2021 and Joe

 At this point, unless some reversal of fate occurs with Arizona or Wisconsin....I'd say the election seems lost for Trump.  You add the Penn, NC and Georgia numbers, and Joe Biden will have just enough to win this.  So the future and how 2021 looks:

1.  State of the Union speech?  At least five different things will occur which will suggest Joe has dementia.  Nothing will be said by any analyst....even the Fox regular guys will just skip it.

2.  The wild budget bill for 2021?  McConnell will tell Joe and Nancy....it won't happen, start carving off the figures, and the added taxes.  This 'act' will continue until mid-July when some lite-spending bill is offered for a marginal period of time.

3.  Dementia for 2021?  As European leaders come in and want to share their thrills over Joe being there....most will return to Europe shaking their heads.  Gossip by March will have started up and then the EU realizes that Joe probably won't be around for more than twelve months.  

Joe traveling in 2021?  There might be two or three international trips planned for the first quarter, but the rest-time required for Joe to 'perform'....will make the accomplishments marginal at best.

Nancy Pelosi will have private meetings with the VP in June and July....to discuss the idea of getting Joe to retire from office by December.   In the same meeting.....replacement VP will be openly discussed, and I'd expect Cuomo (NY Governor).  The problem here?  The Senate and House both have a vote over the replacement VP.  I see two to three Republicans crossing the line....to make this occur.

4.  Mention of Joe after he leaves office?  No.  Within 30 days....virtually no network news team (even Fox) will discuss Joe Biden.  

5.  Hunter?  Well....he's got around six to nine months of real production left, and when Joe leaves....that's the end of the golden goose.

Hunter's laptop?  It's given back to him from the FBI....all investigations are ended by the end of February.  No charges.

Hunter will end up on some serious drug activity over the next three years.

6.  Saving NY City and California from financial disaster?  The Senate will quietly refuse.  The speed-up of people exiting both areas?  No doubt.

7.  How this will all be explained to people?  I don't think historians will chat about it over the next decade.  It'll be like the triggers to the depression era....just never openly discussed.

8. The economy?  Taxes can't go up....if the GOP holds to it's promises.  Some type of dynamic increase on industry alone?  It'll be rough enough to scare some companies into moving operations beyond the US shores.

China and Europe?  Back on good standing, and the GDP goes to marginal numbers above zero.  Unemployment starts to edge back up by the end of 2021.  

Life will go on but a fair number of people will linger over what existed in 2017 to 2019.  

9.  Comics?  Well....they are the big folks screwed.  You just can't make jokes over dementia folks.  So political humor will virtually disappear over the next twelve months.  

10.  TV news?  Fox, CNN and MSNBC are destined for the next twelve months to lose around 30 to 40 percent of their audience.  

11. Joe's attempt to fill the next Supreme Court judge with a Democrat-leaner?  I don't see it going well.  Maybe three GOP folks will cross over, but it'll be obvious that it harmed their careers.  

12.  The 'Green Deal'?  Forget about it passing until 2023.

Greenland in EC?

 Someone did the Electoral College up...to include Greenland votes, if they were 'bought' by Trump.

Most folks will laugh but Greenland would be entitled to Senators, and probably 2 to 3 House members.  They might vote pro-Trump....well, in a fantasy world.

Expectation of Tuesday Evening

After much reflection, three things I expect:

1.  No more than 20 states able to declare a winner by midnight.  

2.  Even by Friday night (6th), at least eight states still unable to declare a winner.

3.  Trump will top the 270 number around by the 9th of November, with five states (minimum) still unable to declare a winner.  Once you see Florida, Minn, Wis, and Michigan counted as Trump-wins.....the 270 number is pretty guaranteed. 

So, it serves no purpose to stay up late on the 2nd, or to get up early on the 3rd.  News journalists trying to whip up hype?  Why?  You might as well turn over to Bonanza or Gilligan's Island that evening, and not get all hyped. 

The f**ked-up nature of this election will be discussed for a decade, and various 'players' in the scheme....from the Post Office people, to county clerks having 3k dead people on their poll listings....will be left to explain this to state and federal audit folks.  

