In the last three months....looking over this migrant 'trek' up through Mexico and leading to the US border, there are a lot of problems and poor-detailed news stories laid out over the event.
So I look today at the second kid who has apparently died from heat exhaustion from this trek (while in US possession).
Most people aren't aware of it, but in Arizona (one of those places where I lived for three years)....there's roughly 110 people (on average) that dies from heat exhaustion, heat stroke, or dehydration. No one goes down into details but I would take a guess that the bulk are people who didn't grow up in the state, and moved down into the region.
Folks getting all hyped up and angry because 110 people die each year in Arizona? No. No one seems to get angry.
TV folks will often comment about the necessity of carrying water on you, and avoiding the sun in the mid-day.
In 2017, an all-time record occurred, with 155 heat deaths reported in the state.
Most Americans will admit they've never been to Arizona and can't really imagine a typical July day where the heat might reach 110-degrees.
From my period in Arizona, I came to four observations by the end:
1. Concrete and asphalt radiate heat, so if you were walking or jogging in the mid-day period in Tucson (in July)....it's probably closer to 115 degrees radiating around you.
2. Just staying out of the direct sun makes a ton of difference.
3. Never drink beer or wine as your dehydration choices.
4. Just walking around for two hours in direct sunlight at noon, with a 110-degree temperature....is enough to get you going toward dehydration and heat stroke.
So dragging a six-year old kid along on some 1,000 mile trek to cross the US border? All you are doing is throwing a set of dice on a gamble that he might survive or he might die. To walk only at night? It might be a better choice but then you have to gamble on stepping on a rattlesnake. So none of this makes much sense.
Friday, 28 December 2018
The Half-Way Point on Gov't Closure
Until the Democrats sit down (likely to be at least late February), and talk over the 'mess'.....nothing is going to happen. I don't think President Trump will have an issue in going 100-plus days. The folks affected? There's probably 2,000 government employees in the DC area who are seriously in trouble by mid-January, and another forty-thousand who cannot survive 60-plus days without a pay-check.
So I'm going to suggest the mid-point resolution likely to come from Nancy Pelosi or her replacement (yes, it's possible that Nancy gets fired by the Democrats by day 60 of this shutdown).
Basically, the Democrats will agree to fund one-billion dollars for the Wall in 2019, and sign up to a 2020 budget 'promise' of 1.5 billion to be funded. The President, I think....will earmark the money to only go toward Texas and Arizona Wall construction....leaving New Mexico and California without the Wall, and making part of the 2020 election to wrap up the last of this project (figured to be 2021 to 2023).
The odds of a 100-day shutdown? Actually, it's probably better than a 50-50 bet. But this will give Amazon a chance to hold a job-fair and go to recruit these desperate DC folks. That Arlington Amazon operation will require near 25,000 folks and I just don't see some massive number of new folks moving in and taking these jobs. I think the bulk will come out of this shutdown situation.
So I'm going to suggest the mid-point resolution likely to come from Nancy Pelosi or her replacement (yes, it's possible that Nancy gets fired by the Democrats by day 60 of this shutdown).
Basically, the Democrats will agree to fund one-billion dollars for the Wall in 2019, and sign up to a 2020 budget 'promise' of 1.5 billion to be funded. The President, I think....will earmark the money to only go toward Texas and Arizona Wall construction....leaving New Mexico and California without the Wall, and making part of the 2020 election to wrap up the last of this project (figured to be 2021 to 2023).
The odds of a 100-day shutdown? Actually, it's probably better than a 50-50 bet. But this will give Amazon a chance to hold a job-fair and go to recruit these desperate DC folks. That Arlington Amazon operation will require near 25,000 folks and I just don't see some massive number of new folks moving in and taking these jobs. I think the bulk will come out of this shutdown situation.
Monday, 24 December 2018
Living Elsewhere Story
There's a study that was done, which basically says that half of all Americans would be interested in moving overseas (meaning another country). There was one shocker attached to this study.....this wasn't really attached to a political motive, it's just that people had this interest in going elsewhere.
