At the End of This Mess

 After a fair amount of pondering....I've come to three observations about the future of politics in the US....no matter who wins this election:

1.  Roughly fifty to sixty percent of the nation will be coming to the conclusion over the next twelve months that the election system is crapped out and unable to function  (as advertised).  

Blame will set upon various county officials, state political folks, news people, judges, and the national party system (both parties).  

'Banana Republic' will be uttered a great deal.  

2.  Right-leaners still voting with the Republicans?  I think a fair number of people will gaze at Fox News, and twenty-odd Republicans in the House and Senate....to say they more or less wanted Trump 'moved-on'. 

A third-party discussion will start up.  It might take three to four years, but I expect a full-up conservative party to exist by 2024, and mount some candidate.  Maybe he'll only get 12-percent of the national vote.  Maybe he only gets fifteen Electoral College votes.  But it'll the beginning of the end for the GOP.

The same occurring for the Democratic or left-leaners?  Maybe.  The Green Party already exists.  But there's probably room for non-urban Democratic Party....especially in the south.

3.  Finally, you can just sense an enormous amount of propaganda being dished-out on a daily basis.  You get propaganda via your local TV network, some local sports talk-show host, your local minister, your neighbor, your local school PTA 'bosses', and forty-odd individuals.  

Maybe it was marginally done back in the 1980s, but at the current pace of things....people are likely to start backing away from 'trust' and start to question virtually everything they see.  That's not exactly a good thing.

Observations

 1.  Two years ago, if you'd told me that the US might elect a dementia guy, with strong ties to money-laundering folks in Russia, China, and the Ukraine....and that his son was crackhead who was hired to arrange appointments for 'dad'....then telling me that his Vice would be a gal who moved up in her 20s by kneepad action for SF political figures....then I would have laughed and said it was BS.

2.  Jeff Bezos selling 3 billion dollars of Amazon stock?  Maybe setting things up to buy CNN?

3.  Hygiene teams wandering shopping districts in Germany.....hyping up good habits on avoiding Covid-19.

4.  If polls are this screwed up....why would we listen to them?

5.  Reflecting upon Fox News....it's probably time to dump them  News Max, ONE, and First TV....probably better choices.  

6. ESPN laying off 300 employees.  Maybe if they'd stuck to sports over the past three years....those folks would still be there.

7.  Trump won 45-percent of Latino vote in Florida.  

Puerto Rican State Status?

 One of the little things not openly discussed yesterday, from voting on Tuesday....the ballot on going for statehood in Puerto Rico occurred.  

The public voted 52 percent to go for statehood.

If you look at public opinion polls...up until mid-summer 2020....most islanders were neutral.  Since August?  It's gone to around 50-percent.

Next step?  They'd have to approach Congress and submit the paperwork.  What would they get?  Two Senators, and somewhere around five Representatives.  

Happening in 2021?  I would have my doubts.  It was marginally in 'yes' area.  The House delaying this for a minimum of two years?  Absolutely.  

The only situation?  Well....NO.  You see...Guam is approaching this same idea, with the adjacent area of the Mariana Islands wanting to be part of the package.  The Mariana group?  About 100 miles NE of Guam.  Population of the two?  Around 240k.  So they'd get the two Senators, but only get one single Representative.  

That's it?  NO.  You also have the DC statehood crowd, and they'd like to achieve status as well.  They'd get two Senators and one Representative.  

Likely nature of this?  Within ten years, I could see all three achieving this.  Is there room for six more Senators in the Senate floor?  That might be an issue.  Which states would give up seven House seats?  You'd be developing a huge mess for clean-up later.  

The Only Path Left

 For Trump, the path left is readily apparent.

His lawyers have to go and find various discrepancies throughout the system (not just one state, but probably five to ten states).  Upon presenting everything to the Supreme Court, the discussion will be....you have to throw out the count in these states. 

Once you admit fifty-odd EC votes don't exist....neither Joe Biden or Donald Trump can be elected via the Electoral College.  End of the game for that process.

So we progress to the House election method....the 3rd of January.  New House Speaker elected (likely to be Democrats in control).  I would question if Pelosi gets confirmed for another period.

Marginal efforts to occur for three weeks, and President Trump's era will close with no vote.  House Speaker would then assume the post because of the delays, with the Supreme Court ordering the Speaker (or replacement) to finally end this game and have the state-by-state vote.  26 will vote for Trump, and the 'game' ends.

For one brief day....the Speaker will likely serve as the President to make his or her point.

