How 'Fractured' Were We in the 1750/1760 Era?

 This is a topic that is rarely if ever covered in college classes, or via journalists/historians today.  So I'll offer a short introduction to a topic which we ought to be thinking over.

When you look at 13 colony 'states' in this 1750/1760 era....you have to remember that they were 13 different societies that were grouped only by the idea that they'd left Europe, and brought a particular way of thinking along with them.  They were NOT united in any sense.

It would be accurate to say that the thirteen each had a 'company' behind them in the original period, and the company specialized in particular clients.

For example, Maryland was found in 1634 by Lord Baltimore (Cecil Calvert), and his agenda was to find able-bodied and adventurous Catholics....then getting to the region of Maryland.  It would be accurate to say that Catholics had a particular view of the world, of ethics, of society existing in harmony, and some appreciation of arts/education.

Delaware?  It was founded by Peter Minuit (well to do Belgium guy).  He founded the colony with his company (New Sweden) in 1638.  Minuit is noted for arranging a deal to buy the region of Manhattan from the Indians in the region.  For this region of Delaware....the start-up were mostly Swedes.  They weren't aristocratic or intellectual types....they were simply farmers.

Georgia?  It was founded by James Edward Oglethorpe (a Brit), in 1732 (yeah, it comes along a hundred years after Maryland).  The crowd that is brought in?  Mostly from Brit debt-prison situations and notably....the poor of society.  They weren't intellectuals, gifted in science or religion, etc.  They were geared for the rough life, from day one.

It should be noted in the Georgia charter granted by the King....slavery was forbidden.  This stayed this way from 1732 to 1751 (19 years).  The original intent (whether understood by everyone or not), was that this was a small-farm operations state, and would stay that way.  It was also geared to be a front-line zone (against Spanish-held Florida) and if wars were fought....the farmers would be drafted into service.

You can toss in the German regions of Pennsylvania and the Dutch regions of NY state.  

This was not a happy group of like-minded people.  

When you get to the early 1800s....there is essentially one major division.  The Democratic Party has mastered itself in the south (Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina, and Maryland).  The rest are leaning more toward a conservative lifestyle (blame it on the religious groups, the Dutch, or the Germans).  

The Constitution that is written?  It is a patchwork of art, that marginally is agreeable among the 13 groups of people. 

As folks maneuver and head west....the two groups are finding it more difficult to live together in harmony.  Individuals from the NE arrive into areas like Indiana and Ohio...wanting taxes collected, and some basic services provided.  Individuals coming from Georgia and the Carolinas tend to want little if any taxation, and the less regulation/law....the better off you were.

From 1800 to 1860....this idea of a unified nation is marginally working.  Fights break out daily in DC between Republicans and Democrats.  Newspapers are hyping people up....talking about about the non-intellectual issues of the southerners, or the conservative lifestyles/rule-making of the northerners.   One wants structure....the other wants marginal control.

We will leave the 1865 period, as a truly fractured nation....that is forced to exist in one single sphere.

As much as people want to dwell or suggest the Civil War was about slavery....it had thousands of other issues, and the idea in the end was to just keep forcing the public to live within one unified nation.

Here in the past hundred years?  The 'fracture' simply continues.  Amusingly enough....around half of the nation has developed into a New England-style Republican structure....wanting less government, less taxation, and less regulation.  This 'creature' is not adored by urbanized areas, and it's more openly preferred in rural regions or lesser populated places.

The other half of the nation is bent on a Democratic model (totally unlike the 1820s situation) which believes in structure, regulation, respect of lifestyles, significant taxation (to pay for significant 'gifts'), and geared more toward urbanization.  

Flip-flop?  Absolutely, over a hundred years....it's exactly opposite of what you'd expect.

Stuck in the middle of this mess?  Blacks, Latinos, businessmen, people heavily in debt, a segment of society that is strongly supporting open-drug use, a segment of society that is strongly opposing open-drug use, and bankers/speculators.

The fact that the NASDAQ company, Tesla, Oracle, and Tesla moving to Texas?  If you'd suggested this twenty years ago....people would have laughed.

People leaving NY City over the past eight months?  There's a belief that it's almost a million, and there might be another million to exit in 2021.

