What if the Democrats go and make the entire period of 2019 and 2020....on some massive Trump investigation period, with zero 'other' accomplishments?
Two whole years, with soap-opera-like theatrics....CNN, Fox, and the networks hyped on the 'story'....and absolutely nothing done beyond that?
It's an interesting question to sit and speculate upon, with the odds now that the House will have just enough seats for the Democrats to control the message.
I anticipate three things out of this period:
1. A massive shutdown of the government will occur over budget talks in 2019, and this shutdown will likely go beyond 90 days, with some federal workers in massive despair over their lack of a pay-check and a catastrophic 'doomed' landscape for politics in general.
2. Another Supreme Court seat will come up to be filled, and we will get another round of Kavanaugh-like opera. But this time, with a likely 56-seat situation for the GOP....it might be less theatrics.
3. A majority of Americans will be fed up with politics in general by 2020....fed up with television news....fed up with journalists....with open confrontation taking place.
If you thought the last two years were just a marginal TV political reality show.....get prepared, we are doubling up now.
Wednesday, 7 November 2018
The Non-Existent Swift Effect
There were probably a hundred odd political 'games' out of 2018, but the one that interested me a great deal....was the Tennessee Senate race (Blackburn - R, Bredesen -D).
About a month ago, all hell broke loose when pop singer Taylor Swift stood up and did a big social media call out.....to support Bredesen. At the time, everyone was hyped up....all chatty...that this one single endorsement would figure into the 18-year old voter group, and bring tens of thousands of votes over to Phil Bredesen.
Well....as the smoked has cleared....it's an eleven point margin for Blackburn.
The Swift-effect? There is virtually no indication of an effect. I think if the PhD guys sat and did a survey over it....there were probably about a thousand 'kids' who stood up and said Swift helped to settle their mind over the election.
So this brings me to the real discussion. If so-and-so actor or singer comes up to chat over some candidate....does it really matter? Thirty years ago, I would have said it's absolutely zero on the scale. Today? I would suggest it might have moved up from zero to maybe one or two percent chance.
Now, if this was a catchy comment....made by Clint Eastwood....it might be remembered and thought about. But this is like you asking your Waffle House pancake guy what he thought, or the exotic dancer at the Tin Star bar, or the Piggly Wiggly cashier....what they thought about election choices. It just doesn't happen that way in the real world, unless you accept advice left and right...from strangers on the street.
Why did we listen to the journalists hyping this a month ago? That's the thing about this. Thirty years ago....you would have dismissed the Taylor Swift comment in sixty seconds flat. Somehow, it now dwells on our mind and and we seriously think that Swift might flip 100,000 votes.
Scientists ought to study this Swift effect and talk about how you get nothing, out of nothing.
About a month ago, all hell broke loose when pop singer Taylor Swift stood up and did a big social media call out.....to support Bredesen. At the time, everyone was hyped up....all chatty...that this one single endorsement would figure into the 18-year old voter group, and bring tens of thousands of votes over to Phil Bredesen.
Well....as the smoked has cleared....it's an eleven point margin for Blackburn.
The Swift-effect? There is virtually no indication of an effect. I think if the PhD guys sat and did a survey over it....there were probably about a thousand 'kids' who stood up and said Swift helped to settle their mind over the election.
So this brings me to the real discussion. If so-and-so actor or singer comes up to chat over some candidate....does it really matter? Thirty years ago, I would have said it's absolutely zero on the scale. Today? I would suggest it might have moved up from zero to maybe one or two percent chance.
Now, if this was a catchy comment....made by Clint Eastwood....it might be remembered and thought about. But this is like you asking your Waffle House pancake guy what he thought, or the exotic dancer at the Tin Star bar, or the Piggly Wiggly cashier....what they thought about election choices. It just doesn't happen that way in the real world, unless you accept advice left and right...from strangers on the street.
Why did we listen to the journalists hyping this a month ago? That's the thing about this. Thirty years ago....you would have dismissed the Taylor Swift comment in sixty seconds flat. Somehow, it now dwells on our mind and and we seriously think that Swift might flip 100,000 votes.
Scientists ought to study this Swift effect and talk about how you get nothing, out of nothing.
Tuesday, 6 November 2018
Amazon? Crystal City and Queens?
