to 100 square mile size, with a complete security fence keeping the 'critters' inside of the 'park'. They hire up a doze-odd locals to scout out and prevent hunters from harming any of the animals.
13. I ended up on a township-tour (the German wife wanted to see one up close and personal). The guide ended up walking us through the concrete block buildings.....mostly all 'crap'. At some point, we entered and I noted on the wall......heavy amount of black mildew (the kind that you really don't want to inhale or touch). There is marginally support that the black-controlled and dominate political party wants to do in reshaping this whole 'ghetto' landscape.
14. Trust in statistics, data or political positions is virtually a joke. Doesn't matter who you discuss the matter with.....folks don't believe much of anything they are told.....doesn't matter if you are black or white.
15. The drought. On the far west end of South Africa is the drought affected area. Every shower and sink in a hotel-room are fitted with water-flow devices. What you'd typically expect in the US.....is coming out at 30-percent the rate you'd have in Cape Town. A 90-second shower is the norm, and there's a sign in each bathroom to note that suggestion. The hotel pool? Shutdown.
16. South Africans have a population of 55-odd-million.....which most disbelieve. Most will throw another four million illegals in the country. A lot of the criminal element is now thrown on the illegals in the country.....at least people believe that.
17. Friendly nature. After two weeks of driving around and interacting with probably 200-odd folks, I would suggest that most every person I met.....was friendly. The accents of English might have made it a bit difficult, but you just didn't meet anyone of a unfriendly nature.
18. Nightly TV options? Crap. In the rural areas, you are mostly dependent on Netflix, reading, or DVDs.
19. Virtually every town of any size that you drove through....had a Kentucky Fried Chicken.
20. It was awful hot for five of the days there.....94 degrees. But the wind was there virtually every single day....five to ten mph.
1. While posing as a nation, it's basically twenty-odd groups with various agendas and lacking any real unification. Toss in tribes, political groups, the Dutch, the Brits, the illegals....there's nothing over the past thousand years that has unified the area.
2. The Rand has a value of 15 Rand to the dollar. So, the exchange rate is pretty crazy. You could lay out 15,000 Rand on your tables, and it's a thousand dollars.....which is what you'd basically need for pocket money, beer, food, etc.....for two weeks. Oh, and for tips? best to get 50 and 100 Rand notes in a pocket and be ready at least three times a day to tip someone.
3. Food, beer and drinks. I actually had some mighty fine beer while there, probably consumed forty cocktail drinks over a two week period (mostly because the cost factor was so low....four dollars per drink). On food, I ate ribs at least five times over that period (never more than $12 to $14 a plate) and have to admit that they know how to grill. A guy won't lose weight while there. 4. Safari jeeps. I went on four different trail rides over the period there, and just kept wondering about the safety of the vehicles. Tires? Mostly all bald. At some point, the guides jeep wouldn't start while our open-jeep was sitting in lion-territory. We sat there for ten minutes, kinda looking for lions to approach (no gun in the jeep, I should note).
5. Crime? Just about everywhere you look.....barbed wired fences and high walls. People have electrified fences around their houses, and have posted signs to noted 'armed response'. I asked about the rate of crime and folks in the rural area say it's awful rare. Folks around Cape Town? They suggest a higher rate of crime. People talk about murders but there is no indication that it's any worse than Memphis or Atlanta.
6. Languages. There's a minimum of a dozen languages typically spoken, and people argue over English being the national language. My humble guess is that two-thirds of the population can speak some level of English.....meaning marginal English. But a fair portion of rural folks you bump into....are into tribal dialects.
7. Bathroom outlets.....non-existent. You can go into any hotel bathroom, and find no outlets. I asked about this and the comment is that the national standard outlet plug....is so big and huge, that it attracts moisture in a humid room, and it would b dangerous if you had such a outlet there, so there is a standard among electricians.....no outlets in the bathroom.
8. Whites live in overly protected compound-suburbs......period.
9. Wild dogs are considered a protected breed of 'critter', so you can't go off and shoot them (under any reason). Now, the other side of this story.....they often carry various diseases (like malaria for example)....so you don't want to get friendly with them at all.10. Landscape. Once you leave urban areas, I would qualify South Africa as one of the most scenic countries in the world. Forty years ago, it would have made sense to fly in....rent a jeep, and just drive cross-country for six weeks. Today? Because of crime and threats, I wouldn't recommend it. Getting out and walking around? Well....there's that snake issue. But I spent two weeks seeing the country, and never saw a single snake.