Some are looking at the 'fracture' in a way....that they don't need to accept things as they are, and the safety 'light' has flipped in red (not a positive thing).  In the case of San Francisco?  Between the homeless situation, local taxes, and lack of safety....the fractured crowd don't see any options other than leaving.

So the question is....are we truly fractured enough now....to say that the nation cannot exist as one?  

Behind that question....the other question comes back....was the Civil War only about slavery, and did we fight a war over a serious division which remained after 1865, and continues on to this moment now?

It's something to ponder about.

We were created as a divided nation, and remain a divided nation even to this day.  It was a lot more simple in maintaining this divided 'theatrical production'.....with one-hundred million people.  But to suggest that we can still operate a unified 'theatrical production' with three-hundred million?  Toss in the fact that we now have more than a thousand pages of script which openly divide us daily, and we can't seem to be agreeable?  

Go back and read over the history of Yugoslavia, and how it could not be saved as one single nation.  

This fracture....isn't about to be resolved....not today, nor tomorrow.  

Two Science Stories

 Over the past week, I've been entertained by a fair amount of reading regarding science.

First topic, Covid-19 and it's aerosol connection.

When I joined the Air Force in 1977....there was this training segment that continued for roughly fifteen years over chemical warfare.  

We were continually trained on the idea that when 'war' finally came, there would be chemical warfare as part of the situation.  So we trained with the masks, the standard operating procedures, and the suits.

We were always told....don't worry, we've got tons of the suits, the autoinjector kits, and the special filters.  

All of this chatter and training continued until we got to Desert Storm.  Then oddly, it disappeared.  We were issued a suit but told in the strongest sense....NOT to unpack the suit from the sealed bag.  The filter?  That was given.  

Now they started to talk about aerosol, chem warfare, and the lesser threat.  In this scenario, even if a missile with chemical agent hit within a mile....the warm atmosphere of Saudi Arabia would dissipate the agent in a matter of an hour. Fact or fiction?  Well, you had to take as gospel truth.

Eventually, one day (toward the end of the war) I had this chat with a guy in the camp.  Our sense was that warm/hot climates would be the perfect place to have a chem agent because it could not reach full value.  A cold or cool place was not a friendly place (like upstate Michigan or the UK).  

As the weeks roll by with Covid-19, it's obvious now that the same scenario runs along this path.  The warmer weather in Australia and NZ right now?  It's helping to reduce the infection rate.  Eventually toward April/May....unless the vaccination deal delivers full effect....a higher rate of infection/death....will occur in that region. Here in Germany, with the cooler air....the virus will stay in the air longer.  As May arrives....it'll lessen.

There's not a lot of science to this....it's just the way that a virus liking pro-aerosol situations works.  

The second topic?  A science story came out over mass extinctions on Earth....every 27-million years.  What is said here....a meteor-friendly period arrives, and repeats itself....over and over.  

Between impacts and volcanic eruptions (triggered by the impacts)....animals die off.

The most recent wipe-out?  Roughly seven million years ago....meaning we have around 20 million years to figure the 'game' out, and remove people from Earth.

But this whole discussion begs the question....are most all species of animals we see around us today....developed since seven million years ago?  

Staying around Earth for the next 20-million years?  Why would you?  It would seem that the driving priority is to leave the planet, explore the universe, and unpopulate the planet as the process of destruction repeats once again.

Forgiving Student Debt/Stupidity

 I could make this a 200-page book, but I'll try to limit this discussion to 50 lines.

Up until the 1980s....if you went to college....it was typically 'cheap-enough' (a catch phrase)...that you could pay via the parent's marginal contribution, do some work on the side, and not borrow from anyone.  

Something clicked in the 1980s, and escalation of college tuition/room and board....went up.  Dad's contribution and work on the side didn't cut it at half of the colleges in the US.  Add onto it....kids got stupid and didn't realize that being 'out-of-state'....meant that you paid 20-percent on top of what the in-state kid was paying.

So kids started to borrow via commercial and government groups.  In the beginning....over a four-year period, you could be talking about $20k.  Most could pay this back over a five to eight year period.