I've sat for a day reviewing the decision to split the new 2nd headquarters between Queens and Crystal City.
I worked in the Pentagon area for 3.5 years and lived about 1-to-2 miles from the Pentagon and Crystal City. I know the area well.
On the miserability index....saddling another 25,000 workers into Crystal City? It's a solid '10'.
First, to reach Crystal City by car....you have to use the interstate chain either from DC, Maryland, south heading toward Richmond, or the Fairfax option. All of them right now....maxed out with DC workers and Pentagon folks. How another 25,000 workers transit in each day? Unknown.
Maybe they were brought enough to buy a parking garage area on the south end of the METRO subway system. Crystal City has a METRO link which goes south for about four miles, and then ends. If you had some massive garage at that end point, you could herd the Amazon folks into that garage and force them to use the METRO for the last four miles.
Second, housing. In 2013, for a studio place (15 by 35).....I was paying $1,150 for place which I'd regard as basic and nothing special....with heat, cooling and electricity. Today, it's probably near $1,300. By 2021, with Amazon there....I'll bet they push the rent for the studio up to $2,000. A two-bedroom place? Probably by that point.....for a decent place....it might be near $2,750.
Buying a house? Right in 2013, $400k was the basic standard, and for a better house....you needed $700k. With Amazon in the local area? I doubt if you can find anything for less than $750k. Most of the houses south of Arlington will be rising in the range of 40-percent by 2021. A guy who bought a great property back in 2005? He won't just double his investment, but maybe even triple it by 2030.
What's Crystal City like? It's an odd neighborhood. Massive 10 to 15 story buildings for about a mile on either side of the road. One Metro station in the middle. Reagan International about one mile to the east. Six to eight hotels.
Crime? Well, that's the odd thing. Virginia cops are fairly aggressive. What you found in DC.....simply didn't exist in Arlington or Crystal City.
Eating establishments? In Crystal City....at least in 2013, there were probably forty places where you could eat out. My guess is that will double by 2021.
The odd factor here? Tons of Pentagon contractors will likely go and saddle up with Amazon, and the pay-scale that the Pentagon was used to....will escalate big-time. The cost-of-living factor for GI's and civilian workers? It'll have to go up by 50-percent.
Arlington forced to add onto the 'Blue Line'? I would take a guess that another 5-mile link will be added by 2030. Maybe getting the link as far south as Woodbridge or Dale City, where you could park your car and avoid the interstate entirely.
Positive decision? No. I just can't see the logic to either Crystal City or Queens. It's added onto the cost factor of salaries and made working at either site a miserable experience.
I worked in the Pentagon area for 3.5 years and lived about 1-to-2 miles from the Pentagon and Crystal City. I know the area well.
On the miserability index....saddling another 25,000 workers into Crystal City? It's a solid '10'.
First, to reach Crystal City by car....you have to use the interstate chain either from DC, Maryland, south heading toward Richmond, or the Fairfax option. All of them right now....maxed out with DC workers and Pentagon folks. How another 25,000 workers transit in each day? Unknown.
Maybe they were brought enough to buy a parking garage area on the south end of the METRO subway system. Crystal City has a METRO link which goes south for about four miles, and then ends. If you had some massive garage at that end point, you could herd the Amazon folks into that garage and force them to use the METRO for the last four miles.
Second, housing. In 2013, for a studio place (15 by 35).....I was paying $1,150 for place which I'd regard as basic and nothing special....with heat, cooling and electricity. Today, it's probably near $1,300. By 2021, with Amazon there....I'll bet they push the rent for the studio up to $2,000. A two-bedroom place? Probably by that point.....for a decent place....it might be near $2,750.
Buying a house? Right in 2013, $400k was the basic standard, and for a better house....you needed $700k. With Amazon in the local area? I doubt if you can find anything for less than $750k. Most of the houses south of Arlington will be rising in the range of 40-percent by 2021. A guy who bought a great property back in 2005? He won't just double his investment, but maybe even triple it by 2030.
What's Crystal City like? It's an odd neighborhood. Massive 10 to 15 story buildings for about a mile on either side of the road. One Metro station in the middle. Reagan International about one mile to the east. Six to eight hotels.
Crime? Well, that's the odd thing. Virginia cops are fairly aggressive. What you found in DC.....simply didn't exist in Arlington or Crystal City.