What I'd Change on the Supreme Court

 Over the past month, I've reflected a good bit over the Supreme Court and think it's probably time to make some changes.  My four:

1.  Once 'elected' to the position on the court, it's for a 10-year term, and then you retire, period.  Lifetime appointments come to end.  

2.  Maximum age upon appointment?  Sixty.  To be precise....60 years and 364 days of age upon nomination.  

3.  A total of ten members on the court, with one person always held as a reserve judge.

4.  Upon death or retirement, an absolute understanding that the seat will be filled within 60 days.  The 'reserve' member would ensure a nine-member court is always in the game-plan.  The President will nominate someone within seven days of the death/retirement.  The Senate must meet within 14 days to start the process (with some Xmas/Thanksgiving exemption).  

Urban View

 In the past, I've worked with people who lived most of their lives as kids in major urban centers (Philly, Chicago, NY City), and they would make the comment that they couldn't live in a city of less than 500k residents.  

I worked with a contractor at Ramstein, who arrived and became fairly disenchanted with the local town (K-town) because it just wasn't that 'big' (100k residents)....that it lacked cultural events....that it didn't have much of anything to do. 

I've always been at the other end of the spectrum....living around a small area of 300 residents is mighty fine, and just as interesting as the enchanted cities of Seattle or Dallas.  

I've felt that way as I travel across Europe.  There might be some pluses in cities like Rome, Den Haag, or Munich. But the smaller towns have character and charm as well.  

Lately, with all the chaos focused on cities like NY, Minneapolis, Seattle or Portland....I see less and less reasons to be urban-charmed.  You give up some element of safety and security, without anything to be gained.  

An end-point?  No.

Signatures

 I noticed today....federal judge got into the middle of a mail-in-vote situation....where a state had a rule, if your mail-in-vote papers arrive, and it doesn't match the signature on file....it was NOT accepted.  Judge said 'no'....you can't do that.

I sat and pondered over that.

From August of 1977 to now....I've probably signed around sixty-thousand signatures.  Just in Air Force boot-camp (six weeks)....I would estimate that I signed my signature at least four-hundred times.

I signed the meal rooster three times a day.  Every occasion that they gave me something....even a hat....I had to sign for it.  The eight-hour pass into San Antonio?  You had to sign for it.  The weeks after boot-camp in Wichita Falls?  You had to sign into the class each morning, plus the three meals of the day, and if there were any documents created....you had to sign them.  

The stupid AF form 341?  The disciplinary form for screwing up?  It had a nice block at the bottom where Sarge had to sign....with his explanation on how you screwed up.

On a daily basis, from the 1990 era to 2013....I probably signed at least ten times a day, and on some occasions....it probably went near sixty times in a single day.

Even now in retired status?  Whenever the FEDEX guy comes by....I have to sign for those stupid packages.  

So if you went back and analyzed all sixty-thousand....would there be much difference?  Somewhere in the early 1980s.....I developed one single change on a letter.  Other than that....it's the same signature for sixty-thousand occasions.  

I'm not really buying into the judge's order or his sense into this.  Either the signature is the same one on file....or it's not.  If there is some conflict....call the call up on the number listed for his home, and ask him to show up and sign once again.  If it doesn't match to what is on the envelop....call the cops and report the guy for fraud. 

Observations

 1.  Maybe you know this....maybe not.  On Roe versus Wade (1973)....which liberals often want to hype up.....only went in this direction because three Republicans on the bench crossed over and agree with four liberal judges.  Shocker?  Just something to think about.

2.  This whole riot business in Philly?  All based on a black guy who'd had mental issues for most of his life.  How'd the police get called?  An older member of the family was in fear of her life.  

The comment that police need to be trained to react correctly?  I'd suggest that they just drive up....lock the doors to their car and use the speaker to get his attention to come out.  If he kills the relative?  At least the guy is still alive, and the police are alive.

Here's the thing you need to think about....there's probably over 500 people in Philly who are crazy-crazy, and ought to be locked in a facility.  All it takes is one good argument to set them off......with the cops pulling up and another incident starting up.  

3.  Postal clerk getting federal felony charges for messing around with 100-plus absentee ballots.  Real jail....probably more than ten years.  

4.  Hunter Biden, in five years?  I see him basically broke, and begging Dad for an allowance of $10k a month to survive.