The plan put out today is that the US troops would leave rather quickly out of Syria, and Turkey would be taking the ISIS prisoners, with the likely plan for Turkey to exercise control over this extreme northern region of Syria (the Kurds operate this zone).
Anger by the Kurds? They kinda want their own independent area, without Assad or the Turks, and the US 'protection' was the only way to achieve that.
How many US troops? No one really says. It might just be in the 1,000 to 2,000 range.
So what happens now? First, you have to wonder about these ISIS prisoners, of which around a thousand are European prisoners, and Trump wanted all of them returned to their native lands.....which most European countries said 'NO'.
What will Turkey say? I'm guessing here, but I think they will put them on a raft with clean clothing and drop them as refugees on some Greek isle, and a month or two down the line.....some Greeks piece together that these are all former ISIS folks....getting highly upset. The Turks offering to take them back? Maybe, but for a price.
As for this Kurd influence continuing in northern Syria? No....that will end.
It wasn't the war for the US to be in, or change dynamics. Go back to Senator McCain's visit in 2013, and ask about his connection to the ISIS players at that meeting. A bunch of people felt they were helping....in bringing civil war to Syria. In the end, they just made it more miserable for everyone in Syria.
Monday, 7 October 2019
Reforger 2020?
Back in 1969, the US went and held a major military exercise in Germany...which was coined 'Reforger'. The key to the 1969 exercise was that it would involve all of the US Army troops in Germany, and transport ships/aircraft would bring thousands more.
Through the years, all the way to May of 1993, there was a Reforger exercise (there are a couple of exceptions in this period, but it was almost yearly). Most Army guys would describe it as three to four weeks on the go....either to get to the play area, to participate in the 'gaming', and then to return to home station.
At the conclusion of 1993 exercise, that was generally it. No one felt an urgent need to do some massive exercise of that size. Well, up until now.
What the exercise was mostly about? That's an amusing part of the story....typically there's no bullets fired or cannon rounds involved. The 'teams' move from point 'A' to point 'B', then move to point 'C', and onto 'D'....with some end-of-exercise announcement. It's mostly to say that you could move thousands of troops in a matter of days across the Atlantic, and be prepared for some conflict.
Today, the US and Germany announced that in the spring of 2020.....37,000 US Army troops will participate in another massive exercise. They will gather in Germany (via transport ships and aircraft, along with present-day assigned US troops in Germany) and make their way to Poland and the Baltic region. Both countries kinda admit....they haven't done anything like this in at least 25 year. I would go and suggest that it's the most massive exercise since 1993.
Just the US and Germany involved? No....19 members of NATO will participate.
Problems?
Well, let's start with the general hub for the US tank and APC vehicles will be in Luneburg. That's the hub point. It's roughly 30 miles SE of Hamburg....the capital of radicals, extremists, and revolutionaries. Every single group in Hamburg will be focused on Luneburg, and thousands of German police will be required to 'keep the peace'.
Anger by the Green and Linke Party membership? Yes, they will voice some concern, and likely call for Germany to leave NATO. I expect half of the SPD Party membership to agree with that topic.
Harsh journalistic criticism.....that Germany doesn't need these type of exercises? Probably so. Public TV networks will do forums over the topic.
The potential failures of the German Bundeswehr to cease movement or operations because of maintenance issues? That's guaranteed, and I'll even wager that a quarter of all German tanks are red-lined by the 10th day.
The Greta-kids and XR-kids demonstrating against the military exercise? More than likely.
So if this ends up as a massive 'goat-rope' (the US term for a 9th-degree mess).....you can look across the German spectrum and identify all of the problems and suggest that Germany is unable to participate in NATO because of maintenance issues, money woes, and public frustration with radicals. Politically, it would be a thorn for the 2021 national election in Germany.
Through the years, all the way to May of 1993, there was a Reforger exercise (there are a couple of exceptions in this period, but it was almost yearly). Most Army guys would describe it as three to four weeks on the go....either to get to the play area, to participate in the 'gaming', and then to return to home station.
At the conclusion of 1993 exercise, that was generally it. No one felt an urgent need to do some massive exercise of that size. Well, up until now.