Eating establishments? In Crystal City....at least in 2013, there were probably forty places where you could eat out. My guess is that will double by 2021.
The odd factor here? Tons of Pentagon contractors will likely go and saddle up with Amazon, and the pay-scale that the Pentagon was used to....will escalate big-time. The cost-of-living factor for GI's and civilian workers? It'll have to go up by 50-percent.
Arlington forced to add onto the 'Blue Line'? I would take a guess that another 5-mile link will be added by 2030. Maybe getting the link as far south as Woodbridge or Dale City, where you could park your car and avoid the interstate entirely.
Positive decision? No. I just can't see the logic to either Crystal City or Queens. It's added onto the cost factor of salaries and made working at either site a miserable experience.
728 Days
Here's the thing about today being election day....the clock starts ticking today....for the next election (3 November 2020).
As much as you think it's a relief to get over this election business and get everyone calmed down....nope, that clock is ticking by midnight.
If you go back forty years ago, in most states....you were lucky in a mid-term if 50-percent of the voters showed up. But things have intensified and now it's a dramatic event.
In some ways, it's become like a national circus touring the nation and everyone hyped up over a great act, and wanting the circus to be part of their everyday life. In the three rings, there's a clown act....some tigers jumping hoops....some lusty lady swinging on ropes....an elephant dancing....some tame horses pretending to be wild horses....and some dude in a suit who seems to know the right moment to tug on your heart.
So get out your calendar and project out 728 days. Prepare for everything to repeat itself again.
As much as you think it's a relief to get over this election business and get everyone calmed down....nope, that clock is ticking by midnight.
If you go back forty years ago, in most states....you were lucky in a mid-term if 50-percent of the voters showed up. But things have intensified and now it's a dramatic event.
In some ways, it's become like a national circus touring the nation and everyone hyped up over a great act, and wanting the circus to be part of their everyday life. In the three rings, there's a clown act....some tigers jumping hoops....some lusty lady swinging on ropes....an elephant dancing....some tame horses pretending to be wild horses....and some dude in a suit who seems to know the right moment to tug on your heart.
So get out your calendar and project out 728 days. Prepare for everything to repeat itself again.
Sunday, 4 November 2018
Warning Sign
Over and over.
I probably observed at least seven-hundred signs over a two-week period.
You saw them in public settings. You saw them in safari camp settings. You saw them on beaches. You saw them in public parks.
In a normal day.....I doubt if I went more than twenty minutes without observing them....at least outside of the hotel/lodge areas.
At some point, I began to wonder if this was the one and only warning you got prior to walking around some corner and meeting up with some snake or lion.
Saturday, 3 November 2018
The Effect of a March
Back in 2013, for a period of about six weeks, I went to walking ten to twelve miles a day (five days a week)....mostly on a trail-program here in Germany. Yes, there were a few hills built into this ritual daily walk.
By the end, I came to three conclusions: (1) I had lost around two full inches on my gut and probably 15 pounds (never starving but avoid fatty food in this period). (2) This quiet hike gave you plenty of time to think and ponder....dropping your blood pressure as part of the deal. And (3)....you came to grasp the intense nature of walking this twelve mile hike (taking three hours) and how a longer hike would have burned you out after a week.
So I turn and observe this caravan crowd coming out of Honduras, and heading through Mexico to the US border.
Folks come to discuss the crowd but rarely touch on the requirement of each day.
Calorie-wise, you need a minimum of 4,500 calories if you were going to hike 25 to 30 miles a day. Water-wise, you need roughly 32 ounces every two hours, so for a 12-hour piece of this caravan.....if you were walking.....you would need around 200 ounces of water (around 1.5 gallons) to survive. Seven days straight? Roughly ten gallons of water minimum.
I noticed this week that the Mexican cops pulled over some trucks carrying 'marchers', and have hindered buses from carrying the 'marchers'....in effect....making them carry out their objective of hiking a thousand miles. So this in effect caused some reporters to note in the past five days....folks have stopped marching (maybe 10 to 20 percent of the original group). My humble guess is that if the cops keep the buses and trucks are forced to quit hauling 'marchers'....that by next weekend, about half of the group will have stopped.