The thing is.....this is just a thought process that people have. They go off on some trip to Ireland or the Philippines....then they get some thought that it'd be great to just go permanently there. It's like some guy taking the wife to the isle of Aruba for a week, and they both get this funny idea that it'd be terrific to live on some island. Military folks go off on career 'tours' and get all enchanted about Italy, Turkey or Iceland....then for years, they daydream about moving elsewhere.
I once spent seventy-two hours in Ireland. I returned and for years had this vision of living in Ireland. I can say after two weeks of driving around New Zealand in 2017, I felt that 'thrill' over the idea of staying there. The two weeks I spent on Crete in the 1990s? That went in the same direction.
But after reading this article on the study....I came back to this one phrase...."would be interested". It doesn't mean they will move....just that they fantasize about this idea and discuss it occasionally at the water-cooler with other co-workers or neighbors. I worked with a guy who spent four years living in Japan. He could sit and spend hours chatting over Japan and all the 'wonders' (which included Sake, and Highballs (Japanese soda mixed with whiskey). He was overly enchanted with Japan....to the extent that he'd probably even be willing to live under bridges there as a welfare case, if he had the chance.
Here's the thing....you can ask a hundred people around age 25 about this 'movement' idea to another country, and fifty-percent might suggest they'd like to up and move beyond the US border. So you go and look for the guy or gal forty years later, and 99-percent are still living within the US. Oh, they might have moved from Texas to Idaho, or from Florida to Michigan....some might have three to five times. But there's just not that many folks that moved beyond the border. So what this study really touched on....was the fantasy involved.
Back in 1982, I sat one evening and watched the movie 'Summer Lovers'. It's a marginal two-star movie about some American young couple who goes off to Greece and ends up in some threesome deal with another woman. I barely remembered any of the script....but the whole landscape of Greece was spilled out out on a large screen, and for years....I had this vision of leaving all things behind and moving to Greece.
People are just that way....most everyone has that fantasy place they'd like to live.
The thing is.....this is just a thought process that people have. They go off on some trip to Ireland or the Philippines....then they get some thought that it'd be great to just go permanently there. It's like some guy taking the wife to the isle of Aruba for a week, and they both get this funny idea that it'd be terrific to live on some island. Military folks go off on career 'tours' and get all enchanted about Italy, Turkey or Iceland....then for years, they daydream about moving elsewhere.
I once spent seventy-two hours in Ireland. I returned and for years had this vision of living in Ireland. I can say after two weeks of driving around New Zealand in 2017, I felt that 'thrill' over the idea of staying there. The two weeks I spent on Crete in the 1990s? That went in the same direction.
But after reading this article on the study....I came back to this one phrase...."would be interested". It doesn't mean they will move....just that they fantasize about this idea and discuss it occasionally at the water-cooler with other co-workers or neighbors. I worked with a guy who spent four years living in Japan. He could sit and spend hours chatting over Japan and all the 'wonders' (which included Sake, and Highballs (Japanese soda mixed with whiskey). He was overly enchanted with Japan....to the extent that he'd probably even be willing to live under bridges there as a welfare case, if he had the chance.
Here's the thing....you can ask a hundred people around age 25 about this 'movement' idea to another country, and fifty-percent might suggest they'd like to up and move beyond the US border. So you go and look for the guy or gal forty years later, and 99-percent are still living within the US. Oh, they might have moved from Texas to Idaho, or from Florida to Michigan....some might have three to five times. But there's just not that many folks that moved beyond the border. So what this study really touched on....was the fantasy involved.
Back in 1982, I sat one evening and watched the movie 'Summer Lovers'. It's a marginal two-star movie about some American young couple who goes off to Greece and ends up in some threesome deal with another woman. I barely remembered any of the script....but the whole landscape of Greece was spilled out out on a large screen, and for years....I had this vision of leaving all things behind and moving to Greece.
People are just that way....most everyone has that fantasy place they'd like to live.
Shutdown 2019?
What I see happening:
1. The Senate right now doesn't have the votes to pass the budget.
2. We will arrive at early January with a new House and no budget.
3. Around 23 January (four weeks of shutdown), Pelosi will go on a massive blame-discussion....finding that nothing has changed with the President.