What the exercise was mostly about? That's an amusing part of the story....typically there's no bullets fired or cannon rounds involved. The 'teams' move from point 'A' to point 'B', then move to point 'C', and onto 'D'....with some end-of-exercise announcement. It's mostly to say that you could move thousands of troops in a matter of days across the Atlantic, and be prepared for some conflict.
Today, the US and Germany announced that in the spring of 2020.....37,000 US Army troops will participate in another massive exercise. They will gather in Germany (via transport ships and aircraft, along with present-day assigned US troops in Germany) and make their way to Poland and the Baltic region. Both countries kinda admit....they haven't done anything like this in at least 25 year. I would go and suggest that it's the most massive exercise since 1993.
Just the US and Germany involved? No....19 members of NATO will participate.
Problems?
Well, let's start with the general hub for the US tank and APC vehicles will be in Luneburg. That's the hub point. It's roughly 30 miles SE of Hamburg....the capital of radicals, extremists, and revolutionaries. Every single group in Hamburg will be focused on Luneburg, and thousands of German police will be required to 'keep the peace'.
Anger by the Green and Linke Party membership? Yes, they will voice some concern, and likely call for Germany to leave NATO. I expect half of the SPD Party membership to agree with that topic.
Harsh journalistic criticism.....that Germany doesn't need these type of exercises? Probably so. Public TV networks will do forums over the topic.
The potential failures of the German Bundeswehr to cease movement or operations because of maintenance issues? That's guaranteed, and I'll even wager that a quarter of all German tanks are red-lined by the 10th day.
The Greta-kids and XR-kids demonstrating against the military exercise? More than likely.
So if this ends up as a massive 'goat-rope' (the US term for a 9th-degree mess).....you can look across the German spectrum and identify all of the problems and suggest that Germany is unable to participate in NATO because of maintenance issues, money woes, and public frustration with radicals. Politically, it would be a thorn for the 2021 national election in Germany.
The Gate and Security
In early August of 1977....late into the evening, our bus from the San Antonio airport had pulled up to Lackland AFB for boot-camp. It was one of those moments that you kinda remember. SPs at the gate getting the Ok by the military guy escorting us (forty of us on the bus) to enter. The gate-guards? All armed with a pistol. There was a sign or two, but you couldn't make that out (too small of font).
As the months and years went by, you got use to the gate procedure, and eventually one day....I stood close enough to the stupid signs to read them. You actually need to be within eight feet to read the small font. It basically says there's significant security on this military reservation, and either 'force' or 'deadly force' is then uttered.
It's hard to say if there's any difference between 'force' and 'deadly force'. Either way, Airman Cindy has a pistol.
After 9-11, all that 'deadly force' stuff ramped-up and the guards all started to hold M-16s and if you did something really stupid....you were going to be shot dead. Along the way, they installed the flip-barriers, which take around two seconds to come up enough to stop all vehicles.
So this 'accident' at Warner-Robins AFB, Georgia on Friday evening interests me. Some car speeds through.....never showing an ID, and the SP guard hits the button for the barrier to pop-up. With the high speed of the car, and impact....two guys are immediately dead and the third will die at the hospital. Oddly, all three lacked an ID, and two days after the accident.....no one apparently knows the ID of the three. Teenagers on the run? Maybe, just a bit odd.
Failure to read that stupid sign business at the front-gate? Well....maybe if they'd read the sign and realized that Airman Jimmy wouldn't hesitate to hit the button, or shoot-out the car, all three would be alive today.
As the months and years went by, you got use to the gate procedure, and eventually one day....I stood close enough to the stupid signs to read them. You actually need to be within eight feet to read the small font. It basically says there's significant security on this military reservation, and either 'force' or 'deadly force' is then uttered.
It's hard to say if there's any difference between 'force' and 'deadly force'. Either way, Airman Cindy has a pistol.
After 9-11, all that 'deadly force' stuff ramped-up and the guards all started to hold M-16s and if you did something really stupid....you were going to be shot dead. Along the way, they installed the flip-barriers, which take around two seconds to come up enough to stop all vehicles.