I would challenge anyone to go and pick up on the habit of walking ten miles a day and do it day after day....putting up twenty days in a month. You do build up stamina and it's great exercise but it also drains you and eats up on calories. A 160 pound guy on this go-to-America march? My guess is that in the heat and flat walk....he'll lose at least 20 pounds minimum. Dragging kids along on this march? A 80 pound 12-year old kid will probably lose 10 pounds minimum.
My hikes today? I'll do a 3 to 5 mile hike once or twice a week, and maybe twice a year go up to the sixteen mile situation. Hiking from Honduras to Texas? I'd probably pass on that idea.
By the end, I came to three conclusions: (1) I had lost around two full inches on my gut and probably 15 pounds (never starving but avoid fatty food in this period). (2) This quiet hike gave you plenty of time to think and ponder....dropping your blood pressure as part of the deal. And (3)....you came to grasp the intense nature of walking this twelve mile hike (taking three hours) and how a longer hike would have burned you out after a week.
So I turn and observe this caravan crowd coming out of Honduras, and heading through Mexico to the US border.
Folks come to discuss the crowd but rarely touch on the requirement of each day.
Calorie-wise, you need a minimum of 4,500 calories if you were going to hike 25 to 30 miles a day. Water-wise, you need roughly 32 ounces every two hours, so for a 12-hour piece of this caravan.....if you were walking.....you would need around 200 ounces of water (around 1.5 gallons) to survive. Seven days straight? Roughly ten gallons of water minimum.
I noticed this week that the Mexican cops pulled over some trucks carrying 'marchers', and have hindered buses from carrying the 'marchers'....in effect....making them carry out their objective of hiking a thousand miles. So this in effect caused some reporters to note in the past five days....folks have stopped marching (maybe 10 to 20 percent of the original group). My humble guess is that if the cops keep the buses and trucks are forced to quit hauling 'marchers'....that by next weekend, about half of the group will have stopped.
I would challenge anyone to go and pick up on the habit of walking ten miles a day and do it day after day....putting up twenty days in a month. You do build up stamina and it's great exercise but it also drains you and eats up on calories. A 160 pound guy on this go-to-America march? My guess is that in the heat and flat walk....he'll lose at least 20 pounds minimum. Dragging kids along on this march? A 80 pound 12-year old kid will probably lose 10 pounds minimum.
My hikes today? I'll do a 3 to 5 mile hike once or twice a week, and maybe twice a year go up to the sixteen mile situation. Hiking from Honduras to Texas? I'd probably pass on that idea.
The Potential Obama Impact?
Here on Wednesday of next week, a great deal of drama will unfold as the analysts sit and pick over the results of the 2018 campaign period. One question laying there.....did the campaign effort of former President Obama help or hinder Democrats?
I've viewed three of these campaign stop speeches by former President Obama over the past month, and noted that the camera angles selected.....marginalize the counting of people at the rally. It might be five-thousand folks showing up.....it might be 500 people showing up. You just can't say.
If there are no real gains in the House for Democrats (I'm suggesting perhaps five to ten seats flipping over to the Democrats at best)....then was the act of bringing in former President Obama a mistake? I don't think so. There are certain particular areas that I would label as Obama-impact 'zones'. Across all fifty states? No. But I would suggest that there are probably twenty small urban zones in the US where some speech by President Obama might persuade another 10,000 voters in some region to show up (when they weren't interested), and vote Democrat.
But if we get to Wednesday and find zero seats gained? It'll be hard for the Democrats to talk over future use of former President Obama.
I've viewed three of these campaign stop speeches by former President Obama over the past month, and noted that the camera angles selected.....marginalize the counting of people at the rally. It might be five-thousand folks showing up.....it might be 500 people showing up. You just can't say.
If there are no real gains in the House for Democrats (I'm suggesting perhaps five to ten seats flipping over to the Democrats at best)....then was the act of bringing in former President Obama a mistake? I don't think so. There are certain particular areas that I would label as Obama-impact 'zones'. Across all fifty states? No. But I would suggest that there are probably twenty small urban zones in the US where some speech by President Obama might persuade another 10,000 voters in some region to show up (when they weren't interested), and vote Democrat.
But if we get to Wednesday and find zero seats gained? It'll be hard for the Democrats to talk over future use of former President Obama.
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