4. Around early Feb, Amazon will have a job-fair in Arlington....finding 50,000 government employees interested in quitting their gov't job and joining Amazon. At least ten-thousand will be offered a salary within 10-percent of their government salary, and depart for Amazon in Arlington. Another 2,000 government employees will be picked up for the NY City Amazon operation.
5. By late Feb, near day sixty, Democrats will be in chaos and wanting Pelosi replaced. Her House Speaker job will end by 2nd week of March. A deal will be made for half the five billion to be funded in 2019, and half in 2020.
6. The twelve-thousand government folks who departed for Amazon? Their positions for the most part won't be filled.
7. Less than 300 miles of the Trump-Wall will be built in 2019.
1. The Senate right now doesn't have the votes to pass the budget.
2. We will arrive at early January with a new House and no budget.
3. Around 23 January (four weeks of shutdown), Pelosi will go on a massive blame-discussion....finding that nothing has changed with the President.
4. Around early Feb, Amazon will have a job-fair in Arlington....finding 50,000 government employees interested in quitting their gov't job and joining Amazon. At least ten-thousand will be offered a salary within 10-percent of their government salary, and depart for Amazon in Arlington. Another 2,000 government employees will be picked up for the NY City Amazon operation.
5. By late Feb, near day sixty, Democrats will be in chaos and wanting Pelosi replaced. Her House Speaker job will end by 2nd week of March. A deal will be made for half the five billion to be funded in 2019, and half in 2020.
6. The twelve-thousand government folks who departed for Amazon? Their positions for the most part won't be filled.
7. Less than 300 miles of the Trump-Wall will be built in 2019.
Sunday, 23 December 2018
The Elitist-Intellectual-PC Crowd
I sat and watched an interview this week.....a guy who'd decided that the San Francisco 'Valley' area had become too much for him, and he packed up the family and left.
His chief complaint? He got to a point where people around him seemed to be elitist. They had the 'magic' phrases, the agendas to discuss, the hyped-save-the-world attitude on turbo, and the need to sell you on their politics.
So the interview turned and discussed where he went and how things fell into place there. Basically, the guy opened up and said whatever you believed in or were interested about.....was 'cool' to the new associates (non-Californians). These were people with regular lives, and zero interest in special political agendas.
The intellectual crowd were bound and determined to be 'right', and if you weren't going in their direction....then you were anti-intellectual (plain definition: stupid).
If you had suggested thirty years ago that San Francisco would develop into a community like this, most people would have laughed at you. Yet, all of the little conditions fell into place, and it's become an odd 'pit' for those who attempt to survive there.
In some way, it's become a tribal-land where the tribe is enforcing it's perception upon anyone who attempts to reside or function there. You have to wonder where this is going to end up in twenty years.
His chief complaint? He got to a point where people around him seemed to be elitist. They had the 'magic' phrases, the agendas to discuss, the hyped-save-the-world attitude on turbo, and the need to sell you on their politics.
So the interview turned and discussed where he went and how things fell into place there. Basically, the guy opened up and said whatever you believed in or were interested about.....was 'cool' to the new associates (non-Californians). These were people with regular lives, and zero interest in special political agendas.
The intellectual crowd were bound and determined to be 'right', and if you weren't going in their direction....then you were anti-intellectual (plain definition: stupid).
If you had suggested thirty years ago that San Francisco would develop into a community like this, most people would have laughed at you. Yet, all of the little conditions fell into place, and it's become an odd 'pit' for those who attempt to survive there.
In some way, it's become a tribal-land where the tribe is enforcing it's perception upon anyone who attempts to reside or function there. You have to wonder where this is going to end up in twenty years.
Friday, 21 December 2018
US Troops Out of Afghanistan Story
Shocker? No. President Trump pulled another rabbit out of the hat and triggered the Secretary of Defense to react....announcing his exit.
So what's the end-story to Afghanistan?
Back in August, someone sat and added up the total cost of the Afghan war, the rebuilding stage, the continual 'baby-sitting' cost, and came to around $1.07-trillion (yes, trillion) dollars. In fact, around two weeks ago....three characters who were deep into some contract deal with the Pentagon were brought up on charges....involving an Afghan project and massive corruption.