So this 'accident' at Warner-Robins AFB, Georgia on Friday evening interests me. Some car speeds through.....never showing an ID, and the SP guard hits the button for the barrier to pop-up. With the high speed of the car, and impact....two guys are immediately dead and the third will die at the hospital. Oddly, all three lacked an ID, and two days after the accident.....no one apparently knows the ID of the three. Teenagers on the run? Maybe, just a bit odd.
Failure to read that stupid sign business at the front-gate? Well....maybe if they'd read the sign and realized that Airman Jimmy wouldn't hesitate to hit the button, or shoot-out the car, all three would be alive today.
Sunday, 6 October 2019
The 'Joker' Worry
This week, there's been a lot of hype over people worrying about the new movie 'Joker' and the violent content related to the storyline.
Lets be honest here....the Joker is a fictionalized character, who has been around for more than sixty years. It's just that someone finally asked the question....how did the mortal human eventually turn into the Joker.
You could see over the past three years, this twist and turn with the Gotham series, and how Jerome Valeski transformed himself....week by week....into crazy nut-case with an agenda to 'fix' society. Except the movie version has gone to the ninth degree, and this Joker is crazy serious about resolving the woes of society.
Worrying about fictional character hype?
Should this crowd have said something when Breaking Bad came out and you were introduced to Walter White and Gus Fring? Most of us came to respect both guys.
What about Hannibal Lecter?
What about Saruman the White from Lord of the Rings?
What about Lord Voldemont from the Harry Potter series?
What about that Annie Wilkes nutcase gal from Misery?
There are a thousand bad-guy fictional characters out there. Some of them are just plain nut-crazy....like that Alex character from Fatal Attraction, the psycho nutcase who probably has damaged over 10,000 American guys after they watched the movie and got permanent damage from it. Those guys will never marry or have a true relationship.
So I don't see what the heck these idiots are warped-up about. Fake worry? More or less. Like fake news.
Lets be honest here....the Joker is a fictionalized character, who has been around for more than sixty years. It's just that someone finally asked the question....how did the mortal human eventually turn into the Joker.
You could see over the past three years, this twist and turn with the Gotham series, and how Jerome Valeski transformed himself....week by week....into crazy nut-case with an agenda to 'fix' society. Except the movie version has gone to the ninth degree, and this Joker is crazy serious about resolving the woes of society.
Worrying about fictional character hype?
Should this crowd have said something when Breaking Bad came out and you were introduced to Walter White and Gus Fring? Most of us came to respect both guys.
What about Hannibal Lecter?
What about Saruman the White from Lord of the Rings?
What about Lord Voldemont from the Harry Potter series?
What about that Annie Wilkes nutcase gal from Misery?
There are a thousand bad-guy fictional characters out there. Some of them are just plain nut-crazy....like that Alex character from Fatal Attraction, the psycho nutcase who probably has damaged over 10,000 American guys after they watched the movie and got permanent damage from it. Those guys will never marry or have a true relationship.
So I don't see what the heck these idiots are warped-up about. Fake worry? More or less. Like fake news.
"Romney Never Knew How to Win"
Trump made the Twitter comment today, and I sat and reflected upon it.
The 2012 election cycle was one of the more comical episodes in Republican history.
You basically had Mitt Romney (who marginally had public appeal), Ron Paul (for the oddball Republicans), Buddy Roemer (for southern Republicans), Jon Huntsman (for the intellectual Republicans), Rick Santorum (for the church-going Republicans), Rick Perry (for Texas Republicans), Herman Cain (for the Republicans just wanting a wild card in the election, and Michele Bachmann (for northern crowd who just want something really crazy to happen).
I think most Republicans out of the south just laughed over the convention win by Romney, and marginally felt compelled to vote for the guy. He was for all purposes, the convenient 'loser'.
Could Mitt have won? He would have had to go aggressive and really say a lot of criticism over President Obama. It wasn't going to happen. Trump? He didn't hesitate President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and just about anyone who dumped on him (include some Republicans). He pushes back....something that you haven't seen a Republican do in fifty years.
'Nice guy' status for Romney? Well....that's the odd thing. He was always cut-throat on buying cheap companies and cutting them up to resell later, with no heart for the employees. But he couldn't bring that same cut-throat attitude to the political scene.