11. Drugs. In the urban areas, folks are hyped up and frustrated with the amount of drug trafficking going on. Meth, crack, etc.
12. Game preserves. Basically, you have a bunch of western folks (US, Europe) who use charity foundations to support the purchase of protected preserves. Most are in the 25 to 100 square mile size, with a complete security fence keeping the 'critters' inside of the 'park'. They hire up a doze-odd locals to scout out and prevent hunters from harming any of the animals.
13. I ended up on a township-tour (the German wife wanted to see one up close and personal). The guide ended up walking us through the concrete block buildings.....mostly all 'crap'. At some point, we entered and I noted on the wall......heavy amount of black mildew (the kind that you really don't want to inhale or touch). There is marginally support that the black-controlled and dominate political party wants to do in reshaping this whole 'ghetto' landscape.
14. Trust in statistics, data or political positions is virtually a joke. Doesn't matter who you discuss the matter with.....folks don't believe much of anything they are told.....doesn't matter if you are black or white.
15. The drought. On the far west end of South Africa is the drought affected area. Every shower and sink in a hotel-room are fitted with water-flow devices. What you'd typically expect in the US.....is coming out at 30-percent the rate you'd have in Cape Town. A 90-second shower is the norm, and there's a sign in each bathroom to note that suggestion. The hotel pool? Shutdown.
16. South Africans have a population of 55-odd-million.....which most disbelieve. Most will throw another four million illegals in the country. A lot of the criminal element is now thrown on the illegals in the country.....at least people believe that.
17. Friendly nature. After two weeks of driving around and interacting with probably 200-odd folks, I would suggest that most every person I met.....was friendly. The accents of English might have made it a bit difficult, but you just didn't meet anyone of a unfriendly nature.
18. Nightly TV options? Crap. In the rural areas, you are mostly dependent on Netflix, reading, or DVDs.
19. Virtually every town of any size that you drove through....had a Kentucky Fried Chicken.
20. It was awful hot for five of the days there.....94 degrees. But the wind was there virtually every single day....five to ten mph.
Saturday, 27 October 2018
South Africa Farm Chat
If you live in South Africa, there is a political episode going on....where farm redistribution is being discussed.
The emphasis here centers on four facts (truth value is relative).
1. Whites have held a high ownership level, from day one.
2. 13 percent of the nation is farmable, which is debatable. Irrigation figures into this.
3. The ANC Party says no compensation is required, which worries banks and export folks.
4. The opposition folks say compensation would make this legit but would mean tens of billions of dollars of value.
I watched 15 minutes of regional news cover this last night. The ANC folks felt compensation was a no-go.....it would not open for discussion.
The odd pieces?
1. Vineyards, worth ten of millions are part of the episode. Some have irrigation systems and private dams.
2. Orchards play into this.
3. The ANC has has two decades to figure out the profitable operations, and one might suspect they have a list ready to go.
4. The odds that an orchard owner would cut down his operation if state papers arrived? I would suggest a 90 percent chance....same for vineyard owners.
5. Trump? He could stop import of regional fruit and wine...suggesting the EU do the same.
6. Banks stand to lose billions in farm debt.
7. Ownership by companies? Some exist, but no one suggests how this would be handled.
8. Breaking farms apart? No, that isn't being discussed.
9. Ownership by ANC political folks, their relatives, proxy players, etc? It is suggested but nothing on paper exists and you have no idea who the new farm owners would be.
10. The round number of 50 percent black ownership? Does it mean total farm land in the country or just farms? Again, this is not clear. Could you end up with 80 percent of their goal in just one state or province? Well, in theory, yes....but again, there no law to say how this works. Could every single vineyard end up with state papers? In theory, yes.
I will guarantee that this law will pass, and a list of a dozen farms and vineyards will be seized to make headlines in the first month. But I suspect after the owners have burned down the operation, blown up dams, and cut the orchards and vineyards down....things will get awful quiet. Cleaning up the mess will be impossible.
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