Year by year....colleges escalated the cost.  You can ask financial experts, state political folks, and journalists to explain this part of the story.  Usually, they can't really lay this down in any simple fashion.

As the 1990s came....degrees and study areas went into some type of tailspin.  People were designing a four-year program where the degree you exited with....wasn't going to ever pay you more than $25k a year (1990s scale).  

In the past ten years, it's now possible for you to attend the William and Mary University in Virginia....and pay near $23k on tuition alone.  Add in books, expenses and room/board....it's up over $140k for four years.

If you graduate with a marginalized degree, and your starting pay level is $35k?  You won't finish paying off the loan until age 60.

So enter the Biden crew.  They want to create some path where part of the debt is forgiven.  No one say how much, if it might be yearly, or the total cost package for the tax-payer.

Massive anger brewing in the non-college idiot group....that they'd pay for this debt deal?  Yes, and it'll be openly discussed next spring as people fuss how you could be this stupid to borrow $100k and your salary will never be enough to resolve your mess.

What I suspect will happen?  I think the Senators will rig up a deal that for each thousand you put down....another thousand will be forgiven (maybe up to $4k a year).  Someone might add wording to say it's a ten-year deal....meaning $40k might be free.

A lawsuit to brew out of this?  No doubt....it'll be taken to the court as a unfair situation for non-college folks.

Just free money?  It'll take an hour for people to figure out....why not go over to the government idiots, and borrow $60k to pretend you are going to college.  Then just invest it, and do the payment deal....paying back the money over ten years....getting $40k free of charge from the government.  

Illegal?  It'll take five years for them to figure out this game.  

So my advice...once the smoke clears and they establish the 'free money' routine...analyze your path and see if it'd make sense to go ask for $40k in student loans (for investment purposes, purchase of a RV/boat, etc).  If they are going to rig this for $4k a year in free credit (maybe even via your taxes)....the 'fake' loan would easily pay you back over a ten-year period.

We could all take some 'free money' and give thanks to the stupid college kids for creating this new avenue of 'free cash'.  

President Biden: Saviour or Demon for Cal/NY?

 First, the facts.  NY City needs roughly $93 billion (just for everything leading up to the end of 2020).  You can figure that another $15 million will lay on top of that by the end of February.  The state of California has $280 to $300 billion in debt.  L A (by itself....needs $7-to-8 billion)?

The generally discussed topic is that President Biden will walk in and structure some type of credit payment for 2021/2022.  No one says the amount.  It might be structured as a zero-interest loan and maybe a couple billion in 'gift-money'.  

In the case of NY City....that won't cut it.  They probably need the US federal government to walk in and lay down $20-odd billion as 'gift-money'.  

So the working piece of this deal....is the Senate.  If the Republicans retain control (winning both Georgia seats)....then this 'gift-idea' won't go far.  To be honest, just getting $20-billion in interest-free loans....won't cut it either.

The way for the Senate to 'gift' the money without it being noticed?  Well....you'd go and say 'bad-boy', then laundry $10-billion over to three California cities (each) for road/bridge projects, on top of what they'd flip thirty-billion over to the banks to pay debt....to use the fed-money for the projects. 

In the past, you could have done this, without anyone grasping how you funneled the money over.  Today?  People tend to ask questions. 

So if Biden doesn't deliver?  By the end of 2021....something probably needs to happen, or you start to notice banks getting worried because neither NY City or California can sustain the new debt payments.  Both likely to add another 50-percent of debt on top of the present situation?  That's what I would fear the most.  But to be honest....where would you start to cut, and can you sustain mega-cities/states in this condition?  

Biden and Harris being 'deal-makers' while they were in the Senate?  No, not exactly.  That's another part of the story.  If you were looking around for expertise within the Democratic Party and the Senate today....looking for people who were experts at rigging unpleasant deals to have a decent outcome....no one really stands out.  

The Better-Off-Worse-Off Chat

 This week, the idiots over at Fox News put up some poll to say that Trump's job accomplishment is not worth bragging about.  55-percent of the crowd said the US is worse off now than four years ago.  Roughly one out of three said it was better than four years....with the remainder saying things were about the same.

I paused over this.  Frankly, most anything that comes out of Fox is to be speculated upon and probably questionable in terms of factual data.  Polls? Utterly worthless.