On this, Trump is right.
The 2012 election cycle was one of the more comical episodes in Republican history.
You basically had Mitt Romney (who marginally had public appeal), Ron Paul (for the oddball Republicans), Buddy Roemer (for southern Republicans), Jon Huntsman (for the intellectual Republicans), Rick Santorum (for the church-going Republicans), Rick Perry (for Texas Republicans), Herman Cain (for the Republicans just wanting a wild card in the election, and Michele Bachmann (for northern crowd who just want something really crazy to happen).
I think most Republicans out of the south just laughed over the convention win by Romney, and marginally felt compelled to vote for the guy. He was for all purposes, the convenient 'loser'.
Could Mitt have won? He would have had to go aggressive and really say a lot of criticism over President Obama. It wasn't going to happen. Trump? He didn't hesitate President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and just about anyone who dumped on him (include some Republicans). He pushes back....something that you haven't seen a Republican do in fifty years.
'Nice guy' status for Romney? Well....that's the odd thing. He was always cut-throat on buying cheap companies and cutting them up to resell later, with no heart for the employees. But he couldn't bring that same cut-throat attitude to the political scene.
On this, Trump is right.
Crimes, Misdemeanors, or Bad Moral Judgement?
As all this Ukraine business unfolds, it's worth standing back to admire what happened, and if anyone really committed a crime.
Is Hunter Biden guilty of any real crime? If he walked in and told Dad (then the VP and chief of handling Ukraine special projects) about his company being formed and getting an inside to the Ukraine natural gas industry? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden's team was successful and part of the reason that the Ukraine folks had a $1.8-billion 'gift' from the US to do exploratory drilling? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden got a seat on the board of this company, while being unqualified for the role? That's not a crime. I admit....it is stupid on business practices.
If Hunter Biden was paid $50k a month to be on the board? That's not a crime.
As long as Hunter Biden paid US taxes on that and any substance-allowance while in the Ukraine....that was not a crime.
If none of the money was really used for gas exploration? That's not a crime, unless the Ukraine itself wants to say something about the lack of progress.
If Hunter Biden did 'wash' any funding before transferring it back into the US? That might be a crime.
For Joe Biden to arrange the $1.8-billion and his son got awarded the board job as part of this? Unless there's an email to say he knew the son would get the job if they paid the money, that's not a crime.....but it very poor moral behavior on Joe's part.
If the Ukraine Attorney General tried to look at the company, Hunter's role in it, and got fired because of Joe Biden's pressure? That's not a crime, but it's serious poor judgement and bad moral bearing.
If Nancy Pelosi's son had a business, and he got into the Ukraine natural gas business....that's not a crime. If Nancy helped in some fashion to get him that role? That's not a crime, but it's bad judgement.
So here's the thing....if this all get dragged into some impeachment process....unless these 'kids' did something stupid and conducted money-laundering or never reported their income correctly.....they will all skate free. For the parents? It's poor judgement, but I doubt if anyone can be called into court.
Onto the $10-million given to Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation. The money actually came from a Ukrainian Oligarch. Anything illegal about this money? No. It does suggest some funny connection and beg questions, but the guy was free to donate to the Foundation.
The final question left....was it a crime to ask the Ukrainian government to investigate how this all occurred? There is no law that says you can only talk/discuss x-matters between a President and some other international figure. If Trump wanted to call and discuss his favorite Lego 'gift', the shape of women's boobs, or the Mexican Wall with the Pope....he's free to do so. Bad moral judgement? Maybe, but then you'd open up a can of worms on a dozen things that President Obama did, with bad judgement as well.
Is Hunter Biden guilty of any real crime? If he walked in and told Dad (then the VP and chief of handling Ukraine special projects) about his company being formed and getting an inside to the Ukraine natural gas industry? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden's team was successful and part of the reason that the Ukraine folks had a $1.8-billion 'gift' from the US to do exploratory drilling? That's not a crime.
If Hunter Biden got a seat on the board of this company, while being unqualified for the role? That's not a crime. I admit....it is stupid on business practices.