Are we any nearer to peace in Afghanistan? No. Have we fallen into the rut that the Soviets fell into? Not quiet, but it's obvious that we aren't getting anywhere.
Did the Pentagon get the long-term strategy wrong? The Pentagon, from 9-11 to this week....felt some obligation to 'bring' peace to Afghanistan. The term 'bring' is questionable but on paper....there were various formulas and devices to construct some 'better' Afghanistan.
Trump's view? I think he looked at the money spent and asked the question....you spent a trillion dollars and what do you have to show for it? It's not a pleasant answer. Mattis? In his view, we were always at some point where people felt things would turn and go into a more positive direction. The problem is that this was an everlasting 'curve'....you just never saw this great positive direction.
The 3,000 US troops left now? Most will fall into the category of trainers. It's not the end of all US support, but I think money-wise, this is an indication that we just aren't going to waste billions more on the country.
So what's the end-story to Afghanistan?
Back in August, someone sat and added up the total cost of the Afghan war, the rebuilding stage, the continual 'baby-sitting' cost, and came to around $1.07-trillion (yes, trillion) dollars. In fact, around two weeks ago....three characters who were deep into some contract deal with the Pentagon were brought up on charges....involving an Afghan project and massive corruption.
Are we any nearer to peace in Afghanistan? No. Have we fallen into the rut that the Soviets fell into? Not quiet, but it's obvious that we aren't getting anywhere.
Did the Pentagon get the long-term strategy wrong? The Pentagon, from 9-11 to this week....felt some obligation to 'bring' peace to Afghanistan. The term 'bring' is questionable but on paper....there were various formulas and devices to construct some 'better' Afghanistan.
Trump's view? I think he looked at the money spent and asked the question....you spent a trillion dollars and what do you have to show for it? It's not a pleasant answer. Mattis? In his view, we were always at some point where people felt things would turn and go into a more positive direction. The problem is that this was an everlasting 'curve'....you just never saw this great positive direction.
The 3,000 US troops left now? Most will fall into the category of trainers. It's not the end of all US support, but I think money-wise, this is an indication that we just aren't going to waste billions more on the country.
Thursday, 20 December 2018
US Troops Out of Syria Story
Shocker huh?
Well....when was the last time you heard about some ISIS guys taking control of cities in Syria? What a year, at least? Recruitment in Europe to get dimwits to go and join the ISIS war? That grounded to a halt as well?
So why were we there for the past 12 months? Mostly because of the Kurdish situation. Is there any reason for the US to protect the Kurds? No.
And why did the Pentagon feel some urge to save the Kurds? From what? A massive Turkish invasion?
The more you piece together this future in Syria, with the Kurd mix, the Iranians, the Russians, and the Turks....the less wise, this entire game became. Those idiots with the Pentagon wanting US troops to stay? They wanted a vast conflict boiling over and creating the perfect Bush-like storm to require Pentagon services. Trump said no....we have no purpose left to accomplish, end of the story.
It was that simple. And all this hype by CNN now? Yeah.....they are engaging in misinformation and guiding you to another Bush-like war zone.
Well....when was the last time you heard about some ISIS guys taking control of cities in Syria? What a year, at least? Recruitment in Europe to get dimwits to go and join the ISIS war? That grounded to a halt as well?
So why were we there for the past 12 months? Mostly because of the Kurdish situation. Is there any reason for the US to protect the Kurds? No.
And why did the Pentagon feel some urge to save the Kurds? From what? A massive Turkish invasion?
The more you piece together this future in Syria, with the Kurd mix, the Iranians, the Russians, and the Turks....the less wise, this entire game became. Those idiots with the Pentagon wanting US troops to stay? They wanted a vast conflict boiling over and creating the perfect Bush-like storm to require Pentagon services. Trump said no....we have no purpose left to accomplish, end of the story.
It was that simple. And all this hype by CNN now? Yeah.....they are engaging in misinformation and guiding you to another Bush-like war zone.
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