As comical as the scenario is....it's likely the path ahead.  So the game of getting a replacement judge on the Supreme Court was a necessary one.  

Civil war coming in mid-to-late January?  Yes.  The State-of-the-Union message?  Done mostly to a half-empty room.  Seattle, Minneapolis, Portland, and a dozen other cities on fire?  Probably.  

2021 and Joe

 At this point, unless some reversal of fate occurs with Arizona or Wisconsin....I'd say the election seems lost for Trump.  You add the Penn, NC and Georgia numbers, and Joe Biden will have just enough to win this.  So the future and how 2021 looks:

1.  State of the Union speech?  At least five different things will occur which will suggest Joe has dementia.  Nothing will be said by any analyst....even the Fox regular guys will just skip it.

2.  The wild budget bill for 2021?  McConnell will tell Joe and Nancy....it won't happen, start carving off the figures, and the added taxes.  This 'act' will continue until mid-July when some lite-spending bill is offered for a marginal period of time.

3.  Dementia for 2021?  As European leaders come in and want to share their thrills over Joe being there....most will return to Europe shaking their heads.  Gossip by March will have started up and then the EU realizes that Joe probably won't be around for more than twelve months.  

Joe traveling in 2021?  There might be two or three international trips planned for the first quarter, but the rest-time required for Joe to 'perform'....will make the accomplishments marginal at best.

Nancy Pelosi will have private meetings with the VP in June and July....to discuss the idea of getting Joe to retire from office by December.   In the same meeting.....replacement VP will be openly discussed, and I'd expect Cuomo (NY Governor).  The problem here?  The Senate and House both have a vote over the replacement VP.  I see two to three Republicans crossing the line....to make this occur.

4.  Mention of Joe after he leaves office?  No.  Within 30 days....virtually no network news team (even Fox) will discuss Joe Biden.  

5.  Hunter?  Well....he's got around six to nine months of real production left, and when Joe leaves....that's the end of the golden goose.

Hunter's laptop?  It's given back to him from the FBI....all investigations are ended by the end of February.  No charges.

Hunter will end up on some serious drug activity over the next three years.

6.  Saving NY City and California from financial disaster?  The Senate will quietly refuse.  The speed-up of people exiting both areas?  No doubt.

7.  How this will all be explained to people?  I don't think historians will chat about it over the next decade.  It'll be like the triggers to the depression era....just never openly discussed.

8. The economy?  Taxes can't go up....if the GOP holds to it's promises.  Some type of dynamic increase on industry alone?  It'll be rough enough to scare some companies into moving operations beyond the US shores.

China and Europe?  Back on good standing, and the GDP goes to marginal numbers above zero.  Unemployment starts to edge back up by the end of 2021.  

Life will go on but a fair number of people will linger over what existed in 2017 to 2019.  

9.  Comics?  Well....they are the big folks screwed.  You just can't make jokes over dementia folks.  So political humor will virtually disappear over the next twelve months.  

10.  TV news?  Fox, CNN and MSNBC are destined for the next twelve months to lose around 30 to 40 percent of their audience.  

11. Joe's attempt to fill the next Supreme Court judge with a Democrat-leaner?  I don't see it going well.  Maybe three GOP folks will cross over, but it'll be obvious that it harmed their careers.  

12.  The 'Green Deal'?  Forget about it passing until 2023.

Greenland in EC?

 Someone did the Electoral College up...to include Greenland votes, if they were 'bought' by Trump.

Most folks will laugh but Greenland would be entitled to Senators, and probably 2 to 3 House members.  They might vote pro-Trump....well, in a fantasy world.

Expectation of Tuesday Evening

After much reflection, three things I expect:

1.  No more than 20 states able to declare a winner by midnight.  

2.  Even by Friday night (6th), at least eight states still unable to declare a winner.

3.  Trump will top the 270 number around by the 9th of November, with five states (minimum) still unable to declare a winner.  Once you see Florida, Minn, Wis, and Michigan counted as Trump-wins.....the 270 number is pretty guaranteed. 

So, it serves no purpose to stay up late on the 2nd, or to get up early on the 3rd.  News journalists trying to whip up hype?  Why?  You might as well turn over to Bonanza or Gilligan's Island that evening, and not get all hyped. 

The f**ked-up nature of this election will be discussed for a decade, and various 'players' in the scheme....from the Post Office people, to county clerks having 3k dead people on their poll listings....will be left to explain this to state and federal audit folks.