If Hunter Biden was paid $50k a month to be on the board? That's not a crime.
As long as Hunter Biden paid US taxes on that and any substance-allowance while in the Ukraine....that was not a crime.
If none of the money was really used for gas exploration? That's not a crime, unless the Ukraine itself wants to say something about the lack of progress.
If Hunter Biden did 'wash' any funding before transferring it back into the US? That might be a crime.
For Joe Biden to arrange the $1.8-billion and his son got awarded the board job as part of this? Unless there's an email to say he knew the son would get the job if they paid the money, that's not a crime.....but it very poor moral behavior on Joe's part.
If the Ukraine Attorney General tried to look at the company, Hunter's role in it, and got fired because of Joe Biden's pressure? That's not a crime, but it's serious poor judgement and bad moral bearing.
If Nancy Pelosi's son had a business, and he got into the Ukraine natural gas business....that's not a crime. If Nancy helped in some fashion to get him that role? That's not a crime, but it's bad judgement.
So here's the thing....if this all get dragged into some impeachment process....unless these 'kids' did something stupid and conducted money-laundering or never reported their income correctly.....they will all skate free. For the parents? It's poor judgement, but I doubt if anyone can be called into court.
Onto the $10-million given to Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation. The money actually came from a Ukrainian Oligarch. Anything illegal about this money? No. It does suggest some funny connection and beg questions, but the guy was free to donate to the Foundation.
The final question left....was it a crime to ask the Ukrainian government to investigate how this all occurred? There is no law that says you can only talk/discuss x-matters between a President and some other international figure. If Trump wanted to call and discuss his favorite Lego 'gift', the shape of women's boobs, or the Mexican Wall with the Pope....he's free to do so. Bad moral judgement? Maybe, but then you'd open up a can of worms on a dozen things that President Obama did, with bad judgement as well.
Friday, 4 October 2019
Bernie, Health, and the Question Over Replacement
First, Bernie isn't in dire health condition. Bernie has a blockage, and had two stents 'installed'.
Doctors will say that stents are a simple procedure now, and you might walk out of the hospital on the same day of the procedure. Generally, most people then get this lecture by a doctor that they are either eating in a way that is not healthy, smoking, drinking too much, or living a lifestyle with too much stress. It doesn't mean the lecture is BS or worthless....it's just how doctors treat this.
The fact that Bernie is 78 years old? Well....here's the harsh reality. Bernie doesn't smoke, and I would assume that he's mostly a coffee or soda guy. So the suggestion here is that this presidential election stuff is triggering stress that he really doesn't need.
Him retire? Zero chance of that.
The stents simply telling you of a future problem with more chest pains? Maybe.
If he were to have a heart attack and resign or be unable to act as a Senator? The Governor does not have the authority to appoint someone. He has the authority to call an election....within 90 days of the seat being empty. The current Governor? A Republican.
The odds of this scenario playing out? In a normal political year, I'd say less than 10-percent chance. However, the last twelve months have been weird in the US, and it wouldn't shock me if suddenly you had Senator with a heart attack, and some race on to replace the guy.
Doctors will say that stents are a simple procedure now, and you might walk out of the hospital on the same day of the procedure. Generally, most people then get this lecture by a doctor that they are either eating in a way that is not healthy, smoking, drinking too much, or living a lifestyle with too much stress. It doesn't mean the lecture is BS or worthless....it's just how doctors treat this.
The fact that Bernie is 78 years old? Well....here's the harsh reality. Bernie doesn't smoke, and I would assume that he's mostly a coffee or soda guy. So the suggestion here is that this presidential election stuff is triggering stress that he really doesn't need.
Him retire? Zero chance of that.
The stents simply telling you of a future problem with more chest pains? Maybe.
If he were to have a heart attack and resign or be unable to act as a Senator? The Governor does not have the authority to appoint someone. He has the authority to call an election....within 90 days of the seat being empty. The current Governor? A Republican.
The odds of this scenario playing out? In a normal political year, I'd say less than 10-percent chance. However, the last twelve months have been weird in the US, and it wouldn't shock me if suddenly you had Senator with a heart attack, and some race on to replace the guy.
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