But then I started to think....there are literally thousands of people in West Virginia who would readily tell you that life was better in 1966....than it is today.   Between corruption, drug use, and personal debt....they'd tell you the life of the 1960s and things were just simply better.

Then I come to this human condition that we rarely discuss....a lot of us aren't sitting around and trying to measure some kind of crap like this.  We get up at 5:30 AM.....working our way through breakfast, the plan for the day, and prioritizing things. 

We might have a donut and coffee around 10, and a salad at noon.  We bust our butt and listen to crap from marginally educated people who seem to supervise us, but only in the fake sense.  

We go home.....cut the grass, repair the garage door, buy groceries, listen to the spouse whine about their job, repair the kid's bike for the 40th time, and catch the 6 PM local news where they talk about wild dogs attacking people or some funky smell from the river.

We aren't exactly measuring things to say this year was better or worse than last year.  

When the dimwit calls us up at 7 PM....claiming to be such-and-such journalist or poll-guru...we aren't that impressed.  When the better or worse scenario is put in front of us....we aren't exactly using maximum brain cells, and that whisky-sour cocktail is kicking in.  To be honest, I might even admit I doubled-up on the whiskey today.  

Maybe if the guy had asked more questions....he would have found out that our dog died this year....that the transmission of the 2-year old car failed this year....that I've made 30-percent less pay this year due to Covid-work restrictions....or that since moving to Georgia four years ago....I've killed six snakes within the house.  There might be some actual reason why things are bad, but you just don't care about people, issues, or the past four years.

So frankly, the poll is meaningless to me. In fact, I kinda wonder why Fox hasn't asked me how I feel about them.  It wouldn't be a pleasant review that I'd give them. 

Will Hunter Biden Get Prosecuted?

 First, you'd have to define what crime was violated.  The only potential issues I see are money-laundering or tax troubles.  The cocaine use?  Not an issue.  You can't suggest any crime syndicate issues, or theft of any type.  Siphoning off cash from some bank or industry?  Nope.  

If he was connected to the money-laundering.....did he do it himself, or did he have low-level people do it?  If the money-laundering had nothing to do with cash flowing into the US, or out of the US.....there's not much to charge.

If he did stupid tax filings?   Normally....IRS would bring you in....give you a chance to correct the matter....file the right forms...pay some hefty fine, and 99-percent of the time avoid jail.  

In fact, the worst of this is that he has five million in secret money....that he didn't admit to the recent baby-situation that he had, and agreed to pay monthly payments for the kid.  That would drag him back into court, and ease the payments up a notch.

So the wildest fantasy here is that he did major money-laundering....way over $500 million, and a trail leads back to 'dad'.  In this case, he'd do a couple years of prison, and 'dad' would have to resign (if connected).  

Can anyone be this stupid, and lay a path easily detected?  Normally....not.  But if you were on cocaine binges....you could do a lot of stupid crap.  Maybe this is mostly what the story is about....a guy doped-up on cocaine so much....that he hasn't really grasped what he's doing or where this is going.  It's possible that if you asked him about events in 2013.....he doesn't remember a single thing.  

24 December: National Holiday?

 Yesterday, President Trump signed an executive order that the 24th is a day off for fed workers.  

Having been in the military and GS world in my life....generally, the 24th is this oddball day.  More or less....nothing is happening.  

In 1978, at my first base....we kinda sat around the shop...drank coffee....eating cookies, and then around 11 AM, the boss said to go to chow, and don't return.

This process mostly repeated at every single base.  

At some point in the late 1980s, a new 'deal' came....half the shop would have the week prior to Christmas 'off' (meaning you couldn't travel beyond the local area but you could shop or just sit around the house).  The other half of the shop got the week after Christmas.  

As a governmental employee at the Pentagon?  Most folks took the day off (official leave).

I brought this topic up with a retired guy a few years ago....who worked for years around the hardware business.  He noted that the 24th was the most useless day of work in his profession....with absolutely no one showing up to buy anything on the 24th.  

Trump's deal?  It's just for 2020.  

Odds of repeating?  Maybe.  But it begs questions....shouldn't the 31st of December be treated the same way?